I’m not sure what to make of this just released We Ask America poll, but I pass it along simply because it is the first poll conducted covering the last 24 hours. The most notable finding is that Santorum is now alone in second at 17%, with Paul (14%) now essentially bunched in a group that includes Gingrich (13%) and – surprise! – Bachmann (12%). Although pundits have declared her candidacy dead, here she is ahead of Perry (10%) and within striking distance (given the 7% undecided) of a top-three finish. All of which makes me somewhat skeptical that this poll is very accurate . Note that they don’t release any polling internals, except to say that they have surveyed “Republicans”. If it is only Republicans, and does not include independents or Democrats, it may be understating Paul’s support. In any case, without more information, I have no way to evaluate it. So, with that cautionary note, here are the topline results.
Candidate
Bachmann 12%
Gingrich 13%
Huntsman 4%
Paul 14%
Perry 10%
Romney 24%
Santorum 17%
Undecided 7%
At this point, I’m waiting on three last polls: the Des Moines Register, which will come out tomorrow night, and polls from ABC/WashingtonPost and CBS/NY Times.
It’s interesting how the media has been reporting these latest polling results. There’s been much talk that if Romney wins Iowa, and takes New Hampshire, he could close out this nomination race in a hurry. Perhaps, but keep this in mind. If Romney’s current polling numbers hold, he will win Iowa with the lowest winning total in this caucus – Republican or Democrat – since it began back in 1972. That, to me, doesn’t inspire much confidence in a Romney sweep, particularly as the field is winnowed and support begins to coalesce behind his opponents.
Here are the previous Iowa caucus winners and their vote percentages, as listed in Wikipedia (so I can’t vouch for the accuracy of these figures).
Democrats
- January 3, 2008 – Barack Obama (38%), John Edwards (30%), Hillary Clinton (29%), Bill Richardson (2%), Joe Biden (1%)
- January 19, 2004 – John Kerry (38%), John Edwards (32%), Howard Dean (18%), Dick Gephardt (11%), and Dennis Kucinich (1%)
- January 24, 2000 – Al Gore (63%) and Bill Bradley (37%)
- February 12, 1996 – Bill Clinton (unopposed)
- February 10, 1992 – Tom Harkin (76%), “Uncommitted” (12%), Paul Tsongas (4%), Bill Clinton (3%), Bob Kerrey (2%), and Jerry Brown (2%)
- February 8, 1988 – Dick Gephardt (31%), Paul Simon (27%), Michael Dukakis (22%), and Bruce Babbitt (6%)
- February 20, 1984 – Walter Mondale (49%), Gary Hart (17%), George McGovern (10%), Alan Cranston (7%), John Glenn (4%), Reubin Askew (3%), and Jesse Jackson (2%)
- January 21, 1980 – Jimmy Carter (59%) and Ted Kennedy (31%)
- January 19, 1976 – “Uncommitted” (37%), Jimmy Carter (28%) Birch Bayh (13%), Fred R. Harris (10%), Morris Udall (6%), Sargent Shriver (3%), and Henry M. Jackson (1%)
- January 24, 1972 – “Uncommitted” (36%)
Republicans
- 2008 – Mike Huckabee (34%), Mitt Romney (25%), Fred Thompson (13%), John McCain (13%), Ron Paul (10%), Rudy Giuliani (4%), and Duncan Hunter (1%)
- 2004 – George W. Bush (unopposed)
- 2000 – George W. Bush (41%), Steve Forbes (31%), Alan Keyes (14%), Gary Bauer (9%), John McCain (5%), and Orrin Hatch (1%)
- 1996 – Bob Dole (26%), Pat Buchanan (23%), Lamar Alexander (18%), Steve Forbes (10%), Phil Gramm (9%), Alan Keyes (7%), Richard Lugar (4%), and Morry Taylor (1%)
- 1992 – George H. W. Bush (unopposed)
- 1988 – Bob Dole (37%), Pat Robertson (25%), George H. W. Bush (19%), Jack Kemp (11%), and Pierre DuPont (7%)
- 1984 – Ronald Reagan (unopposed)
- 1980 – George H. W. Bush (32%), Ronald Reagan (30%), Howard Baker (15%), John Connally (9%), Phil Crane (7%), John B. Anderson (4%), and Bob Dole (2%)
Bob Dole, in 1996, is perhaps the closest parallel to Romney today – and we all know how that turned out! Although he did win the nomination, he didn’t do so well in the general election.
Addendum (5:28 p.m.): It appears that PPP will run one more survey beginning Sunday into Monday. Meanwhile, I’m not certain that either WaPo/ABC or CBS/NYTimes are going to field one more Iowa survey. So at this point I know there’s at least two more polls coming out before Tuesday.