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Fox News, Media Bias and the Obama Attack Strategy, Part II

I want to continue the discussion from my last post regarding media bias and the Obama administration’s decision to take on Fox News.  At a minimum, as Jason suggests in his comments on my last post, we expect a news organization to accurately report the news.  Jason argues that Fox’s record in this regard is dubious.  He may be right – but I have no evidence regarding the relative accuracy of different news outlets beyond the occasional anecdote.   Here liberals and conservatives trot out their pet examples (see, for example, Dan Rather, CBS and the Bush-National Guard story vs. Fox News and Obama’s support for “death panels”.)  Nor is Jason the only one to critique Fox News – Jacob Weisberg at Slate is among many who argue that there exists persuasive evidence that Fox is not a legitimate news organization (see here.)  Evidently, the Obama administration has calculated that by building on these sentiments,  they have more to gain than they have to lose in publicly taking on Fox News.   I think this is a mistake, in large part because the strategy risks distracting from the coverage of their major policy initiatives.  The more coverage devoted to the Fox news controversy, the less time spent on the details of health care. In this respect they are stepping on their own story.  More problematic, however, I think they risk alienating the moderate middle of this country, particularly independents that worry less about partisan point scoring and more about whether the Obama administration has effectively addressed their concerns.

To see why Obama may be making a mistake, and to more systematically address the question of media bias, consider the following study, published in 2005, of news coverage by the major U.S. news organizations, including Fox News (actually, Brit Hume’s old Fox news show). This study, by Tim Groseclose and Jeff Milyo is one of the few (maybe the only) efforts of which I know that tries to measure media bias in a more systematic fashion. (I urge you to read the original article here.)  Essentially, what they do is create a measure of media bias for several major media outlets, including Fox, across a 10-year period.  (More accurately, they select an observation period for each media outlet that yields 300 observations – enough to draw valid conclusions.) They do so by counting the times that a particular media outlet relies on particular think tanks (for example, Brookings, or the Heritage Foundation) or policy groups (such as the ACLU or the NRA) as a source for their story, and then they compare that to the number of times that members of Congress cite those same sources in their public comments.  Since we have reasonable measures for the ideologies of members of Congress, we can use this data to place the news outlets that cite these think tanks and other sources on an ideological spectrum.  For example, we would expect the liberal Ted Kennedy to rely more on research from the left-leaning Brookings Institution than on studies from the conservative Heritage Foundation.  If the New York Times, in its stories, also relies on Brookings more than Heritage to the same degree as Kennedy, Groseclose and Milyo code the Times as having a similar bias as Kennedy.  The underlying logic of this measure rests on the idea that journalists rely on their sources to write their stories, and if those sources tend to represent one side of the ideological divide, then their stories will tend to reflect that bias. The authors assume that the public, ideologically speaking, is located somewhere at the middle of the Congressional spectrum.

Using this methodology, what do Groseclose and Milyo find?  On the whole, they show that the major news outlets in the United States do show a consistent liberal bias.  In their words,

“Our results show a strong liberal bias: all of the news outlets we examine, except Fox News’ Special Report and the Washington Times, received scores to the left of the average member of Congress. Consistent with claims made by conservative critics, CBS Evening News and the New York Times received scores far to the left of center. The most centrist media outlets were PBS NewsHour, CNN’s Newsnight, and ABC’s Good Morning America; among print outlets, USA Today was closest to the center. All of our findings refer strictly to news content; that is, we exclude editorials, letters, and the like.”

The following table, taken from Groseclose’s website, provides a graphical representation of their findings.  (Note that the Wall St. Journal rankings refer to their regular coverage of the news – not their editorials!).  The higher the ranking on the table, the more liberal the views/coverage.  The “average” U.S. voter is placed at about 50 on the ADA scale, located on the left of the table. It runs from zero (most conservative) to 100 (most liberal).

The table suggests that Fox News (more specifically, the Fox News Special Report with Brit Hume) is more conservative than the other major news outlets – but it is also closer to the “average” American voter/member of Congress than are most of those other news outlets.  In short, there is evidence to support both liberals’ claims that Fox is out of step with the mainstream media, and Fox defenders who argue it provides news coverage that is more in synch with the views of most Americans.

