Category Archives: Republicans

Assessing What the Media Says: Looking Back at Michigan and Ahead to SuperTuesday

How should we interpret Tuesday’s primary results in Michigan?  It is always useful to compare what the data suggests happened versus what the media reports.   The two narratives do not always agree, as I hope to show in this post.  And that serves as an early warning as we look ahead to the media coverage of Super Tuesday, coming up on March 6.

Media claim #1: Rick Santorum, in losing the Michigan primary to Romney, essentially blew his chance to win this nomination.  That’s the verdict of Joe Scarborough of “Morning Joe” fame, who reportedly said yesterday:  “If Santorum had beaten Romney in Michigan, it would have shaken the race up … He had his chance. He blew his chance. … I hate to upset people, but the fact is: Romney has all the built-in advantages. [Santorum] had one chance to take him down. And he blew it.”  In the same vein, the Washington Post’s Chris Cilizza claims that Romney narrowly averted a defeat that would have essentially ended his candidacy:  “And when Romney needed to win — a loss in Michigan would have crippled his campaign beyond repair (or close to it) — he did.”

Really?  Scarborough and Cilizza would have us believe that if 2% of Romney’s popular vote switched to Santorum, giving Rick the victory at 40%-39%, Romney’s campaign would have ended?  And that for want of that 2% switch, Santorum blew his one chance to beat Romney?  I’m not buying it.  In fact, I believe a narrow Santorum win in Michigan would have made absolutely no difference to the outcome of this nomination contest.  Remember, although Romney beat Santorum 41%-38% in the popular vote, they split Michigan’s 30 delegates, 15 apiece.  Even with an additional 2% in the popular vote, Santorum would still likely have split the delegates with Mitt – and at this point that’s what these contests are all about: getting delegates.

Nor do I see any evidence that Santorum “blew” his chance. In fact, this was his strongest performance to date; he won 377,000 votes and 38% of the popular vote – the best performance for him in any contest so far.  Mitt, meanwhile, did what he’s done all campaign: held his own by virtue of strong support among upper-income, older and more moderate Republican voters, but without showing much evidence that he can expand his coalition.  To his credit, he increased his vote totals and percentage over 2008, when he won with 39% of the vote and with 70,000 fewer votes.  But that increase in votes came from most of the same areas that supported him four years ago.

Media claim #2: Santorum lost this race in the last few days when he shifted the campaign focus from the economy to women’s issues, particularly abortion and reproductive rights. This was a theme trumpeted by more than one news outlet in the days leading up to the Michigan primary, and one that CNN’s Gloria Borger raised during the primary coverage Tuesday night.   In fact, however, Santorum’s support among Republican women has increased since January, and in Michigan, exit polls indicate he won 38% of the men’s votes – and 38% of the women’s vote.  Similarly, Santorum won 38% of the vote by “working women” and 38% of the vote of everyone else.  If anything, it was Romney who suffered from a gender gap – he did 4% better among women than men.  It appears that some of the men’s vote gravitated from Romney to Paul.  The lack of a gender gap based on Santorum’s views toward “women’s issues” should not surprise us – although media pundits continue to insist that views toward issues such as abortion and reproductive rights drive the gender gap in voting, that’s not the case.  Instead, women and men differ much more on issues related to war and peace, and how much the government is responsible for caring for the most vulnerable citizens in society.   Keep in mind that 79% of Michigan voters cited the budget deficit and the economy as the most important issue – only 14% mentioned abortion.   When reporters go on and on about how women are particularly sensitive to debates regarding these issues, I often believe they are more likely voicing their own views, about what they think is true – views reflecting their own socioeconomic status, rather than citing any evidence to support the claim.

But didn’t the polls indicate that Santorum’s support shrank in the last few days before the Michigan primary – just as talk about social issues heated up?  It is true that among the 9% who made up their mind on the day of the election, Romney won 38-31%.  But for those who decided “in the last few days”, Santorum took 43% of the vote, compared to 34% for Romney.  At the very least, those making the social issues claim have to explain why social issues suddenly became prominent among those who decided on the day of the election, but not among those who made up their minds in the last few days before the vote took place.  It may be the case that Santorum lost support because of his conservative social views,  but I’ll need more evidence before I accept this claim.

