This is your last posting of the year for this class (sigh).
What do you think will be the top 5 big political issues in the region 10 years from today? How will this differ from what you think the biggest issues are today?
12 thoughts on “Week 13”
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1. Arab-Israeli Conflict: Both sides of this issue have been debating for years now and while both sides agree there needs to be change and compensations need to be made, neither side is willing to make such compensations. Palestine will keep pushing for international recognition and Israel will keep ignoring them. Especially since it’s an issue of changing some religious definitions, I think this conflict will take more than ten years to resolve.
2. Oil dependency and resource wars: There will still be tensions in ten years with Middle Eastern countries controlling the precious oil that every country, especially the US, is interested in. Although we are developing alternative resources for energy, such alternative means will not completely phase out our need for oil in the next ten years. In addition, I think the issue of water as a disappearing resource is a huge problem as well. I’ll be interested to see if water actually runs out as planned, along with the international intervention that would result, bringing me to my next point.
3. United States involvement: I think the United States will still be involved in the Middle East, whether it be promoting democracy, trying to help out Yemen, or trying to keep a hand in the oil jar. While many Middle Eastern countries look down upon our intervention within the region, I think governments will still be calling on us for help in ten years as well.
4. Radical Islam: I think this will be a larger political issue in ten years because of how fast the group has mobilized. With all of these countries moving away from authoritarian regimes, technology has allowed these radical groups to come together and gain power and influence in their countries.
5. Political transitions: With countries such as Libya who need to start from scratch, different groups will be in the race for obtaining power within their upcoming governments. With so many different points of view, those experiencing civil war and political turmoil will find it hard to maintain a stable government without facing the cycle of coup after coup that has become normal throughout the region.
1. US/Western relations with the Middle East
With Islam on a rise, the continued threat of a nuclear Iran and shifting economic priorities, the United States’ stake in the Middle East will be the focus of much of the political discourse over the next decade.
2. Arab-Israeli Conflict
Considering the fact that the Arab-Israeli conflict has been a dominant feature of Middle Eastern politics for the better part of the century, and that the conflict is as entrenched as it ever has, I doubt that this issue will be resolved in ten years time. Regional hostility to Israel will keep it on the defensive and the historical memory of grievances on each side will continue to impede negotiations.
3. Oil
As the rest of the world (slowly!) shifts away from oil dependency, to finding other sources of energy, the oil-producing countries of the Middle East will find themselves losing their main source of revenue. As this happens and authoritarian governments can no longer provide for their people, we will see more popular uprisings and a shifting of Middle Eastern economies toward other sources of income.
4. The ability of Arab-Spring countries to transition
How successful countries like Tunisia, Egypt and Libya are at transition post-Arab Spring will play an important role in Middle Eastern politics throughout the next decade. As the Arab Spring illustrated, the demonstration effect is particularly strong in the region. This will hold true for the transitioning process as well. Therefore, the successes or failures of each country will play a significant role on the attempted transitions of other countries in the region.
5. Radical Islam
As resources become scarce in Arab countries like Yemen and as popular uprisings translate into more prominent Islamist actors on the political stage, radical Islam will continue to become an important part of Middle Eastern politics.
Arab-Israeli conflict
Libyan civil war
Southern Sudanese succession from the North
Islamism
Resource management
I think that resource management, the Arab-Israeli conflict, and Islamism will be the more salient issues out of the 5 because of their longstanding presence, as well as transnational relevance. Due to the Arab Spring, international attention is even more focused on politics in the region, for that reason the international community will gauge the effectiveness of the movement based on the political influences. Islamism will probably be harshly critiqued if it maintains to be a present force in politics. Arab-Israeli conflicts will remain important because of the tension that the Israeli presence holds. Resource management will definitely be important in the coming years. Oil dependence is the primary reason that resources will remain important. I think that the future of Libya will remain an important issue internationally due to foreign involvement in rejecting Ghaddafi, if Libya remains unstable NATO and other actors may be harshly criticized. Sudan is of personal interest to me, and particularly the creation of a southern Sudanese state has intrigued me. I think that the future of Sudan is so much more difficult to predict now. I’m interested to see if al-Bashir will fulfill his promises to work in conjunction with the new southern state, as well as how the two states will manage the revenue from oil exports.