The study is not without critics (see, for example, here and here).  But it is one of the few efforts made to develop a measure for bias that is replicable by other political scientists, and which goes beyond the commonly cited anecdotal evidence that so often characterizes the often heated debate regarding media coverage.  As such, it’s a welcome step forward in trying to put this debate on more systematic footing.

I should add that it is consistent with Bert Johnson’s comments at the end of my last post. Bert took my structural bias argument a step further to suggest that the major news outlets give their audiences what they want to hear – the key word being “audience.”  In an era of dwindling audiences, news organizations are struggling to maintain readers (or viewers), and to do so they are increasingly trying to differentiate their product in a way that distinguishes their news coverage from that of their competitors.  That means pitching their content toward the attentive audience, rather than simply the “average” U.S. voter.  As Bert notes, the attentive audience typically has more ideologically extreme views than that of Mr. and Ms. Sixpack from Palooka, USA.  It follows, then, that in an increasingly segmented news industry, cable outlets and other news sources will abandon any pretense of ideological “neutrality”  in a rush to stake out an unocccupied spot on the ideological spectrum of attentive viewers.   The Groseclose/Milyo study suggests this is precisely what is happening; news outlets are differentiating themselves by catering to the more opinionated and attentive portion of the news audience.  They do so for structural reasons related to market share and profits, and not because they are in the hip pocket of the Democratic (or Republican) party.

The danger, of course, is in their rush to stake out a position along the ideological extremes, the news media may exacerbate the polarization of political discourse in this country.  Even worse, they may ignore the interests of the moderate middle spectrum of Americans who care very little about the purity of partisan politics, and instead simply want a government that works well, regardless of ideology.

It’s Not Rocket Science: Explaining the Sotamayor Vote

It’s not rocket science – it’s political science.

In the wake of the Senate vote to confirm Sonia Sotamayor’s nomination to the Supreme Court (see the NY Times story here), some pundits are scratching their heads trying to explain how 31 Republicans could have voted against her. By doing so, these pundits argue, Republicans needlessly risk alienating Latino voters.  And yet sophisticated statistical analyses seem to suggest that the number of Hispanic constituents in a Senator’s state had very little relation to how that Senator voted.   This has left some pundits scrambling to explain what might have motivated Republican voters.  Thus, Nate Silver, using regression analysis, suggests Republicans might have been more worried about alienating the NRA – which came out against Sotamayor’s nomination – than about losing Latino voters (see here).  I have a good deal of respect for Silver’s methodological skills (if not his political judgment) but I think Silver’s explanation, like that of many pundits who have weighed in on this issue, is needlessly complex and betrays a basic misunderstanding of political fundamentals.  As I suggested in an earlier post, the Sotamayor nomination wasn’t likely to turn on the issue of race (or interest group pressure)- it turned on political ideology.  Votes on court nominees are largely votes about ideology. (My suspicion, without seeing Silver’s numbers, is that his use of the NRA in his regression simply serves as a proxy for Senate ideology).  A vote for Sotamayor was a vote for what is almost certainly going to be a consistently liberal voice on the Court.  This suggests that only the most liberal Republicans would consider voting for her.  And this is precisely what happened. Consider the nine Senate Republicans who voted to confirm Sotamayor:

George Voinovich of Ohio;

Judd Gregg of New Hampshire;

Kit Bond of Missouri;

Lindsey Graham of South Carolina;

Susan Collins of Maine;

Olympia Snowe of Maine;

Mel Martinez of Florida;

Richard Lugar of Indiana;

Lamar Alexander of Tennessee.

How many of these Senators represent states with a significant Latino population?  Only Martinez, from Florida, a state with the third highest number of Latinos (about 3.3 million).   But how do they rank in terms of ideology?  There are currently 40 Republicans Senators. Let’s list the top 9 most liberal Republican Senators, using Simon Jackman’s ideological rankings (see here), beginning with the most liberal and working toward more conservative, and see where those who voted for Sotamayor fall on this list.

