Monthly Archives: February 2012

Looking Back to Nevada, Ahead to Tomorrow, and Why the Patriots Lost

In a process that lasted longer than the Super Bowl pregame festivities, the Nevada Republican Party finally concluded vote counting and and posted the final caucus results. As expected, Romney gained a slight boost, to 50%, when the final Clark County results were totaled, but this changed nothing substantively except to bring his vote total exactly in line with my pre-caucus predictions. Gingrich remains second with 21% to Paul 19%, and Santorum finishes dead last at 10%. The end of vote counting also meant that the final turnout figures were established, and they were even worse than expected, with only 32,930 caucus participants, far less than the 44,000 from four years ago. Once again, Romney victory was tainted by underwhelming turnout.

Interestingly, despite his last place finish, Rick Santorum is enjoying something of a comeback in the estimation of some pundits by virtue of expectations that he will do well tomorrow in Missouri’s non-binding primary, and in Colorado’s and Minnesota’s caucuses. A PublicPolicyPolling (PPP) poll has Santorum neck-and-neck with Romney in Minnesota, and only 8% behind Romney in Colorado. In Missouri, at least one poll Santorum in the lead. (Keep in mind, however, that Gingrich is not on the ballot there.) Santorum is hoping that a strong performance in all three contests will vault him ahead of Gingrich into the “not-Mitt” alternative slot.

It’s possible, I suppose, but I’m not yet persuaded that Rick is the new Newt. He will likely best Newt in both caucuses tomorrow, but I don’t think the margins will be large enough to suggest that the end is near for Newt, who is banking on remaining in the race until SuperTuesday, when he expects to do well across the southern tier of states.

Of greater interest to me is the fate of Ron Paul’s campaign. He was banking on rolling up delegates in the caucus states, but he had a lackluster showing in Nevada, and so far he is not polling well in either Colorado or Minnesota. He may finish a distant second to Mitt in Maine, which concludes its caucus voting next Saturday. Unlike with Gingrich, there’s no obvious place where Paul is going to threaten to win outright, at least in the immediate future.

I’ll be on tomorrow with a preview of the caucus races. Meanwhile, I’ll leave you with this incisive analysis by Giselle Bunchden regarding why the Patriots lost yesterday:

“You (have) to catch the ball when you’re supposed to catch the ball,” she snapped back, according to CBS New York. “My husband cannot (bleeping) throw the ball and catch the ball at the same time. I can’t believe they dropped the ball so many times.”

There’s really nothing to add to that.

ADDENDUM: Apparently the full post did not show for some time tonight – my apologies. I blame the wonders of the internets.

What Happens In Vegas…Assessing Mitt’s Win (And My SuperBowl Pick)

Football coach Bill Parcells was famous for responding, when asked to assess his team’s record, “It is what it is.” His point, of course, is that a team’s success is, in the end, based solely on its wins and losses. Everything else that the sports pundits spend time analyzing is secondary.

Using the Parcell’s standard, last night was a very good night for Mitt Romney. Based solely on the (as yet incomplete) returns, it looks like Mitt will win at least 48% of the Nevada caucus vote. My guess is that percentage will go a bit higher as the remaining returns from Clark County come in (Mitt did very well in that county four years ago.) Assuming Mitt comes close to 50%, he will have more than doubled the vote of the second place finisher New Gingrich, who right now has about 23% of the vote. Indeed, Mitt would best the totals of Gingrich and Rick Santorum, his conservative rivals, combined. Exit polls show, moreover, that Mitt beat Newt among conservatives, Tea Party supporters, all income groups – it was an across the board victory. With the second decisive win in a row, Mitt sits comfortably in the driver’s seat of this nomination process.

And yet.