In the competitive news environment that drives political coverage today, when every outlet struggles to define an outcome in the most newsworthy manner possible in order to capture the viewing audience in any single news cycle, there is a tendency to overstate the significance of each event.  But in an extended nomination fight, no single contest is likely to be a game-changer at this point.  Michigan did not save Mitt’s campaign.  Nor did it doom Rick’s.  It’s important to keep that in mind as we head toward SuperTuesday, when the media hyperbole will undoubtedly reach new heights.  There will be 10 contests on March 6, with 437 delegates at stake – more than have been up for grabs in all the contests so far.  And yet, when the dust settles, we are likely to see a reprise of what just happened last Tuesday:  Wolf Blitzer will begin the night trumpeting the significance of it all,  John King will work the magic board until it malfunctions, Anderson Cooper will wander the stage looking for someone to talk to, the pundits will opine (sometimes accurately, sometimes not), the major candidates will all win a chunk of delegates, Mitt will retain his weak frontrunner status, I’ll pour a glass of scotch, and the race will continue.

Addendum:  Here’s more media hyperbole from Charles Krauthammer on Michigan, the “gender gap” and how Santorum blew it.

Addendum (11:00 p.m.)  I’ve been teaching and grading for most of the day, so I’m late to to this story that a divided Michigan rules committee has decided to award both of Michigan’s at large delegates to Romney. If this survives the inevitable Santorum challenge, it will mean that Romney wins 16 delegates to Santorum’s 14, instead of a 15-15 split.  It won’t change the point of my post, however.

Live Blogging Michigan and Arizona

8:05 Late start tonight. Sorry. But had to get the beer out of the freezer.  (Miller Lite as the intro beer.)

I’m watching CNN.  And what do you know – Callista Speaks!

She introduces the Newtster.  He’s going to give his speech to his Georgia supporters, which is his must win state next Tuesday.  (He’s up big in the polls there now, but who knows what will happen if Santorum wins Michigan.  right now Mitt is in danger of getting shut out entirely in Georgia.

sidestory – I taught Nelson Polsby’s classic work on the How Congress Evolves today in my seminar.  Polsby explains how the Republicans rose to prominence in the South – (hint: it had a lot to do with demographic changes, but air conditioning played a role).  Polsby bases his argument in part on conversations with Newt Gingrich. When you read Gingrich’s comments, you understand perfectly why he does so well in debates: he’s pithy, comprehensive and entertaining.  (He was also a bit thinner I’m guessing).

But I digress.  Meanwhile, back at the speech – what is Newt’s point —- who was that laughing?  Porky Pig? – Quick!  $10,000 what the point of Professor Gingrich’s lecture is!  It’s like listening to one of my lectures….

ah, and here’s the point!  There’s always a point, isn’t there?  He says the tree felling incident proves that a lot of people like him, even though he’s not too smart!  He’s playing the humble Newt role before his home base.  Newt is a lumberjack, and he’s ok!

Ok, back to the exit poll data. It looks like Democrats constitute about 10% of the voters – more than the 7% that turned out in 2008, but less than the 17% from 2000.  Keep in mind that we wouldn’t be talking about Democratic turnout if this wasn’t so close – it’s a function of Mitt’s weakness.

Which reminds me.  I can’t use Operation Hilarity.  It’s a stupid title.  A free “It’s the Fundamentals, Stupid” t-shirt to someone who can come up with the best descriptive phrase for my plan to set up a brokered Republican convention.  It needs to be short and imaginative – but accurate too.

By the way, CNN is playing up what a disaster it will be if Romney loses his home state.  I disagree, mainly because I think he’s already a weak candidate and he’s not likely to do well next week no matter  what the outcome in Michigan.  Again, there’s what actually happens tonight, and what the media will say happened tonight.  They are not necessarily the same thing.

We should probably mention what Chris noted in the comments: Olympia Snowe, one of the few remaining moderates in the Senate, has announced she is stepping down, in large part because of the increasing polarization in Congress.  Remember that Snowe was one of few Republicans to actually engage Obama on both the stimulus and health care bills.   Her departure will only widen the gulf between the two parties.

Chris asks about Snowe as a potential V.P. candidate?  Back in 2008, heading into the Republican Convention, I predicted that McCain would choose a woman as his vice presidential candidate, and was widely ridiculed for saying so.  Did I know he was going to pick Palin?   Of course not – I had never heard of her!  I had Olympia Snowe or Kay Bailey Hutchison in mind.   But Chris – why not Olympia for president coming out of the brokered Republican convention?

