Monthly Archives: July 2012

The 2012 Election: Polarized Voters – Or Polarized Choices?

I want to pick up a discussion I began in this post at the Economist’s Democracy in America site regarding political science election forecast models. At this point in the presidential race, less than 100 days before the election, some … Continue reading

The GDP Numbers Are In – Do They Say Obama Will Win?

The much awaited second quarter GDP growth figure came out yesterday and, while it wasn’t a disaster, neither was it particularly good sign for the economy – or for President Obama’s reelection chances.  The government’s first estimate (they often revise … Continue reading

Changing the Abramowitz Presidential Forecast Model: Is It Science?

Beginning today I’ll be posting on a weekly basis (or more frequently) over at the Economist‘s Democracy In America blog site.  My first post, addressing Alan Abramowitz’s recent changes to his presidential forecast model, is up there now (here).  Although … Continue reading

Condi! Condi! Condi! (Condi?)

Sometime in mid-August Mitt Romney will announce his vice-presidential choice.  Because it is a decision that will garner more than a little publicity, it is one of few planned campaign events, along with his convention speech and perhaps the first … Continue reading

No, Wait! This Is Really A Game-Changer! I Mean It!

Yesterday’s campaign events and related media coverage perfectly illustrate the points I’ve been making in my last several posts regarding the relative importance of campaigns and the underlying fundamentals as influences on presidential election outcomes.  First, in this New Yorker … Continue reading