And yet I don’t think Mitt’s victory does much to remove the doubts of those who believe he is a weak candidate. To begin, it appears as if overall turnout in Nevada was down from 2008, when 44,000 Republicans caucused. (There are approximately 400,000 registered Republicans in Nevada.) If so, it will be the second contest in a row where Mitt’s victory was associated with a drop in voter turnout. It’s hard to know what to make of this enthusiasm gap, but I don’t think it bodes well for the Mittster as we look down the road. Compare that to the Democratic turnout in 2008, when more than 100,000 voters caucused in Nevada to give Hillary Clinton a resounding victory over Barack Obama.

And while it is true that Mitt seems to have expanded his coalition to include a majority of Nevada’s Tea Party and conservative voters – two groups that he has had trouble winning in previous events – as I noted last night it is hard to tell how much of that support came from Mormons who self-identify as conservatives and who support the Tea Party movement. Looking at the crosstabs of the PPP poll from last week, for instance, fully 80% of Nevada Mormons described themselves as conservative. It is no surprise, then, that Mitt did well with conservatives in Nevada, but it does not mean he will win that group in states with a smaller Mormon population.

My point here is that the fundamental demographics indicated that Mitt should do well in Nevada, just as they suggested he should win New Hampshire and Florida. But nothing I saw last night changes my belief that Mitt, as yet, has not excited the Republican base. In the end, turnout was down from 2008, and he likely received a smaller percentage of the vote (or at least did not increases his share) from a year when he failed to win the Republican nomination.

Of course, we should not lose sight of Parcell’s dictum. Mitt is in line, pending results down the road, to pick up another 12 or so delegates in Nevada. That would give Mitt about 79 pledged delegates so far, compared to 29 for Newt who is in second place. There’s still a long way to go – Mitt needs to pick up another 1,054 or so delegates to clinch the nomination – but any candidate would rather be in Mitt’s position than in Newt’s at this stage. By all measures, then, Mitt is winning this race, and he should increase that delegate lead after the caucuses in Minnesota and Colorado on Tuesday, and Maine next Saturday. And that’s the bottom line.

Of perhaps greater interest on this, Superbowl Sunday, is that my Nevada prediction is looking positively uncanny, with the slight exception of understating Santorum’s support. I wish I could attribute that to my use of a science-based prediction model. Alas, it was based mostly on intuition, experience and not a little bit of luck. Nonetheless, I know my success makes many of you eager to know my Super Bowl prediction, particularly after I nailed the score of the last Patriots game almost exactly.

Here’s the problem. As a dyed-in-the-wool Patriots fan, I can’t bring myself to state my prediction. It is too painful to actually write the words. I trust you understand what I’m trying to say here. Some thoughts are better left unspoken.

So instead, let me conclude with this advice – Go Patriots! – and some happy memories:

No matter what happens today, no one can take that memory away.

Live Coverage of the Nevada Caucus

6:00 Ok, we are moving to a new post to pick up the television coverage. Please join in. This may be a short night, but there are some interesting subplots playing.

Reading the tealeaves of the entrance poll results, this does not, as yet, appear that Mitt has shown he is expanding his coalition. So far it’s looking like a reprise of 2008. Not that the media will see this.

In looking at the entrance polls, the percentage of independents is almost identical to 2008, and the number of 18-29 age voters is down from 2008. Not necessarily good news for Ron Paul. Check that, independents were 12% of the vote in 2008, so the 6% increase actually bodes well for Paul. So I look for him to build on the 14% he won in 2008. He won 48% of independents.

Big difference from 2008? Only 7% of caucus goers cited electability as the most important candidate quality then – this time, 44% said it was “beating Obama”! Big turnabout, and one that will work in Romney’s favor.

Interestingly, among the 42% that are strong supporters of the Tea Party, Romney beats Gingrich, 40-31%. That’s the first time I’ve seen Romney win among strong Tea Party supporters. So maybe he is making some inroads among this group. But how many are Mormon?

Another big difference – in 2008, only 43% of participants made their decision before January. this year, a whopping 57% did. That is, more than half of the participants had their minds made up before any voting took place in the nominating process at all! Romney won big among that group, so lots of built-in Romney support this time around.

