These picks are based on our predictions for the upcoming season, including projected player growth and role changes.

First Team

Joey Kizel, Middlebury
Aaron Toomey, Amherst
Daniel Wohl, Williams
Taylor Epley, Williams
Michael Mayer, Williams

Second Team

Ben Ferris, Tufts
Matt Hart, Hamilton
Matt Vadas, Connecticut College
Connor Green, Amherst
Stephen Haladyna, Tufts

Third Team

Graham Safford, Bates
Duncan Robinson, Williams
Andrew Madlinger, Bowdoin
Keegan Pieri, Bowdoin
Chris Hudnut, Colby

All-Rookie Team

Duncan Robinson, Williams
Harry Rafferty, Wesleyan
Matt St. Amour, Middlebury
David George, Amherst
Hunter Sabety, Tufts

POY: Michael Mayer, Williams
DPOY: James Jensen, Middlebury
ROY: Duncan Robinson, Williams
COY: Michael Maker, Williams

Projected Conference Standings

1. Williams (10-0)
2. Amherst (9-1)
3. Middlebury (8-2)
4. Tufts (8-2)
5. Bowdoin (5-5)
6. Hamilton (4-6)
7. Bates (4-6)
8. Colby (3-7)
9. Connecticut College (2-8)
10. Trinity (2-8)
11. Wesleyan (0-10)

AMHERST LORD JEFFS

2013 record: 30-2, 10-0 (Conference Champions, National Champions)

The Lord Jeffs have not lost a game since 2012. They went on the run of all runs through conference and tournament play last season, winning their last 24 games behind a prolific offense, a driven senior class, and individual improvement across the board. For Middlebury fans, it is easy to go back to that unforgettable February 12th night and wonder: if Willy Workman doesn’t tip in his own missed free throw to tie the game at the buzzer in double overtime (leading to a Middlebury win, as everyone but Workman thought they already had, and Amherst likely playing the conference tournament on the road) what might have changed? Sports hypotheticals are instructive but ultimately don’t matter. Amherst cruised the rest of the way (though the conference final came down to a game-saving Allen Williamson block), and nobody would dispute that on the whole they played the best of any team in the country in 2013. Amherst was the class of the nation and their championship felt anything but fluky, which is saying a lot given the random nature of college basketball tournament play. That said, the Lord Jeffs lose three (arguably still underrated) senior stars in Workman, Williamson, and Pete Kaasila. Workman was an all-around star — a shooter, rebounder, passer, ball-handler, defender, and leader. Williamson was a complementary player whose athleticism outshined his performance until the final stretch of 2013, when he became the best player on the team, putting up 16.1 points and 7.4 rebounds on 54% shooting in postseason play. Kaasila was an unmovable rock down low who had a knack for scoring when the team needed it, and led the conference with a 64% field goal mark. When considering Amherst’s 2014 prospects, it is important to temper expectations by appreciating how well that senior class played last season.

The Lord Jeffs are ranked 1st in the 2014 preseason D3Hoops.com Top 25 Poll, but probably shouldn’t be. No team can lose that much talent and bounce back to the top that easily.  That said, Amherst returns a lot of talent. It starts with Aaron Toomey, the senior point guard with a complete offensive game. Toomey averaged 17.3 points per game last season on 44/42/89 shooting, to go along with 4.8 rebounds and 5 assists. Toomey’s style of play translates well to his new role as a score-first creator. He will be asked to take more shots this season and to create his shot more often, a role in which he will likely thrive, though it will test his durability. Around Toomey there is a ton of talent but little in the way of proven commodities. Connor Green, a 6’4” guard, averaged 9.3 points per game as a freshman, and could be Amherst’s next offensive star. He has a nice outside shot to go along with strong finishing ability at the rim. Green displayed his improvement over the course of the season in the national championship game, scoring 16 points on 5 of 9 shooting, knocking down a pair of threes and finishing at the rim. Joining those two in the starting backcourt will be David Kalema, a senior point guard sharpshooter who scored 9.0 points per game on 48/44/66 shooting last season. Another guard in the picture is Tom Killian, who started last year but is less efficient offensively than the other three. A lanky 6’4”, Killian will be a big part of the rotation but needs to improve on his 40/36/88 shooting splits to surpass Green and Kalema for more minutes. Together those four form an extremely talented offensive backcourt, and each will be asked to carry more of the scoring load this season. The major question is whether any or all of the complementary three can maintain their efficiency and effectiveness in a higher usage role. We project Green to take the biggest jump of the group, possibly finishing in the top 10 in the conference in points per game.

The frontcourt is more of an unknown for the Lord Jeffs, as the top returner is sophomore Ben Pollack. We like what we have seen from Pollack, as he averaged 4.3 points, 3.6 rebounds, and 0.8 blocks in 13 minutes per game last season. Asking him to go from the fourth best forward to the top forward in one year will be hard though, as he will no longer be a secondary concern for opposing defenses. Around him is a slew of unproven talent, from upperclassmen Joe Mussachia to a very talented freshman class, including six players at or above 6’4.” The freshman class is led by the 6’8” David George, who projects to secure a role immediately. The fate of Amherst’s season likely depends on whether a couple of those unknown bigs can contribute at a plus level. Last year, Amherst’s complementary players showed drastic offseason improvement across the board. If they experience similar progress this year, it will be enough to carry Amherst to its third consecutive NESCAC title.

Matching up
Sunday, February 16, 4 pm, Middlebury at Amherst
Last year: 104-101 Amherst (3 OT)

It is fitting that Joey Kizel and Aaron Toomey end their final regular season playing on the same court. Two all-time great NESCAC guards, and the two best guards in the country according to D3Hoops.com, Kizel and Toomey have gone back and forth in epic battles over the past three years. From Kizel’s comeback-sparking steals against Toomey to Toomey’s game-winning plays, these games have not been short on memorable moments. So that’s where our immediate focus will be in this matchup, but while we can count on great games from both point guards, this one will likely be decided by their supporting casts. This late season matchup will be an indicator of which team did a better job of transitioning its talent into a competitive product. As it has the past two years, this game could determine tournament hosting rights.

2013-14 Predicted Winner: Amherst

•••

BATES BOBCATS

2013 record: 10-15, 5-5 (lost in conference quarterfinals)

After making a NESCAC semifinals appearance in 2012, there were some expectations for a bigger year from Bates, but those faded when they lost six non-conference games before January. Bates ended up finishing respectably, led by their conference-leading defense (63.7 ppg allowed), but will have to replace two of their top scorers in forward Ed Bogdanovic (13.4 ppg, 7.3 rpg, 46% FG) and guard Mark Brust (10.0 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 2.9 apg). The returners are led by Luke Matarazzo, a slippery quick point guard who can score (10.8 ppg, 35/34/82 shooting). He is flanked by two talented wing players who both have the potential to be stars: junior Graham Safford (pictured right) and sophomore Mike Boornazian. Safford is most likely to be the feature scorer, as he averaged 11.7 points per game on 42/41/67 shooting last season. Boornazian is bigger, but less dynamic with the ball in hands. Outside of those three, Bates’ top returning scorers are Billy Selmon and Sean Cunningham (7.0 combined points in 30.6 combined minutes per game), which leads to the question: who do the Bobcats start down low? In fact, Bates doesn’t have a single forward or center remaining on its roster who scored a point last season. Freshmen brothers Marcus and Malcolm Delpeche, 6’7” and 6’8” respectively, will get big time opportunities early and could determine this team’s fate. It is likely that the Bobcats go with a four-guard rotation fairly often and hope that at least one of the recruits can jump in quickly. The key for Bates this season is going to be setting the tempo and playing aggressive defense. If it turns into a half-court game, their lack of front court polish will be exposed.