To make my point more obvious, I will place the two lists side by side; on the left are the top 9 most liberal Republican Senators, and on the right are the 9 Senators who voted FOR Sotamayor.  See if you can detect a pattern!:

Most Liberal Republicans in the Senate (in order beginning with most Liberal) Nine Republican Senators Voting for Sotamayor
Olympia Snowe – Maine Snowe
Susan Collins – Maine Collins
George Voinovich – Ohio Voinovich
Debra Murkowski – Arkansas Graham
Richard Lugar – Indiana Lugar
Mel Martinez – Florida Martinez
Kit Bond – Missouri Bond
Lamar Alexander – Tennessee Alexander
Judd Gregg – New Hampshire Gregg

At the risk of stating the obvious, support for Sotamayor among Republicans Senators came from 9 of the 10 most liberal Republican Senators (only Murkowski among liberal Senators voted against her).  It was ideology, not race or ethnicity that drove this vote, much as I surmised in my earlier post when arguing why Republicans ought to vote against her.  And this is why Jon Cornyn and Kay Bailey Hutchison, who represent Texas which has the second largest Latino population in the country, nonetheless felt comfortable voting against Sotamayor.  Texas may be 20% Latino, but it voted Republican in the 2008 presidential election.  My point is not that Republicans don’t care about Latino voters – they do.  But they also can’t ignore their core voters who support them every six years.

When it comes to politics, sometimes the simplest explanations are the best explanations.

Oh, by the way, I’ll be keeping that t-shirt. At least until the next contest.

It Wasn’t Always Like This: Sotomayor and Senate Polarization

The Senate Judiciary committee is scheduled to vote on the Sotomayor nomination today. Based on the statements made by Senators so far, the vote will almost surely break down along straight party lines, with all but one of the seven Republicans voting against confirmation, and all 12 Democrats voting in favor.  The Republican exception is likely to be Sen. Lindsey Graham from South Carolina, who has already said he will support Sotomayor despite his belief that she will vote “left of center.”  Graham is defending his stance by arguing that presidents deserve some deference when it comes to their judicial nominees.   Graham’s view used to be the prevailing norm among most Senators – but it is no longer the case.

Note that it is not unusual for members of the Judiciary Committee to differ along ideological lines.  Unlike other Senate committees that deal with more “bread and butter” issues, such as tax or spending,  that can be disaggregated and parceled out to states, the issues addressed by the Judiciary Committee, such as judicial appointments – are less amenable to log-rolling and compromise.  One either supports the nominee or does not – there’s no way to divvy up the benefits or costs. For this reason, senators who self-select to become members of the Judiciary Committee tend to be the more ideologically extreme than the party as a whole.

We can see this by comparing the ideological rankings of Judiciary Committee members as based on their voting records to the average of their party as a whole.  Remember, the scores range from 1 (most conservative) to -1 (most liberal).

The mean score for the Democratic Party in the 110th Senate (2007-08) is -.47.  However, the mean score for Democrats serving on the Judiciary Committee (not counting Arlen Specter because he voted as a Republican last year) is -.57.  This does not include Al Franken, who hasn’t voted enough to calculate a voting score as yet (but whom Simon Jackman, using his own voting scale, has placed on the liberal end of the Senate voting scale.)

Similarly, the mean score for all Senate Republicans, based on voting in the previous session, is .45.  But for Republicans on the Judiciary Committee, it is .57.

So, we see that Democrats on the Judiciary Committee are, on average, more liberal than the Democratic Party as a whole, while Republican committee members are more conservative.  So we shouldn’t be surprised at all if the Committee votes the Sotomayor nomination up on an almost straight party line vote.

By the way, here are the members of the Senate Judiciary Committee:


Democratic Members – Judiciary Committee

Patrick J. Leahy
Chairman, D-Vermont

Herb Kohl
D-Wisconsin

Dianne Feinstein
D-California

Charles E. Schumer
D-New York

Russell D. Feingold
D-Wisconsin

Richard J. Durbin
D-Illinois

Benjamin L. Cardin
D-Maryland

Sheldon Whitehouse
D-Rhode Island

Amy Klobuchar
D-Minnesota

Edward E. Kaufman
D-Delaware

Arlen Specter
D-Pennsylvania

Al Franken
D-Minnesota

Republican Committee Members

Jeff Sessions
Ranking Member, R-Alabama

Orrin G. Hatch
R-Utah

Charles E. Grassley
R-Iowa

Jon Kyl
R-Arizona

Lindsey Graham
R-South Carolina

John Cornyn
R-Texas

Tom Coburn
R-Oklahoma


If the committee does split along party lines, it will continue a pattern of committee voting dating back to the Roberts nomination. In 2006, when Republicans controlled the Senate, the Judiciary Committee voted along straight party lines 10-8 to forward Justice Samuel A. Alito Jr.’s nomination to the full Senate, where he was later confirmed by a 58-42 vote, with only four Democrats in favor.