Anna Esten says Newt’s new “fight” song is one used by Hulk Hogan, of WWE fame.  I’m waiting for Newt to rip his shirt off and tell all those Newtomaniacs to eat their vitamins and remember the 1o demandments, brother!

Wolf is going to have a heart attack on CNN as he tries to keep up with the vote totals.  Meanwhile, John King’s magic wall has been acting up all night.

Keep in mind that the exit numbers that are being bandied about on various sites are not the final ones – they get adjusted based on overall turnout figures.   For what it’s worth, the number of self-described conservatives who voted is actually higher than in 2008, despite the slight uptick in Democrats.

CNN switched to Ron Paul just as he was haranguing the Fed – great timing.  For the life of me, I can’t figure out how he gets his supporters to get so revved up when they’ve heard this speech a gazillon times.  At least Newt switched it up tonight and talked about logging. Heck, Ron’s supporters are shouting out his lines before he even speaks them.

Note that Paul’s recital of the events of the Cuban Missile crisis only tells part of the story.  In fact, JFK used carrots (trading the missiles) but he also threatened the stick (the illegal blockade).

Keep in mind that we haven’t seen the final exit polls as yet – the results that have been leaked have not yet been adjusted for turnout.  so be cautious with these numbers.

We should get Arizona called in a few seconds.  Note that as I blogged earlier today we shouldn’t be certain that in the end Romney will in fact get all of Arizona’s 29 delegates – I’m pretty sure there will be a rules challenge at the convention.  for now, however, we put them in Mitt’s column.

Jeff Greenfield tweets that while Mitt gets 29 delegates, it won’t matter at all if he loses Michigan.  That is typical media nonsense.  It’s about the delegates, not the media spin.  Assuming he gets to keep those delegates this is a big win, if not unexpected.  The problem the media is having is that they set the bar unrealistically high for Mitt because this is his “home state”, and now they are punishing him from not reaching their outlandish expectations.  The reality is Mitt is doing as well in Michigan this time around as he did in 2008.  This has been the story for Mitt all year long – he pretty much is reprising his 2008 performance, but he hasn’t expanded his coalition at all.

Meanwhile, not a lot of talk by the talking heads about what a loss here means for Santorum.  He really needs to do well in the rust belt area and Michigan was expected to be one of his better states.

Let me touch on a few of the exit poll numbers in Arizona. Interestingly, Romney wins a third of the Hispanic/Latino vote which was only 8% of the total Arizona vote.  Still, that is pretty impressive.  Meanwhile, Santorum actually does better among women, winning 31% of their vote, but only 24% of men.   So much for his social issues turning women voters off.  Once again, as we go up the income ladder, Romney’s support increases while Santorum’s support decreases.  Mitt wins 64% of those earning more than $200,000, but only 34% of those earning less than $30,000 – about the same as Santorum among this income group.  So, he gets the Cadillac vote.  35% of Arizona voters are “strong” supporters of the Tea Party – Santorum beats Romney 39%-35%.  Again, I see no evidence in Arizona at least that Romney has dispelled any of the weaknesses in his candidacy that we’ve cited before.  No broadening of the coalition.  However, if you add in “somewhat” support Tea Party Romney gains support.   Similarly, 37% of Arizona vote are evangelicals – Romney loses them as well to Santorum, 38% to 33%.  Again, this does not bode well for SuperTuesday for Mitt.  biggest support for Mitt?  14% of Arizona vote is Mormon – they go for Mitt with 91% support!  More than half of the Arizona electorate decided for whom they would support in January or earlier – in other words, long before Mitt’s vulnerabilities were apparent.

When we look at Michigan, we see a similar pattern in exit polls. Mitt’s support increases in almost linear fashion as we go up the income ladder.  According to exit polls Romney loses the under $100,000 voters, but wins the 33% who earn more than $100,o00 by 12% over Santorum.

(By the way, is it me or does it seem like the CNN pundits have grown subdued now that Mitt is pulling away in Michigan?  There’s goes the horse race!)

Once again, Santorum doesn’t seem to suffer from a gender gap in support in Michigan.  It’s a reminder that the women’s vote turns largely on social welfare issues – not so-called “women’s” issues related to contraception, abortion, etc.

Several tweeters have noted the exit polls “discrepancy” which show Santorum winning both strong Tea Party supporters and those who strongly oppose the Tea Party in Michigan.  Of course, that likely reflects the Democratic crossover vote.