Matching up
Friday, January 10, 8 pm, Bates at Middlebury
Last year: 59-56 Middlebury

The Bates-Middlebury game last year was ugly at times, which is a reflection of Bates controlling the tempo. Their guards are pestering, and this game means that Joey Kizel’s new backcourt mates will be tested early in conference play. Though Bates can be exploited in the half court, the Panthers might not have a half court-identity this year given the relationship between athleticism (lots) and post skills (few) on the team. That said, you can take advantage of height disparities in more ways than half-court post sets. Expect Middlebury to get Dylan Sinnickson and Matt Daley facing the basket in the mid-range, and Hunter Merryman shooting over defenders on the outside. If Middlebury loses its NESCAC home opener vs. Bates, it could be a long season.

2013-14 Predicted Winner: Middlebury

•••

BOWDOIN POLAR BEARS

2013 record: 14-10, 5-5 (lost in conference quarterfinals)

Bowdoin was on track for a big jump this year before a summer injury to star point guard Bryan Hurley put his entire season in jeopardy. The rest of the team has plenty of talent, but Hurley was the distributor who made it all come together, averaging 8.3 assists per game, the second best mark in all of Division III. Hurley’s absence raises several questions. First, how valuable was he to Bowdoin’s success? Can the talented players around Hurley make up for his absence, or was the offense predicated on his unique ball distribution abilities? Our guess is that Bowdoin would have competed with the top tier in the conference this year with Hurley (with a good shot of sneaking into the semifinals), but his absence will put some distance between them and Williams, Amherst, Tufts, and Middlebury.

Senior captains Andrew Madlinger and Matt Matthias are both guards, and will likely take some time at the point, but are used to playing off the ball. Madlinger is an unsung star, averaging 14.3 points per game on 45/42/86 shooting last year. Matthias was similarly efficient (45/42/70) though less proficient (8.4 points per game). The third best offensive weapon will likely be Keegan Pieri, a 6’6” forward who averaged 13.3 points on 50% FG shooting last season. Madlinger, Matthias, and Pieri are going to have to grow accustomed to creating their own shots more, and whether they do so successfully will tell us a lot about their games. The last player to keep an eye on for Bowdoin is John Swords (shown above), the 7’0” center who will be intriguing as long as he remains 7’0” tall. Swords averaged 6.1 points in 15 minutes per game last season, and his peripheral statistics suggest he could be one of the conference’s better big men if he played more minutes. Big centers like Swords mature late, so don’t be surprised if he turns into a force and Bowdoin forges a new identity around an efficient Swords and the scoring wings around him.

Matching up
Sunday, February 9, 4 pm, Bowdoin at Middlebury
Last year: 72-61 Middlebury

You would think that combination of Jack Roberts and Chris Churchill would be the best antidote in the conference for John Swords, but he scored 14 points on 6-6 FG shooting in last year’s matchup. If he is a focal point in the offense by this matchup, Middlebury’s ‘5s’ will have to step up. Outside of that matchup, Middlebury simply has a more complete and talented team than Bowdoin, and should be able to dictate the style of play and execute better than the Polar Bears.

2013-14 Predicted Winner: Middlebury

•••

COLBY MULES

2013 record: 7-17, 3-7 (lost in conference quarterfinals)

If Bowdoin struggles without Hurley, don’t sleep on Colby as the darkhorse winner of the Maine rivalry this year. The Mules return seven of their top eight scorers from last year, and seem to have a good foundational piece in sophomore Chris Hudnut (seen right). Hudnut, a 6’8” center, averaged 12.3 points and 5.3 rebounds in 23 minutes per game last season as a freshman, on a respectable 45% FG shooting. NESCAC centers practically never step into immediate success like Hudnut did last season (a helpful comparison might be Ryan Sharry’s rookie year: 7.7 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 57% FG, 18 mpg), so his performance rightfully has turned some heads. Hudnut was given a lot of touches in a program depleted of talent however, so it’s unclear how much of his production was based on skill as opposed to opportunity. Outside of Hudnut, the most exciting player in Waterville is fellow sophomore Patrick Stewart. The 6’6” forward averaged 7.5 points and 6.7 rebounds on 50/41/75 shooting last season. If Hudnut and Stewart continue to improve, they could form one of the better frontcourts in the conference. What this season will really tell us about Colby is whether they should be on our radar as a top tier contender in a year or two. If Hudnut, Stewart, and the young core around them show that they have committed to the program and have the talent and work ethic to make major strides in their games over the offseason, it will indicate that Colby’s infusion of youth is part of something significant for their future as a NESCAC contender.

Matching up
Friday, February 7, 8 pm, Colby at Middlebury
Last year: 85-62 Middlebury

Last year’s matchup was a blowout, as Colby’s interior defense was exposed. Middlebury bigs Pete Lynch, Jack Roberts, Matt Daley, Jake Nidenberg, and James Jensen combined to shoot 20-29 from the field. While the Colby defense should be improved, enough of the Panthers listed above will be too. This one might be tougher than last year’s, but it will take at least another year before Colby can seriously challenge this caliber of team.

2013-14 Predicted Winner: Middlebury

•••

CONNECTICUT COLLEGE CAMELS

2013 record: 7-16, 0-10

Senior Matt Vadas, a somewhat under-the-radar scoring sensation, averaged 20.2 points per game last season, and is on pace to become Connecticut College’s all-time points leader by season’s end. Vadas’ scoring numbers are not totally contingent on an offense with nowhere else to go, either. He shot a respectable 41/41/77 line and added 7.5 rebounds and 1.4 steals per game last year (compare to Aaron Toomey’s 44/42/89, fewer points, fewer rebounds, and fewer steals), which suggests he is an elite scorer. The problem in New London is that Vadas’s supporting cast is weak. Last year’s star freshman, Jared Schill, has left the program, and that leaves 6’5” sophomore Aaron McBurnie (7.6 ppg, 42% FG) as the top returning scorer. However, senior guard Rob Harrigan returns after a year away from the program. As a sophomore, he led the conference in minutes per game and scored 8.8 points per game, shooting a very efficient 44/45/89. If Schill were still in the mix, Harrigan and Vadas would form a potent wing duo, but with the Camels lacking an established ball handler, their scoring abilities will likely not be maximized. Outside of McBurnie and Harrigan, two seniors, Mason Lopez and Tyrone Turner, with mediocre production but good efficiency are likely to flank Vadas in the Camel offense. Lopez is a smooth-shooter who shot 45/45/80 last year, putting up 7.2 points per game, while Turner shot 47% from the floor but only scored 5.3 points per game. If the Camels are going to make something of 2014 and Matt Vadas’s career, it is going to take Harrigan’s resurgence, a big jump from McBurnie down low, and the surprise emergence of either a distributor or one of their three 6’5” or taller freshman forwards. Otherwise, Vadas isn’t the style of scorer who can will his team to victory — he scores a lot, but we’ve never seen him “take over a game,” which is a distinction worth making — so don’t expect the Camels to make much noise in conference play this year.

