So much so that I’m having trouble believing them. We now have another full day’s worth of polls, most of which were in the field at least partly during Obama’s visit, and – keeping in mind all the caveats I mentioned about polling a special election – they indicate that Scott Brown is poised to win this race. If so, it will be the biggest political upset of my lifetime.
First, let’s summarize today’s polls, including two that came since my last posting. The first is by Insider Advantage, and it has Brown up by 9%, 52%-43%, with Kennedy taking about 2% and no opinion polling 3%. The second is by ARG, and it has Brown up by 7%, 52%-45%. Four days ago ARG only had Brown up by 3%, 48%-45%, so Brown has picked up 4% in the last three days by this poll. Five of the last six polls now have Brown above 50%, with the only exception coming from the Daily Kos poll.
In parsing the details of these polls, there are some rather extraordinary results. Let me start with the InsiderAdvantage poll. In it, Brown is winning in all age groups except those over 65, with his biggest margin coming in the youngest, 18-29 year old cohort. He’s winning almost 25% of Democrats, and he’s beating Coakley among women (53% of the sample) by 49.5%-46.1% and is clobbering her among independents (37% of the sample) 68.7%-28.5%. Indeed, some of the results I find difficult to swallow, although in Insider’s defense, results for smaller subsamples can often be all over the map. Nonetheless, Insider would have one believe that Brown is winning 27% of the black vote and 77% of the Hispanic vote. I suppose it’s possible.
The ARG telephone poll of likely voters was in the field from Friday through Sunday and also has Brown dominating among independents 64%-32%, and winning 23% of Democrats. However, it shows Coakley with a slim lead among women, 50%-46%. Once again, Brown gets strong support with younger voters, leading 53%-43% among those under 50 and by a smaller 51%-46% advantage among those over 49 years old.
Both the InsiderAdvantage and ARG polls were, at least in part, in the field yesterday, and presumably should have picked up any surge toward Coakley inspired by Obama’s visit. All told there have been five polls that were at least partially in the field yesterday, and two that exclusively polled on the day of Obama’s visit. None show evidence of any surge toward Coakley – indeed, reaction has been in the opposite direction, toward Brown. I am not going to say that this reflects opposition to Obama, since these polls include days before Obama’s visit and even for Sunday’s polls the timing is in question. But clearly his visit hasn’t – yet – had the impact for which Coakley hoped.
So what are we left with? One can still construct an argument for Coakley winning this race, and indeed you can find that argument on other websites. It usually is based on a combination of extraordinary turnout by Democrats tomorrow combined with a response bias in the polling that leads them to collectively underestimate support for Coakley. For what it’s worth, I’ve made the argument that the response bias may work in the other direction, in Brown’s favor. Note that the InsideAdvantage poll was still another one using automated polling that gave Brown a larger than expected lead.
Let us assume for the moment that the survey data is correct, and that Brown is poised to pull off the biggest political upset in recent memory. The question becomes: why?
I’ve been giving this a lot of thought and – not surprisingly to long time readers – I don’t think the standard explanation posited in most major news outlets that this is a reaction to some combination of opposition to health care and to Obama is correct. Instead, I want in my next post to offer a different explanation for why Brown is winning. But before I do, I want to give you a chance to chime in. I know this election has attracted extraordinary interest, because I’m getting more hits today than on any previous topic, save for Election Night 2008. But most of you are giving me your views through private emails, rather than through the comments section. This leaves everyone else out of the discussion. So go ahead – tell me what you are hearing, or seeing, or reading that might explain why Scott Brown is on the verge of pulling the greatest upset since the Red Sox came from three down to beat the Evil Empire.