Week 8

If you are assigned to be a member of the regime: What options do you have to stay in power in the face of a popular challenge to your rule? When would you choose one option over another? What do you think the experiences of the Arab spring teach us about the costs and benefits of those options?

If you are assigned to be a revolutionary: What options do you have if you want to remove a regime?  When would you choose one option over another? What do you think the experiences of the Arab spring teach us about the costs and benefits of those options?

11 thoughts on “Week 8

  1. Nobuhle Ndlovu

    As a revolutionary I feel it is necessary to find a people who feel my pain. We are all suffering, but the question is how do we change this suffering to real change?

    My first idea is to try and convince a civil society group to join my cause. After that we would try to target and mobilize the whole society. We would stage sit ins that would show we do not want to use force to institute change. If that doesn’t work then we will riot. The question is whether our calls will be heard. We also need to involve the international community in our struggle as they will understand the pain we suffer through. if we cannot carry on with our demonstrations due to the military cracking down on us, then they can outside.

    These ideas are all great, but it is hard to propagate whether they would work. I’m slightly glad we have a significant amount of oil because I know the US or Nato will help us at some point if their oil supply is disrupted.

  2. Yixin Zeng

    As a member of the regime, I have several options to stay in power when facing popular challenge to my rule. First, controlled economic liberalization. Some economic reforms would distract the citizens from concentrating on political liberalization. Drawing lessons from China’s regime, if people are not hungry and unemployment is low, then they would less likely to give voice to protest. Second, some political liberalization, yet all under my control. This may be in the form of a freer election, yet I would make sure that a greater proportion of key roles are appointed by me so as to create a buffer zone. The political reform can also be institutional. Again, I would weaken the constitution and weight more power on the presidential branch of the government. Aside from strategic economic and political reforms, I would manipulate civil social groups while seemingly giving them more freedoms. By co-opting some groups and severely repressing some others, I seek to destroy their unification and demonstrate to the people that I support civil society as well. If all of the above does not work well, I would consider a direct suppression with jailing, bombing and martial laws. This, however, is highly costly given what happens in Egypt and Libya. In order not to backfire, the member of the regime should strategically consider the first three options.

  3. Olivia Grugan

    As revolutionaries, we have four primary options.
    1. We can protest and hope someone listens.
    2. We can participate in elections, if they exist in our country, and hope that they are fair enough that the outcomes grant us at least partial influence.
    3. We can work through the military and stage a coup to overthrow our president.
    4. We can start a revolution, demanding the change we wish to see.

    As has been illustrated by the comments posted by the leaders of our country, any one of our efforts could be thwarted or silenced either through tactful politics or through outright oppression and violence. As such, it will be extremely important that we play out our revolution in front of the international eye. The media will be an extremely important tool.

    Internally, it is important that we not just unite in opposition to something, but in pursuit of something. So many movements before us have successfully shed themselves of some repressive power only to find that the various revolutionary groups all disagree about what the new government should look like. Therefore, as we work to change our current state, we must also be planning for the future and developing collective strategy for building up a new government. Here it is useful to think of the metaphor of the bright line and big tent. We must construct a big tent that includes all of our various allies, while also drawing a bright line that delineates our collective goal.

    If we have a clear plan for after our initial demands are met, we will be far more successful than many movements who have gone before us.

  4. cnewbury

    As a member of an oppressive regime in the Middle East, I must say, I am terrified. The ways in which young people are able to educate themselves and communicate despite the limitations my regime has set forth poses great risk to my sovereignty. Using Tunisia and Egypt uprisings as an example, I would try to come to some sort of a compromise with the opposition. When I say “compromise” I do not mean a fair compromise. I mean to concede as little as possible to the people under a guise that seems to benefit them, but is heavily tied to my regime’s agenda. Should this not work (and with Facebook spreading rebellious ideas like wildfire, it only takes one crazy person to dissimilate a nation) I will proceed to cede more and more of what the protestors want to placate them, trying all the while to survive.
    Looking around the region I see failure through rallying between compromise and repression, and I believe that a regime needs to take a hard line one way or the other. If you give an inch, they will take a mile, and then you have less legitimacy to then repress. I choose concession as that is more likely to win back popular approval. I see this period we are in as one of crisis, when someone should and can do all things necessary to survive. What I believe I need to now do to survive is to gain the people’s trust. When this period passes, I will still be in power and can restructure my government once again.