Matching up
Sunday, January 19, 4 pm, Middlebury at Connecticut College
Last year: 85-68 Middlebury

Matt Vadas is 7-30 from the field in his career against Middlebury. That is what Nolan Thompson did to opposing scorers (in fact, Vadas’ most successful game vs. the Panthers came when Thompson was returning from his 2012 absence and came off the bench). This season we might get to see the Vadas that has had major success against other opponents over the past three years. By this point in January, we should probably have a good feel for who Jeff Brown relies on as a defender for players like Vadas. The best two-guard defender on the team right now is probably Nate Bulluck, though a Jake Brown, Connor Huff, or James Jensen could come out of position to guard Vadas. It probably will not matter, though, because whether or not Vadas wins his matchup, the Camels cannot stack up with the rest Middlebury’s rotation.

•••

HAMILTON CONTINENTALS

2013 record: 12-12, 3-7

After Joey Kizel and Aaron Toomey, Hamilton sophomore Matt Hart (right) be the best guard in the conference this season. Ultimately, we think Daniel Wohl is more valuable given his contributions on the defensive end, but Hart is the more dangerous offensive player. As a freshman, he averaged 15.3 points per game on 44/37/85 shooting, to go along with strong peripherals. His primary weapon is his mid-range and three-point jumper, which he can hit with little separation because of his high release point. Hart could be the NESCAC’s next All-American guard if he continues developing on his current projection. Last year’s second and third top scorers also return: Greg Newton, a senior point guard who scored 10.5 points per game on an efficient 45/42/78 shooting line, and Peter Kazickas, an undersized forward who shot 54% from the field and scored 7.6 points per game. Joseph Lin, younger brother of Houston Rockets point guard Jeremy Lin, needs to add bulk to his 5’11,” 135 pound frame, but will get rotation minutes after averaging 4.4 points per game last season.

Matching up
Sunday, February 2, 4 pm, Middlebury at Hamilton
Last year: 66-47 Middlebury

Last year’s win was all about Nolan Thompson. The senior scored 18 points on 7-10 shooting, notched his career 1,000th point, and his shut down perimeter defense helped Middlebury limit the Continentals to 47 points, the lowest scoring output for a regular season opponent since 2000. This year will be different, as Hamilton comes back at full strength to host Middlebury sans Thompson. We expect this to be a close matchup, one in which Middlebury will attempt to push the tempo to exploit an athletic advantage, and likely pull away with the win.

2013-14 Predicted Winner: Middlebury

•••

TRINITY BANTAMS

2013 record: 9-15, 2-8

Trinity returns their top four scorers from last season, as the Bantam roster was underclassman-heavy to the extreme in 2012-13. To that point, only Mick Distasio departs due to graduation, and there are no current seniors on this year’s roster. Trinity’s roster is built around two very talented sophomores, Jaquann Starks and Shay Ajayi. Starks, a 5’9” guard, led the team with 10.6 points per game last year, on 42/45/84 shooting. Ajayi is a long 6’5” and has high upside, already producing last year with 8.2 points and 5.5 rebounds per game. Both could be in all-conference range at least by next year. Down low for the Bantams is the 6’8” junior George Papadeas (right), who averaged 7.4 points and 5.1 rebounds per game last season. Papadeas is one of the more intriguing scorers in the league, because he produced those numbers in a limited 15 minutes per game. He should be tested in a bigger role in 2014.

Matching up
Friday, February 14, 8 pm, Middlebury at Trinity
Last year: 66-59 Middlebury

Last year’s game was too close for comfort, as Starks, Ajayi, and Papadeas all put up double figures, and Middlebury struggled from the field (41%). One matchup of intrigue this year might be Jake Brown vs. Jaquann Starks, as the Middlebury freshman, if he gets rotation minutes (we think he will), is the only player on the roster with the quickness to shut down Starks. As for Ajayi, he might see more of Jensen, who can match him athletically and outmatch him physically.

•••

TUFTS JUMBOS

2013 record: 17-9, 7-3 (lost conference semifinals)

The Jumbos’ 2014 prospects took a major hit this offseason when they learned that rising sophomore center Tom Palleschi would no longer be able to play for health reasons. Palleschi, the 2013 NESCAC Rookie of the Year, was a rising star. A physical center with a developing offensive skillset, Palleschi averaged 10.0 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 1.7 blocks per game as a freshman. During conference play, he averaged a dominant 13.7 points per game on 57% shooting. Without Palleschi, Tufts still boasts one of the most talented rosters in the conference. Ben Ferris (right) is an efficient shooting guard who scored 13.3 points per game on 49/44/78 shooting last year. He is supported by dynamic wingman Stephen Haladyna, a 6’5” sophomore with athleticism and plus shooting (52/44/81). Two veteran guards will likely share ball-handling duties in Kwame Firempong and Oliver Cohen. Neither is a strong scorer, but they can distribute (2.8 and 3.6 assists per game, respectively). Both played starter minutes last year, but we expect freshman Tarik Smith to chip into their playing time this upcoming season. Smith is a potential star who will likely arrive game-ready, but he is not Tufts’ most highly touted recruit. That distinction belongs to 6’8” Hunter Sabety, who will be asked to take Palleschi’s role in the offense, and upon whose performance the Jumbos’ fate likely hinges. Because of Smith and Sabety, Tufts has the talent to compete for a NESCAC title and make a run in the NCAA Tournament. Even without Palleschi, this is an up-and-coming program that will probably make its presence known nationally in 2014.

Matching up
Sunday, January 12, 4 pm, Tufts at Middlebury
Last year: 70-69 Middlebury

Middlebury has never seen the real Ben Ferris, because he has always been unable to get out from under Nolan Thompson’s smothering defense. Ferris has 8 points and 2 made field goals in his career against the Panthers. This year, Ferris will likely be the center of the offense, which will make it that much more difficult to stop Haladyna, Sabety, and company. This is going to be Middlebury’s biggest challenge of the first half of conference play, and could have a major say in conference tournament seeding. Don’t be surprised if Tufts claims its first win against the Panthers since 2006.