On December 9, 2021 I believe the Middle East will face five very important issues. Please note, that I have left the Israeli-Palestinian conflict OUT of my ten year projection. I am not yet prepared to comment on the direction of this dispute, but I believe that between 2011 and 2021, there will either be a 3rd intifada, financed by Egypt, that will result in Israeli concessions OR a 3rd party mediator, other than the Untied States, will be involved. I do not think this will still be a source of violent conflict in ten years. (I know, that may be too optimistic…)
1. WATER and the ENERGY PARADIGM
In ten years, Yemen, Jordan and Egypt will all be facing a severe water crisis.
Jordan: Given Jordan’s relative stability, I believe that either the World Bank, Israel (seeking a regional ally in a time of increasing isolationism) or China will finance the development of the Red-Dead Canal to pump water from the Red Sea to Amman. In the meantime, Jordan will rely on the Disi Aquifer to satisfy national water demands. This mega-project requires a HUGE amount of energy which will either put Jordan in debt–if they rely on oil, as prices rise in response to scarcity–or Jordan will be the first country to figure out how to desalinate water using hydroelectric power by using the elevation of the Dead Sea to its kinetic advantage.
Yemen: Yemen does not have the luxury of stability. I believe they will either succeed political sovereignty to Saudi Arabia or form a very tight alliance with SA to capitalize on Saudi oil wealth and existing desalinization facilities. Saudi Arabia will welcome this partnership in exchange for access to another seaport in Aden and increased border security.
Egypt: Egypt’s population is growing at an alarming rate. According to projections, Egypt will have almost 96 million people by 2021, straining water, food and energy resources. I believe Egypt will face water distribution problems, as the Nile Delta becomes overpopulated. This will also put the country in danger of future epidemics. Egypt will first turn to hydroelectric on the Nile River, but as this becomes increasingly overdrawn it will provide an increasingly less efficient source of water/energy.
2. OIL
Unfortunately, oil will still play a large role in the regional political economy. Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait and the UAE will still be able to balance growing populations against increasing resource scarcity and they will become the financiers of a growing Arab economic bloc. Iran will be tied to Syria and Lebanon, while the Gulf States will adopt Jordan, and perhaps Palestine.
Iraq–I believe oil reserves in Northern Iraq will continue to give the Kurds increased political leverage. In ten years from now, I believe Iraq the current prime minister of Iraq’s fragile parliamentary democracy will be Sunni and he will have secured hegemonic power over the state apparatus. However, this leader will be forced to recognized other national parties, offering political representation proportional to regional oil wealth. It will be tense.
3. RELIGIOUS EXTREMISM
Religious extremism is on the rise.
Israel–In ten years, Israel will be an ‘official Jewish state’ with an increasing cacophony of political voices. Israel’s parliament will continue to become increasingly right-wing, with members of an increasingly radical orthodox constituency gaining greater political voice. This right-wing group may become violent, especially in light of Iran’s growing power, but it will not be the mainstream dialogue of Israel. Israel’s ‘99%’ –based in my generation of secular Israelis–will continue advocate for Palestinian independence and human rights. While domestic politics will be internally divided, the Israeli military apparatus will be strong than ever. Israel will face increasing regional isolationism–with pressure from Egypt, Turkey and Iran on the Palestinian cause. There will be two paths: religious extremism and conflict between right-wing Israelis and rising Arab hegemons or a third intifada, financed by Islamic groups from Egypt and Iran.
Egypt, Libya and Iran will all have incorporated more hardline Islamic dialogue into their national ideology. Yemen will be under international pressure to expel Al Qaeda.
4. RISE OF THE ARAB LEAGUE
The Arab states will no longer ‘look West’ for inspiration. In ten years, the United States will be held with less international regard; China, Japan and India will be increasingly recognized for their successful economic expansion. In light of this, the Arab League could take two routes. Egypt will lead an increasingly liberal, democratic faction towards development. This will include Morocco, Tunisia, and Jordan. I don’t know where the Gulf monarchies will be–more liberal, but still dynastic authoritarian regimes with increased popular participation. This group will be neutral towards the United States.
Another Arab bloc could develop with a stronger voice of Islamic hegemony. This will include Iran and whatever states are housing Al Qaeda (possibly Palestine too, if it is not free?) This will provide a counter balance to democracy and it will be a large security threat for the United States. I’m on the fence about where Lebanon will end up in the mix. In ten years, Lebanon could follow its European roots and democratize, or it could become increasingly aligned with Iran and it will look much like it does today, with a more pronounced, but peaceful, sectarian divide between religious groups.
