This is your last posting of the year for this class (sigh).
What do you think will be the top 5 big political issues in the region 10 years from today? How will this differ from what you think the biggest issues are today?
8 thoughts on “Week 13”
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1) Water is an issue of growing concern as the population is growing and the resources not. Countries in the past have been able to get away with it by importing “virtual” water through cheap grain and the like. But if the world starts to move away from oil and to other alternatives of energy this might pose a major problem
2)Israeli Palestinian conflict is here to stay because non of the warring parties are willing to compromise
3)United states Foreign policy towards the region is going to determine how the MENA shapes outs in the coming years.
4)Who is going to be the next hegemon? Turkey, Iran, Egypt are the states with the largest populations and how they transform will sure be resonated in the region as a whole
5)islamism in the region has proved to be the better source for democracy and has is less likely to be influenced by american foreign policy. I predict a big rush towards a more Islamic parties
1) I think I’m going to have to side with my classmates here and say that the Arab-Israeli conflict will be neither resolved nor even sidelined. It will continue to dominate discussions of the region and will always loom over everything else. Solving this conflict would be a real game-changer and would affect every aspect of geopolitical life in the Middle East
2) The continued process of the Arab Spring will have a huge influence on the future of the MENA region. Syria and Yemen could well devolve into civil war and anarchy. Libya has yet to establish a functional new regime and government. Even Egypt is still somewhat up in the air. Bahrain also will need to change or face new protests. Bahrain in particular would have a big effect as it might embolden the citizens in other Gulf States to press for change and more liberty.
3) I think that another big issue that will begin to arise in the next 10 years is water. Most countries in the MENA region are running out of water, and in the next 10 years that should start to become more apparent and perhaps enter political discourse. Yemen in particular is going to run out of water soon and perhaps seeing what happens to the Yemeni people will spur others onto action. Either way, water politics will begin to have a big impact on the region.
4) I predict that a big issue will still be US involvement in the region. We have a huge military presence in the region, as well as economic and political, and I think that we will continue to be a player in the region. Hopefully we will be less hated, but things could still be just as bad. Iran holding “Death to America” rallies, Saudis grumbling about the cozy relationship the monarchy has with us, and Iraqis blaming us for most of the problems with their country. Things could well not have changed much.
5) Islamism I believe will be the final big issue in MENA in 10 years. Islamists have the potential to win big in the elections in Egypt and Tunisia and show the region how an Islamist state can be run. If successful, political Islamism could spread to more countries and change the politics of the region for a long time to come.
1. I think the Arab-Israeli conflict will still be a major issue 10 years from now. Even if a peace agreement is reached within the next few years, it will still take a long time for both groups to adjust and for true peace to be realized.
2. I think Islamism will become more stronger in the region as Arab Spring countries seem to be moving towards favoring Islamist governments. It will be interesting to see how the international community, especially western powers, react to this power shift.
3. As oil reserves in the Middle East continue to be depleted, and as much of the world begins to invest in alternative energy sources, it will be interesting to see how the oil-dependent states in MENA are affected.
4. I think Iran’s rise as a regional and international power will greatly affect the balance of power, and western relations with Iran will determine if a major political crisis si avoided.
5. The future political structures and level stability of countries that succeeded in removing authoritarian rulers from power in the Arab Spring, as well as the outcomes of the countries still involved in uprisings, will determine the overall stability of the region ten years from now.
1) Much like the others, I too believe that the Arab-Israeli conflict will not be resolved in the next 10 years. With both sides digging their heels in on certain issues such as settlements, it is likely the situation will continue.
2) Democratization can be quite a long process. Ten years from now we will have only seen a few elections. All of the countries currently in the process will have made interesting and varied choices and I believe it will be interesting to compare how they have made it.
3) Today Iraq is struggling to maintain basic services for its citizens. Will Iraq have gotten everything together by 2021?
4) The Middle East is a much different region than it has been and it means that the U. S. will have to reevaluate how it deals with the region and the potential for hostile regimes replacing previously friendly regimes. I also believe that the U.S. will have to somehow reconcile the support we gave to regimes that have been toppled to the people who suffered under them.
5) In 10 years, how will the Arab Spring have impacted the remaining authoritarian regimes? Will the progress made have a demonstration effect on other countries or will the tight control on media and information and co-optation effectively prevent a continued ending of Middle Eastern dictators?
Although the dramatic changes and turmoil of the last 5-10 years indicate that predicting the state of the Middle East and North Africa a decade from now is difficult, here is my best guess as to the top five issues facing the region in 2021.
1. I believe that the Arab-Israeli crisis, unfortunately, will still be a crisis. Massive distrust on both sides, in addition to splintered factions within both Israel and Palestine will make any lasting peace incredibly difficult to achieve. Whatever progress is made by the two governments will be opposed by some citizens from both sides, and will be hard to implement and maintain.
2. The rise of the Internet and free access to information has been a driving force behind the Arab Spring. As technology continues to advance, and modes of communication and information sharing become more widespread and advanced, it will be interesting to see how the populations of oppressed counties utilize this technology. As technology changes, so do those who use it, and it will be interesting to see how this plays out in the Middle East.
