If you are assigned to be a member of the regime: What options do you have to stay in power in the face of a popular challenge to your rule? When would you choose one option over another? What do you think the experiences of the Arab spring teach us about the costs and benefits of those options?
If you are assigned to be a revolutionary: What options do you have if you want to remove a regime? When would you choose one option over another? What do you think the experiences of the Arab spring teach us about the costs and benefits of those options?
There are two types of dictators in the Middle East. The ones that are propped up by the west(Mubarak)and those are against western imperial influence (Qaddafi).
I Choose to be Qaddafi:
My dear citizens you need to realize that the popular uprising is an act of the Western imperialist who want to take away the oil wealth that belongs to the citizens of this country. I have enabled you to get free electricity, education, interest free loans…things that democracy could never give you. The West led by the US wants to enslave you in their system …you tell them and “other visitors, that you needed “democracy” and “freedom” never realizing it was a cut throat system, where the biggest dog eats the rest, but they were enchanted with those words, never realizing that in America, there was no free medicine, no free hospitals, no free housing, no free education and no free food, except when people had to beg or go to long lines to get soup.”
You clearly do not know what is good for you…I am the son of Nasser and I will make sure you, my children, will never fall into the imperialist hands. I will fight to the bitter end to make sure of that. Do not go to the street or you will be considered an ‘american’!
To start with a quick aside: were I able to attend class today, my plan would have been to preempt any potential revolution with pizza for all at the expense of my country’s treasury (this might have involved groveling at the feet of several members of the Poli Sci Department). However, that is probably not a legitimate response to the posting, so I also offer other ideas.
I have several options to try and stay in power. I could call in overwhelming security forces to suppress any potential uprising (like in Algeria). I could call in security forces to violently put down an uprising (like Bahrain). I could try and promise gradual reform (Yemen and Egypt), I could do nothing and see what transpires (Libya), or I could try and persuade my populace that revolt is not worth it (Saudi Arabia). Both making promises of gradual reform, and doing nothing seem to be very poor ideas based what has happened in Yemen, Egypt, and Libya. Giving ground to protesters seems to encourage them, and doing nothing seems to provoke them, so neither would be my strategy of choice. Either preempting protests with an overwhelming show of force or massive popular coercion seems to be the best option. My proclivities as a dictator lead me to favor the overwhelming show of force, and to this regard my strategy might be to field several times more riot police than there are protesters. If I can stop protests from starting, I may be able to prevent the country from reaching the “tipping point” of mass popular protests. I would, however, not just want to suppress my population. I can make speeches to the effect that mass protests will not help the country. Why would my poor countrymen want to turn our wonderful land into another Egypt or Yemen, with mass uncertainty or a looming civil war? If protests do not start, than in a few months I can thank my population with tax breaks, payoffs, or even regional elections. I acknowledge that my time as absolute dictator may be coming to a close and it is time to move to a presidency with at least a modicum of popular legitimacy. However, by far the most important thing is to prevent protests now, and for my country to come through this episode looking strong both internally and externally.
The removal of regimes in the Middle East is no easy feat. Whenever regimes have been toppled, they have been replaced by leaders who promise much but instead resort to the same policies and sometimes worsen the situation of the people. In order to defeat a regime, large amount of popular support is needed. It has to be a popular emotion, not a movement limited to fringe or radical elements. That being said, revolution can either take a nonviolent path as has occurred in Tunisia and Egypt, or it can become violent as occurred in Libya.
In order to establish a nonviolent solution, discontent must be widespread. In order to do this, the regime must be seen as an instrument of oppression as well as unresponsive to the social demands of a population. As shown by the restraint of the Tunisian military in attacking protestors, enough popular support will make key security forces think twice about using violence to repress movements. Military support or at least neutrality to the revolution is crucial. International support is also a big factor in this. U.S. and French refusal to support Ben Ali was crucial in consolidating the revolution and preventing a prolonging of tension between the State and the people.
Violence sometimes becomes the second option. This occurs when the intransigence of the leader is so great, that the only answer is a prolonged conflict. Libya’s fight was devastating, but it seemed to be the only way to take Qaddafi away from power, since the Libyan state essentially centered on him. There were significant defections, and only the most loyal to him continued to fight the rebels. In this case, NATO air support probably helped to lessen the conflict; although it is doubtful whether this should be the standard. Popular revolutions receive the most support when they are indigenous.
The first option is obviously more favorable to revolutions, because it will ease the transition to political change. Prolonged conflict will only destabilize society even more. Even if popular support in certain countries is not strong enough to challenge the state without violence, broad regional support from post-revolution states and momentum can bolster the option of non-violent revolution.
