Live blogging on the Palin speech…

Ok, she’s on.

Lots of shots of her husband carrying their youngest (judging by the calm demeanor the baby has been guzzling high octane scotch).

Two minutes in and the first reference to a) being a Mom and b) her son’s military service.  Lots of shots of her son.

Here’s the humanizing part – introducing the kids!  They smile on key.  And then there’s Trig – oblivious, as he should be.

Ok, here comes the family biography, starting with special needs.   And the husband!  He hits the Republican trifecta: works in oil fields, is a fisherman and is a champion snowmobiler!

Six minutes in and the first “hockey Mom/PTA” reference.

Another baby shot. Hasn’t moved yet – is it a real baby?  Wish I had some of that scotch.

She’s rolling now – no mistakes so far.

Here’s the drilling pitch – get ready for the chant.

More Obama bashing…. all style, no substance, etc.  Red meat.  Even Cindy likes it.

The first Obama as Messiah reference.

The first Obama as a tax and spend liberal reference…

The first Michigan and Ohio reference… followed by Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Minnesota.  Guess what McCain views as the battleground states?

Ok, the McCain as change reference.  Look for the glass ceiling reference to come soon…

More Obama as “community organizer” reference.  Again, the Republicans will win if this election comes down to comparing Palin and Obama’s experience (or lack thereof).

More on the style vs. substance/ rhetoric vs. deed comparison.

36 minutes and she’s done.  The obligatory family shot. What has that baby been drinking? Still calm.  And of course – Mom gets the baby!  Nice, nice touch.

And, of course, McCain is on stage. Two can play at this game.

First hurdle – Palin cleared it easily.  A very very effective speech.  So effective, in fact, that it will be easy to overestimate its impact on the election.  Remember, in two weeks, this will largely be forgotten, if history is any guide.  But on first impression, just additional evidence that McCain’s roll of the dice has come up huge.  She could have easily pulled a Quayle, but didn’t.  This was about as good as Republicans could expect and about as bad as Democrats feared.  She came across as presidential. Period.  But it is likely to have very little impact on the election – unless this year is something different.  Remember, you can’t judge the impact of this speech by the reaction of Republicans in the hall – we need to see how conservative women, and disaffected Clinton voters, react.  Did she win over the moderate women voters who may be on the fence?

Stay tuned.