In 2005, Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr. passed the Judiciary committee with a 13-5 vote, with three of eight Democrats supporting him. He was confirmed in the Senate by a 78-22 margin, with half the Democrats voting for him and half against.

However, although the Judiciary Committee has always been a more ideologically divided committee, that partisan division has become more pronounced in recent years.  It used to be that when it came to nominees for the Supreme Court, there was a greater willingness among senators to take the Graham route and defer to the president.  In this regard, both Sen. Charles E. Grassley of Iowa and Orrin G. Hatch of Utah have said they will vote against Sotomayor. If so, it would be their first “no” votes on a Supreme Court nominee.  The switch in philosophies is perhaps not a coincidence, given that, as a Senator, Obama voted against Roberts and Alito.

In an interview, Grassley defended his decision not to defer to Obama by noting that the Senate had changed: “I think it’s a whole new ballgame, a lot different than I approached it with [Justice Ruth Bader] Ginsburg and [Justice Stephen G.] Breyer.” (As I noted in a previous post, Ginsburg and Breyer – Clinton’s two nominees – were confirmed by 96-3 and 87-9 margins, respectively.)

Prior to this decade, Supreme Court justices who won confirmation usually had the backing of most of the Senate. Justices John Paul Stevens, Antonin Scalia and Anthony M. Kennedy all won confirmation by unanimous votes. Justice David H. Souter was confirmed by a 90-9 vote in 1990.  The exception, of course, was the highly charged debate over Clarence Thomas, who was confirmed by a 52-48 vote in 1991.  Nor am I including those nominees who were defeated in a Senate vote – see my previous post for my discussion of those candidates.)

The increasingly partisan debate over judicial nominees reflects the convergence of two trends that I have discussed before in this blog: the widening ideological gap between the two parties, and the increasing tendency of the courts to take a more activist approach in their rulings, making them a more potent policymaking tool.  Both Senate sides recognize this, and it is why I argued in my previous post that Republicans ought to vote against Sotamayor, and Democrats for her.  So far, both sides seem inclined to do just that.  Note, however, that at least five Republicans in addition to Graham – none of them on the Judiciary Committee – have indicated they will vote for Sotamayor when the full Senate considers her nomination.

At this stage, given my estimate that the over/under on the full Senate vote stands at 31, I may win my own “It’s the Fundamentals, Stupid” t-shirt.

Viewer Mail: Murray Dry, Specter and the Future of the Party System

It’s viewer mail time. As most of you know, ever since this blog went on the air in the late 1950’s I’ve periodically taken the opportunity to catch up with your comments and questions, which are often more illuminating than the blogs to which they refer.  Let me begin by noting my colleague Murray Dry’s mild objection to my criticism of New York Time’s reporter Jeff Zeleny’s question at Obama’s last press conference.  In case you missed it, Zeleny asked Obama, “During these first 100 days, what has surprised you the most about this office, enchanted you the most about serving this in office, humbled you the most and troubled you the most?”  Obama responded in a half-humorous, half serious manner, dutiful responding to each of Zeleny’s four miniquestions. My initial reaction was that the question was a perfectly good waste of a precious opportunity. Far better that someone had pushed Obama on torture, or Afghanistan, or health care than ask this, “If you were a tree, what kind would you be?” type question.  Upon reflection, however, I think that’s too positive a reaction – the question was worse than that – it was completely asinine and Zeleny should have his press accreditation revoked.

Murray disagrees.  He writes,   “When I first read this I was not sure if you were referring to the question I thought you were, which, I confess was the one that most interested me. Now I know that it was and I want to reply. Zeleny’s was the only question, I believe, that elicited a spontaneous reply and I found that both refreshing and informative.  Assuming that we do not disagree on that, I am guessing that your interest in the press conference is more like that of an umpire in a chess match: what moves are put on the President and how ably does he reply, which is to say, how effectively does he manage to “stay on message” without necessarily telling us anything new. Is that about it?”