Supreme Leaders, delegates of the senate, and my esteemed country-fellows: a tragedy has occurred… which started right here with the murmurings of revolution… and has now engulfed our entire nation… on the brink of chaos.
You are my people and I your devoted servant. I have led this country with only the noblest of intentions and a pure heart since my father passed me the reigns of power more than 20 years ago. In that time we have achieved much together. I come here today having heard your demands for freedom. I have felt the soul of our nation cry for reform, and today, I have come to answer those calls.
In six months time, our country will hold free elections. I am confident that a country as great as ours will vote in favor of those who possess the insight, pedigree and fortitude necessary to lead our nation to new heights. I therefore announce the creation of two parties: the Glory to the State party and the National Democratic Part and extend my full endorsement to my two right hand men, your leaders of the Supreme Leader’s advisory council. They will receive my unlimited support and resources in their campaign for victory. Other parties are of course welcome; all must register with the Election Commission (to be formed by me later this month) and will receive notification of the strict campaign guidelines that must be followed in order to ensure free and fair elections.
I further proclaim that electoral votes shall be assigned to districts on a basis of their past participation in government. Voting districts will be specially designed to ensure that those with the most to contribute to the political process will have their voices heard.
Let me be clear; I am not abandoning you as your faithful leader. Elections will establish a legislature that will represent your interests in government. All decisions passed by the legislature will then be forwarded to the Monarchy for approval.
Today marks a historic moment for our nation. I have no doubt that we can accomplish much in the coming months under my vision of our glorious future.
As a revolutionary, I have a few options. I can either work within the government, in whatever non-powerful role the regime lets me play, or I can stay outside of the government and try to inspire a mass revolt. However, that latter option is risky, particularly if the government is willing to crack down on my organization. In that case, the costs of protesting may be too high—and I will work out a deal with the regime and try to make my case for change within the government’s political institutions. (Syria is particularly interesting, however. Most opposition groups have refused to talk with the government, despite the regime’s brutal crackdown.)
But if the military is unwilling or unable to crack down on my organization, I will stay outside the government and try to get a revolt going. I will use social media to get my message out to the people, and organize large demonstrations, which will show that a huge segment, not just a tiny fraction, of the citizenry wants change.
Ideally, the government will switch between carrot and stick approaches. If it represses harshly, people will be angry. And if the government suddenly draws back, people will not be afraid about expressing that anger on the street. In both Tunisia and Egypt, the leaders tried to quash the rebellions with harsh and then conciliatory measures. Needless to say, for both regimes, that did not work.
To my fellow countrymen and women,
The time has come to call an end to the authoritarian regime that has ruled this country for years. We are not weak peoples, we must demand freedom and call the regime to account for its corruption. We can no longer pretend that the status quo is acceptable. We must demand free and fair elections, better schools and health care, clean government and economic opportunity. We must aim to remain a united opposition, mobilize the streets, gain international recognition, and take the time to organize ourselves into viable political parties (Shehata 148). In order to remove the regime, we must decide who will lead the revolution and by what means. In Tunisia and Egypt, it was young, mostly middle-class peaceful activists that pushed for the removal of former rulers, while in Libya, the opposition was comprised of fighters associated with families and regional clans. We must develop a strategy to oust the current regime in regards to our particular country’s history and circumstances. Moreover, we must be strategic in our use of social media to organize and promote the message of revolutionaries. If our country is fairly uncensored when it comes to free speech (like in Egypt), then we do not have to take as much precaution than in a country where the regime will hunt those posting anti-regime messages on twitter or facebook (like in Bahrain). This is something to keep in mind as we continue to communicate and gain international support using these mediums.
In order to remove this regime, it is vital that we stage massive non-violent protests. Let us learn from our brothers in Tunisia by observing how they overthrew Ben Ali in the “Jasmine Revolution” using largely peaceful means. We see from the Egyptian example that when the regime responds to peaceful protests with violent means, this hurts the military’s legitimacy and influence, which is why the Egyptian army broke with Mubarak. Yet, taking to the streets is not enough to induce real change. First, we must build civil society and create a strong political party in opposition to the regime. We cannot allow the military and state bureaucracy to remain in control and dictate the terms of our country’s politics once we remove the dictator. Therefore, we must establish a political base that can serve as a credible alternative to the current regime. The forces that are to stage our revolution must remain united and organized, which may include Islamists, secularists, liberals and leftists. While removing the regime it is important to remember that if we divide, we die.