This WashingtonPost/ABC poll finds that, “for the first time ever”, a majority of those surveyed disapprove not just of Congress, but of their own member of Congress. What does this portend for the fall midterm election? As I write in … Continue reading →…Continue Reading Fenno’s Paradox, or Why You Should Ignore That Poll That Says We Hate Our Member of Congress
Tag: midterm election
Why Did Political Scientists Miss the Midterm Wave?
After a period of post-midterm decompression, it’s time to return to the blogging salt mines. Picking up where I left off in my last post, let me start with a simple question: why did every political science forecast of the … Continue reading &……Continue Reading Why Did Political Scientists Miss the Midterm Wave?
Can We Trust the Gallup Generic Ballot Results?
At this stage in the electoral cycle, the fundamentals that drive the midterm vote – unemployment, real disposable income, attitudes toward Obama – are for the most part fixed, barring a major event. The key question now becomes who will ………Continue Reading Can We Trust the Gallup Generic Ballot Results?
Is the Public Stupid? When A Chart Is Not Worth A Thousand Words
This item from yesterday’s Washington Post caught my eye as a useful teaching moment. Ezra Klein posted this graph, based on this most recent Washington Post/ABC Poll, under the label “A chart is worth a thousand words”:
It’s not clear what……Continue Reading Is the Public Stupid? When A Chart Is Not Worth A Thousand Words