If you are assigned to be a member of the regime: What options do you have to stay in power in the face of a popular challenge to your rule? When would you choose one option over another? What do you think the experiences of the Arab spring teach us about the costs and benefits of those options?
If you are assigned to be a revolutionary: What options do you have if you want to remove a regime? When would you choose one option over another? What do you think the experiences of the Arab spring teach us about the costs and benefits of those options?
As many of my fellow regime members have indicated, our overarching options are to cede some liberalizing measures to the opposition or to suppress them by force. I agree that in normal times it would be fitting to take a strong stand against revolts each time they occur in order to set the expectations of the people that no open dissent will be tolerated. However, these recent uprisings have shown a widespread character previously unknown and single-minded repression may not be enough, particularly because if overly bloody, it will, as we see with Syria, lose us the support of both our neighbors and our Western benefactors. I think that in these times we must be prepared to pre-empt major unrest by offering a place in government for moderate opposition leaders, thereby undercutting the full mass support behind the protests and allowing us to be more targeted in our repression of those groups who will never be satisfied until we are toppled. It is better to cede limited amounts of our power now and be able to recover it slowly over time through procedural changes than it is to remain overly stubborn and lose our rule completely.
My fellow co-dictator Emma just proclaimed that using the military to suppress the uprisings is not a successful course of action. I disagree with her and will not only employ the military, but the entire security establishment to smash protesters. I believe that some of the dictators in the region didn’t quite understand how to deal with the protests the best way. It’s suicidal to let people gather in public spaces, as sooner or later a critical mass will be reached that cannot quietly be suppressed any more. We’ve seen that in Tunisia as well as in Egypt. Yet, in Bahrain, the military shot on protesters early on, dispersed the crowds, made a couple of hollow concessions, and the public was finally hushed. That is the way to go.
Of course, I have to recognize that the Gulf States could also provide the population with golden tents to buy them off. Fortunately, my country is not as poor as Jordan and Morocco. Those countries needed to make some honest plans of how to improve the situation for the people and of how to “democratize”. It might well be the beginning of the end for those cool monarchs. Indeed, the more I think about it, the better the Bahrain Plan sounds to me. My country has not as much oil, but we should be able to bleed the population enough to have the necessary funding ready to use similar tactics to keep the people on a low profile. Fortunately, we have good relationships with the USA, who will continue to support us unless (that’s what the ambassador told me) more than a thousand protesters would be shot. I will instruct the military to keep the numbers slightly lower. Oh! How glad I am we have some random Islamist groups in the country that appear dangerous to the international community–they are not, really, but I won’t tell that to anyone.
It is time for us to rise up against the repressive regimes that have dominated our lives since birth. It is utterly absurd that they have had control over our lives for so long. They are clearly not serving our interests, and our quality of life has only declined. We must reject this unemployment rate that has been ruining our futures. We must reject the oppression and torture that define our regime’s type of rule. We must reject the rampant corruption that stains our government. Through the Wikileaks cables, we know that even the United States views our regime as pathetic. It is time for us to act. We know what is possible. Tunisia has showed us how to make real change, and now it is our turn. We must use social media to our advantage, so please everyone, join our Facebook group, “Reject Oppression. Democracy Now.” The group will allow us to determine how best to coordinate and strategize our efforts. Also, remember to take cell phone videos as frequently as possible during the protests; coverage of these events is vitally important. To our Muslim brothers, join us in this struggle. To our friends in the labor movement, join us. The time is now.
As a very unpopular dictator I have many options when faced with popular opposition to my rule. One option, which was pursued by Mubarak, is to utilize the military against protesters. I do not think that this is a very successful course of action. Another possibility is the slight liberalization of certain policies in the country. This option has short-term advantages, such as relaxing the tense atmosphere of the country. However, this option has long-term disadvantages. The problem with this option is that it creates opportunity for privatization, which allows for the financial grown of certain individuals. This occurred with the liberalization in Egypt in the 1990’s. The creation of a middle class leads to future, and more detrimental revolts and protests by newly educated and wealthier citizens. I would definitely try to utilize western assistance, if they were offer it by conceding certain western desires as well as by emphasizing the danger of an Islamic regime replacing my authoritarian one. I also believe it is very important to work quickly in the face of a protest. I think that leaders must speak directly with the first protesters so as not to start a domino effect in the country. Anderson describes this effect by saying, “People bear an internal cost- to their sense of autonomy and personal integrity- of pretending that the status quo is acceptable. And when the cost of pretending becomes intolerably high for a few citizens, sudden and surprising mass protests can erupt. The actions of these few can trigger similar actions by others, who, when they see how many others feel as they do and are willing to show it publicly, join in the opposition. The larger the number of protesters becomes, the more others are willing to join them.” Protests are very sensitive they must be dealt with quickly. I also hope that if I were a dictator I would have better policies and would not be so unpopular among my peoples. The Arab Spring teaches us the most about how not to behave as a dictator. It teaches us that corruption does not pay and a government must watch out for it’s citizens economic well being.
My regime is the only thing standing between this country and civil war. Although I recognize that domestic matters are not perfect, can you imagine what would happen if the regime was toppled? You don’t have to imagine; I will describe this doomsday sectarian scenario in great detail in every interview and speech for the next five years. Meanwhile in the international press, I will gently remind foreign governments of the Islamic menace. If the regime should give even an inch, terrorists will surely thrive in the ensuing political and security vacuum. Terrorists who hate freedom, democracy, and the uninterrupted flow of oil. Speaking of al-Qaeda, we have proof that foreign insurgents (from Iraq/Israel/Iran) are at the heart of all opposition activities.
