My post today examining the State of the Race is up at the Economist’s Democracy in America website, but I will try to amplify my remarks in a post at this site later today. In particular, I’ll try to reconcile the state-level polling which suggests Obama retains a slight Electoral College lead with the national polls that indicate Romney has been gaining ground.
Meanwhile, Bert Johnson and I have our last pre-election “Professor Pundits” taping up as well.
Also, if you are in the Middlebury area, I’ll be giving my Election Forecast on Monday, Oct. 29th, at 7 p.m. (Details here.)
More at this site later today…..
Matt,
I have long believed that Romeny would win, but like many people, I’ve had my doubts during the campaign.
Michael Barone is the editor of The Almanac of American Politics. About 15 months ago, he wrote that Obama would top out at 200 electoral votes. Earlier this year he presented various scenarios ranging from dead even to a replay of 1980. He gave “dead-even” a 50% likelihood. He has been very reserved in his comments.
It was interesting, therefore, to seen him on Sean hannity http://pjmedia.com/eddriscoll/2012/10/26/barone-predicts-romney-winner/. At the end of the interview, Hannity asks him who will will. Without hesitation, he says Romney. The University of Colorado model has a 330-220 Romney win.
Matt,
Is it possible to see your forecast talk online anywhere?
Ariel,
Last night’s talk was postponed. I am going to try to reschedule it before Tuesday, but my schedule is tight. If I can, I’ll try to get it recorded, or live streamed, and let everyone know.
Thanks. Good luck with the storm.