2013-14 Predicted Winner: Middlebury

•••

WESLEYAN CARDINALS

2013 record: 12-13, 4-6 (lost conference quarterfinals)

Believe it or not, last year’s mediocre Wesleyan team came into the season nationally-ranked and expected to challenge Amherst and Middlebury for the conference title. They returned three eventual 1,000-point scorers in their senior class, and had lost in the conference semifinals the year before. What happened? The seniors regressed and played inconsistently, and nobody filled the depth roles behind them. It was a poor reflection on the program, and leaves them in an ugly place headed into 2014. A sub-.500 team without its top three returning scorers cannot compete in this conference. Making matters worse is the departure of two underclassmen, Julian Harris and Avery Robinson, who would have projected into starting roles. Forwards Glen Thomas and Rashid Epps are the best returners, but the two forwards combined for a mere 9.7 points per game last season. Bryan Bartner is a great outside shooter but has no other plus skills. The biggest bright spot is highly touted recruit Harry Rafferty, who will almost certainly start at point guard from day one. Rafferty can’t be expected to carry the team out of mediocrity, though. It’s going to be a long season in Middletown.

Matching up
Friday, January 17, 8 pm, Middlebury at Wesleyan
Last year: 78-77 Middlebury (OT), 61-49 Middlebury (Conference quarterfinals)

Mike Callaghan and Shasha Brown were tough matchups for Middlebury last year, at times. The Panthers will prefer to play the younger, less talented Cardinals squad that hosts them in mid-January. As long as Rafferty hasn’t turned his teammates from water to wine in two months, this will be one of many conference losses for Wesleyan.

2013-14 Predicted Winner: Middlebury

•••

WILLIAMS EPHS

2013 record: 26-5, 9-1 (lost conference finals, lost national quarterfinals)

The 2014 Ephs are a masterpiece. We said prior to last season that Williams was drastically underrated (most observers actually had Williams finishing fourth or fifth in the conference) and predicted that they would finish in the top 10 in the nation. The Ephs came through with conference final and national quarterfinal appearances. This year, they bring back an incredibly talented roster, led by two of the best seniors in the country, Michael Mayer (right) and Taylor Epley. Mayer, 6’9,” is a preseason favorite for Conference and National Player of the Year, coming off of a season in which he posted a superstar line: 17.7 ppg, 8.8 rpg, 2.3 apg, 1.2 bpg, and 57/37/76 shooting. Mayer is very skilled for a player his size, a capable ball-handler and passer with an array of post moves and very soft touch around the basket, to go along with an improving three-point shot. If Williams decides to lean on him more, Mayer could have a monster senior season. Epley is a pure scorer, a 6’4” lefty with tremendous range and a nice ability to finish near the basket. He scored 18.5 points per game last season on 50/43/84 shooting, and is underrated as a defender. Then there’s Daniel Wohl, one of our favorite players to watch in the conference, a lanky, athletic, 6’6” guard/forward who started to really put it together last year. His final stats, 10.2 points per game, 5.5 rebounds per game, and 53/42/69 shooting, do not reflect his realizable potential. Wohl could be a Willy Workman type presence for the Ephs this year. Senior John Weinheimer and junior Hayden Rooke-Ley are likely to be the other starters. Weinheimer scored 4.4. points in 17 minutes per game last season, while Rooke-Ley missed all of last season but was a sharp scorer (7.0 points on 46/44/90 shooting) off the bench as a freshman.

Behind those two is a lot of talent, starting with Duncan Robinson, a phenomenally talented freshman with Division I length and shooting range. Robinson was touted by some as the best non-Division I player in his recruiting class, after his performance and growth this past season turned heads. This year, it is reasonable to expect the 6’7” guard to play around 20 minutes per game and take (and make) a ton of threes. Also in the mix off the bench are point guards Luke Thoreson and Mike Greenman, both of whom will compete for playing time behind Rooke-Ley. Finally, there is Ryan Kilcullen, the 6’7” junior forward who transferred from Boston College before last season and who would probably be one of the more hyped players in any other program. Kilcullen is talented and should contribute as the top front-court reserve.

Because the talent is overwhelming in Williamstown, it is easy to overlook some potential problem areas, but sports are always more complicated than a superficial preview suggests, so it is worth considering some possible sources of trouble for the Ephs. In other words, what might stop this team, which we believe to be head and shoulders above the rest of the conference, from winning the conference and reaching the national title game? Besides the obvious caveat for injuries, one concern is that this group of players is a little short on big game experience because of their down 2012 season. Epley and Rooke-Ley were contributors to the 2011 Final Four team, but none on this squad have won a conference title or a game in Salem. Small potatoes, obviously, but maybe not when you match up with a powerhouse Illinois Wesleyan team that is more accustomed to winning in the postseason. The more serious concerns for Williams might be defense and point guard play. They have a strong zone defensive system that works well against most opponents, but can be exploited in individual matchups. If the outside shooting goes cold, or a physical center pushes Mayer out of his comfort zone, the Ephs defense probably isn’t good enough to win them games. Amherst’s 2013 championship team was built similarly — a juggernaut offense and a decent defense — so it certainly isn’t a cause for major concern. We also think the concern at the point guard is overstated. While Nate Robertson’s leadership and distribution went under-appreciated, we also believe Rooke-Ley, who made an immediate impact as a freshman before missing all of last season, will fill the void left by Robertson. We expect Coach Maker to have this team running like a well-oiled machine by conference play. They should be the favorites in every game they play up to Salem.

Matching up
Friday, January 31, 8 pm, Williams at Middlebury
Last year: 64-63 Williams, 87-80 Williams (OT) (Conference semifinals)

Middlebury’s Jack Roberts and James Jensen have both slowed Mayer in the past (Roberts by staying disciplined and keeping Mayer in front of him, Jensen by fronting him and winning the battle for position before the pass arrives). The Panthers’ best chance of stopping Williams is to rely on those two down-low and stay tight to the scorers on the outside. If Mayer draws help consistently, the Ephs have already won. Offensively, Kizel has had success against Williams throughout his career and likely will again. This is a team worth pushing at a faster tempo, and maybe even full-court-pressing, to optimize Middlebury’s superior athleticism and inferior half-court offense, but Williams still holds a significant edge.

2013-14 Predicted Winner: Williams

JOEY KIZEL  •  6’1” (Senior, Guard) 33.7 mpg, 14.3 ppg, 4.3 apg, 3.9 rpg, 49/42/79

Kizel, a preseason First Team All-American and one of the most complete players in the country, has been the NESCAC’s most efficient scoring guard, and the conference’s best finisher the past two seasons. After a blisteringly prodcutive sophomore season—Kizel’s shooting splits were 54/51/91 (that’s field goal, three-point and free throw percentage, respectively)—the New Jersey native had a slow start to the 2012-13, battling nagging injuries that affected him all year. After a quiet non-conference run, however, Kizel returned, if not quite to 2012 form, close to it, averaging 16.3 points per game during the 10-game stretch, while shooting 49 percent from the field and 47 percent from beyond the arc. Most notably, Kizel further cemented his legacy as one of the best big-game players in Middlebury history, with dazzling performances against Amherst, Cortland and Ithaca, the latter of which was strikingly similar to his late-game heroics (ignoring for a moment the final outcome) against Scranton. Kizel has been the Panthers emotional leader the past two seasons and will raise his game when the team needs him most.