Eyeballing turnout figures, it doesn’t look like an increase over 2008, but that’s projecting tonight’s total based on preliminary figures.

Santorum easily wins the 39% of self-identified evangelicals in Michigan, beating Mitt in this group 50-35%.

Biggest story of the night so far:  Santorum misses the chance to win his best primary state so far.  Already the talking heads are blaming his defeat on tactical moves in the last days of the campaign, but frankly I don’t see any evidence that they are right.  Gloria Borger says Rick forfeited populist economic message, but in fact Rick won low income voters.   Media always goes back to campaign tactics, but that’s usually not the story.

Santorum is on for his concession speech.  Great opening music!

More on media missing the story here: Borger says Rick went off message in last few days, cost him support.  Maybe, but among voters who made up mind in last few days (24%), Rick wins over Mitt 42-34%. Even among the 30% who thought the debate was important, Rick lost to Mitt by only 3%.

CNN is now projecting Mitt to win Michigan tonight.  Cue media spin – Mitt rescued his candidacy tonight!  Sigh.

Biggest news tonight?  My winning streak when it comes to predictions is broken!  Let the critics descend!

Not much evidence of a gender gap in Rick’s support, but that’s not stopping the pundits from saying there is one.  Repeat after me: so-called “women’s issues” – abortion, contraception, etc. do not drive the women’s vote as much as support for social welfare programs and ability to keep the peace.

Interestingly, the Democrat CNN talking head just said Rick lost working women – he actually won working women in Michigan, based on exit polls.  The pundits are fixated on this gender issue, but there’s just no evidence that it mattered. …

I’ve got an early teaching time tomorrow so I’m going to have to cut this short tonight.  But there’s three things to keep in mind.

1. Rick may yet win more delegates in Michigan than does Mitt – remember, delegates are largely allocated to by congressional district.  Because much of Mitt’s support is more concentrated in Detroit area, it is possible that he will win the popular vote but won’t quite win the delegate race.  However, Mitt will exceed his 2008 total vote in Michigan.  Still waiting to calculate overall turnout.  It would be nice if a Mitt victory was accompanied by an increase in voter turnout!

2. Once again Rick has failed to win the popular vote in a big primary state.

3. It bears repeating – Mitt has once again shown little ability to attract support from lower income voters or Tea Party supporters.  He just can’t seem to broaden his coalition.

Bottom line: the race remains where it was before tonight.  Mitt is slogging his way to victory, delegate by delegate, but without generating much enthusiasm among rank and file Republican voters.  And I suspect next Tuesday will not be his strongest day of the race.   There’s a long way to go… .

If I’m a Republican, I’m still angling for a brokered convention….meanwhile, it’s on to Super Tuesday!  Let’s do it all again a week from now.

More tomorrow….let’s break out the scotch.  It’s a wrap.

 

Mitt To Be Tied? Previewing the Arizona and Michigan Primaries

Based on the latest polling data in Michigan, today’s primary there is almost certainly not going to have the ending Mitt Romney likely envisioned when he announced his candidacy for the Republican nomination last year.   The very latest Michigan poll shows Romney leading Santorum by 37%-36%, which, in effect, is a tossup.  Given the closeness of the race, the winner may be determined by how many Democrats decide to participate in this open primary, and whether they all go for Santorum.  If they do, he may squeak out a victory.

However, because the bulk of Michigan’s 30 delegates are allocated by winner-take-all in each of the state’s 14 congressional districts, it is quite likely that Romney and Santorum will split the delegate haul pretty evenly no matter who wins the popular vote, although there’s a slight possibility Ron Paul could steal a district.  Three months ago I’m confident that Mitt viewed Michigan, his home state, as solid Romney territory.  Today, he’s hoping to hang on for a win, knowing full well that he’s squandered a chance to pad his delegate lead.

