I’m working on a longer post that tries to get a handle on what we might expect for turnout tomorrow and who that might help, but in the meantime one more poll came in so I thought I’d send it along.
At first glance, it looks like good news for Martha Coakley. The poll, which was sponsored by the Daily Kos, has her in a dead heat with Brown at 48%-48%. That’s the good news. The bad news is that the same pollster had Coakley up 49%-41% one week ago, so it is actually consistent with the trend toward Brown noted in my previous blog. Moreover, this uses live interviewers which may – may – mask voter sentiment for Brown. Ideally, given the house effects of this particular polling outfit, Coakley supporters really wanted to see movement in the other direction.
To anticipate my next post, both Orion and Alex wonder whether Coakley is going to benefit by the apparent nationalizing of this race, since it will send a wakeup call to Democrats that this long-time Kennedy seat is in danger of going red. One week ago I would have agreed with them that lower turnout favors Brown. Now, as I begin to gauge the depth of anger among independents, I’m not so sure. I hope to develop this point later this afternoon.
Meanwhile, news narratives are suggesting dueling frames for the Obama visit, with some accounts focusing on the strong turnout for his speech, and others contrasting it with the turnout for Brown’s counter rally headlined by – you guessed it – Curt Schilling. Crowd estimates are notoriously unreliable, so I’m not even going to begin to parse this debate. But it is a reminder that this late in the day, the media airwaves are saturated with ads, claims and counterclaims, which makes it difficult for any single event or message to dominate. It really is going to come down to turnout.
More in a bit.
Addendum: ARG just in with their final poll: Brown 52% Coakley 45%.
Matt, at first I didn’t take your comments on Schilling seriously, and I think you had your tongue in your cheek too. But the cable networks are full of the Schilling spin today…it has a life of its own. Oh well, we loose Bunting and gain Schilling. Phil Rizzuto used to say “I like politics…a lot of people make a lot of money in politics….”
Jack – the reason the Schilling comment was significant was not because it was likely turn people against her – it was because for a large part of the electorate it signified the sense that she thought this seat was hers by entitlement; that she didn’t need to work for it by meeting and greeting the common folk. There’s a wonderful Tip O’Neill story in this regard that I should tell if I get a chance, but the punch line is Tip’s longtime neighbor not voting for him. When Tip asked why this longtime family friend didn’t support him, she replied something to the effect that voters want to be asked for their vote.
Martha didn’t think she had to ask.