  5. cnewbury

    terrified. The ways in which young people are able to educate themselves and communicate despite the limitations my regime has set forth poses great risk to my sovereignty. Using Tunisia and Egypt uprisings as an example, I would try to come to some sort of a compromise with the opposition. When I say “compromise” I do not mean a fair compromise. I mean to concede as little as possible to the people under a guise that seems to benefit them, but is heavily tied to my regime’s agenda. Should this not work (and with Facebook spreading rebellious ideas like wildfire, it only takes one crazy person to dissimulate a nation) I will proceed to cede more and more of what the protesters want to placate them, trying all the while to survive.

    Looking around the region I see failure through rallying between compromise and repression, and I believe that a regime needs to take a hard line one way or the other. If you give an inch, they will take a mile, and then you have less legitimacy to then repress. I choose concession as that is more likely to win back popular approval. I see this period we are in as one of crisis, when someone should and can do all things necessary to survive. What I believe I need to now do to survive is to gain the people’s trust. When this period passes, I will still be in power and can restructure my government once again.

  6. Connie Sanabria

    Revolutionary:

    Give me back my dignity! Let me enjoy democracy!

    My fellow Arab brothers and sisters, the power for change is within our grasp. It is unacceptable that unemployment and marginalization has transcended to reach both the young and the old. The regime is not looking ahead to the future in our interest, they just want to keep oppressing us in Allah’s name so they can stay in the elite power! We have to let the regime know they CANNOT act without our public opinion.
    Look around you at your fellow arab nations such as Syria, Egypt, and Libya- the Arab Spring should inspire you because change is happening for the better. Listen! This past October, Tunisia held elections for the Constituent Assembly. It is the regimes who should be scared knowing that we are willing to die for our cause. But hold on- violence will not be our starting point. Let us begin at a local level and then build up to a national and global awareness. We want our neighbors and rest of the world to sympathize with our cause. Let us grab the regime’s attention by rallying the local student organizations to protest down the streets and hold labor strikes. We can voice our concerns, needs, and demands via Facebook, Twitter, and blogs. Technology is on our side so let us use it. Let’s do this already! Let us gain our freedom!

  7. Catherine Brown

    If I am a revolutionary wholly dedicated to removing the current regime, I would try to mobilize popular support for a peaceful revolution, using the following steps:

    1. Write a personal statement. What are my key non-negotiable interests? Why has the current regime failed to meet my interests.
    2. Create a social networking platform to engage the broader population in a discussion. Do my values resonate with the population at large? If I succeed in securing a following, we will revise our mission statement to better reflect national interests.
    3. Continue to spread the word through all media outlets at our disposal.
    4. Organize a peaceful protest, beginning in several smaller communities and culminating at the capital. (Imagine the progression of primary elections or the tar sands campaign or the ripple affect across Libya –> we are just trying to rally widespread support)
    5. If initial protests are not enough, conduct a sit in. Re: Tahrir Square or Occupy Wall St.
    6. Begin reaching out to multi-national organizations for support for the upcoming months. Make sure there is an institutional framework for healthcare, should the protests turn violent. Do we arms? Start making inroads with the national military. Can we convince them to join us in the streets?
    7. If the military is not responsive to our message, we are at greater risk of incurring human loss. Continue to reach out to the UN, NGOs for potential support. Can we secure our own arms?
    8. If the sit in is still ineffective, try another ‘public awareness’ mobilization campaign. Flash mob? New marketing? New partnership with radios, newspapers? How can we make the government captive to our demands?
    9. Can we ask major governmental revenue streams to boycott the regime? Cut gas, oil? Can we anticipate potentially violent protests and try to attack key military technology first? Can we dispose of the air force? Cut off intelligence networks? Pursue all mechanisms to level the playing field.
    10. If all else fails, prepare for military confrontation and FIGHT.

