Bill Gates said in his TED Talk over four years ago that the world needed to prepare for the next global catastrophe, which would be the result of a highly infectious virus. Essentially, he predicted our current situation with COVID-19. As we deal with the ramifications of the highly contagious novel coronavirus, looking back on Gates’s talk is a bit eerie.
You can watch his 2014 TED Talk outlining the successful containment of the Ebola virus and predicting a future epidemic here.
Since we didn’t manage to get in front of the epidemic like Gates advised, what now?
Since the COVID-19 outbreak began, Gates has taken to the TED Talk platform again in a digital conversation with Chris Anderson, the head of TED. The discussion, “How we must respond to the coronavirus pandemic,” compares our present situation to past outbreaks.
Gates emphasizes a focus on both testing and serious adherence to isolation. The organization and prioritization of testing is important. Because this allocation isn’t happening on a national level, Gates says it may become the responsibility of individual states.
Isolation is key, as well. In Gates’s opinion, it is non-negotiable: “The sooner you do it in a tough way, the sooner you can undo and go back to normal.”
Of course, as the government pushes for isolation, concerns over economic collapse arise. The reality, according to Gates, is that we cannot have the best of both worlds at this late juncture: “We’re going to take the pain in the economic dimension, huge pain, in order to minimize pain in the disease and death dimension.” We missed the opportunity to contain it without social distancing measures. A total shutdown is necessary, but he’s optimistic that “in six to ten weeks, if things go well, you can start opening back up.”
Gates says this is the result of the U.S. not reacting quickly enough. In fact, the country had more than a month of notice, yet not enough measures were taken. Meanwhile, South Korea dealt with the virus much more effectively, putting sufficient resources into testing and containment.
There’s a lot we still don’t know. Seasonality, and its higher-temperature sidecar, could bring good news for the Northern Hemisphere. Developments in vaccines are being considered.
Does Gates think we’re heading in the right direction to fight the novel coronavirus? His optimism seems to guide him when he considers the scientific innovation and progress that is happening. He’s already thinking forward to the next epidemic, reassuring us that we’ll be better prepared. |
Gates’s recent thoughts are part of a series TED Talks has launched called TED Connects, which creates daily conversations around topics related to the pandemic.