5. NUCLEAR DETERRENCE + CYBER WARFARE
I believe there are going to be new international laws regarding the proliferation of nuclear weapons within the next ten years. To me, it seems inevitable that Iran or Israel will step forward with this technology before 2021. I HOPE that neither employs the weapons, but it will definitely be part of international dialogue. I think at least two other states, closely aligned with Iran, will also pop-up with nuclear technology.
The Arab Spring already demonstrated the power of Facebook and the internet as a source of collective action. I think Islamic groups will continue to leverage the power of cyber space to interfere with regional military operations (Drones? Information?) and further destabilize their relationship with the West. China could play a role here.
(1) Regional hegemon
At some point a regional hegemon will emerge, and very likely Iran. Its potential in nuclear weapons is yet to be seen – grids and uranium are the missing parts for now, but who knows if Iran can have them in hands within the next ten years. Iran just announced that it will inverse-engineer the RQ-170 spy plane that “accidentally” fell on its territory (did Iran manage to hack the plane in the first place??) – its the most advanced military spy plane in the U.S. that is 20 years ahead of Chinese and Russian ones. This clearly sends out a political message to the world; Iran is ambitious to become a regional hegemon. The bottom line, however, is that Iran needs to be open up to the West in the next 10 years, which involves a radical change in the regime. Unless the West is willing to support Iran to become the hegemon, Arab resistance in the region will attempt to balance out the power and a regional hegemony will be less likely to happen.
(2) Oil.
Resources define politics, especially in the Middle East. I am a believer in peak oil – Saudi Arabia, though historically the biggest producer, has been facing a decline in resource capacity (for details on peak oil theory, recommend Jared Diamond as a source). This will significantly shift the power distribution in the region, as well as the relationship between the ME and the international community.
(3) Authoritarianism with greater liberal reforms
The ultimate consequence of the Arab Spring, in my mind, is not direct democracy but a series of top-down liberalization launched by authoritarian regimes. After the revolutionary phase the autocrats feel the loss of their legitimacy, and liberalization is one of the vital means to help solidify their power base.
(4) Islamism
The political dialogue between the ME and the West in the past years has significantly shaped the region as culturally and politically Islamic. Islamism may voice up via opportunities created by liberal reforms, as mentioned earlier. Since Islamic groups have greater capacity to organize political participation among the population, they have a great advantage once given political opportunities.
(5) More integration with the international community
By that I mean non-U.S. countries. China will play a big role, and some European countries may face immigration pressures from the ME once demographic concerns urge them to open up to population inflows.
Perhaps I am an eternal optimist, but I think that in the next 10 years, the five main political issues in the Middle East and North Africa will have shifted from being the concerns of authoritarian regimes to the concerns of democratic ones. Given such a dynamic shift, I think the 5 big issues will be as follows.
-The assimilation of Islamist political parties and politicians into the global, democratic system
The US insists that groups like the Muslim Brotherhood are an international risk. However, the West is going to have to accept the reality; Islamist political parties are winning a majority of the elections in the new democratic experiences of the Middle East. Therefore, the foreign policy relationship between these Western leaders and their Muslim counterparts is going to be an important step in establishing the international role of the Middle East and North Africa.
-The redistribution of (oil) wealth
As countries democratize and liberalize, they are going to have to find a why to shore up their middle class. Nations with oil-based economies are going to be particularly pressed to find ways to create a productive polity and open up control of oil distribution and revenues.
-Consolidation of democratic values
As countries in the Middle East (hopefully) transition to democracy, they are going to need to decide what that looks like. What is an Islamic democracy? How are governments going to settle the grievances of previously oppressed or disenfranchised groups? What will the rights of women look like?
-The demilitarization of countries following violent conflict
Yemen, Libya, and Iraq have all faced or on the verge of facing high amounts of sectarian violence and civil conflict. These countries need to navigate the post-conflict period, insure that warring groups drop their arms, and determine the role of the military in all of this.
-The Arab-Israeli conflict
Unfortunately, I don’t see there being a quick resolution to this conflict, and I think it will still be on the table as a major regional concern in the next 10 years. However, I do have faith in the ability of the two sides to achieve true and sustainable peace eventually.