3. Who, after Tunisia, Egypt, and Morocco, will begin holding free and fair elections? In 10 years, will more countries be following this model, or at least be headed in that direction? Will the elected parties in Tunisia, Egypt, and Morocco demonstrate why this model can succeed in the Middle East, or be an example of why other counties in the region should maintain authoritarian rule?
4. The situation in Syria is almost guaranteed to get bloodier and harsher. Will a full scale civil war erupt? Will its regime be toppled? It will be interesting to see how that situation develops in the next decade.
5. Like Sylvana, I am interested to see how the United States’ relationship with the Middle East evolves over the next decade. I am also skeptical that our interest in free and fair elections in the region extends far enough that we will accept any and all governments elected. Our continued War on Terror will, in all likelihood, continue to provide reason for distrust and dislike of the United States in the region, and I am not optimistic that tensions will be resolved in the next 10 years.
1. I think water will become a major issue. While it is not talked about much now, I think it will be in ten years. Part of the reason, Israel does not want to give up the Golan Heights is because of the area’s water supplies. Also, Turkey and Iraq will increasingly fight over the Euphrates and the Tigris. In fact, they already have. That does not bode well for longterm stability. As countries try to secure dwindling fresh water supplies, they will increasingly come into conflict with one another.
2. Iran’s rise will also be a major issue. Iran, whether we like it or not, is a regional power. It will be interesting to see in ten years, if the US has better relations with country. I certainly hope so, but judging from the way things are going now, I’m not optimistic.
3. Islamists in government will also be another interesting issue. Particularly after the Egyptian and Tunisian elections, which brought Islamists or Islamic-orientated parties to power, it will be interesting to see how other Arab Spring countries go and how the US deals with the new governments that emerge.
4. The Arab Spring and whether it becomes more violent will be important issues. If protests continue as they are in Syria and Bahrain, where demonstrators are increasingly willing to use violence, it will incredibly difficult, I think, for both countries to form stable governments. Violence, once used as a political tactic, is hard to put back in the bag (as evidenced by Libya), and that could lead to long-term instability in both countries and, by extension, the region.
5. Unfortunately, I think the Israel-Palestine conflict will still be a major issue. It shows no sign of ending anytime soon, and both sides have irreconcilable differences.
My top five political issues in the Middle East10 years from now are:
1) The rise of Islamism in wake of the Arab Spring revolutions. It will be interesting to see whether Islamism has consolidated itself in states such as Egypt and Tunisia. More importantly, what will be the response of the United States, Europe, and Israel towards the election of Islamist parties?
2) The role of Turkey as a regional leader following the Arab Spring and the shift from a Europe oriented policy towards one focused under the Middle East. Turkey’s recent alignment with Egypt will present an interesting shift in regional power that will likely see Turkey more involved in the region.
3) The Arab-Israeli conflict will still be important. However, Israeli’s power in the region may be diminished because of the loss of traditional supporters such as Turkey and Egypt as well as disagreements between the United States and Israel over policy in the region.
4) As more democracies are established in the Middle East, the Gulf monarchies will be put under increased international and domestic pressure to bring about electoral and democratic reforms.
5) Syria’s regime will probably go through drastic change, and this might lead to a prolonged civil war as the regime attempts to hold on to its power. International attention will be focused on whether Syria can establish a stable government without the presence of sectarian conflict.
My top 5 big political issues in the region 10 years from today:
1) I’m curious to know if Bashar al-Assad will still be in power in Syria. Right now, his record with human rights isn’t making him very popular among his people and even the U.S. is calling for his resignation. Will he resign? If so, will Syria’s Ba’th Party still be the predominant political force in the country? Will Alawites still dominate the political and security sectors in the country? If not, what kind of government will Syria choose? Who will they elect? This is all assuming, over course, that Bashar doesn’t make it 10 years from now.
2) 10 years from now, I’ll wonder how the Arab Spring countries (Egypt, Tunisia, Libya) are doing. Was the Arab Spring worth it? Or did it end up being a little too good to be true like Syria’s Damascus Spring? How are the governments doing in comparison to their pre-Arab Spring counterparts?
3) Is Yemen still in trouble? Right now, they are predicted to run out of oil by 2016 and water in the next ten years. Will they have found a solution to their problems? Or will they be the next “evil” country–a safe haven for Al Qaeda terrorists?
4) In general, I would be interested in seeing how U.S. relations with the MENA region are. Are they better than they are now? Just as bad? Worse? I feel the Obama Administration did a great job intervening in Libya. It was a multilateral effort and really demonstrated our concern for civilians’ safety and not occupation. I also feel we’re doing a good job letting Egypt and Tunisia chose their own paths in elections. The real question, however, is whether we will be able to deal with it if Islamist parties ARE elected to government by the people. Do we really support democracy in the MENA region? Or do we only support it if the regime emerges pro-West?
5) And finally, the most obvious issue: the Arab-Israeli conflict. I wonder if we will have progressed anywhere since 2011 or whether the conflict is still at a stalemate.