How will we proceed? I am extremely sympathetic to the youth’s demands. Not only am I prepared to raise the minimum wage, increase government subsidies for bread, and completely reshuffle the cabinet, I will also call presidential elections within the next six months. Three years later, when the international attention span is exhausted and these elections actually do take place, the leaders of the revolution will be in jail, the opposition will be co-opted and discredited, the press will be encouraged to take my side, and the price of votes will have fallen to a more reasonable level.
As a revolutionary, I’m ready and willing to die for my cause. Malcolm X stated it best, when he claimed that their is no revolution without bloodshed. However, with the growing civil society in the Middle East, I will take a diplomatic approach at first. Organizing the grassroots through the use of various student organizations. We will storm the streets like a blazing stampede of bulls and protest until we are heard. A regime can only be toppled from the bottom up. After all, we are their pillars, they rest on our back, without us they are nothing. Top-down reform does nothing, it is the ideology of fool hearted individuals afraid to stare fear in the eye and raise fists of courage to the sky.
Why be afraid? The Arab Spring has only reaffirmed the truth that we hold the power, we the workers, the toilers of society, those who are marginalized, who know not patronage, but abuse. We can succeed the world is changing for the better. The Arab Spring should serve as inspiration for us all to rise. Regimes should be hard pressed to come to the table and negotiate with us or they will end up like, Gaddafi. If they claim divinity we will not listen. Islam would never put such indifferent leaders in power. Further, if we’ve learned anything, we have learned that militancy is an option. The days of pacifism are gone, revolt brings results. We should not be afraid to gaze of upon the death of our brethren while we fight to topple these indifferent regimes. Tomorrow we rise and they fall!
Vive la revolution!
As a revolutionary I feel as though the regime is no longer functioning in a way that I can support. As such I have decided to start a movement in hopes of overthrowing those in power and initiating democratic reforms. Here we go!
There are a couple of ways that I hope to be able to do this. First, I hope to get the large percentage of youth (more than half of the population according to some) to identify with my movement. I need them to be impressed upon to join me and my initiatives. I don’t think this will be too much of a task as most of the youth are disgruntled at the lack of economic growth and the low unemployment rates. Once I know that I will have support from my peers I am going to use new technologies that are available to make sure that protests are well attended and well publicized. In this new technology age media restrictions are harder to enforce and this works to my advantage. I know that I will be able to publicize my movement to the West and hopefully find encouragement from outside populations- though I don’t want them to interfere with my revolution.
After I get my movement going I’m going to make sure that the regime knows my demands. Hopefully, they will concede to the population (there are a lot of us and our demands ring true to a lot of people). Because I’ve made sure that the West is aware I’m hoping that my regime won’t respond with too much violence. If they do I think it will just make more people side with me. No one likes a bully and we will just fight more viciously.
Mostly, I’m hoping to just roll with the punches as they come. This country needs change and I hope that by getting a vast majority of the population to tell that to the ruling regime we can institute some changes. Here’s to hoping we can get something out of this and that it wont be painful retaliation.
As a member of the regime, my main interest is just staying in power, whatever it takes. I would make some initial democratic concessions up front that wouldn’t really mean anything but might get the people “off my back” (Gosh, they are so needy!!). I would definitely propose elections for a legislative council or parliament, but only 2/3 of the council would be elected, and the other 1/3 would be appointed by me. Also, I would heavily fund the campaigns of those candidates whom I supported. In the end, it wouldn’t matter much who won because the parliament would have very little actual power, but I would succeed in making the people feel heard, and hopefully by the time they realized it was all a sham, this whole Arab-Spring-revolution-craze will have subsided.
I will also really amp up my brainwashing rhetoric, recreating my image to be the embodiment of Islam and nationalism so that my denouncing me, my opponents will simultaneously become heretics and anti-“fill in country here”. I will talk about how only Allah is the true authority, but that Allah put men like me in power to lead the people during their time on Earth. I would also talk about how Islam is not really meant for democracy, rather it clearly supports having the power be in the most qualified (which is me, of course).
Finally, I will also use repression techniques, such as imprisonment and the maintenance of a military presence. However, I think the most important thing is to keep this on the down-low, and use as much secret surveillance as possible. Harsh and violent repression just seems to be pissing people off rather than deterring them so this will be a last resort. Also, the media will not report on such issues unless it is to spin them in a favorable light. The media will instead show me talking and surrounding myself with “the people” and perhaps doing some charitable work with babies and old people. I’m gunna look like a frickin saint to my own people and to the international community because it is important not to give the U.S. or Europe any excuse to interfere.
Don’t worry, I got this covered.
Squashing democratization since before you were born,
Your Supreme Leader
As a member of a regime, I don’t think I can budge even an inch if I intend to stay in power. I think I’m going to have to play by the “Hama rules” described by Thomas Friedman in “From Beirut to Jerusalem,” meaning I’m dealing in absolutes. I don’t feel like if I’m going to stay in power, I can concede anything. Crackdowns, arrests, shutting down media access and communication systems… whatever needs to be done has to be done. If I concede even the slightest point, the opposition will have a field day and feel like they are making progress and having an impact. I need to strengthen the central government and make sure that there is no one in a position of power who is ready to cross to the other side and support the revolutionaries. If there are people who I feel show even the slightest signs of caving to popular pressure, I’ll throw them in jail too. Anyone speaking against my regime needs to be silenced, no matter who they are. It’s pretty unlikely that I came to power by popular choice or revolt, and I’ve maintained my power by paying off the right people and repressing popular sentiment, and that is what I will continue to do in an absolute manner.
Perhaps, but just perhaps (no promises) I will make slight concessions after all of this hubbub has calmed down, but the revolutionaries need to be made to understand that they will be punished, repressed, thrown in jail, and silenced until the revolution is stopped.