Ok, time to place some bets:
1. Which network is the first to comment on Palin’s clothes?
2. Will the viewing audience outnumber the audience for the first presidential debate?
3. Will anyone mention the Ifill controversy?
4. Will there be an equivalent of the “You’re no Jack kennedy” moment?
And they start: She asks if she can call him “Joe” – very wisely, he calls her “Governor” at the outset.
9:08 The first soccer Mom reference three sentences in..there’s the target audience!
9:12 And she turns it back on Obama. And the first jab at Biden at being part of the past….
9:13 First reference to hockey Moms and Joe six-pack. Again, she’s on target with the target audience..
9:15 Biden is staying away from Palin, and attacking McCain – also very smart.
9:18 – She’s clearly going to get her points across, regardless of the question – again, smart strategy.
9:20 – When Palin wants to make a point – she looks in camera, not at Biden.
9:25 – They are hitting the major issues – give Ifill credit: taxes, and health care.
9:26 – Biden – slips in the “bridge to nowhere” – nicely done!
9:27 – Nice question from Ifill – what have you overpromised?
9:29 – When Palin is ready to pounce – she turns right to the camera. Again, she simply moves the topic to where she can score – this is a nice riff on having to undo Obama’s vote.
9:30 Biden does not want to get bogged down into explaining Senate votes here….
9:32 “It gets complicated”? You never want to include that in an answer!
9:33 – “EAst coast politicians”!
9:34 – Palin must have been a grad student – she just answers the question she wants to be asked.
9:35 Climate change – not her best moment of the night…and Biden sees an opening.
9:37 Drill baby drill!
9:37 Uh oh – Biden alert! He’s losing Pennsylvania! Time to shut up – will Palin hang him out to dry here?
And she nails him! There’s the coal rope line reference… she’s on her game so far… And Biden is on the defensive….
9:40. Is anyone else watching the CNN focus group in Ohio along with Brad? How are they reacting?
ON to the surge – should be a winner for Palin, but this is Biden’s area.
9:45 – Palin’s use of Biden’s words against Obama was predictable but still effective.
9:50 – Finally, Biden ties McCain back to Bush. Palin better be ready for this, because Obama used it effectively in the first debate. …. too bad they moved on…
9:50 Doesn’t anyone know who is in the Ohio focus group – are they described as “uncommitted”, or “independent”?
9:51: Another set piece speech by Palin. How are these playing?
OK, several of you said the Ohio voters are “uncommitted” – not necessarily “independent”. As I noted at the outset, they are not the same! Palins needs to win the independents…
9:55 Biden is very careful not to attack Palin – he attacks “John”, not “Governor Palin”…
9:56 Pssst… that country is Syria Joe!
9:58 – She’s painting broad themes, instead of getting bogged down in details. And Biden is calling her on it. Nice retort by Biden – this may be the media sound bite that gets the play.. let’s see how she responds…
10:00 – Biden – wide open response here. Let’s see if Palin can respond – what she should say is we’ve heard generals say the surge wouldn’t work in Iraq either (see Woodward!). It’s a softball, but will she hit it?
10:04 She missed the easy response here. So they will go around in circles…
10:07 Uh oh – I voted for Iraq before i voted against it….as one of you pointed out, this is the problem with being a sitting Senator – you have lots of votes to defend..
10:08 And Palin nails it! Nicely done Governor… (And notice the reference to “you guys” – no accident!)
This is an interesting question – when to intervene? I think Biden may be going too detailed here – what do you think? How’s this playing?
The Palin wink finally appears!
Just how big is the Wasilia main street anyway?
10:13 – Hey Joe knows Main St. as well! He shops at Walmart! (He won’t be able to shop in Middlebury…)
10:24 Good question from the Fox/Singleton post – how’s the Palin perkiness playing in America’s heartland?
A shoutout? She’s clearly learned from the Couric disaster….forget the SAT test and let Palin be Palin..
10:25 – The Cheney question doesn’t seem particularly relevant here…
STate motto for Alaska: “A big state”
Palin also loves apple pie! (but it’s an effective response).
Carlisle – most of her viewing audience doesn’t know who Winthrop is – they associate that phrase with Reagan….
“not got to allow”?
10:26 – Clearly Biden will not cede the change issue to McCain.
!0:27- I wondered when they would get to the Court. Nice move by Biden to slip this in..
Palin doesn’t compromise her principles. Nice touch.
Did you know Palin has a diverse family? I thought so….
Closing statement time: Palin needs to read the Dickinson memo here.
Well, she didn’t get the memo… but you can’t go wrong fighting for freedom I guess.