As the lone captain this year, and with the departure of Thompson, Wolfin and Lynch, Kizel will be called on often. He will likely play off the ball more this season, particularly early, to provide a greater scoring presence. The challenge will be balancing his urge to do it all himself and deferring too much to his teammates. If history is any indicator, however, Kizel will develop that understanding with his teammates quickly and pick his spots wisely. Kizel has always been a great finisher around the basket—and anywhere on the court, really—but if there’s an area of his game that appears to be improved it’s his confidence finishing with either hand around the basket. Again, if possible, his game looks even smoother than seasons past. Some players (Ryan Sharry comes to mind) look relaxed on the court and make things look simple; others, like Nolan Thompson, can convey just how arduous basketball can be. Kizel is one of the few players we’ve ever watched, who routinely does both. Very rarely do you watch a player clearly expending maximum energy simply bringing the ball down the court against backcourt pressure, then beat his man and glide to the basket.

•••

JAMES JENSEN  •  6’6” (Senior, Forward) 21.1 mpg, 7.0 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 1.0 bpg, 0.8 spg, 44/–/74

Jensen’s calling card the past three seasons has been his defensive versatility and length on offense. He will play a bigger role this season on both ends of the floor, stepping into Nolan Thompson’s shoes—and Tim Edwards before that—as Middlebury’s primary defensive stopper. While Jensen does not have the lateral quickness that Nolan possessed, he can guard players up and down the lineup, from Sha Brown to Michael Mayer, both of whom he guarded effectively last year. In particular, the way he hounded Mayer a season ago, taking the ultra-talented Williams center out of his comfort zone in the second half, was one of the single best performances of the season. Jensen, too, had clutch moments, most memorably blocking Aaron Toomey’s buzzer-beater attempt at the end of the first overtime in the Amherst game, but also at the free throw line, a spot where Jensen improved drastically from 2011-12, particularly to close out games.

An injury he sustained early last year will keep Jensen out of the lineup for at least the first weekend of competition, which is a considerable blow, particularly given the difficulty of the early season schedule. When Jensen returns in late November or December, however, he will be a key cog in Middlebury’s season. His reputation lies on the defensive end of the floor—and for good reason—but the 6’6” swing man is more talented offensively than most people realize. He has contributed primarily as a slash-and-finisher, rivaled only by Kizel’s in terms of an ability to finish through and around contact, but his offensive game has developed considerably. If defenses sag off Jensen, playing him to drive, his midrange game will prove plenty effective to keep them honest. While not a shot creator, Jensen moves exceptionally well without the ball and his activity will create better looks than many players who can create their own shot ultimately receive.

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JACK ROBERTS  •  6’8” (Senior, Center) 19.7 mpg, 4.7 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 2.24 bgp, 60/0/47

Three years on, Roberts remains something of a mystery. His talent is undeniable, particularly on the defensive end, where he checked Amherst forward Alan Williamson—likely the most athletic player in the conference—during the triple overtime game and, later, the vertically challenged, but bruising Landon Gamble in the Elite Eight game versus North Central. In fact, the final game of 2012-13 was Roberts’s best performance of the season, and maybe of his career. On Division III’s biggest stage, Roberts rose to the occasion, playing stellar defense on one end and pouring in 10 points on 5-6 shooting on the other.

It’s difficult to know if the North Central performance is a precursor of better things to come from Roberts, who gives the Panthers a dominant defensive presence inside when he plays well, but can also frustrate with mistakes on the defensive end and poor shot selection at times offensively. Despite the graduation of Lynch, there will likely be greater competition at the ‘5’ and Roberts will need to perform on the floor to hold off Chris Churchill and, more likely, Matt Daley for the starting spot.

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HUNTER MERRYMAN  •  6’6” (Junior, Forward) 15.9 mpg, 8.3 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 50/43/79

We’ll say it up front: Merryman is much more than a three-point specialist. While he continues to improve on the defensive end, where Merryman will (but shouldn’t) surprise people is as a back-to-the-basket scorer. His range is cavernous—though with the arrival of Matt St. Amour, no longer the deepest on the team—but Merryman was also effective as a post scorer, where he was able to back down smaller defenders or work around bigger, slower players. Though he struggled last year when asked to make plays in space, both offensively and defensively, Merryman impressed me on both ends of the floor when he needed to use his size, either to create space offensively or to body bigger players defensively. His shooting numbers dipped after the halfway mark in 2012-13, but his struggles coincided closely with a broken nose that forced him to wear a facemask the rest of the year. Like Jensen and Kizel, Merryman also battled a number of debilitating injuries that required offseason attention.

Entering his junior season healthy and with a clear path to minutes and perhaps a spot in the starting lineup, Merryman could be primed for a breakout season. Few players of his size are as polished offensively both around the basket and beyond the three-point line. Consistency and shot creation will be the key areas of improvement for the California native, who needs to demonstrate greater ability to put the ball on the floor and make shots when the defense closes out on him. Expect him to find a home at the ‘4’ with Middlebury playing more three forward sets this season than in years past.

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DYLAN SINNICKSON  •  6’5” (Junior, Forward) 2011-12: 11.4 mpg, 5.7 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 53/0/75

Why will Jeff Brown play three-forward sets more frequently? Because there is a logjam at the forward position, where Sinnickson, Merryman, Jensen and others, including the next player on the list, will compete for minutes. Sinnickson returns to action for the first time since his freshman year during the 2011-12 season after a broken arm sidelined him last year and a short-lived football hiatus delayed his return to basketball activities this fall. While Sinnickson was gone, he shouldn’t be forgotten. As a freshman, he shot 57 percent from the floor, with most of his points coming around the basket or the result of his high-point release midrange jump shot that he utilized to great effect. Indeed, he progressed so far as a freshman that he was a member of the closing lineup against Scranton in the Sweet 16.

The Sinnickson who returns should be an improved version of the player we last saw play over a year ago, bringing with him his relentless energy and above-the-rim athleticism, but also a more refined offensive game that could include an effective three-point shot. How Coach Brown intends to utilize Sinnickson and the degree of freedom he will grant the 6’5” junior remains to be seen, but if Sinnickson returns to form and demonstrates that he can play within the offense, he has a shot not just to close games, but to start them as well.