I really don’t want to be pessimistic, but the events of the past 9 months have sort of made me a pessimist.
The 5 biggest political issues in the Middle East in 10 years in no particular order will be.
1. The Arab Israeli conflict: with changing regional leaders and more Islamist leaders coming into power a lot of power politics will change. Syria which has been seen as an ally of the US might change and take a harder stance on the conflict.
2. 2nd wave of authoritarianism. with the arab Spring come and gone authoritarianism still endures in the Middle East.
3. The Libyan civil war. Escalating tribal tensions have led to a jostle for power and resources. Gaddafi constantly harnessed the power of the tribes in order to stay in power. These same tribes will want to be the dominant tribe now that he is out of power.
4. Resource scarcity. I think the food/water security will actually be a major issue in most Africa in ten years, even more so in North Africa and the Middle East. the reason this is politicized is because this leads to issues of national security and we might see some tensions between countries in the Middle East.
5. Oil. I don’t believe we would have changed radically enough to not use oil in 10 years, but a lot of countries want to be less dependent on the Middle East. It would be interesting to see how less dependence/ more dependence on oil will effect Middle East relations with the rest of the world. Furthermore, will they diversify and invest in other parts of the economy?
(In no particular order)
1. Resources.
A huge issue today, and one I can only imagine escalating. The widespread importance of oil suggests that this will continue to involve regional as well as international players, and increasing amounts of conflict As water and other resources are already scarce within the region, I image a shift for the worse in the next ten years, especially when adding the factor of climate change and the politics of access.
2. The Israeli Palestinian conflict.
As we can see today, this issue is far from being resolved. As there are so many hardliners on each side of the issue, I see no end in sight. The longevity of this conflict and the lack of compromise, or even amenable propositions, makes me think that tensions will only rise within the next ten years. The increasing international support for Palestinian claims, and Israel’s aggressive defensive stance, suggest growing instability within the larger region.
3. Islamism.
As many countries are currently in the process of transition from authoritarian regimes, the role of Islamist political groups is highly contentious. The controversy surrounding their growing popularity and ability to win elections (and perceived threat) suggests that this may prove to a significant political issue in ten years.
4. Political transitions and the role of the military.
As noted, the Middle East is currently in a stage of great change. Although protests throughout the region have led to the demise of many significant leaders, the ability to move forward and consolidate has yet to be demonstrated. As we’ve noticed in places like Syria, Egypt and Turkey, the military has played a very significant role in either repressing or aiding in these transitions. Regardless of what happens today, and what the initial elections may show, I think that most countries lack the strong tradition to enforce easy transitions. Following an era of severe instability, it remains to be seen what the outcomes may be. I think the rising role of the military, and the instability of many political systems will no doubt continue for the next ten years.
5. International involvement. Although this last issue is very linked to resources, Islamism, and a variety of other issues such as terrorism and the Israel question, I think that the shifting power dynamics on an international scale will continue to play a very important role for domestic politics. Although today this often centers around the war in Iraq and other impositions of U.S. policy, I’m curious to see from what direction this interventionist strategy (and perhaps corresponding resentment) will come from in ten years.
1. Islamist parties in power- Tunisia has al-Nahda in power and women’s rights activists are worried that their rights will be taken away. In this case, I believe that both Sharia and women’s right can coexist because al-Nahda is willing to work with women’s rights groups… but what about the other countries? Will the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt be recognized as a political party? How will the USA interfere this time?
2.The path of the Arab Spring countries- I would like to see what happens with Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Syria and the other MENA countries that are currently protesting. How will their neighboring countries and the global community react to their decisions post-revolution/protest?
3. Yemen- Umm… so the prediction that water will be nonexistent in Yemen concerns me. This issue coupled with high population growth, I’m worried if Yemen will be able to deal with all these problems. Cities will need to expand, water systems will need to updated/created to reach rural communities…and this will depend on if Yemen figures out how to keep water in the area. Will Saleh be ousted by then? Will Yemen be recognized as North and South Yemen?
4. Arab-Israeli conflict- Will we have progressed?
5. Immigration to France- This is a stretch, but I want to mention it…There are many North African immigrants in France who identity as French and are culturally Muslim. France already bans the veil in public and the French political party “Le Front National” (based on French nationalism) is the third largest political force in France. With the upcoming 2012 elections in France and the likelihood that a new party will come into power, I wonder how the North African immigration issue will play out in France over the next 10 years.