I understand and empathize with Murray’s reaction.  Like all professors, we appreciate, I think, “students” (especially former Harvard Law students!) who demonstrate that they can think on their feet when thrown a curveball.  It’s how we test our grad students, or senior honors candidates, during their oral defense.  I confess, however, that I don’t think there’s much correlation between being able to react to an off-script question and being an effective president.  Indeed, I am tempted to argue that if there is a relationship, it is inverse – those presidents who demonstrate a type of “lawyer’s skill” at thinking quickly on one’s feet and who can score debating points or engage in skillful repartee at press conferences often make the worst presidents. The reason is because they approach decisionmaking, and leadership more generally, as if it is a logic problem that can be solved through sheer intellect. More generally, I worry that academics (and I’m not pointing the finger at Murray here) generally focus on the wrong attributes in assessing presidents – we should care less about verbal reasoning and SAT scores, and more about political instincts, prior experiences and deeply-held values – none of which would be exposed by Zeleny’s question. I’m speculating in the absence of clear-cut data, of course. My more immediate reason for criticizing Zeleny’s question is that press conferences are most useful if they force presidents to explain policy decisions.  It’s not supposed to be an oral exam (if you can even call Zeleny’s softball question an “exam”.)  Students who do well on their oral exams should become professors – not presidents.

When the Arlen Specter story first broke, Jack Goodman wondered about a Ridge-Specter matchup.  I speculated that Ridge would be a tough opponent for Specter.  We now have two more polls suggesting that is the case.   A Susquehanna automated interactive poll (one in which respondents press numbers on the phone keypads in response to an automated voice) has Ridge beating Specter, 39-38% (within the poll’s margin of error, so essentially a tossup), but Specter beating the more conservative Pat Toomey 42-26%. A Public Opinion Strategy (a Republican polling firm) survey taken at about the same time had similar results; Specter beats Toomey 49-40, but loses to Ridge, 48-41%.

More interesting, perhaps, the POS poll also indicates that Specter would trounce the more liberal Democrat Joe Sestak in the Democratic primary, 57-20% and – somewhat surprisingly, perhaps – Ridge would handily beat conservative Toomey in the Republican primary, 60-23%.  These results provide additional ammunition for my initial claim that Specter’s voting patterns as a Democrat aren’t likely to vary much from when he was a Republican since his primary electoral opposition isn’t likely to come from the Left – it’s from the moderate Right.  The results have also, if news reports are to be believed, encouraged Ridge to consider tossing his hat into the ring.  All this has to make Democrats think they were better off if Specter had remained a Republican, which might have kept Ridge out of the race altogether and opened it up for a true Democrat to defeat Specter in 2010.

Reacting to my blog on changing partisan affiliation among the general public, Andrew suggests that as national politics have become more polarized, people have moved from being weak partisans to self-identifying more as leaning independents – that is, they’ve become less wedded to the parties.  I’ve graphed that movement here.  The upper trend line shows the decline in “weak partisans” and the lower trend line shows the increase in “leaning independents” (I’ve included linear trend lines as well).  The middle line shows the curvilinear trend of the strong partisans, revealing a gradual decline from the high in 1964 to its low point in 1978, where it begins increasing again.

Andy seems to be correct that there’s an inverse relationship between the number of weak partisans and those self identifying as leaning independents, but the relationship seems to predate the gradual increase in strong partisans beginning at the start of the Reagan presidency in 1980.  In other words, weak partisans began switching to leaning independents even before the uptick in the number of strong partisans in the public.  A superficial read would suggest Andy has the causal relationship backward – that as a subset of the public became less wedded to parties, another portion reacted by strengthening their party attachments.  I’m not quite sure what to make of that pattern – thoughts?  Of course, it may be that the two patterns are not related at all.

