Category Archives: Republicans

7:55  We are on, watching the CNN feed and scouring the internets.  Keep in mind that there are no entrance polls tonight, but I will be doing some analysis of the few polls that have been in the field while waiting for precinct results to come in.  I laid out some of the background earlier tonight.  Note that Michele Bachmann was on earlier tonight and claimed that the Minnesota caucus was too close to call.  That means we may be in for a long night – but of course, Nevada was easy to call but we still were in for a long night.  Colorado, on the other hand, shouldn’t be as close – if it is, that means it will likely be a long night for Mitt. Meanwhile, the Missouri polls shouldn’t close until 9 p.m. eastern time, if I remember correctly.

Note that in 2008 Romney won Minnesota easily, with 41% of the vote, compared to McCain’s 22% and Huckabee’s 20%.  At that time, however, Romney was positioning himself to the Right of McCain.  This time he’s viewed as the most moderate candidate, so it’s not clear that he can reprise that performance in a caucus that historically has been dominated by conservative activists.  One thing to eye tonight is turnout – in 2008 about 60,000 people attended the Republican caucus.  So far, Romney’s victories have not occurred with high turnout.

CORRECTION:  Missouri’s polls closed at 8 p.m. eastern time, not 9 p.m. as I indicated above.  Remember, however, there’s no exit polls tonight, so it may be some time before results are reported.  Also, Gingrich is not on the ballot in Missouri.

Meanwhile, Romney has set up headquarters tonight in Colorado, where he expects to do better.  In 2008, he swept to a convincing victory in Colorado, winning 61% of the vote, easily besting McCain who finished a distant second with 18% of the vote, while Huckabee drew 13%.  Mitt is hoping to reprise that performance tonight.  Again, turnout is of interest – about 70,000 voters turned out in 2008.

The CNN feed is slightly behind what the Missouri Secretary of State’s office is reporting – it has Rick up with almost 50% of the vote, with a whopping .04 of the precincts reporting.  One total to look at in Missouri is the “uncommitted” vote, which may be a stand-in for Gingrich’s support. Interestingly, in 2008 McCain barely won Missouri, with 33% of the vote, only 1% more than Huckabee’s 32% and 4% more than Romney 29%.   Turnout was high, with over half a million participants.

I haven’t said much about Ron Paul as yet, but in some respects he has more at stake tonight than anyone.  He’s boasted that his superior organization will begin to pay dividends in the caucus states, but he really underperformed in Nevada.  In her interview with CNN earlier tonight, Bachmann claimed that Paul was very well organized in Minnesota, but I have no way of verifying her claim.

I’ve noted earlier that we don’t have entrance polls tonight.  We also don’t have much in the way of polling data. Keep in mind that given the very low turnout in caucus proceedings, it is much harder for polling companies to find a credible sample of likely voters.   PPP did poll all three states that are holding events tonight and, with the caveat that these are polls, the result may be instructive.  In Missouri, PPP had Santorum up with 45% to 32% for Mitt Romney and 19% for Paul.   He also leads in Minnesota, but in a much closer race, according to PPP; Santorum has 33%, Romney 24%, Gingrich 22% and Paul 20%.  In Colorado, Romney is at 37%, Santorum at 27%, Gingrich at 21%, and Paul at 13%.

Interestingly Paul is the only one of the four candidates who has a negative favorable/unfavorable ratio in Colorado.  In Minnesota, all four candidates are viewed favorably (according to the PPP poll), but Santorum is viewed as the most favorable, with 74% viewing him favorably.   He’s winning 37% among the 33% of those who consider themselves supporters of the Tea Party, and 41% among the 49% who describe themselves evangelicals.  Gignrich is second in both categories.  This represents a reversal of what we saw in the southern states, where Gingrich beat Santorum among Tea Partiers and Evangelicals.   This suggests that there may be a regional difference in Santorum’s and Gingrich’s support among these two groups.

9:10  With 10% of the precincts reported in Missouri, (we are ahead of the CNN site), Santorum is winning 50% of the meaningless vote, compared to Romney’s 27%.  Wolf is hyping this as an “upset” but on what basis I have no idea.  It appears, however, that CNN is going to report these results as if they really matter – which means they may in fact end up mattering in terms of perceptions.