OK, I’m going to refrain from the instant analysis – what did you think? Closing remarks are yours…
Dueling families….. but where’s the baby?
And Mom gets the baby! Nicely done!
OK – a few thoughts:
First, Biden miscalculated in not attacking her. He let her off too easy. And this is the gender problem at work that I talked about in class.
Second, remember the complaint that McCain only looked at the camera? Same with Palin – and it worked. Her audience was in t.v. land.
Third, Palin clearly understands how to work a camera.
Fourth – Palin’s performance almost certainly ended the media hype questioning her place on the ticket. She clearly demonstrated what was apparent to people who looked beyond the Couric interview and watched her these past weeks on the stump – she has charisma and is a definite asset to McCain. This debate once again reminds viewers just how ill informed the pundits can be.
Fifth – Will this change the dynamic of the campaign? I think the Republicans get a slight bump up in this, but the key issue is: how did it play among independents and women? I think it will play well. She has stopped the downslide created by the financial crisis – but for how long? If I’m McCain I get Palin out there as much as possible – she is new, and she pushes the financial news off the front page. When it comes to campaigning (if not set piece interviews), Biden doesn’t hurt Obama – Palin helps McCain.
It will be interesting how this plays out in the target audience: But McCain has some new life…
Remember my cautions about snap polls – look at the internals.
Things to look for tomorrow:
1. How many watched this debate?
2. How does the media spin it – what’s the sound bite?
3. How long will it push the financial issues off the front page (not long I think)…
4. Biden did as well as could be expected, but as I suggested at the outset, there just wasn’t much upside for him. This was all about Palin.
5. Most importantly, what impact will this have on women and the independents?
Great participation tonight, and excellent comments – much appreciated! I’ll be on early tomorrow with the overnight reactions – remember my cautions….
she’s talking about the pundits
Best comment of the night (so far) comes from Palin, she used the “Washington Outsider” idea and “political “flip-flopping” idea on Biden in one rebuttal.
I think he was a little detailed. especially for war weary americans.
biden is right about election importance. winking? she’s going to push mccain? huh
are working class americas really truly anti-gov? aren’t they saying help (even if the govt. can’t?)
The death question: Biden gets a chance to return to effective message politics, instead of policy particulars. Nice dig on the Bush Doctrine. Also got a second chance on energy independence and jobs.
oh joe? dog gone it? huh….education. wow, she’s flattering. another wink. omg shout out? did the audience laugh? she’s good
profession of teaching, good. public school kids, unfunded no child?
Shout out! I hope Biden pours one out for his home boys in response.
Doggonit she’s talking about extra credit! Where’s ours Dickinson? But here’s what scares me… how is grandma in the heartland reacting to this?
they’re bantering, jeez. Energy independence? goverment reform? special needs…..she’s so engaging.
biden gets to the “unfunded mandate.” it’s interesting they’re talking about their roles as VP, in a good way. presidential power and advising roles, nice touch for biden
(Hi Jessie and Hallie, are you RI blogging in Dana?) she’s talking about the elasticity of the constitution! hey nice. she does agree with biden. biden stop making faces
experience question!! biden discipline? her experience as mayor and governor (huge state??? land mass….) executive power is maybe a fair point?
she’s really going for middle class issues, she’s going for the issues those poorer women are really caring about. damn
No biden!!! don’t say you’re not going to change! NO
I believe Winthrop was the one who first said we were “a City on a Hill”, not Reagan.
Palin on the vice-presidency: Now she’s the one hung up on specifics. How many people watching remember that the VP is the president of the senate?
Biden comes up strong with an anti Cheney move. But did he say Article I or II there?
he’s talking about his experiences and connections….he’s getting personal…not a bad connection
carlisle, i think you’re right 🙂
maverick “only six times.” wow. leave versus lead? oops?
biden was trying to distinguish when he’s a maverick. not bad
up there? seriously she’s already won that top office. it’s not the same
Biden connects to McCain….motive versus judgement. interesting. speaking to the voters, and their choice…..and then to mccainpalin policies, nice touch
americans have choices, nice touches, good lord, she’s so good off script. she’s way too good. damn damn damn
I think that Palin really drove in (at least in my mind), the point that Alaska isn’t part of the contiguous states. She constantly used language like “up there in Alaska…”, and it made me think, her disconnection from the states and the little that people know about Alaska and her gives her a curious appeal.
I guess its been the Republican’s call to arms since Reagan… She just seemed to phrase it as if Reagan had coined the phrase.
biden has a good speech here too, though, they’re both speaking to the “middle class.” the american dream. nice biden too
how well did she read your memo, in the end?
