Wow! Professor Dickinson predicting a win for Trump? I’m shocked.
To be fair, I tried to make it clear to the interviewer that I had no clue, but he persisted.
One of the interesting things to me is that we focus on Iowa, NH, and SC. But if I recall Nevada caucuses somewhere in there (dems before SC right?). Why is there so little media coverage of the great gambling state?
Chris,
That’s right. Polling has been a little sparse in Nevada, but the candidates have all spent time there. A s a caucus state, you might think Sanders could do well, but the non-white population is higher there too.
Always enjoy your dose of sanity on Election nights! Completely agree that Bernie needs to win in Iowa for the reason you state–that point seems to be missed by so many media outlets.
If the results hold up and Cruz “upsets” Trump is there anything we should take away in terms of the poll results? Meaning, Huff posts Pollster had a 7 point difference in average between Trump and Cruz. Are they missing the boat? Or was there not enough time for the average to catch up with the most recent results?
Chris – Iowa is notoriously tough to poll, so I wouldn’t draw too many generalizations from the fact that they underestimated Cruz’ support. Keep in mind that both Santorum and Huckabee both overshot their polling support in 2008 and 2012 respectively, and neither went anywhere in the race thereafter.
Are you surprised that Clinton has 50% and Sanders has 49%? I really expected a wider margin.
Not a lot of surprising stuff from entrance polls as far as I can tell. Cruz’s support seems very similar to Santorum’s, and Rubio holds major advantage with voters concerned with electability. Still trying to figure out what patterns predict states where Trump will do well/poorly. Other than moderation, but he may not be all that much better in those states either. Interesting to note that Trump did relatively poorly among late deciders.
Elsa,
Caucuses are notoriously difficult to poll – in 2012, the polls underestimated Santorum’s finally tally by 7%. They also underestimated Huckabee in 2008. Generally the polls underestimate the more ideologically extreme candidate’s performance. Let’s face it – this is probably Sanders’ best early state, along with NH. The fact that he only tied her here is not a good sign for his candidacy. However, the media may spin it in his favor, which is another matter.
Sam,
The late decider vote is interesting – pundits are spinning this as a function of his skipping the Fox debate. Note that about 40% of NH voters decided in the last week in 2012 in the Republican race.
Wow! Professor Dickinson predicting a win for Trump? I’m shocked.
To be fair, I tried to make it clear to the interviewer that I had no clue, but he persisted.
One of the interesting things to me is that we focus on Iowa, NH, and SC. But if I recall Nevada caucuses somewhere in there (dems before SC right?). Why is there so little media coverage of the great gambling state?
Chris,
That’s right. Polling has been a little sparse in Nevada, but the candidates have all spent time there. A s a caucus state, you might think Sanders could do well, but the non-white population is higher there too.
Always enjoy your dose of sanity on Election nights! Completely agree that Bernie needs to win in Iowa for the reason you state–that point seems to be missed by so many media outlets.
If the results hold up and Cruz “upsets” Trump is there anything we should take away in terms of the poll results? Meaning, Huff posts Pollster had a 7 point difference in average between Trump and Cruz. Are they missing the boat? Or was there not enough time for the average to catch up with the most recent results?
Chris – Iowa is notoriously tough to poll, so I wouldn’t draw too many generalizations from the fact that they underestimated Cruz’ support. Keep in mind that both Santorum and Huckabee both overshot their polling support in 2008 and 2012 respectively, and neither went anywhere in the race thereafter.
Are you surprised that Clinton has 50% and Sanders has 49%? I really expected a wider margin.
Not a lot of surprising stuff from entrance polls as far as I can tell. Cruz’s support seems very similar to Santorum’s, and Rubio holds major advantage with voters concerned with electability. Still trying to figure out what patterns predict states where Trump will do well/poorly. Other than moderation, but he may not be all that much better in those states either. Interesting to note that Trump did relatively poorly among late deciders.
Elsa,
Caucuses are notoriously difficult to poll – in 2012, the polls underestimated Santorum’s finally tally by 7%. They also underestimated Huckabee in 2008. Generally the polls underestimate the more ideologically extreme candidate’s performance. Let’s face it – this is probably Sanders’ best early state, along with NH. The fact that he only tied her here is not a good sign for his candidacy. However, the media may spin it in his favor, which is another matter.
Sam,
The late decider vote is interesting – pundits are spinning this as a function of his skipping the Fox debate. Note that about 40% of NH voters decided in the last week in 2012 in the Republican race.