I’d like to give you a sense of what the early returns mean in Minnesota, but I don’t have enough knowledge about the various regions to hazard a guess.  Meanwhile, the Missouri vote is coming in pretty quickly – with over 13% of the precincts reporting, Santorum is holding steady at 50%.  The uncommitted (Gingrich?) vote, meanwhile, is down at about 5.6%.  Wolf continues to hype the “upset” in the making – is this how other cable stations are playing this?  Keep in mind that because the Missouri vote is a beauty contest today, turnout will be nowhere near what it was in 2008, when the primary results were used to select the 58 Republican state delegates.

Wolf insists that Missouri is a huge “upset” for Santorum.  Between that, and his insistence on forcing his correspondents to actually get the results from a precinct that, by itself, is one of a thousand such precincts, really speaks to how desperate they are to hype the coverage.  And to top it off, Wolf notes that people are “dying in Syria” because they don’t have a caucus.  I think there’s a serious point there, but it isn’t coming across.

I’m amazed how much attention the CNN pundits are paying to Missouri.

Don’t look now, but with about 3% of the Colorado vote in, Santorum is leading.  If he wins there, that will be newsworthy.

By the way, the reason why Missouri’s primary is meaningless this year is because state law requires the state to hold a primary on Feb. 7, but this violates the rules of the Republican National Committee, which limits which states can have primaries before March.  To resolve the conflict between party and state law, Missouri decided to hold the meaningless primary, but schedule a caucus later to actually choose the delegates.   This hasn’t stopped CNN from hyping tonight’s “upset”.

Meanwhile, in other news, the Celtics are poised to win their fifth straight victory, and Paul Pierce has passed the legendary Larry Bird for second place on the all-time Celtic scoring list.

Not that it matters, but NBC is projecting that Santorum will win the Missouri primary.

Meanwhile, in real news, the Celtics have now won 9 of the last 10. Who said they were too old?

Gergen is amazed that Romney isn’t running the board.  Who could have predicted this, he asks?  Sigh.  He doesn’t read this blog, does he?

In comparing the 2008 Minnesota map with today’s, it appears that Santorum – based on very early returns – is winning areas that Romney took in 2008.  Still, I stress that it is early – only 12% of the vote is in, but Santorum is getting 44%, compared to Paul who is in second with 27%.  If these results hold, the media will undoubtedly hype that Romney finished behind both Santorum and Paul.

Looking at Romney getting trounced in Missouri, and trailing in Minnesota, I am reminded of poor Will Cain going on last week regarding Romney’s “breakthrough” among Tea Partiers and evangelicals in Nevada.   Some breakthrough!

So far Paul seems to be hanging in second place in Minnesota – not what he wanted, but better than the alternative.  Not unexpectedly, Gingrich is not doing well in Santorum territory.  I expect that pundits will suggest that he’s become the Tea Party and Evangelical frontrunner, but I’m not convinced that he’s demonstrated he can win outside the midwest, just as Gingrich hasn’t demonstrated he can win outside the south among these groups.

John King is trying to make the case that Romney’s stumbles can be compared to McCain’s in 2008.  But the difference is McCain had a bigger cushion by virtue of the winner-take-all system in place four years ago.  Romney can’t count on that to put his opponents away.

One other point to keep in mind – almost no money was spent by any candidates on television advertising in Colorado and Minnesota, but what was spent was expended almost entirely by Romney.  And, as the CNN commentators have correctly noted, the overall spending dynamic heavily favors Romney – and yet he still hasn’t put his opponents away.

In the past as prologue symbolism, four years ago tonight Mitt Romney suspended his presidential campaign.  Will he do the same tonight?  (Of course not….)

For those of you who are tuning in late and who might be watching the CNN feed – contrary to Wolf’s hyperventilated reporting, there’s been no upset anywhere tonight.

Let me preface this by saying I am not familiar with the in-state voting dynamics in Minnesota.  Nonetheless, as I compare the 2008 and 2012 maps, Santorum continues to win in areas that Romney took in 2008. Indeed, with about 25% of the vote in, Mitt hasn’t won a single county.  He won more than half of them in 2008.  This is not shaping up to be a great night for the Mittster.

By my back of the envelope calculations, it doesn’t look like turnout in Minnesota is going to beat the 2008 total by very much, if at all.  I stress, however, that this is a back-of-the-envelope calculation.