As Jon Bernstein reminds us, however, the news is not likely to be all bad for Mitt tonight.  All indications are that he is going to win Arizona, with the latest polls there having him leading Santorum by about 16%. Unlike in Michigan, Arizona’s 29 delegates are awarded on a winner-take-all statewide basis; you don’t get anything for finishing second statewide or winning congressional districts.    (Note that both Michigan and Arizona saw their delegate totals halved by the Republican Party by virtue of holding their primaries before March 1.)   So, based on delegates alone, Mitt is likely to be the big winner tonight no matter what the Michigan outcome.   Unfortunately for Mitt, given the expectations game, this may not be how the media spins the results.  Instead, it is more likely that in their fixation on the horse race, they will emphasize Mitt’s surprisingly (based on earlier media expectations!)  close race in his home state, and suggest this is another indication of his rather lackluster candidacy.    This will set up the media narrative looking ahead to the March 6 Super Tuesday events, where Mitt is not likely to do very well.  Poor Mitt – even when he wins he loses!   But in truth this is not solely media spin – the fact that Mitt is struggling in a state that he won easily in 2008 with 39% of the vote over the eventual Republican nominee John McCain is a valid indication that Romney is a weak candidate.  So, victory in Arizona notwithstanding, tonight is not going to be all sweetness and light for Mitt.

Given the closeness of the Michigan race, this could be a long night.  Polls close there at 8 p.m. eastern time, but I don’t expect the networks to project a winner for some time.  In Arizona, where polls close at 9 Eastern Time, Mitt should be declared the winner in short order.   As always, I’ll be on for more extended analysis and a live blog later tonight.  Keep in mind that these are the first primaries since Florida at the end of January, and the first events that will actually award delegates since the Nevada caucus.  (All of Santorum’s subsequent “victories” came without any fixed delegates as yet.)  And there are some interesting subplots beyond the delegate haul to discuss. For example, how will Mitt do among Hispanics in Arizona?  What do the exit polls indicate about Mitt’s support among lower-income voters, and among the Tea Party crowd?  Has Santorum’s gender gap widened? Can Ron Paul rally to win any delegates at all tonight?  And, most importantly, how do the media spin the results?

As always, you are invited to join in tonight.  I’ll likely be on closer to 8 p.m., unless exit polls are leaked earlier.

The Delegate Race: Can Newt Win The Bonus Round?

As the media fixates on the Romney-Santorum duel that will come to a head in Michigan and Arizona next Tuesday, it’s worth remembering another reason why Mitt’s slog to the nomination may prove more difficult than many thought, and why we shouldn’t yet count Newt Gingrich out: the bonus delegates. These are delegates awarded to states based on whether they meet one or more of the following requirements: the state cast a majority of its votes for the Republican presidential candidate in the previous presidential election, the state elected Republicans to the U.S. House or Senate, it selected a Republican Governor, or the state elected a Republican legislative majority. The formula (see the Green Papers website) for determining how many bonus delegates a state gets varies from the simple – 1 bonus delegate if the state elected a Republican governor between Jan. 1, 2008 and December 31, 2011 – to the more complex – states casting a majority of their 2008 electoral votes for the Republican presidential candidate receive 4.5 + 0.60 × the jurisdiction’s total 2012 electoral vote in bonus delegates.

But the basic point is that the more Republican a state’s voting tendencies are, the more bonus delegates it earns.  This is potentially important, because it means that some Republican-leaning states will award more delegates than larger but more Democratic states by virtue of earning these bonus delegates.  On Super Tuesday March 6, for example, the biggest delegate prize is Georgia, which awards 77 delegates, 11 more than the more populated Ohio, which hands out 66 delegates.  The reason why Georgia awards more than Ohio, even though Ohio is the larger state, is because Georgia is allocated 21 bonus delegates compared to Ohio’s five.  The difference, of course, reflects Ohio’s status as a competitive battleground state, whereas Georgia is solidly Republican.

Because these bonus delegates are awarded statewide, rather than by congressional district, a candidate who does well across that state can get a significant delegate boost. All told, there are 396 bonus delegates at stake in the Republican nomination process (not adjusting for the 50% penalties imposed in five states that held nominating contests too early).  Significantly, however, 164 of these delegates, or about 41% of the total, are clustered in the following nine southern states, (listed in descending order by total bonus delegates): Texas (34), Georgia (21), Tennessee (18), Alabama (16), South Carolina (16 originally, but note that the state was penalized half its total delegates), Louisiana (15), Mississippi (15), Oklahoma (15) and Kentucky (14).  These are all states in which, in theory, either Newt Gingrich or possibly Rick Santorum should be very competitive (Gingrich’s already won South Carolina, of course.)   Looking ahead only to the Super Tuesday contests on March 6, Gingrich has a solid 5-8% polling lead over Santorum in Georgia, the biggest delegate prize that day. Conceivably Gingrich could come out of there with 30-35 delegates, including a plurality of the state’s bonus delegates.