Biden didn’t screw himself over at any time, Palin didn’t do badly at all, she did okay. considering.
I didn’t think she did bad either, but she reminds me of Barbie and it irritates me…
also, she kept it pretty simple, but how many were actually impacted and for whom? she was much better than previously, so did she win? maybe in terms of what her expectations were? but Biden also did quite well. she always went to alaska all the time, does that say enough?
nice baby moment 🙂
I’d say Palin’s next-to-last argument was incredibly strong, but her closing argument, not-so-much. Biden’s concluding argument was great, with admitted partisan bias.
All in all though, not a game-changer. Palin didn’t sound like a moron, so she didn’t lose. Biden didn’t make any major gaffes nor come off as a bully, so he didn’t lose. But neither candidate really made a major impact, in my opinion.
i imagine in the end: not a game changer
WHERE ARE THE RESULTS OF THAT LIVE POLLING???
I agree with Kevin – nothing that will linger beyond a few days. Biden won the issues, Palin appealed to folks who care more about folksiness – but those folks weren’t votin’ for Obama anyway. No more fodder for YouTube (although I wish she’d learn the difference between “attribute” and “contribute”), but people are still dissecting the Couric mess online.
(And I forgot to add: I’m glad Palin didn’t read the Dickinson memo, as it both would have raised the chances and the level of cyncical soulless politics to new heights!)
Overall, I think Biden’s strategy was smart and effective. Not once while I was watching the debate did I catch him directly lash out against Palin. Instead, he seemed to have left out his personal criticisms – whatever and how unpredictably offensive they might have been – to the pundits of tomorrow morning’s paper.
I found Biden to be strongest when he emphasized “fundamental differences” between the Obama-Biden ticket and McCain-Palin ticket. I think he did well in the end by speaking directly to the people and explaining the monumental importance of this election. He needed to frame his argument in this way-he had too many things to say and not enough time to say them all.
Biden did a good job of attacking McCain, and tying him with Bush. He almost made Palin look Cheney on that VP question.
I think Biden’s choking moment was powerful. It will remain with the audience.
Mom had the baby when she got off the plane this afternoon. And Fox News covered it live. That is clearly part of set up.
No Russia! No Georgia! No Putin!
I think Obama owes Biden a lot after this debate.
(My previous comment on the joe-six-pack was ironic. To clarify.)
Initial reactions: http://www.mediacurves.com/
To quote Prof. Dickinson, “[Palin] has stopped the downslide created by the financial crisis – but for how long?” Again, I don’t think Sarah Palin (or Joe Biden for that matter) said anything profound (or stupid) enough to significantly change the media narrative.
John McCain can get her out on the campaign trail as much as possible, but again, she only “stopped the panic.” It seems unlikely that any follow-up she can offer in future campaign or press appearances will go the necessary one step further to reversing the tide on how the public views the two tickets vis-a-vis the economy. Right now McCain is down 5.7 points in the RCP poll, and 9 points down in the CBS news poll. Simply stopping the panic is not enough. If he wants to win, he desperately needs to reverse the tide.
Both candidates did what they needed to do without committing any glaring mistakes along the way. Biden successfully came across as ‘in touch’ with average Americans (he attacked McCain for being out of touch in the first 3 minutes), he tied McCain to Obama, he attacked McCain instead of Palin, he was respectful, friendly and he demonstrated an in depth policy knowledge much like McCain demonstrated against Obama.
Palin didn’t give an inch, made a similar appeal to middle America, spoke to the camera, delivered the talking points she needed to deliver and was unphased by Biden’s criticisms. She went off script and seemed more confident than during the Gibson/Couric interviews. I don’t think she won over many people who were not won over by her pick in the first place.
Overall a close debate (as expected) and if I had to pick a winner it would be Biden because he successfully co-opted some of her appeal and simultaneously demonstrated a broader more in depth policy knowledge which I think many undecideds will find reassuring. He also successfully tied in how his role as VP in an Obama administration in an advisory capacity. He said something like ‘I will be present at every major policy decision to offer the president my advice.’ Obviously people vote for the top of the ticket anyways, but somehow I don’t think voters see Palin fulfilling the same role as her answer suggested…
This was also cool, no professor participation, but exciting to watch unfold:
http://debatable.wordpress.com/2008/10/03/vp-debate-reaction-thread-by-george-altshuler/
“Fourth – Palin’s performance almost certainly ended the media hype questioning her place on the ticket. She clearly demonstrated what was apparent to people who looked beyond the Couric interview and watched her these past weeks on the stump – she has charisma and is a definite asset to McCain. This debate once again reminds viewers just how ill informed the pundits can be.”