OK, NBC is projecting that Santorum is going to win Minnesota – now this is big news!

Ok, somewhat late to the party, CNN is also projecting that Rick has won in Minnesota.  If Mitt finishes third – as it looks like he will – this will put a real crimp in the Mitrt-as-inevitable nominee theme (and it will make me look darn good.)   Keep in mind, Mitt did not pummel his opponents with negative ads here as he did when he crushed Newt in Florida…..

It’s early in Colorado, but if Rick somehow pulls off the trifecta, the punditocracy will be falling all over themselves to proclaim that the race has changed.  In truth, as you’ve heard me say repeatedly, Mitt is simply not a strong candidate.  But we shouldn’t overreact here and suddenly proclaim Santorum as the main alternative.  As Anna can attest, he has real vulnerabilities that will undoubtedly become the focus of Mitt’s negative advertising machine in the next two weeks.  Also keep in mind that Mitt is still the frontrunner in Arizona and Michigan, the two states that vote next (after Maine’s caucuses which end next Saturday).

Donna Brazile just blathered on about how turnout in Missouri tonight was dismal, completely ignoring the fact that no delegates were at stake.  An absolutely stunningly stupid observation.

As expected, the talking heads are overreacting to the results tonight.  Part of this is because they fed us the Romney as inevitable line for so long that this actually seems like a surprise. Part of it is because they always tend to overreact to the latest results, rather than putting them in the context of the overall race.

Ok, Santorum is on to proclaim victory, sans sweater vest!  He’s pumped!  Good timing here – he’s on during primetime, before the viewing audience drifts off.  A nice opening shot at Mitt in Massachusetts, and the obvious move to claim the mantle of the Tea Party, and the evangelicals.  And now on to the Obama bashing….this is his bid to show he’s electable.

A subtle jab here at Mitt – Rick cares about the very rich and the very poor.

(Meanwhile, with just over 40% of Minnesota’s vote in, Paul is holding on to second with Mitt still in third.)

I was waiting for the Catholic pitch in reaction to the Obama contraceptive ruling.   I am curious how much this helped Santorum in these caucuses.  This is serious Rick – a bit too serious, if you ask me.  You’d think he’d be a bit more upbeat.  (There’s a bit of humor – pledge not your life, but maybe your fortune!)  I wonder if the honor is a subtle jab at Newt?  He does remind us that with this victory he’s going to pull in some more money.

Colorado results are not even trickling in – shades of Nevada.

Great catch here by CNN – the man behind Rick’s shoulder was his “sugardaddy” Foster Friess, the man who is funding the pro-Santorum Superpac. Remember under campaign finance laws candidates are not supposed to coordinate their spending with their Superpacs.   It doesn’t look good to have Friess standing right behind you!  How is that not coordination?

Paul is on, trying to make something of another bad night.  He’s making the case that it’s all about delegates – which it is, but right now he’s not winning them based on the initial results.  Of course, there’s still several steps to go in both Colorado and Minnesota, and he may yet out organize his opponents to steal a few.  For now, however, another disappointing night.

Same caveats hold – I don’t know Colorado well – but my read of the returns is that Santorum has a shot at winning it.  (Where’s Baumann when you need him?) With 26% of the vote in, Santorum is up by 11%.  To be sure, there’s some large population areas around Denver that haven’t reported as yet, so I’m not counting him out.

One thing to remember – in 2008, Romney won Minnesota and Colorado as the conservative alternative to McCain.  This cycle he’s the moderate and so it’s not too surprising that he’s doing worse in caucuses dominated by party activists.  Still, if he loses Colorado – Wolf can legitimately claim that’s an upset.  So far, however, there’ s been no real surprises tonight.

Mitt is on – but where’s Ann?  Is she a front-runner wife?

(Colorado – 29% of precincts reporting, and Paul is in last place.  Not where he wants to be, given his emphasis on caucuses).

Mitt’s short declarative statements “I’ll be the nominee”, “He has failed. We won’t”,  etc., have lost a bit of their impact after hearing it for the umpteenth time.

Did he say America’s soul could be corrupted?  I see a Youtube campaign ad coming out soon.

Did I just hear Mitt praise his father’s ability to spit out nails, sharp point facing out?  Whenever he starts riffing on his humble roots, the hypocrisy meter goes red.