However, if Santorum does show that he can win a large primary state by, for example, beating Mitt in either Arizona or Michigan, he rather than Newt may be the primary beneficiary of these bonus delegate rules on March 6. Looking only at the Super Tuesday states, Santorum currently leads Newt in both Tennessee and Oklahoma, although neither state has been polled extensively at this stage and I suspect Santorum’s support is soft in both places. Gingrich does not look to do as well as Santorum in Ohio, and neither he nor Santorum is on the ballot in Virginia. Romney, of course, should win Vermont and Massachusetts quite easily on Super Tuesday.  If Gingrich does well enough on Super Tuesday to convince the media he remains a viable candidate, however, that may boost his stock somewhat in the remaining southern states  – Louisiana, Mississippi, Kentucky and Arkansas, that have a combined 55 bonus delegates.

In contrast, many states in the Northeast and on the West Coast where Romney is likely to run the strongest have almost no bonus delegates, since these are mostly Democratic strongholds.  Thus, California, New York, Illinois, New Jersey and Pennsylvania – all large states where Mitt and possibly Rick should do well – award a grand total of 9 bonus delegates. The lack of bonus delegates won’t matter, of course, if Mitt is able to parley his advantages in money and organization into sizable victories in these states and if he amasses such a delegate lead that his nomination appears all but inevitable. However, if he continues to stumble, and the delegate race tightens considerably, these bonus delegates may yet prove to be his undoing.

UPDATE 8:53.  Just saw this poll in the field Feb. 16-22 that has Santorum leading in Tennessee with 33% over Romney at 17%, with Gingrich trailing badly at 10%.  If this holds, it is not going to help Gingrich’s “southern strategy”.

Live Blogging the Arizona Debate

We are on. Join in.

As always, it’s fun to see who actually sings the national anthem. Newt never does.  Mitt always does.

And they are true to form tonight – Mitt letting loose, while Newt is stonefaced.

John King – the fastest speaking moderator in the business.

Rick is smiling as he speaks of positive solutions to the Apocalypse as spelled out in the book of Revelations.

Right off the bat, as I predicted, Newt works the energy angle.

Question 1:  how to bring down the growing national debt?

Rick looks like he’s clenching his teeth again.  Not a good sign.  But he hits the major points.

John King invites Mitt to attack Rick….if you ask, I suppose I’ll oblige….

Mitt – I’m a businessman, not a political hack like Rick.

Rick is obviously going to be prepared to respond to Mitt’s attacks.  Mitt is a tax raiser….Rick is not.  Period.

Mitt is in top destroy mode. He is out to crush Rick.  Clearly he has been watching the polls.

Newt – offshore drilling.  Energy, energy, energy…

Ron Paul – love this guy.  Why did you call Rick Santorum a fake?  “Because he’s a fake!”  Even Rick has to laugh at Ron, which may be a sign of just how far Ron’s stock has fallen.  No one is taking him seriously, even when he attacks you…  Rick is still smiling, even as Ron eviscerates him…..

I confess that I’m not entirely sure why Paul has decided to target Rick, unless he’s hoping to be the not-Mitt candidate.

Paul’s medication has kicked in tonight.  He’s well rested and it shows. Feisty, and quick on the response.

Mitt doesn’t wait long to raise the immigration issue.  But why someone doesn’t point out he had to balance the budget by state law in Massachusetts is beyond me. He keeps claiming credit for it.

Newt still hasn’t attacked the media. Is this his opportunity?

Whenever Newt says, “There’s a different question”, he’s ready to pounce.  He plays his immigration card in the guise of talking about the failing of the national government.  Immigration plays well here, and Newt uses it effectively….

Rick – Mitt is an earmarker, and a hypocrite to boot for attacking Rick for earmarks.  Mitt is ready to reel off Rick’s earmark record, you wait.  Rick is trying to inoculate himself against the coming earmark attack.  the crowd doesn’t buy Rick’s extended defense of earmarks, and neither does Mitt.  Hard to make a case that is based on everyone in Congress does it.

Mitt my earmark was for the Olympics. Yours was for the bridge for nowhere.  Now Rick is mad.   And Mitt is getting prissy again.  Newt is winning by doing nothing….

Newt is going to step in to clean up this mess.   There are good earmarks and bad earmarks, and Newt makes it all clear.  Ron joins in.  Not clear that this food fight over earmarks is really helping anyone.  Let’s move on, please.