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MATT DALEY  •  6’8” (Sophomore, Forward) 5.7 mpg, 2.1 ppg, 1.6 rpg, 53/0/75

If one player epitomizes the potential of the 2013-14 Middlebury basketball team it’s Daley, who will have an enormous say in whether the team finishes as a fringe Tournament team or a national championship contender. Simply, no player on the roster has a higher ceiling than Daley, who is as gifted an athlete as Jeff Brown (with a huge assist from Alex Popp) has recruited. After a year developing in the program, the question is to what extent Daley will realize that potential. If you stop to watch practice, there are times you can’t help but notice Daley, who dunks at game speed on a routine basis in big-man drills and can run the floor and pull up for transition threes in two-on-nothing drills. He has a deft touch around the basket, a solid midrange game and tremendous range and fluidity for his size. His skills have been less apparent, however, in five-on-five situations where he will sometimes take a back seat and become passive offensively.

In terms of talent, Daley can go toe-to-toe with any big man in the NESCAC; in terms of ability, he has not demonstrated that he can translate the talent to game situations and be a dominant player. Then again, few big men in the NESCAC have put the league on notice their freshman year. What Daley accomplishes as a sophomore will likely be a barometer for Middlebury’s success as a team and is undoubtedly one of the things to watch as the season progresses.

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MATT ST. AMOUR  •  6’3” (Freshman, Guard)

Speaking of high ceilings and immensely gifted recruits, St. Amour boasts a skill set unlike any Middlebury player in recent memory. There have been other great scorers with NBA three-point range, to be certain, but what ultimately will separate St. Amour from other players—in the same way it has for Kizel—is his efficiency. St. Amour is a dead-eye shooter, with a quick release and tremendous understanding of offensive spacing, which will lead to plenty of open looks when playing alongside a player of Kizel’s caliber. That in itself should be enough to secure the Swanton, Vermont star a spot in the rotation, but only scratches the surface of what St. Amour’s impact could be. A gifted passer with great vision—likely aided by a stellar career as a striker on the soccer field—it is difficult to imagine St. Amour not making an immediate impact on the offensive end. What may limit his effectiveness and ability to make a substantial difference is his progression, or lack thereof, on the defensive end.

Playing Vermont high school basketball, St. Amour was asked to do virtually everything on the floor—no, really—with the exception of consistently guarding NESCAC-caliber players. Removed from the pressure of having his team sink or swim based on his performance every night, the Missisquoi Valley product will have an opportunity to focus more closely on a number of different aspects of his game. Defense and, to a lesser degree, his ability to finish at the rim, are the two areas of his game that are least polished. Having said that, St. Amour displays incredible poise for a first-year player and appears ready for the challenges and pressures that come with playing right away. Twice the Vermont Gatorade Player of the Year, St. Amour is one of six Vermont players ever to score 2,000 career points. The 6’3” guard averaged 30.7 points per game, 11.9 rebounds per game and 5.7 assists his senior year.

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JAKE BROWN  •  5’10” (Freshman, Guard)

With all the talent this team boasts, it is Jake Brown, nephew of coach Jeff Brown, who has people buzzing as the preseason comes to a close. Brown is a natural point guard, with strong ball-handling skills and the tempo and quickness to lead the fast break. What has really stood out, however, is his defense, which has been suffocating in practice. Brown is quick both with his feet and hands and will pester opposing point guards with his defensive intensity. Two skill sets could not exist in better unison, as Brown’s ability to force turnovers and turn them into transition breaks is a weapon this team, with its length and athleticism, could use to great effect.

In order to earn a spot as one of the first guards off the bench and eventually compete for a starting spot, the diminutive guard will have to demonstrate an ability to knock down open shots. Particularly on attempts from beyond the arc, Brown has a number of moving parts that complicate and slow his shot release. If he fails to knock down shots, defenses will drop underneath him, taking away his driving opportunities and negate much of his slash-and-kick ability. Brown will find minutes because his defensive approach and ball-handling skills cannot be squandered, but unless he demonstrates great consistency and shot-making ability, his role will be reserved to a second-team contributor capable of coming off the bench and providing a spark, but little more.

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NATE BULLUCK  •  6’4” (Senior, Guard) 7.6 mpg, 2.8 ppg, 0.6 rpg, 35/36/83

In the past that role has been reserved for Bulluck, an explosive athlete with a volatile game. There’s rarely a dull moment when Bulluck is on the floor, usually as a wild card off the bench who can provide a boost with his instant energy and athleticism, or run right into trouble—most often in the form of a stationary defender preparing to take a charge. Despite his sometimes perplexing performances, Bulluck is an incredible luxury for Jeff Brown on both sides of the ball when utilized correctly. Because it is usually evident from the first time he touches the ball the degree to which Bulluck will be effective, Jeff Brown can adjust his expectations and patience accordingly. Particularly when Middlebury trails or starts flat, Brown has turned to Bulluck, who has helped engineer a number of Middlebury runs—most notably against Amherst in the NESCAC title game in 2011-12, when the Panthers trailed by 14 late in the second quarter, only for Bulluck and company to lead a late charge to cut the Lord Jeffs’ lead to two at the half.

In the lead up to his senior season, Bulluck has adopted a vocal leadership role and has improved his range and ball-handling significantly—an important consideration given Nolan Thompson’s vacated role as the third ball handler the past two seasons. Further, Bulluck’s style of play, fits the makeup of this team, should the coaching staff elect to push the ball more this year than in the past. In order to secure a more significant role, however, Bulluck needs to do more than demonstrate his dribbling ability and deeper range; more importantly he has to prove he will be reliable when on the floor. Until then, he will remain the ace up Jeff Brown’s sleeve, capable of turning a game on its head—one way or another—in a short period of time.

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HENRY PENDERGAST  •  6’3” (Sophomore, Guard) 6.6 mpg, 1.6 ppg, 1.0 apg, 0.9 rpg, 44/38/30

Physically, Pendergast has all the tools to play a significant role and he will have an extended opportunity to make his case for a starting spot next to Kizel in the backcourt. While Pendergast’s athleticism is not in question, other still-developing areas of his game have limited his ability to take full advantage of it in games. Last season, Pendergast caught our eye with a monster dunk over Green Mountain College early in the season, but that kind of electric athleticism, which we hoped to see more of, has been the exception rather than the rule thus far. In part, Pendergast has struggled to beat defenders off the dribble, allowing opposing players to stay in front of him and limiting the opportunities for his athleticism to take over. At 6’3”, Pendergast has elite size, but not elite quickness for a point guard. Pendergast can mitigate his lack of point-guard quickness by improving his ball-handling, in particular his tendency to dribble the ball high, which minimizes his window of opportunity to beat his man and get to the rim, where he is most effective. Finally, Pendergast’s inconsistent jump shot, has allowed teams to drop off the ball and play underneath him. Improving his shot was the Connecticut native’s top priority this summer, which could create more driving lanes for Pendergast if defenses have to honor his outside game.

Given that Kizel will likely play off the ball more, Pendergast should see extended minutes early in the season so the coaching staff can better assess his game-readiness. Should Pendergast impress, he could assume a large part of the role vacated by Wolfin, as a distributor-first, scorer-second point guard who is the primary ball handler and provides a physical, active defensive presence. Like almost everyone up and down the roster, the talent is evident and the question is whether it will be realized. And in Pendergast’s case it can only help that he appears to be a great teammate with strong leadership qualities.