This is not Mitt’s typical stump speech.  It was much heavier on love of America, and more personal anecdotes. I’m guessing the references to his father’s humble roots is an effort to cut into Santorum’s more populist base, but it just doesn’t seem to pass the smell test.

The first crack in the wall: Gergen asks, “Is Mitt Romney still the frontrunner?”  Everyone immediately jumps in to say he is, but the fact that the question has been asked suggests that the punditocracy is finally catching on.

Some of the election analysts (who shall remain nameless,but you know who I mean) are using 2008 results to interpret the results coming in now.  The problem is that Romney is positioned differently this time around, so you have to be careful making one-to-one county comparisons.  It’s really a new world this time around.

Tonight is also a reminder about how difficult it is to poll a caucus state.  PPP tried, and while they anticipated a strong night for Santorum, they didn’t quite pick up on how strong it was going to be, and they overestimated Romney’s performance.

It’s the witching hour – time for me to call it a night in order to be prepared for my day job.  Remember, if Rick sweeps all three contests tonight, the punditocracy will be flooding the airwaves with cries that everything has been turned upside down.  Don’t get caught up in the hype.  This has been Santorum’s night, but it doesn’t do much to change the dynamics of this race – as regular readers know, I’ve been harping on Romney’s weaknesses for several weeks now.  But this doesn’t mean he’s suddenly not the front runner.  He is, but there’s still a long way to go, as you well know.

More in the morning.  Thanks for all the participation…. .

6:00 Ok, we are moving to a new post to pick up the television coverage.  Please join in.  This may be a short night, but there are some interesting subplots playing.

Reading the tealeaves of the entrance poll results, this does not, as yet, appear that Mitt has shown he is expanding his coalition.  So far it’s looking like a reprise of 2008. Not that the media will see this.

In looking at the entrance polls, the percentage of independents is almost identical to 2008, and the number of 18-29 age voters is down from 2008.  Not necessarily good news for Ron Paul. Check that, independents were 12% of the vote in 2008, so the 6% increase actually bodes well for Paul.  So I look for him to build on the 14% he won in 2008. He won 48% of independents.

Big difference from 2008?  Only 7% of caucus goers cited electability as the most important candidate quality then – this time, 44% said it was “beating Obama”!   Big turnabout, and one that will work in Romney’s favor.

Interestingly, among the 42% that are strong supporters of the Tea Party, Romney beats Gingrich, 40-31%.  That’s the first time I’ve seen Romney win among strong Tea Party supporters.  So maybe he is making some inroads among this group. But how many are Mormon?

Another big difference – in 2008, only 43% of participants made their decision before January.  this year, a whopping 57% did.  That is, more than half of the participants had their minds made up before any voting took place in the nominating process at all!  Romney won big among that group, so lots of built-in Romney support this time around.

Guess what – Romney does worse among Mormons this time around – “only” 91%.  He won 95% in 2008.  Keep in mind that entrance polls are rather fuzzy indicators of the actual vote.  Note sure there’s any real difference between 91% and 95%.

The poor people on CNN are trying desperately to hype tonight’s coverage, but the reality is that there not much to hype.  About the only uncertainty is who will finish second, and whether I  hit the proportions right on the nose.

One other issue: is turnout up?  Remember, Mitt’s victory in Florida came with depressed turnout.   Early signals tonight suggest turnout isn’t up, and may be down.

Once again, Mitt’s support increases in linear fashion as we go up the income scale.  In fact, he loses the  10% who earn less than $30,000 to Paul(by 1%) and ties with Gingrich.  No wonder he’s not concerned with the poor! Note that he won the poorest vote easily in 2008.  Indeed, in 2008, there was much less income skew in Mitt’s vote.   Not this year – his support tracks income quite closely.

In thinking about Mitt’s support among the Tea Party – without access to cross-tabs, I can’t be sure how many Tea Party voters are also Mormons.  So I would hesitate based on tonight’s results to conclude that Mitt is making inroads among the non-Mormon Tea Party voters.

Still no turnout figures, but so far there’s no sign that turnout is up over 2008.  Remember that in 2008 turnout was about 44,000.

Gergen and and the other commentators on CNN are missing the key point here -we don’t know how many Tea Party votes and conservative votes are coming from Mormons.  Without knowing that, we need to resist saying that Romney expanded his support among the Tea Party or conservatives.