The auto bailout.  Defend your position.  Presumably this matters to Michigan voters.  (Notice how Mitt responds to jeers from the crowd – it’s what we call “rabbit ears”…    (Newt seems pretty relaxed here).  Mitt says he was a traditional bankruptcy for the auto industry.  I’m not sure people are following this, but I think Mitt’s answer is effective.  Rick does not.

John King: “It’s a tough issue.”  Newt:  No, it’s not. Newt attaboys Mitt, but still gets applause.

Ron Paul wants consistency on bailouts.   He uses the bailout to defend the sanctity of contracts, and liberty too.  Yadayadayada.

First Break

Rick spent too much time defending his record here and got sucked into an earmark foodfight, that as a member of Congress, he can’t win.  Romney was personally irritating, as always, but again he’s done his homework  and came prepared to demolish Rick, just as he did to Newt before Florida.   Ron is amusing, but irrelevant for the most part.  Newt is doing well, but he’s also back in the scenery a bit here….

Social Issue could get things going.  Newt is ready to attack the elite media…..and here it comes!  Newt sets the tone here which is to turn the issue away from Republican views and toward Obama’s views toward “infanticide” and religious exemptions.

You saw this coming – Santorum on the spot for his social views.  He’s not going to back down on this.  I’m never sure how his evident passion on this issue plays – is he too strident for some voters?

Rick likes Ron’s “pills are guns” analogy…

Mitt has really been trying to burnish his social conservative credentials tonight – I’m surprised the others are letting him get away with this.  Let’s see if Rick takes on his record as governor….

Newt takes up the cudgel here.  Remember, Newt’s audience here is southern evangelicals and Tea Party populists…

Great comment from RStrange – it’s hard to believe women are enjoying watching the Republican candidates bashing contraceptive use.  Remember, Rick and Newt have both had gender discrepancies in their polling…

Paul and Mitt are ganging up on Rick, and once again he is trying to parse answers.  The crowd turns….but this has been a pro-Mitt crowd from the get go. (Did he purchase their admission?)  They are even booing Rick attacking Romneycare…… the crowd is fixed!

Mitt is skating here, and Rick can’t do much about it….Again, it helps to have a great research team behind you.  The best debate coaching money can buy…

Finally, someone call Mitt on the phony balanced budget claim.  Rick is on fire…..note that Mitt skillfully blunts the attack by moving Rick to the Spector issue.  too convoluted an explanation by Rick here I think….. neither one of them is really doing themselves any good in this exchange.

Let’s move on to immigration….    (Rick Perry is holding Callista’s hand – turnabout is fair play)

Is Newt still on the stage?  yes he is, with another so simple it must make sense response for curing the border problem.  The Good Newt is back.

Not sure anyone gets very excited by “e-verify” – lots of people just don’t think it works as well as guns and fences.

It’s easy pickings here to back the Arizona law a few days before the Arizona primary.

Newt is finally picking up some steam here….again, he needs to impact voters on Super Tuesday….start with baby debate steps….so he is more likely to soft pedal the immigration issue in order to pick up some Latino vote.

Break II.

Easy one word answer to “define yourself:”  How about: “Presidential”

Santorum fought back a bit here to regain some ground.  But although he scored points against Mitt, it’s not clear to me he’s helped himself so far.  Mitt took some shots, but he’s still ahead on points.  Newt has been the best debater (shades of old Newt) but he hasn’t gotten much air time.  Paul has had some great one liners, and scored heavily against Rick early, but….. .

Courage?  Does Rick mean courageous?  And Newt as cheerful?   I still say presidential was the word of choice.

Did Mitt just mention “emotional” in the context of debating women in the military?  Can he be any more condescending?  How are women going to react to that?

If this Newt had showed up before Florida we might have seen a different outcome.  Of course, no one is attacking him tonight.

Rick already has a gender problem, so he needs to be careful in his response here on military service for women.

Newt is primed for the Iran nuclear issue (he’s got Adelson’s money at stake here!)   He’s not going to say “I’ll stop Israel” taking out Iran’s nukes.

King cuts this off too quickly – I wanted to hear Paul attack Newt on this.

Mitt ends every statement with some version of “If you elect me, that won’t happen, if you reelect the President it will…”

AS you see Rick work himself up on this issue, do you really want him with his finger on the nuclear button?

Here’s where Ron Paul reminds everyone why he can’t win the Republican nomination.  He doesn’t quite grasp the logic of nuclear deterrence.