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CONNOR HUFF  •  6’4” (Sophomore, Guard) 5.5 mpg, 3.1 ppg, 0.4 apg, 1.5 rpg, 59/50/69

Every time Huff takes the floor, he seems to make plays. It’s not always easy to explain how he puts himself in position or why he knocks down shots, but the sophomore forward—who is making the transition to the ‘4’—comes from the Peter Lynch mold as a deceptively productive player who doesn’t jump off the floor at you as an athlete, but is always around the ball and making the most of his opportunities. Huff doesn’t have the same potential as a Daley or Pendergast, but so far he appears to be the most consistent player of the 2012 recruiting class. As a freshman last year he knocked down 59 percent of his shots—spread across the floor—albeit in a very limited sample size. While impossible to extrapolate his freshman numbers to project his sophomore season, what Huff does possess is a poise that suggests he belongs on the floor. Perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise from a player who was voted the New York city high school player New York Post pollers would most want to take a game-winning shot his senior season in high school. Along with Pendergast, Huff stood out to us in Middlebury’s win over Green Mountain for his defensive intensity and unmatched effort in Middlebury’s blowout victory.

Competing with Jensen, Sinnickson, Merryman and, to an extent Daley and Jake Nidenberg, for minutes in the front court, Huff might be the odd man out in the rotation. However, if Jeff Brown chooses to extend his rotation this season and go deeper down his bench, expect Huff to make plays as soon as he steps onto the court.

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JAKE NIDENBERG  •  6’6” (Sophomore, Forward) 4.6 mpg, 1.0 ppg, 1.4 rpg, 33/0/43

Alongside Jake Brown, Nidenberg has turned heads during the preseason. Whether he has the combination of size, talent and consistency to earn a spot at the back end of the rotation remains in question, but Nidenberg is, at the very least, a player to keep an eye on down the road. At 6’6” and 230 pounds, Nidenberg is going to move people on the floor, but he he has also developed an effective outside shot that could allow him to space the formation and draw bigger defenders away from the basket. In some ways, Nidenberg’s game is the complement to Merryman’s: the focus is around the basket for the sophomore, who will play more often with his back to he basket, but he can also take defenders out of the paint, step back and knock down the three as well.

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CHRIS CHURCHILL  •  6’9” (Junior, Center) 5.9 mpg, 1.2 ppg, 1.1 rpg, 60/–/83

A year ago, we were hoping that Churchill would make the sophomore leap and challenge Roberts for the starting center spot. Unfortunately for the 6’9” big man, he spent much of the summer recovering from mononucleosis and never really found a rhythm or role, other than as a reserve center capable of spelling Roberts. He has great size, soft touch around the basket and runs the floor well for a player of that magnitude. While there wasn’t one performance to point to his sophomore year, Churchill is a skilled 6’9”, 220-pound center—a combination that often necessitates greater patience and sometimes leads to a late-blooming emergence. Having coached Andrew Locke—who accomplished more his freshman and sophomore years, but evolved into a truly dominant player on both sides of the floor his senior year—Jeff Brown will likely want to see how Churchill has developed over the last two seasons. He likely won’t supplant Roberts or Daley at the ‘5’, but Churchill could be a key cog in a possible three-man rotation at center.

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DEAN BRIERLEY  •  6’5” (Junior, Guard) 6.6 mpg, 1.5 ppg, 0.7 rpg, 33/32/67

Brierley struggled through a disappointing sophomore season, slowed by injuries, that saw him play just 6.6 minutes per game after a promising start to his freshman year that included a 20-point outburst against Southern Vermont. During his time at Middlebury, Brierley has been a relentless worker, seemingly always in the gym working on his shot. Unfortunately the hardwork has not translated to game action, where Brierley has struggled to make shots or contribute in other ways. At 6’5”, Brierley has strong ball-handling skills and, like Merryman, can shoot over smaller defenders. If he can regain his form—a big if, to be certain—he would give Middlebury the option to run another diverse lineup on the floor with a bigger backcourt presence.

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LUIS ALVAREZ  •  6’1” (Senior, Guard) 2010-11: 8.1 mpg, 2.6 ppg, 1.0 rpg, 44/20/82

Luis returns for his fifth season after receiving an injury exemption while sitting out almost all of last year. A slashing guard who pesters opposing ball handlers, Alvarez provides depth and experience to a largely unproven guard rotation. Injuries, however, have sidetracked a once promising career. In 2009, as a freshman, Alvarez was a rotation contributor for much of the season, playing over 9 minutes per game off the bench—the eighth highest mark on the team. After a sophomore season that saw his minutes reduced, Alvarez has played in just three games total. Healthy once again, Alvarez’s biggest impact will likely again be his presence on the bench, where he is a respected voice and holds his teammates to a high standard.

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BRYAN JONES  •  6’1” (Freshman, Guard)

Jones, the first and, for a while, only committed recruit from the 2013 class has had a solid, if unspectacular, preseason. Because he isn’t game ready to the same degree as St. Amour and Brown, he hasn’t received as much attention in the lead up to the season. The foundation for a multiple-year starter is there, however. Jones commands himself well on the floor, has a good understanding of how to run the fast break and finds open teammates. Built like a football player, Brown finishes well around the basket through contact and should be able to hold his own when he does see the floor. The area of his game that needs the most improvement is his outside shooting, though Jones is a solid player in almost all aspects of the game.

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LIAM NAUGHTON  •  6’1” (Freshman, Guard)

Middlebury’s first walk on since Nolan Thompson, Naughton has been a pleasant surprise during the preseason. He already boasts a great midrange game—he can create his own shot and get shots off from a variety of different angles—and looks like he belongs on the floor. The proficiency of his midrange game will give him an opportunity to contribute down the line—perhaps not this season, but certainly in future years. Naughton may not be Nolan Thompson—his game is more similar in many ways to Matt Hart —but he could be another Middlebury walk on that has an outsized impact.

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ALBERT NASCIMENTO  •  6’1” (Senior, Guard) 5.5 mpg, 1.9 ppg, 0.5 rpg, 32/29/78

Nascimento possesses a pretty stroke from beyond the arc and is a decent outside shooter, with better range than accuracy. The Brazilian played in significant situations last year, including closing against Amherst and providing a spark of the bench against Wesleyan by knocking down a pair of threes. An up-and-down tempo may also give him an opportunity to play more as the pace fits his style of play.

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EAMON CUDDY  •  6’7” (Junior, Forward) 2011-12: 2.8 mpg, 1.2 ppg, 0.8 rpg 100/–/–

If Cuddy can ever return to health, another big if, he could inspire a lot of “Where did he come from?” questions with his play. While athletically limited, Cuddy has a diverse array of post moves that, when healthy, he has used very effectively against bigger defenders in practice. It’s unlikely Cuddy will have any impact on this season, but if he can heal completely down the line, he could make an impact as a senior.

