It’s 6:30, and I welcome everyone to the Presidential Power Election Night Live Blog. As always, I invite everyone to join in via the comments section. Now that the software glitch (that would be me), my comments should post on your screen as I post them. We’ll be heading over to the Karl Rove Crossroads Superpac Cafe (Ok, just the Crossroads Cafe) in a moment, where I’ll be joined by my colleague and co-host Bert Johnson, and where I’ll have my crack research team – Anna Esten, Sarah Pfander and Owen Witek on the computers crunching the election returns all night long. Danny Zhang – the fourth member of the team – is on the ground in Colorado, a swing state, where I hope he’ll sent us some reports.
But first – some bad news. They aren’t serving beer at the Cafe tonight! Damn you, Karl Rove!
Matt, Italy is here. Perhaps you could get take out?
No beer…?! What?!
Things have gone down hill since you left Tarsi!
Since there is no real news to report, one thing to note about how Italians view our election: they can’t possibly conceptualize how important we think debates are. Rhetoric and argument are important here, but they find it fascinating that we place so much emphasis on the drama of the debate. Which, in light of the fundamentals, and the actual unfolding of the race, we shouldn’t.
Professor, we’re here in the Karl Rove Cafe… where are you?!?
Clearly….! People are getting hysterical about exit polls…
Hi Prof. Dickinson –
I don’t have too much info about turnout in NV. Been out knocking on doors all day, about to go for a last push. Haven’t heard anything about long lines yet.
Speaking of Italians’ impression of the craziness: Italian TV crews visited the Harvard campus yesterday and were grilling students about who they wanted to vote for. Here’s a clip of their report (which I showed my beginning Italian students in class today!) http://www.rai.tv/dl/RaiTV/programmi/media/ContentItem-2c31e7d1-8986-4d41-954e-61719d07689d.html
Their take: Obama seems more “simpatico”, Romney more “preparato” in the eyes of the college students.
In 2008, when I was living there, the slant was decidedly pro-Obama in the media – looking forward to hearing what Prof. Cason has to report from this election!
we’re getting close to 7pm projections! a question of ballot challenges….for Ohio (provisionals)…
I miss the days when Roosevelt was the non-partisan entity w/ college Dems/Repubs
So someone at my table just made the point about a lack of turnout in some northeast states due to Sandy….how much do you think that will affect the popular vote, at all, enough to make the electoral/popular split?
Sarah–just a quick response here, and will have more to report later, but most Italians that I have spoken with have more or less fallen out of love with Obama, but are still happier with him than the alternative. Not that they think it will be a repeat of Bush (2), necessarily, but they have a more favorable opinion about Obama, to be sure–
Checking in from Maine!! Looking forward to a great night. Hosting a home election party. We will keep people up to date on Question 1 (Same-sex marriage)
Hey Chris – what the word on Angus King, and on the same sex initiative.
For those watching CNN, don’t you love the Wolf/King interaction? Doesn’t it seem almost like it was Jon Stewart?
Angus is a SHOE in for sure!! Yes on 1 is looking very good. This is historical as it would be the first time a people’s initiative passed same sex marriage.
Internet cutting out? Are you sure you aren’t love blogging from Italy?
CNN is playing it very conservative tonight – they didn’t call Mississippi or Alabama. So, I’m not suprised they didn’t call Pennsylvania for Obama. I don’t think we can take it as a positive for Romney.
Jeff- delayed reaction, but John King is a terrible presenter, monotone, too fast. We’re flipping channels, can’t quite find a feed that we like.
Yes, Sarah, and it’s almost jokey, when they they look at the numbers when you have 1 or 5 % of the vote reported…how stupid is that?
I am fairly sure Obama is going to carry FL looking at county by county. He is up by 150k currently and is likely to pick up another 40k in Miami-Dade, 90k in Broward, 40k in Palm Beech, giving him 320k lead in total which will be very difficult for Romney to overcome with likely less than 1 million votes left to count outside those 3 counties.
If tickets aren’t splitting by state….is that a problem for the Dems moving west in the Senate?