Will Mitt win more than the 22,246 votes he won in 2008?

CNN results should be coming up at 8.

And there they are!  Don’t look know, but my prediction is almost exactly correct …. based on about 5% return!  Alas, these proportions will change as the vote from the more urban and southern areas come in and begin to boost Mitt a bit.

Gergen and Will Cain are missing the point here in their discussion of Nevada’s Tea Party and conservative report.  Doesn’t someone have a line to them?  Quick – somebody tell them that Mormon and Tea Party and conservative aren’t mutually exclusive groups!

My point here is that the entrance polls don’t give us cross-tabs.  But if you look at previous polls that do have crosstabs, you can see where the CNN commentators are going wrong.  For instance, the PPP poll from last week shows that 80% of Mormons consider themselves somewhat or very conservative.  So if Mitt wins 91% of the Mormon vote, he’s going to win a big chunk of conservatives as well.  Similarly, 13% of Tea Party supporters are Mormons, compared to 20% of overall voters as Mormon, in that same PPP poll.  Again, if you win 91% of Mormons, you are going to win some Tea party voters as well (assuming the polling results hold up.)

Additional PPP data: 20% of Mormons support the Tea party.  I hope I’ve made my point.

Looks like the votes are going to trickle in here.   It may be a lot longer night than I anticipated.  Doesn’t feel like I’ve earned a scotch as yet.

8:47  It’s early – only 8% of the vote in – but Mitt is only at 45%.  I have to think that will go up as results from southern Nevada come in, but if he can’t match 2008 total, and turnout is lower, this will be a bad night for Mitt.   Wonder how much the “I don’t care for the poor” comments hurt him?  Keep in mind – only Mitt and Paul spent any money in this state.  Newt and Rick decided to save their cash and spent very little, if anything, on television advertising in Nevada.

By the way, Newt has a press conference scheduled for 8 pacific time.  The twitterverse were speculating he was going to drop out.  Highly unlikely.  My guess is he’s going to reiterate that he’s in this to stay, and he may have a funding announcement as well.   In any case, it’s clear to me that he’s going to use February to build up his war chest looking ahead to Feb. 28 and March 6 primaries.  It makes no sense for him to drop out before the southern states vote on March 6.  I still say Santorum is likely to call it quits first.  Tuesday is really his only chance to win a state – he’s competing in Missouri’s no-binding primary on Tuesday, and Newt’s not on the ballot there.   If Santorum can’t win there … .

Speaking of Rick, he’s on CNN speaking to a Colorado audience.  Alas, he’s not polling well there either.   Lots of twitter comments about his bolo tie with a button down shirt.  I see the tie is gone..as his voice, almost.   This has got to be a grueling process.

10 p.m. Surprise!  CNN calls it for Mitt.  But if he doesn’t pick it up, this is going to be a disappointing night for him.  He has to at least match what he got in 2008, in a five candidate race.  Right now he’s running behind, in a lower turnout affair.

It’s interesting to speculate regarding what Newt is going to say tonight.  My guess is he’s trying to show how he wins the nomination.  By laying out a feasible path, he’s trying to overcome the electability issue that so far has been playing in Romney’s favor.  But the best way to demonstrate electability is to just win, baby.   Of course, he may be trying to focus on raising money in the next several weeks, and tonight’s speech might be designed to appeal to those deep pockets.

Wolf Blitzer is on describing Mitt’s “dramatic” victory tonight.  Are we looking at the same returns?

I don’t know what the holdup is on these returns – CNN has been on 10% returns for an hour now.  I thought for sure they’d update in a flurry of returns as soon as the polls closed.  How are they delivering returns out there – by passenger pigeon?

10:23  Finally, an update!  And, wonders of wonders, with 13% of the vote in, my prediction suddenly looks uncanny!  If only they would stop counting now…..  Should I give my super bowl point spread as well?  Bottom line:  Mitt is at 47%, 3 under my projection, while Santorum is at 12%, 4% above my guesstimate.  But looks like I nailed Newt and Ron.

Somebody needs to take Will Cain off the CNN stage – he’s just making stuff up.  I can’t take anymore without a scotch.  I think I’ve earned it.

Keep in mind that the special “Adelson Center” precinct has yet to vote.  If Gingrich doesn’t win this….!