Guess what – Romney does worse among Mormons this time around – “only” 91%. He won 95% in 2008. Keep in mind that entrance polls are rather fuzzy indicators of the actual vote. Note sure there’s any real difference between 91% and 95%.

The poor people on CNN are trying desperately to hype tonight’s coverage, but the reality is that there not much to hype. About the only uncertainty is who will finish second, and whether I hit the proportions right on the nose.

One other issue: is turnout up? Remember, Mitt’s victory in Florida came with depressed turnout. Early signals tonight suggest turnout isn’t up, and may be down.

Once again, Mitt’s support increases in linear fashion as we go up the income scale. In fact, he loses the 10% who earn less than $30,000 to Paul(by 1%) and ties with Gingrich. No wonder he’s not concerned with the poor! Note that he won the poorest vote easily in 2008. Indeed, in 2008, there was much less income skew in Mitt’s vote. Not this year – his support tracks income quite closely.

In thinking about Mitt’s support among the Tea Party – without access to cross-tabs, I can’t be sure how many Tea Party voters are also Mormons. So I would hesitate based on tonight’s results to conclude that Mitt is making inroads among the non-Mormon Tea Party voters.

Still no turnout figures, but so far there’s no sign that turnout is up over 2008. Remember that in 2008 turnout was about 44,000.

Gergen and and the other commentators on CNN are missing the key point here -we don’t know how many Tea Party votes and conservative votes are coming from Mormons. Without knowing that, we need to resist saying that Romney expanded his support among the Tea Party or conservatives.

Will Mitt win more than the 22,246 votes he won in 2008?

CNN results should be coming up at 8.

And there they are! Don’t look know, but my prediction is almost exactly correct …. based on about 5% return! Alas, these proportions will change as the vote from the more urban and southern areas come in and begin to boost Mitt a bit.

Gergen and Will Cain are missing the point here in their discussion of Nevada’s Tea Party and conservative report. Doesn’t someone have a line to them? Quick – somebody tell them that Mormon and Tea Party and conservative aren’t mutually exclusive groups!

My point here is that the entrance polls don’t give us cross-tabs. But if you look at previous polls that do have crosstabs, you can see where the CNN commentators are going wrong. For instance, the PPP poll from last week shows that 80% of Mormons consider themselves somewhat or very conservative. So if Mitt wins 91% of the Mormon vote, he’s going to win a big chunk of conservatives as well. Similarly, 13% of Tea Party supporters are Mormons, compared to 20% of overall voters as Mormon, in that same PPP poll. Again, if you win 91% of Mormons, you are going to win some Tea party voters as well (assuming the polling results hold up.)

Additional PPP data: 20% of Mormons support the Tea party. I hope I’ve made my point.

Looks like the votes are going to trickle in here. It may be a lot longer night than I anticipated. Doesn’t feel like I’ve earned a scotch as yet.

8:47 It’s early – only 8% of the vote in – but Mitt is only at 45%. I have to think that will go up as results from southern Nevada come in, but if he can’t match 2008 total, and turnout is lower, this will be a bad night for Mitt. Wonder how much the “I don’t care for the poor” comments hurt him? Keep in mind – only Mitt and Paul spent any money in this state. Newt and Rick decided to save their cash and spent very little, if anything, on television advertising in Nevada.

By the way, Newt has a press conference scheduled for 8 pacific time. The twitterverse were speculating he was going to drop out. Highly unlikely. My guess is he’s going to reiterate that he’s in this to stay, and he may have a funding announcement as well. In any case, it’s clear to me that he’s going to use February to build up his war chest looking ahead to Feb. 28 and March 6 primaries. It makes no sense for him to drop out before the southern states vote on March 6. I still say Santorum is likely to call it quits first. Tuesday is really his only chance to win a state – he’s competing in Missouri’s no-binding primary on Tuesday, and Newt’s not on the ballot there. If Santorum can’t win there … .