Arab-Israeli Conflict
Libyan civil war
Egypt’s regional dominance as a democratic power
Islamic Radicalism/Terrorism
Power relations relating to the growing power of China
I really don’t see an effective resolution of the conflict between these sides coming to pass in the next ten years and doubt that the situation then will differ much from what we see now. I also do not view Palestinian statehood as an effective solution to the broader dispute, because even if such an agreement were to occur between now and 2021, the historically deep-rooted and intense hatred for Israel’s presence in the region would remain to fuel conflict. Although I believe that it is entirely possible for Libya to establish a government in the coming months and consolidate a reasonable amount of power in its hands, the tribal divisions that were papered over with petroleum dollars are now becoming more pronounced and violently defined. The heavily armed rebel force appears to have fragmented, and traditionally splinter groups with weapons that exist within a tribal system have led to civil war in many African countries. Perhaps NATO will intervene should the situation deteriorate, but I view a protracted civil war (even if confined to a particular region) as a potential issue 10 years from now. I think that Egypt has the ability to succeed in the rebuilding process, provided free and fair elections proceed smoothly and Egyptian society buys into the new state. The question today is whether Egypt can transition, yet I think that in 10 years the issue will be other, more authoritarian countries relations with a very powerful regional Arab democracy. I think that Islamic radicalism will differ somewhat from its current form, yet do not believe that it will become a dominant force in the Middle East. The issue now is very often reduced to the US vs. radical’s scenario whereas I think more internal interactions and countermeasures to combat radical Islamic factions will emerge from the Middle East itself the unstable states that foster them begin to reject their presence. The growing global influence of China has already spread but I think that as an economic and emerging political power/rival to the United States, that it will play an increasingly important role in Middle Eastern politics. I also believe that they will shift from their current role of UN vetoes against western proposed sanctions to a more active and direct position.
1) The Arab-Israeli conflict
2) Political Islam, and the ability of Islamist parties to govern in post-authoritarian regimes
3) Oil availability and resource disputes
4) Sectarian Violence
5) Drought and famine
Unfortunately, I don’t anticipate an end to the Arab-Israeli conflict in the near future or even 10 years from now, given how cyclical peace talks tend to be and how obstinately each side holds to its own demands. Likewise, sectarianism is an issue with no easy resolution, and will likely continue to plague states with diverse religious and ethnic populations in the upcoming years. Politically Islamic parties’ explosive popularity in Tunisian and the current Egyptian elections is, I believe, indicative of widespread popular support for movements associated with Islam. It will be interesting to see how Islamist-dominated parliaments function, and whether those governments are able to function within a democratic framework, or whether we’ll end up seeing a proliferation of Iran replicas.
As oil reserves begin to dry up, states heavily dependent on oil revenues will be greatly affected. Though it may not happen in 10 years’ time, I could see how the drying up of oil wells could contribute to a shift in Middle Eastern balance of power from the Gulf to other areas. Declining oil reserves will also mean a diminished demand for external labor from rentier states, diminishing a source of national revenue for those states and increasing unemployment in them as well.
With the scarcity of water a fact of life in the primarily sand-covered region, and the drought problems and diminishing water supply that states such as Yemen face, I think there is a potential for major drought and, consequently, famine in the Middle East.
1. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict
2. Islamic radicalism
3. Border disputes
4. Post-authoritarian transitions
5. Minority representation
I think that we see all of these issues (some more-so than others) already today. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict and Islamic radicalism are certainly issues at the forefront of discussions about the Middle East today. But I think that we are seeing the other issues developing in front of our eyes. The recent case of Sudan splitting into two different states is something that I think we might begin to see more and more of issues of state vs. nation come forward in ways they haven’t for the past several decades. In the case of transitioning away from authoritarian regimes, I think that we saw those transitions beginning with the Arab Spring, but I imagine that the transitions will be nowhere near completion ten years from now. Many of the issues that are trying to be sorted out today, such as how to hold free and fair elections, will be present for years and years to come. And the issue of minority representation, while somewhat related to the issue of state borders is also it’s own issue entirely, and one that will surface repeatedly as long as it is not dealt with.