1. Perhaps you’ve stated it somewhere else, but I’m curious to know what your predictions are regarding the final outcome of the Republican primaries. How likely is that Trump will win the GOP nomination?

  2. Predictions? If you’ll recall correctly, I predicted Trump would be out of the race in about three weeks. That was 7 months ago! So I wouldn’t trust anything I say about Trump. Having issued that caveat, I’ll repeat what I’ve said before – it all depends on how quickly the Republican party can coalesce behind a non-Trump candidate. I’m guessing Cruz will stay in the race for some time as the conservative candidate, but it’s not clear who the moderate voters will support.

  3. Actually, Kasich’s showing isn’t a surprise based on what we were seeing up here in the last few days at various rallies, and in recent polls. He got the plurality of the late deciding independents, with Trump a close second. So, no I don’t see any shockers. I guess if forced to say something, I would say that Sanders is doing a bit better than I expected – I wondered how much of his potential support would be siphoned off by Trump and other Republicans. And Cruz may be overperforming a bit based on what I expected, but it is still early in the night.

  4. But keep in mind that Trump’s winning margin in NH is not terribly impressive by historical standards.

  5. Do you see an winnowing tonight? To me looking at Carson and Fiorina its rapidly becoming the bewitching hour. If they drop, my guess is Cruz picks up the 6 remaining Carson supporters. But where would Carly’s crew go!

  6. Well, this does nothing to put a dent the speculation! He said he’d get in if Trump and Sanders get the nomination. But it is very very early.

  7. Chris,

    I mentioned in my post that I thought Carly was out, and Christie might be too. Carson, I think, is going to hang in through South Carolina. Let me check Carly’s supporters to guess where they might go.

  8. No. But that won’t stop the media from speculating that this time – THIS TIME! – it could happen. The odds might be higher this cycle – up to 1% chance from .5% maybe. But we are long way from that. Wait until Republicans start dropping out and the vote begins to consolidate behind a Trump alternative. If that doesn’t happen, then we can talk brokered convention.

  9. Sounds like Christie will bow out tomorrow or very soon. Will his supporters fall in line with the establishment or is the allure of The Donald too much to say no to? After all, Christie was the “crazy candidate” before Trump.

  10. I suspect most of them gravitate to one of the other two governors. This is how the antiTrump coalition will develop, and why I’m not ready to prepare for a brokered convention quite yet! (This assumes Christie drops out – which I have to think he will. He’s not going to do well in South Carolina.)

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