    There are huge risks associated with an popular uprising. The largest:
    1. Fragmentation of the movement –this type of movement ONLY works if it has mass support.
    2. Violence –huge loss of physical capital and human capital in Syria, Yemen and Libya, in particular. Is this cost worth the potential benefits of freedom?
    3. Failure–what is the likelihood that we carry through the uprising, incur huge physical/human losses and FAIL? Is it worth it? Would the Syrians have acted differently if they could have anticipated the huge costs of a revolt?

  8. Claire Powers

    As a revolutionary, I feel that there are two primary and necessary components in sparking change. We need unified and large-scale public mobilization, and we need to use social media to our advantage. Vast protest is the key, and labor strikes are especially helpful. To be truly effective I believe that we must unite across the broader spectrum, uniting those of all ages, classes, occupations, religions, etc. Only when the entire country is on our side can the government truly be put into a position in which it has no options but to concede to our demands. We must be a unified opposition, which means putting aside our differences and understanding that each and every group is a necessary piece of the puzzle—we need the intelligentsia, we need the unemployed youth, we need those dissatisfied with our state. If we can then convince the military to support us, or at least refrain from shooting us, this would be the best possibility. We must be unified, organized, and only violent as a last resort, for this can have long lasting effects (such as the Libyan civil war), spark more brutal retaliation, and alienate journalists or others who might support our cause. But should it come down to the line, we must remember that freedom and continued protest, whether violent or not, are of the utmost importance.

    Now, when there is a “match” to set off the building discontent, it can be spread instantly to the far reaches of our state. Just as Egypt used the Facebook group “We are Kahled Said” to increase awareness and disseminate the rage created by this triggering event, so too can we manipulate the uncontrollable realm of cyber space. Through technology we can also share ideas and tactics with our neighboring brothers and sisters engaged in similar conflict, and increase our momentum. Let us also present our case to the international world through our use of technology, and make sure that our plight is sympathetic (to ensure that if not support, then nothing else).

  9. Pathik Root

    There are a whole range of different options that I have as a revolutionary:
    – Peaceful resistance: Egypt, Tunisia, Bahrain, India, etc.
    – Armed resistance like in Yemen
    – Armed resistance like in Libya
    – Appeal for indirect international support: why not?
    – Appeal for direct international intervention: risky
    – Most importantly, I may want to remove the regime, but could choose to be completely passive: least risky. Like the “silent majority” in Syria.

    Surprisingly, the Arab Spring has taught us that peaceful, coordinated resistance is, in most cases, actually the best course of action. Although the consequences of that type of resistance are high, resorting to violence seems to lead to even more death and destruction. Two contrasting examples would be Syria and Libya. Yes the costs of peaceful resistance in Syria have been high (3,000 dead, tens of thousands arrested and 10-20,000 refugees) but in Libya the number of people adversely affected by the civil war was drastically higher.

    That said, it is extremely difficult to stay non-violent, and there may be times when taking up arms seems advisable. In Libya, for example, given the country’s geography and Gaddafi’s stranglehold on the country, the opposition’s best chance at success was rebellion. Generally, armed rebellion and a request for international intervention should be a last resort, unless you have a substantial chance of winning, a rarity for revolutionaries.

    When to move from being passive to engaging in active resistance is a personal choice bases on your position in society, family concerns, your willingness to risk bodily harms, etc.