“We talked to the Soviets” for 50 years, while the Iron Curtain stood in place…..

Did Rick say how he would actually solve the Syria problem?  If so, I missed it.

Newt harping on energy once again. This is a major part of his plan to resurrect his campaign.   He makes overthrowing Syria seem so simple.  Rick agrees. If only it was… .

Paul tries again, this time pushing the economic costs of overseas intervention.   My guess it won’t play any better than the moral and constitutional issues did with Republican voters.

Rick’s candid admission that he made a mistake backing NCLB for the sake of the team actually seems to have attracted some applause.

Newt is on his game tonight.  But again, it’s easier to do when everyone has counted you out.  And he only has one debate, not a dozen, to debate his way back into this race.   But he’s on a roll here with his riff on education…..

Newt has replaced Bachmann as the designated laugher in reaction to Ron’s one-liner’s …  Ron isn’t letting Rick off the hook here.  Still not sure why he’s serving as Mitt’s handmaiden.  Is this an effort to get Mitt to put Rand Paul on the ticket?

BREAK

Last debate section went to Newt.  Mitt has receded a bit, but it doesn’t matter because Rick didn’t really step up to fill the void.  The pro-Mitt audience here is a reminder of why organization matters.

Last Question:  What’s the biggest misconception the public has about you?

Paul: That I can’t win.  Sadly, that’s not a misconception.  He can’t win.  Outside of a brokered convention.

Gingrich:  If there was one thing that I want the American people to know about me is what I accomplished while speaker….track record of getting things done.

Mitt:  As always, he’s not answering the question.  This guy is fundamentally unlikable, when you get right down to it.  Once in a while you see flashes of the guy who grew up expecting people to do what he wants.   Not a pretty sight.

Rick:  not really answering the question, but I guess he’s saying he’s more electable than people think.

And that’s it.  Time for the Spin!

Borger is up first with Rick and the Rickettes! Is Rick, Jr. wearing a sweater vest?  Oh yeah!

I wonder how kids feel when they are essentially props in a campaign?  Look at those smiling faces – painted on!

Now to Paul – he says he’s in second place in delegates.  Formally speaking, counting conservatively, I still don’t think that’s true.  I think Newt is ahead of him.  But, no matter.  Remember, for a guy making an argument that he’s most electable, the fact is he hasn’t won anything yet – not even Maine.

My quick impressions:  given the hype, no one really stood out as having an effective performance.  Of the four, Gingrich was the strongest performer, bringing back shades of the old Newt.   The problem is it is not clear that one debate is enough to change the media narrative here which is writing him off.  Perhaps it played better in some of the Super Tuesday events and will give him a boost over Santorum there.  If so, that’s what he hoped for.   The big loser in my mind was Santorum.  He stumbled early by getting dragged into the details of a debate over Arlen Spector and earmarks.  He sounded defensive.  He picked it up considerably in the second half, and turned the tables a bit on Mitt with the critique of balanced budgets and Romneycare, but he didn’t clearly differentiate himself from Mitt. nor perform so well as to give voters in Michigan and Arizona a reason to choose him over Mitt.  That’s what he needed to do, and I just don’t think he capitalized on his moment in the sun.

Mitt was Mitt – well prepared, but in a way that demonstrated that his strengths are his weaknesses.  He has money, a strong opposition research team, the organization to pack the hall – but he’s not very likeable.  Again, he showed flashes of the “I’m rich and therefore you have to play by my rules” Mitt that is hard to like.  I think he did enough damage to Rick here to perhaps squeeze out wins in both Michigan and Arizona, but once again I saw no evidence that he can expand his support into the Tea Party/evangelical crowd.  There’s just no connection there.

Finally, Ron Paul: Good night for him, but he’s running in the wrong nominating race when it comes to foreign policy.  This isn’t to say he’s wrong – only that his isolationist views (I know, it’s “non-interventionist”) just aren’t going to fly with this voting crowd.  Otherwise, he was entertaining, he was pithy, he hit the usual talking points but with high energy.  All in all a good performance for him.

(David Gergen was just on CNN arguing the contraceptive issues and other reproductive concerns drive the gender gap in presidential voting in recent decades.  This is completely wrong – the gender gap is rooted in different views toward security and social welfare – not so-called “women’s” issues.   Shame on David.)

Good job tonight – thanks for the great participation! I’ll be on tomorrow with the post-mortem…..meanwhile, everyone pour a scotch, kick back and relax….