I’m not as confident as you – Romney is doing what he needs to do to keep this race at 50%.
NOt sure I follow you Tarsi…
Sorry, I’m rethinking that question….pause*
Matt – I’d like some historical context. Watching the many commentators on NBC, Fox, PBS, the comments appear vacuous. What did this sort of real time analysis look like 10 or 20 years ago? How have cable and the internet changed this ritual of waiting for election results?
FL will be within 50k.. 7 million votes in still tied (8.2 million in 2008). Obama still has 100k+ that he will gain in Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beech.
Also some votes left to count in Democratic leaning Volusia and Orange counties.
There will be 500k votes or left to count outside those counties, with Obama leading by 100k+.
It will be very close, but still think Obama eeks out by 0-50k.
If FL is that close, that bodes well for obama elsewhere.
Sarah – the most visible impact is that our students are feeding me vote returns, often in real time. this is a far cry from the days when we watched Uncle Walter feed us the news. The second big development is that the mapping graphics really allow us to see where the vote is coming in, which makes it much easier to forecast what’s happening with the aggregate vote.
Andrew – Florida is supposed to be close – most polls put it as a dead heat. So I wouldn’t read this as anything but reconfirmation that the popular vote, nationally, is going to be really close. And Romney did really well in the early vote there.
Did I miss New Hampshire for Obama?
Obama up by 42k now in FL, still 200k+ votes in Miami-Dade, and 100k in Palm Beech to count.
Also some left in Orange and Vilusia.
Agree that things are going close to expectation – which is good for Obama.
In case you’re not there (and why wouldn’t you be? only Jeff Cason has a good excuse) here are some pics of our stage stars working it:
http://www.flickr.com/photos/brettsimisonphotography/sets/72157631949076847/
So there are demographics now…but in terms of bigger tent…for future years, what does it say about the future elections…? If growing demographics are growing? 2016?
County math in OH looks good for Obama too. I get Obama +300k with 1 million left to go after adding in the remaining large Obama strongholds. Obama would probably end up with a ~100k margin (1.7%).
Common theme on NBC and ABC. David Plouffe is the new moneyball guy. FL GOP insiders impressed with Obama ground game.
Fred – You did!
Andrew – I don’t think Florida gets called tonight – too many provisional ballots. And Romney likely won’t conceded until tomorrow.
Tarsi – Great question. One thing I’ve learned is not to make projections in the giddy aftermath of an election victory. I saw the same thing in 2008 – a Democratic realignment. Two years later Republicans were in charge of the House.
Karl Rove disagrees with you Andrew….
I’m more impressed with the political science forecast models….
YES on 1 passed in Maine according to their campaign. HUGE deal here in Maine.
I don’t think Tarsi is saying Dems will be in power forever.
But 2016 demographics are impossible for the *current* GOP.
Adam – Again, you think so now, but the same argument was made in 2008 – Republicans were the party of the white, senior, rural voters. That declaration proved premature…
So the networks are calling it – with a personal….we’re not sure?
The electoral count looks good for Obama…
The demographics today are not so different from 2010 when the GOP won in a landslide. The Dems barely squeeked out a win for President and Senate, and the GOP still won the House. I do think an improving economy the next 4 years and the demographics favor the Dems.
FL and OH are over.
The only significant Romney votes left in FL are in Brevard, Lee, and Seminole. Obama should receive a near equal number from Miami-Dade, and is currently up by 50k. It should end up 0-60k for Obama, most likely ~30k. Maybe it will come down to counting provisional ballots.
OH is more certain. Currently up 23k. Obama should pick up 40k more from Cuyahoga. Another 40k from Lucas. 20k from Summit and Trumbull. That’s a 120k lead with 300-500k votes remaining to count. I was a little surprised the networks called it so early but I still think Obama wins it by around 100k.
Big difference between Prez elections and low-turnout midterms which attract hard-core older voters.
Adam – That’s true, but the point is that low turnout election put the Republicans in charge of the House, and they are still in the majority there. No one saw this in 2008.
My sixth sense told me that Obama is going to win by a large margin and my favorite singer will give birth to a boy. Both are realized today LOL.