Speaking of Rick, he’s on CNN speaking to a Colorado audience. Alas, he’s not polling well there either. Lots of twitter comments about his bolo tie with a button down shirt. I see the tie is gone..as his voice, almost. This has got to be a grueling process.

10 p.m. Surprise! CNN calls it for Mitt. But if he doesn’t pick it up, this is going to be a disappointing night for him. He has to at least match what he got in 2008, in a five candidate race. Right now he’s running behind, in a lower turnout affair.

It’s interesting to speculate regarding what Newt is going to say tonight. My guess is he’s trying to show how he wins the nomination. By laying out a feasible path, he’s trying to overcome the electability issue that so far has been playing in Romney’s favor. But the best way to demonstrate electability is to just win, baby. Of course, he may be trying to focus on raising money in the next several weeks, and tonight’s speech might be designed to appeal to those deep pockets.

Wolf Blitzer is on describing Mitt’s “dramatic” victory tonight. Are we looking at the same returns?

I don’t know what the holdup is on these returns – CNN has been on 10% returns for an hour now. I thought for sure they’d update in a flurry of returns as soon as the polls closed. How are they delivering returns out there – by passenger pigeon?

10:23 Finally, an update! And, wonders of wonders, with 13% of the vote in, my prediction suddenly looks uncanny! If only they would stop counting now….. Should I give my super bowl point spread as well? Bottom line: Mitt is at 47%, 3 under my projection, while Santorum is at 12%, 4% above my guesstimate. But looks like I nailed Newt and Ron.

Somebody needs to take Will Cain off the CNN stage – he’s just making stuff up. I can’t take anymore without a scotch. I think I’ve earned it.

Keep in mind that the special “Adelson Center” precinct has yet to vote. If Gingrich doesn’t win this….!

As always happen when you finish last, the pundits begin touting what a nice guy you are, and how you’ve grown, and stayed out of the gutter, etc. That’s Santorum’s fate tonight – Borger and Gergen are now heaping praise on the person who finished last. What did Leo Durocher say? (Do any of you know who Leo Durocher is?)

Mitt is on, and he’s wearing the jacket. Looks spiffy! I expect him to spend the night blasting Obama. Remember, Nevada could be a key battleground state in 2012.

I wonder if that person out of work for three years was a “poor” person?

What is it with this reference to Obama’s friends in “the faculty lounge”? Richard? Jeff? What did we do wrong? Heck, I don’t even have a faculty lounge, unless you count the third floor men’s room in Munroe… .

Rousing general election speech, touching on all the major themes – if he wins the nomination! Tonight is not helping his cause, although it’s not clear to me the media will understand this.

15% of the vote in, and Paul closes on Newt. None of the networks have called the second place, as yet, have they?

Meanwhile, Newt is coming on – he’s at least prompted some media interest. Which may be the point of holding this right after Mitt’s victory speech. I have to think his goal is to make a credible case that he can win this nomination, in the hope of making sure the money tree doesn’t die.

In looking at the CNN map, we are still waiting on returns from major urban areas, including the Las Vegas area in Clark county. Mitt may pick up some support there. He has to hope so, since so far this hasn’t been a great night for him as yet.

Fascinating slice of the caucus process on view on CNN right now as they show some of the speeches at the “Adelson event”. Ron Paul supporters are out in force – you get the full flavor of who they are, with some riffing on the dangers of vaccinations, and others talking about monetary policy, and other spouting the straight libertarian line.

Not surprisingly, Gingrich is running 15 minutes late for his important speech. This is the story of his campaign so far – lack of organization. He’ll be late to his own funeral.

The Paulistas are out in force, but CNN is cutting to Newt. Let’s listen in…

Metaphor of the Night: “I’d turn the safety net into a trampoline….”

You say Nevada, I say Nevada…..

As expected, Newt is playing the electability card. He’s not withdrawing. He’s doing better than McCain did in 2008 in Nevada. His plan is to gain “parity” by Texas in terms of delegates. That’s unlikely, but if he is in the race and wins Texas, that will mean he’s viable.