Note to our readers: We chose to start our preview of the 2013-14 basketball season by taking a moment to reflect on what won’t be there—namely Nolan Thompson, Jake Wolfin and Peter Lynch. By doing so, we hope to reflect further on what we know about this year’s team and what years past can tell us about the future. Below we’ve included a segment of our radio show during which we interviewed Nolan, Jake and Pete about their careers at Middlebury. The three graduated captains compiled a program-best 104 wins, 4 NCAA Tournament berths, two trips to Salem and a NESCAC title. While the accolades speak to what the group accomplished, their impact on the program will be remembered in other ways.

Four years ago few people knew that Jeff Brown had recruited — or mostly recruited — three players who would form the nucleus of the winningest group in the history of Middlebury basketball. Jake Wolfin was a familiar name and an intriguing prospect for those who closely followed New England recruiting news, but Peter Lynch’s commitment to Middlebury drew little fanfare and fewer expectations. Nolan Thompson, who, four years later headlined the class, meanwhile, wasn’t even on the team when he got to campus and was just another hopeful walk-on. Could he be a practice player who eventually carved out a role as a junior or a senior? Possibly, but that was the extent of any reasonable expectations for a player who was lightly-recruited even within his home state of Ohio.

Flash forward a couple of months and Nolan Thompson and Jake Wolfin are starting for a team with expectations of winning a NESCAC championship and making its third straight appearance in the NCAA Tournament. That first season wasn’t always pretty or effective — Wolfin had a penchant for throwing the ball away, either by trying to thread the needle with pinpoint passes or pulling up for an ill-advised transition three, while Thompson looked overmatched at times on both ends of the floor — but it was an important first step in the development of two of the most decorated backcourt players in program history.

Lynch, meanwhile, worked in relative anonymity for his first two seasons, developing behind Andrew Locke, Ryan Sharry and Jamal Davis, who collectively formed Middlebury’s most talented front court in recent memory. When Lynch did play early in his career it sent the crowd searching for number 44 in their programs and by the time they had found his name, Lynch had often been whistled for a foul. In his first two seasons Lynch averaged a shrill 5.2 fouls per 40 minutes, leading the team in fouls per minute — an inauspicious beginning that caused many to wonder if Lynch had the size, talent or discipline to be a significant or consistent contributor.

Lynch, then, perhaps even more than Thompson, represents what someone can accomplish when one works tirelessly to improve one’s game. Russ Reilly said this spring that Lynch “came as close as any athlete I’ve ever coached to reaching his god-given abilities.”  Ultimately that is what made Lynch, Wolfin and Thompson remarkable. While it’s fitting that they won more games than any other four-year class, their contribution would have been no less significant (if somewhat less dramatic) had they won 103 games, or 99 games 0r 70. The recent success Middlebury has enjoyed is as much due to the culmination of great character and commitment as it is talent. There are certain individuals — Mike Walsh, Ben Rudin, Tim Edwards and now Nolan Thompson, to name a few — who have willed the program to new levels, the force of their character every bit as important as their skill on the court.

While other classes have had tremendous success, what made this class unique was that all three guys were tremendous leaders, as well. Perhaps because Nolan was the most visible and exceptional of the three, we, and others, underrated the importance of Wolfin and Lynch as leaders. What I noticed in our interview with all three of them (which can be heard above) was how seriously and intentionally they approached practice and the time they spent with their other teammates. Each year Nolan chose a different player to mentor and introduce to the program. Last year he worked with Dean Brierley and this year it was Henry Pendergast. Whether Brierley and Pendergast ultimately have successful careers at Middlebury remains to be seen, but they have developed a reputation as two guys who are constantly in the gym working on their games, on a team that prides itself on being the best-prepared group in the country. It’s one thing, therefore, to be the hardest-working guy on a team, as Nolan was. It’s altogether another thing to instill that same dedication into the fabric of the team by taking a personal involvement in the growth of players who were unlikely to ever seriously impact the team’s success during Nolan’s final two seasons.

Jake, meanwhile, will be remembered for his love of winning. At the risk of sounding cliché, there are certain people who love winning and others who hate losing. (Gregg Popovich spoke about this during the NBA Finals last year). I never asked Jake this, but I always got the sense that Jake loved winning more than he hated losing. His jump shot, which was inconsistent over the course of his career, was never better than in big moments. Nolan and Pete talked about how Jake wanted to take every big shot — both in practice and in games. This year alone he hit shots that altered the flow of the game late against Williams, Amherst, Cortland and Ithaca, four of the five most important games Middlebury played last season. What people didn’t see, however, was how regularly Jake did exactly that in practice as well.

What’s immediately apparent about all three guys — and this is true for all great teammates — is that their absence will be as noticeable in practice as it will be come game time. Perhaps nobody understands this better than Peter Lynch, who spent two years essentially as a practice player, developing behind Andrew Locke and Ryan Sharry. Not gifted with great height or Division I athleticism, Lynch worked his way first into the rotation, then into the starting lineup, and ultimately into the Middlebury record book by becoming the best practice player he could. His offensive game was defined by his unrivaled footwork, which led to a wide array of post moves and scoring looks that he otherwise wouldn’t have had. Like Thompson’s leadership and Wolfin’s on-court demeanor, Lynch’s offensive skill set was a product of his personality and his dedication to improving in practice.

More than the 104 career wins, four NCAA Tournament berths and even the NESCAC title, the legacy this group leaves is a commitment to practice and devotion to team that is unmatched by any other group I’ve ever been around. Thompson, Wolfin and Lynch will be missed, but their legacy will be far more tangible than a banner hanging in Pepin and a note in the record books; it will be felt every day in practice by their teammates who assume the responsibility of passing it on to the next freshman class.

With two days to go before Middlebury takes the court for its season opener, we will be rolling out our basketball preview here on the blog throughout the next 48 hours. There is plenty to cover, as Middlebury faces its toughest non-conference schedule in recent history, and roster uncertainty abounds. With the loss of Nolan Thompson, Jake Wolfin, and Peter Lynch, there are 90 minutes per game up for grabs, and three talent-infused recruiting classes inherit the program’s high expectations. The combination of limited experience and abundant talent could result in higher highs and lower lows than we have been accustomed to the past couple of years. Outside of senior Joey Kizel’s consistent excellence as an offensive playmaker, individual roles are uncertain. Jeff Brown faces the difficult task of shuffling lineups and creating opportunities while challenging his team against two top 25 opponents in November. What this means is that nobody, inside or outside of the program, really knows what the shape and potential of this team will be come January. It’s going to be an exciting and unpredictable year. With that caveat, we will be profiling every player on the roster, projecting roles and opportunities, and previewing the conference, team-by-team, and often player-by-player. Check in between now and Friday for new content as the excitement peaks for the 2013-14 season.