Sigh. Again with the monolithic “media” and the unnamed “pundits.”
First things first: Today through Sunday are when the real debate takes place, as the media puzzles over their answers, does some fact-checking, while both campaigns look to shape the “narrative” (the “framework for understanding what just happened”). In 2000, all of the initial commentary and reporting and focus groups said Gore won the first debate, but he lost the subsequent three-day battle in the media, and lost badly. Remember the “sighs” thing?
In the coming days, look for emerging themes. You already have one: “Palin did much better than expected.” So will the media morph that, as Professor Dickinson has, into “she won the debate”? I’ll say what no pundit will ever tell you: I don’t know. But if you hear someone tell you that either candidate “won the debate,” ask them why.
From here, inside the belly of the MSM Leviathan, I see Palin as having three interrelated media problems.
1) The most serious is her terrible performance in televised interviews with Couric.
2) The next most serious is the media investigation into her record as mayor and governor (did you notice that she did not repeat her “Bridge To Nowhere” claims? did you notice that the Geographic Proximity Theory Of Foreign Affairs never came up? did you see the Planned Parenthood ad that ran in the first commercial break after the debate, the one making use out of her policy as mayor to bill rape victims and their insurance companies for rape kits?)
3) Her third is the small but significant rebellion against her nomination from people like syndicated conservative columnist Kathleen Parker. No-one, I will hazard to say, gives a rat’s tail whether Chris Matthews thinks Palin is ready to be vice president, or president.
Did the debate lay these concerns to rest?
3) Time will tell. Watch the next three days to see whether our sabbath gasbags and other blow-dried political weathervanes go from “she’s great!” (nomination) to “she’s awful!” (post-Couric) back to “she’s great!” (*cough* David Brooks *cough*)
2) Emphatically not. That’s going to continue, at least in the print media. I thought it was very interesting that she didn’t bring up the most controversial stuff, like the Bridge To Nowhere (remember when I said “explaining is losing” yesterday? Classic example) or the “Alaska is near Russia” or the “I command the Alaska National Guard” stuff. But even if the media were done looking through her record, she has an ongoing investigation into whether she brought a personal vendetta against her former brother-in-law into the governor’s office.
1) She did a bang-up job in the debate of reintroducing herself to the country in the wake of the Couric debacle. A couple of my Republican friends emailed last night to call this the “See? I’m Not An Idiot! Debate.” These are folks who love Palin but stopped saying so after her interviews with Couric. They now say that she’s made it okay again to declare one’s Palin-Love publicly. They also say that they will buy me dinner if Obama/Biden, or their surrogates, don’t recycle footage from those interviews for TV and online ads.
At this point, you may be tempted to ask: “So who won, you rambling MSM doofus?”
I don’t know. As I said above, today, tomorrow and Sunday are the real debate. Unless someone unearths a major blunder in the fact-check process, I think the media will agree that Sarah Palin rescued herself from political death, did what a VP nominee is supposed to do, and “won” the debate, but that the absence of game-changing moments means Obama/Biden “won” in the broader picture. (Remember my Middlebury-Bowdoin hockey analogy? How if Middlebury is up 1-0 after one minute of play, they’re perfectly happy to fight to a standstill for the next 59 minutes? This is what I mean. You can rave that Bowdoin Player X really schooled his Middlebury counterpart on that individual face-off, but if the Midd defense is still shutting down Bowdoin, it doesn’t matter).
It’s always tempting when discussing late-stage presidential campaigns to press your nose right up against the glass and pick at minor moments in the debate: Did Biden really just deny that he attacked Obama during the primaries as not ready? Did Biden use too many numbers in that answer? Did Palin really just blame the financial crisis on “Main Street” (“It’s a toxic mess really, on Main Street that’s affecting Wall Street and now we have to be ever vigilant”)? Or my current favorite, in an email from a normally level-headed Democratic source: “Oooh, Biden really schooled her on who the leader of Iran really is!” (My reply: “Get help. You hurt us all when you’re like this.”)
This impulse must be resisted. Watch the overall post-debate “narrative,” sure. But watch the broader dynamics: How is the economic crisis shaping the fight over battleground states? Are we now irrevocably in an election about the economy? Or will Iraq, Pakistan, Afghanistan, terrorism, reassert themselves? Watch the evolution of polls that track questions like “whom do you trust more to handle X?”
Do we know how many people tuned in yet?