Gingrich, not surprisingly, offers to debate Romney any time, any place.

Whoa – CNN suddenly updates their results – with 41% of the vote in, Romney drops to 44% of the vote, and Gingrich solidifies his hold on second. Not a good night for Mitt as yet… .

Lander and Clark counties are the holdouts in Nevada. Mitt did well in Clark County in 2008, with over 50% of the vote, but in Lander he only pulled about 35% of the vote. Not looking good for Mitt….

Turnout looks down from 2008 based on current results. Gingrich is claiming that in Florida he did well in areas when turnout was up, but Romney won in areas where turnout was down. Is that true, and does that hold up in Nevada?

CNN commentators savaging Newt’s press conference… .

BTW, CNN is guesstimating that Mitt takes 10 delegates, with Newt and Ron winning 3 a piece. Another brick in the wall…. .

Ok, it’s almost the witching hour, and we don’t even have 50% of the vote reported as yet. I’m not going to wait on the remaining votes much longer. If we don’t see anything more soon, I’m going to call it a night.

Entrance polls have Mitt doing very well in Clark County, winning over 60% of the vote there. I have to think his vote percentage will go up when the Clark votes come in. If it ever comes in.

Ok, we have an update on Lander County – with about 44% of the vote in, Mitt is pulling over 50% there. But Clark County is stuck at 3% reporting. I have to think that when it comes in Mitt will get a boost in his final vote proportion. Given the late hour, however, I’m not going to wait up to see how it turns out.

I’ll be on tomorrow to assess both the actual results, and how the media spins it. Right now, however, I have to think the lead story is that in a smaller field, the purported front runner did worse than he did in 2008, when he didn’t come close to winning the nomination. If Mitt’s goal was to demonstrate that he is the inevitable nominee, tonight didn’t do much to convince me.

As always, thanks to everyone for participating and….

Go Patriots!

See you tomorrow…. .Remember, if Clark County comes out strong for Mitt, he still may reach my projection for him and match his 2008 totals.

Leading Las Vegas! (Nevada Predictions, and What To Expect)

It’s caucus day in Nevada, and Mitt Romney – according to polls – is poised for an easy victory. It is true that because of the low number of participants (about 44,000 in the 2008 Nevada GOP caucus), it is much more difficult to poll a caucus state than it is a primary; pollsters need to work much harder to locate potential caucus voters. In 2008, no poll came within 20% of Romney’s final total, if I recall correctly. So we should be somewhat skeptical that the final results will perfectly match the latest polling figures. Nonetheless, based on Romney’s performance in Nevada in 2008, the state’s demographics, and the size of his polling lead, I don’t think I’m going out on a limb when I say Mitt should win easily today.

Nonetheless, there are a number of interesting subplots that I’ll be following. Most importantly, of course, this is a nomination race that will be won by accumulating delegates. All three of Romney’s rivals – Gingrich, Paul, and Santorum – are showing no indications that they are going to leave the race any time soon. Although no delegates are directly awarded based on today’s caucus results – it’s only the first of a three-step process – the results do generally provide an indication of the eventual delegate allocation for the state. With that in mind, all four candidates are hoping to mobilize their base and win a chunk of delegates. Here’s what to expect.

Mitt will win this, barring a major upset. The question is by how much? Ideally, he wants to win big – preferably with more than 50% of the vote – to drive the media toward the inevitability narrative. He also wants turnout to be up to reverse the perception that his wins haven’t been characterized by the high turnout that one associates with enthusiastic supporters. He’s counting on a strong turnout among the state’s Mormon population to reverse that perception. One question is whether his “I’m not focused on the poor” remarks will hurt him in a state where unemployment is over 12%.