As always happen when you finish last, the pundits begin touting what a nice guy you are, and how you’ve grown, and stayed out of the gutter, etc.   That’s Santorum’s fate tonight – Borger and Gergen are now heaping praise on the person who finished last.  What did Leo Durocher say?  (Do any of you know who Leo Durocher is?)

Mitt is on, and he’s wearing the jacket.  Looks spiffy!  I expect him to spend the night blasting Obama.  Remember, Nevada could be a key battleground state in 2012.

I wonder if that person out of work  for three years was a “poor” person?

What is it with this reference to Obama’s friends in “the faculty lounge”?  Richard?  Jeff?  What did we do wrong?  Heck, I don’t even have a faculty lounge, unless you count the third floor men’s room in Munroe… .

Rousing general election speech, touching on all the major themes – if he wins the nomination!  Tonight is not helping his cause, although it’s not clear to me the media will understand this.

15% of the vote in, and Paul closes on Newt.  None of the networks have called the second place, as yet, have they?

Meanwhile, Newt is coming on – he’s at least prompted some media interest.  Which may be the point of holding this right after Mitt’s victory speech.  I have to think his goal is to make a credible case that he can win this nomination, in the hope of making sure the money tree doesn’t die.

In looking at the CNN map, we are still waiting on returns from major urban areas, including the Las Vegas area in Clark county.  Mitt may pick up some support there.   He has to hope so, since so far this hasn’t been a great night for him as yet.

Fascinating slice of the caucus process on view on CNN right now as they show some of the speeches at the “Adelson event”.   Ron Paul supporters are out in force – you get the full flavor of who they are, with some riffing on the dangers of vaccinations, and others talking about monetary policy, and other spouting the straight libertarian line.

Not surprisingly, Gingrich is running 15 minutes late for his important speech.  This is the story of his campaign so far – lack of organization.  He’ll be late to his own funeral.

The Paulistas are out in force, but CNN is cutting to Newt.  Let’s listen in…

Metaphor of the Night: “I’d turn the safety net into a trampoline….”

You say Nevada, I say Nevada…..

As expected, Newt is playing the electability card.  He’s not withdrawing. He’s doing better than McCain did in 2008 in Nevada.  His plan is to gain “parity” by Texas in terms of delegates.  That’s unlikely, but if he is in the race and wins Texas, that will mean he’s viable.

Gingrich, not surprisingly, offers to debate Romney any time, any place.

Whoa – CNN suddenly updates their results – with 41% of the vote in, Romney drops to 44% of the vote, and Gingrich solidifies his hold on second.  Not a good night for Mitt as yet… .

Lander and Clark counties are the holdouts in Nevada.  Mitt did well in Clark County in 2008, with over 50% of the vote, but in Lander he only pulled about 35% of the vote.   Not looking good for Mitt….

Turnout looks down from 2008 based on current results.  Gingrich is claiming that in Florida he did well in areas when turnout was up, but Romney won in areas where turnout was down.  Is that true, and does that hold up in Nevada?

CNN commentators savaging Newt’s press conference… .

BTW, CNN is guesstimating that Mitt takes 10 delegates, with Newt and Ron winning 3 a piece.  Another brick in the wall…. .

Ok, it’s almost the witching hour, and we don’t even have 50% of the vote reported as yet.   I’m not going to wait on the remaining votes much longer.  If we don’t see anything more soon, I’m going to call it a night.

Entrance polls have Mitt doing very well in Clark County, winning over 60% of the vote there.  I have to think his vote percentage will go up when the Clark votes come in. If it ever comes in.

Ok, we have an update on Lander County – with about 44% of the vote in, Mitt is pulling over 50% there.  But Clark County is stuck at 3% reporting.  I have to think that when it comes in Mitt will get a boost in his final vote proportion.  Given the late hour, however, I’m not going to wait up to see how it turns out.

I’ll be on tomorrow to assess both the actual results, and how the media spins it.  Right now, however, I have to think the lead story is that in a smaller field, the purported front runner did worse than he did in 2008, when he didn’t come close to winning the nomination.  If Mitt’s goal was to demonstrate that he is the inevitable nominee, tonight didn’t do much to convince me.

As always, thanks to everyone for participating and….

Go Patriots!

See you tomorrow…. .Remember, if Clark County comes out strong for Mitt, he still may reach my projection for him and match his 2008 totals.