  10. Jordan Kelley

    As a member of the regime being challenged by the masses, there are a couple options I could pursue in an attempt to stay in power. Firstly, seeing as the primary members of recent revolutions have been those in the 25 and younger demographic, I could try reaching out to them in public, telling them about my plans to open a new governmental panel dedicated to seeing the personal interests of younger generations discussed, and to create a dialogue between the people and my government (of course, the panel or committee would be designed without any means of challenging the power of my regime). My next choice, assuming the protests continue in spite of my proposed panel, would be to try a further concession, of creating a parliament with free elections promised and checks and balances as well (though, through careful planning by my regime, all checks and balances would be in the form of my office checking and balancing the parliament, which again through design would have minimal true power). Assuming this plan doesn’t work, my third option would be to begin jailing people, imposing martial law, rallying guerrilla gangs of those loyal to me, and cutting out internet access in major cities in order to prevent the coordination and spread of movements.

    As evidenced by the Arab Spring, the first two options would be unlikely to work. The Arab world has seen far too many examples of proposed institutions that turn out to be impotent by meticulous legislative design, and many have become disillusioned with the empty promises of leaders and regimes as a result. As for my third option, assuming the military was faithful to me, I might be able to stay in power for a while. The overwhelming repression that this plan would entail however would likely incite an international response, and thus could turn out badly for me.

  11. Cameron Wilson

    As a veteran of various uprisings that plagued our great nation during the tumultuous era following the alleged ‘crises’ period preceding the 1990s as well as the later generational reforms of indolent, jet-ski toting monarchs, I am well equipped to understand the nature of the uprisings we will cru… I mean support with the might of our government. The options that we extend to our dissenting masses of miscreants are as follows:

    Option 1.
    Prison for extended periods of time (up to, but not limited to, 200 years), provided the armed forces prove compliant in the face of mass insurrection.

    Option 2.
    Should the armed forces be decidedly uncooperative, we invite you to draft a constitution that, following review by our governmental clerics for “scriptural adherence”, will be drafted in its altered form and adopted by the present regime. No changes to its form will be accepted following our ‘clerical’ review of its content.

    Option 3.
    We will create a parliament that is specifically structured to represent the interests of the people, and is purely democratic in both election process and exercising of legislative power. Furthermore, this body will be tasked with the important responsibility of reducing unemployment to below 2% and expanding education to all levels of society, while increasing GDP by 100%. We eagerly await news of your successes and reiterate that this will be an entirely independent body, solely entrusted with these important goals, with no connection to the central government.

    Option 4.
    A prime minister may be elected, provided he has no ties to Islamist groups and possesses a graduate degree in engineering. He will, however, be subordinate to the president and may be dismissed for any reason, at any time by the president.

    Option 1, while possessing the most appeal, being both a tried and tested tool of our regime, has proven itself to be an ultimately ineffective tool during the course of the various revolutions that have swept the region. It results either in potentially disastrous international condemnation and subsequent intervention (Libya) or disobedience on behalf of the armed forces (Tunisia) both of which are undesirable outcomes. The appeasement approach in option 2 would allow for a state-censored constitution that is meaningless, yet the Arab-spring has shown these moves of appeasement to be ineffectual in defusing the uprisings. President Mubarak enjoyed very little success in attempting to convince the Egyptian people that his proposed reelections and reforms were borne out of a genuine interest in sharing power. Option 3 would perhaps succeed, as the impossible portfolio of tasks designed to ‘expose’ their incompetence could be created after having appeased the masses with seemingly free and fair elections, allowing the state to deal with the immediate threat of protests. The Arab-spring has been characterized by force of masses and the mobilization of disillusioned people whose anger and resentment were captured by the opportunity presented through the Pan-Arab change. Option 3 could rob the local movement of impetus by creating the illusion of success and breaking the momentum of the struggle. Option 4 is transparent, yet could create a divide between the unemployed, educated class and the excluded middle class, driving a wedge between the driving force behind the movements for change.

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