Gingrich has been running most strongly among the Tea Party faction, but – at about 30% of likely voters – they are not quite as large in the more moderate Nevada as they have been in other states, and Sharron Angle, the Tea Party favorite in the 2010 Senate race, has already come out in favor of Santorum. (In 2008, entrance polls indicated 24% of caucus participants characterized themselves as evangelical, and 40% as conservative.) But so far the Tea Party has shown little inclination to back Mitt in broad numbers. Will that change in Nevada? Or will they unite behind Newt as the “non-Mitt”? And can they recapture the energy that drove the movement in 2010? Gingrich has been very slow to get an organization going in Nevada, and it is unclear how much that will hurt him today.

Santorum has been appealing to social conservatives, but the main issues in Nevada are the economy, with unemployment over 12%, and the housing collapse – Nevada is among the leaders in home foreclosures. Can Santorum broaden his appeal to include the economic populists who may be looking for an alternative to Romney? He has been working hard to cut into Gingrich’s support by trying to portray Newt as the “moon man” with the grandiose ideas. That didn’t work in Florida, but it may play better here.

This is Ron Paul’s second time around in Nevada. In 2008 he finished a distant second to Romney, with 14% of the vote, so he knows the lay of the electoral land. Can he get his committed Paulistas to come out on his behalf? Note that he is banking big on picking up chunks of delegates in the caucuses in Nevada, Maine (which also begins voting today), Colorado and Minnesota. In contrast to Gingrich and Santorum, he is better organized to do so.

As I noted in my previous post, there are (eventually) 28 nonbound delegates at stake. Most of the state’s caucuses will be held starting from 3-6 Eastern Time and continuing until the voting. Although one of the bigger caucuses in Clark County may run much later, I expect early results to be announced by 8 p.m. tonight, Eastern Time. I’m not sure how the networks are covering this, but I’ll be on later with updates as warranted.

It is rather pointless to make a prediction of the popular vote in a caucus state, but since you’ve come to expect it (and since I’ve been on something of a roll in my predictions), here goes:

Romney 50%

Gingrich 24%

Paul 19%

Santorum 6%

As always, no wagering at home. Remember, I’m a professional. I’ll be back on shortly before 8 p.m. In the meantime, here’s some vintage Elvis to keep you occupied:

CORRECTION: An earlier version of this post said Sharron Angle endorsed Romney – as Jason points out, that was incorrect. She’s endorsed Santorum. I’ve made the correction in the text.

2:16 UPDATE. Early caucus results are trickling in via Tweeter posts. My back of the envelope addition has the return pretty close to what I predicted so far – Mitt getting 50%, with Newt slightly besting Paul for second and Rick trailing far behind.

4:01 UPDATE. Just eyeballing precinct results (and keep in mind there’s more than 1800 precincts that have to report) it looks like Romney is cleaning up and is on pace to break 50%. Of course, this is all preliminary. Second place looks to be a battle between Paul and Gingrich. Again, nothing official will be reported until 8 p.m. eastern time, and a few precincts won’t even have reported by then.

5 p.m. UPDATE. It’s fascinating to keep track of the twitterverse musings re: Nevada – there’s a distinct anti-Newt bias among the top tweeters who appear to be pushing a Paul second-place finish. It makes it hard to know who is trying to push results by reporting precinct results. Although it appears Gingrich is ahead, the claim is that Paul will gain as the rural precincts begin reporting. I confess that I have no idea.

5:12 Newt has scheduled a late night press conference (by eastern time – it’s 8 p.m. pacific), and already the twitterverse is alive with rumors that he’s withdrawing. Doubtful. Very very doubtful.

5:30 Gingrich supporters are tweeting furiously to remind everyone that many precincts are remaining open to allow Jewish voters observing the Sabbath to vote.

5:40 The entrance polls apparently are showing about 26% Mormon turnout – not much different from 2008, as I recall. And it does not appear turnout is up over 2008 either.

5:50 – The ratio of Mormons to evangelicals is almost exactly the same this year as it was in 2008. This tells me Mitt is likely to reprise his 2008 performance, but not much more.

I’ll be switching to a new post at 6 when The Cable begins live coverage. As always, you are invited to join in.

