Tunisia’s Revolution: Five Years On, What Lies Ahead

Published: January 20, 2016

Panelists: Ambassador Faycal Gouia (Embassy of the Republic of Tunisia); Amy Hawthorne (Project on Middle East Democracy); Scott Mastic (International Republican Institute); Joyce Kasee-Mills (U.S. Institute of Peace)

Moderator: Linda Bishai (U.S. Institute of Peace)

Summary:

Tunisia’s Revolution: Five Years On, What Lies Ahead, is a talk presented by the United States Institute of Peace. Five years after the fall of the Ben Ali regime many issues still remain unresolved within Tunisia. As the world looks to the Middle East for a sign of stability it is becoming important for Tunisia to be seen as a success. The panelist reflect on the work of the past five years and look ahead at the problems to come. The majority of the commentary towards the current government and the transition is positive. All of the panelist, except for Ambassador Gouia, are not natural born Tunisian’s and all can be considered to have strong western influences. With this prospective in mind, the talk is very interesting and shines a light onto the future that some has envisioned for Tunisia.

Opening Remarks:

The opening remarks are given by Ambassador William Taylor. Ambassador Taylor introduces the panelists and outlines the format of the talk. The talk will start with a moderated conversation and move onto a series of questions from the audience. A special video message from Congressman David Schweikert, Co-Chair of the House Tunisia Caucus, is also played. Schweikert is extremely positive about the post Ali transition and calls Tunisia the “one true great success” of the Arab Spring. Schweikert outlines how important the success of Tunisia is to the rest of the world and recognizes that there are challenges ahead. He specifically note that the Western world will be looking for Tunisia to open up it’s markets and reform it’s economic policies. The Congressmen ends his address with the need for Tunisia to be the “shinning beacon” of the Arab Spring.

Moderated Discussion:

• What are the indicators that Tunisia is in a great place? What are the positive indicators?

All the panelist point to the free and fair elections and the peaceful transition of power as the most obvious success. Each panelist has a slightly unique perspective on how these success were achieved.

Hawthorne points out that the lack of a political motivated army was a key to the success of the Tunisian transition. She also states that the ability of the Tunisian political class to agree to include Ennahda was a crucial decision to open a truly democratic transition. Mastic agrees with Hawthorne and goes on too congratulate Ennahda’s ability to compromise at several sticking points within the transitional process.

Mastic sees consensus and pragmatism as the two key’s that lead to the transition. The ability of the secularist and the Ennahda party to reach consensus and finish the constitution was a huge step towards democracy. Mastic also mentions the importance of public dialogue throughout the transition. Kasee-Mills agree’s with the importance of dialogue and also points out the role that civil society played in pushing the political scene forward.

• Is Tunisia prepared for decentralization and for local governments to take more control?

Hawthorne does a beautiful job of putting this question into prospective. She states that the entire purpose of democracy is to break up and distribute power. She, and the rest of the panelists, see’s decenterilatazion as a very important step to the continuation of Tunisian’s transition. Gouia points out the importance of the newly instated Ministry of Local Affairs to allow for the transition of power to be handled smoothly. Mastic calls the Ministry of Locals Affairs the most important change made by the current government.

While the Ministry of Local Affairs does bode well for decentralization, all panelist agree that the process will take time. Hawthorne points out that decentralization will come with a huge shift in both the social and political culture. Kasee-Mills is aware that the people of Tunisia will have to get used to becoming more involved with politics at the local level. She sees this as one of the largest hurdles that will have to be overcome. The cultural shift will also have to come with new laws and regulations. These laws and regulations will be difficult to write and Mastic assumes that the process will take many year to complete. Gouia stresses that the process will be complicated and Tunisia will have to rely heavily on the assistance of the international community.

Analysis: 

The talk gives a very in-depth view into the changes that can be made at the political and international levels. The panelist seem to focus on the need for economic reforms and importance for the Tunisian people to trust in their government. What seems to be lacking is the urgent social reform that many Tunisian are crying out for. The government has been abusing several laws that have led to many humans rights violations. For example, Law 52 and the new counterterrorism legislation have booth be criticized for their potential to cause human rights violations. These violations are often being carried out by the police force, which remains a thorn in the side of the transition. For the panelist to not speak directly on these issue is unfair to the Tunisian people.

The panelist were also extremely supportive of civil society. Several time the work of the Tunisian Dialogue Quartet was praised. While this is a common stance for western powers to take, it is far from the whole story. Some Tunisians would argue that the Quartet represented non elected members of society highjacking the political process for there own purposes. It is a complicated issue and deserves more attention then the panelist gave it.

Over all the panelist observed many of the challenges that faced Tunisia and often gave effective and timely solutions for those problems. The future of Tunisia depends on cooperation and dialogue. They identified the importance of decentralization and the youth. The panel ended by looking forward to a shaky, but positive, future for Tunisia.