Finally, if you get a chance take a look at Marty’s very thoughtful comment regarding my previous blog on changing partisan attachments. I want to respond more fully to his warning re: the potential “dark side” to malleable partisan attachments; that parties’ use of fear as a framing strategy can swing support their way.  This is really a fascinating issue that deserves a more complete response.  As a tease, however, let me offer a somewhat different take:  that a significant subset of people doesn’t hold “coherent” ideological views that correspond closely to a single party platform. Instead, they mix and match policy views without regard to ideological consistency.  As a result, they are quite willing to switch party allegiances (and candidates) depending on the issues du jour.  That’s what I tried to suggest when I argued that there is a core of “moderate” Americans who tend to be quite pragmatic in their policy views and moderate in their ideological leanings.

As always, keep those comments coming!  We are here to serve…

Meet the “New” Specter. Same as the ‘Ol Specter.

Meet the New Specter. Same as the ‘ol Specter.

So much for his leftward shift in voting. (At least so far!)  In case you missed it, in an important vote on the day after announcing his defection, Senator Arlen Specter sided with his former Republicans to vote against the Obama-backed $3.4 trillion budget resolution. That resolution lays out the administration’s tax and spending priorities for health care, education and other issues for the next fiscal year.   The spending plan passed without a single Republican vote in either the House or Senate. In the Senate, the vote was 53-43, with four Democrats, including Specter, voting against it.  The House had earlier approved the resolution by 233-193, with 17 Democrats voting with the Republicans.  I’ll have more to say about the budget resolution later (including the inclusion of a provision allowing health care legislation to come up under filibuster-proof reconciliation instructions), but for now I thought it was an interesting test case regarding Specter’s likely voting pattern as a Democrat, at least in name.

But wait. There’s more. Later in the week the Senate defeated a provision to a bankruptcy reform measure designed to allow homeowners meeting certain guidelines to renegotiate their mortgages (or “cramdown”) under bankruptcy protection.  The bill was opposed by the banking industry but supported by the Obama administration and many Democrats.  Nonetheless, Democrats did not come close to mustering the votes needed to overcome a threatened filibuster, getting only 45 votes, or 15 less than needed to invoke cloture. And once again Specter voted with his former, Republican, party, against the Democratic majority.  (All Republicans, joined by 12 Democrats, opposed the measure to invoke cloture.)

What’s going on here?  It’s Specter staying true to his constituency, while keeping a nervous eye on the upcoming 2010 election.  So far, his biggest fear is not from the unknown candidate in the Democratic primary (he’s evidently counting on the Democratic party clearing the field for him) – it’s from his likely Republican opposition in the general election.

Of course, this is only two votes.  The budget resolution was clearly going to pass the Senate no matter what Specter did. (Note that the budget resolution is not subject to filibuster in the Senate).  And it is only a budget blueprint – the overall numbers still must be reconciled with the separate tax and spending bills.  The “cramdown” amendment, meanwhile, didn’t even have much support among conservative Democrats. On other issues, most notably health care reform and climate change, I expect that Specter will be much more willing to work with the Democrats. But these initial votes provide early evidence of my claim that, contrary to what many political scientists were suggesting, he is likely to remain the same moderate swing vote that he was before the switch.

By the way, here’s Specter’s party support scores according to CQ (via USAToday):

How often Sen. Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania voted with or against his party

since 2000 as a Republican:

Year Support Oppose
2008 62% 38%
2007 49% 51%
2006 61% 39%
2005 69% 31%
2004* 70% 30%
2003 84% 16%
2002 60% 40%
2001 60% 40%
2000 67% 33%

* Specter was up for re-election in 2004

Source: Congressional Quarterly

So as recently as 2007 he was already voting against his party more often than not.  I expect that will happen with more frequency now, but as these two recent crucial votes indicate, he’s not a lock to vote the Democratic party line by any means.

P.S.  I’ve gotten lots of inquiries regarding the Souter resignation, and whether Hillary is next in line for the court.  Believe it or not, there are some basic rules of thumb regarding who presidents tend to nominate to the high court.  The next few days are busy, but I’ll try to get some data on this issue.  But let me offer a tease: there’s lots of evidence that politicians, as opposed to those who are deeply steeped in legal training (legal scholars), make more “effective” justices, because they are more amenable to compromise and splitting the differences between competing views, which in turn produces more moderate, and publicly acceptable, court decisions.