High Stakes in Nevada: Can The Newt “Trump” The Mitt?

The next stop in the Republican road show is Nevada, which holds its caucus this Saturday. In 2008, Mitt Romney won this state easily, with 51% of the vote, in large part because of strong organization and turnout by the state’s substantial Mormon population (about 7% of the population). Based on entrance polls, fully 25% of those participating in the 2008 Republican caucus were Mormons, and 94% of them supported Romney. Barring a major gaffe, there’s no reason to believe he won’t reprise his 2008 victory on Saturday. Of greater interest, perhaps, is whether Ron Paul, who is counting on doing well in caucus states, can beat Newt Gingrich for second place. Paul finished second in Nevada in 2008, at 14%, barely edging McCain.

Although caucus states are notoriously difficult to poll, PublicPolicyPolling (PPP’s) one-day poll indicates that Romney is up by 20% over Gingrich, with Paul in third. However, media reports indicate that The Donald – hotel magnate Donald Trump – is set to make a “major announcement at noon” today. Rumors are that he will endorse The Newt who, you may recall, was one of the only Republicans who bothered to travel to Trump Towers last year to genuflect before The Donald, and who also had agreed to participate in The Donald’s debate when most of the other Republicans opted not to. It appears that Newt’s diligence in courting The Donald may now pay off. Although I have to say I’m not convinced these media leaks are accurate; it’s not like The Donald to back a loser. He’s a front-runner through and through, so it would make more sense for him to endorse The Mitt.

Assuming the media reports are true, however, this sets up an interesting dynamic. The Mitt likes to fire people. The Donald has constructed an entire television program based on this premise. Who has more “fire”-power? Alas for The Newt, I think The Mitt’s organizational advantage is going to trump The Donald’s endorsement. Barring a major Romney gaffe, he should win Nevada.

Keep in mind that the ultimate prize here are Nevada’s 28 delegates. Moreover, this is a closed caucus; only registered Republicans can participate. The delegates are apportioned as follows: 10 are awarded to whoever wins the state, and an additional 12 are divided up based on the winners of the four congressional districts, three are reserved for the party, and there are three “bonus” delegates. Candidates must clear a 3.57% vote threshold to be eligible for delegates. Note also that Saturday’s caucus is merely the first step in a three-step process to determine who gets the delegates so, although it will be possible to estimate the delegate allocation based on the first step voting on Saturday, the process will not be finalized until the county and then state-level voting takes place.

Nevada is the first in a succession of caucuses stretched out through the month of February that will test the candidates’ organizational skills and resources. Colorado will hold its caucus on Tuesday. Minnesota also has a caucus on Tuesday, but its results are non-binding. Missouri will hold a non-binding primary on Tuesday. Although the results are non-binding, Rick Santorum is banking heavily on a strong performance there, particularly since Newt is not on the ballot. Maine, meanwhile, will be organizing a series of local caucuses throughout the period of February 4-11. These caucuses will include non-binding presidential straw polls whose results will be announced on February 11. Ron Paul has already been campaigning in Maine.

We will try to keep you abreast of these results as they come in, beginning with Saturday’s caucus in the Silver State. In a clash of financial titans, it’s The Donald vs. The Mitt. Who has better hair? Ok, never mind. Who gets to say, “You’re fired”? My money’s on The Mitt.

UPDATE: 11:20 a.m. Dueling news leaks: ABC News is reporting that in fact The Donaldis going to endorse The Mitt. Frankly, this makes more sense to me – I can’t see The Donald willing to tarnish his brand name by backing a second-place finisher. In any event, we should find out soon – The Donald is set to make his announcement at noon. Not that it matters.

UPDATE II: It’s official. The Donald is in fact endorsing The Mitt, not The Newt. Not that it makes any difference at all. But, frankly, I’m relieved. It would have been so unlikeThe Donald not to endorse the front-runner. Although apparently he led The Newt on for a while, but in the end The Donald was true to his character.