Live blogging tonight’s Town Hall debate

Tonight’s bets:

1. Does McCain bring up Ayers and/or Wright?

2. If he does, does Obama respond with the Keating Five?

3. Will McCain say “middle class”?  Will Obama say “victory in Iraq”?

9:00  Remember – “uncommitted” voters are not necessarily independent voters!  Many may in fact already be committed to one of the two candidates.

9:01 McCain just winked at me!

Pay attention to how the candidates move from the audience to the camera and back.

9:07 – Good opening question.  Both candidates should handle this easily.   Obama’s taking the easy route, jumping on the “golden parachute”.  Substantively meaningless, but a powerful symbol.

McCain – calls Alan by his name.  That’s a nice touch.  Notice how he bores in on the crowd.

McCain has to step up here.  And he is – this is a concrete policy proposals that viewers can understand.  Strong McCain answer.  And notice that he differentiates himself from both Obama and Bush!

Interesting question –  McCain scores again. He knows what e-bay is all about!  What old fogey?

(btw – where’s tonight’s focus group? )

9:13 – Doesn’t take Obama long to bring up the “fundamentals are sound” McCain quote.

9:15 Bailout question – gives McCain an opportunity to replay his campaign suspension…. and he does.

and now the first counterattack on Obama… this is a riff on the McCain ad linking Obama to Fannie/Freddie money.   How’s it playing when he goes on the attack.

9:18 – And now it’s Obama’s turn – it’s McCain’s fault.  My guess this exchange won’t move either side, and will leave independents still on the fence.  Nice line about “not interested in politicians pointing fingers”…

McCain’s response isn’t very detailed here beyond the plan to buy up bad mortgages.

9:22 – DId Obama just call the questioner  “cynical”?  Not smooth…

McCain should give the websites of the National Taxpayers Union and Citizen’s Against Waster.. that’d be a nice touch.

Does anyone even use overhead projectors anymore?

(Did you know that McCain has a “clear record”?)  And do you know how building nuclear plants will address entitlements (he missed a transition there).

9:29 – Just a reminder: uncommitted voters may in fact be committed to a candidate, but say they are susceptible to change.  Don’t be mislead…

9:33 – McCain uses sacrifice to attack earmarks and tout the across-the-board spending freeze.  How’s this playing?

Nice little riposte here on Obama’s “one at a time” approach.

9:35 – I guess Obama sees the handwriting on the wall for offshore drilling – that, I think, was an endorsement.   But a nice tactic more generally to tie sacrifice to the energy problem.  And a shout out to the young people – You betcha!

9:38  Very nice play here by Obama to both point out how little earmarks matter while linking McCain to tax-friendly policies to the wealthy.  Took him a while to get here, but this is nicely done.

9:39 –  McCain would be a bit more effective here if he was more specific on tax increases.

Never mind – I take it back.

John was ready for this one.

9:42  Ben Wessel picks up on the flag lapel (Obama’s wearing one, McCain’s not).

McCain has his jello line, but Obama is right back at ya with “wheels off the straight talk express”.

McCain should push back here on the dollar amount of taxes, not the percentage of income brackets getting them.    And Obama’s “solution” for entitlements leaves the door wide open.

But McCain’s no better on the specifics – hasn’t yet told us how to solve social security.  Nor for Medicare.

9:45.  Obama should bring Palin in here on the sources of global warming..

CLearly McCain has adopted the Reagan philosophy of praising American workers and maintaining an optimistic message.

Didn’t Al Gore invent the computer?

Uh oh, Obama is agreeing with McCain again…. ok, not really.

Amy – who is in the focus group? Do we know yet?

Drilling offshore is a winning issue, given the current energy climate.

Is John hogging Obama’s camera time?  What”s he doing in the background there?

10:55. Ok, health care is ripe for a good debate.

Watch Obama in the background here as McCain goes on the attack on Obama’s health care policy.

I don’t think many people in Tennessee are going to Arizone for health care, even if the plan is “better”!

A nice exchange here – substantive policy differences are actually getting aired.  This is what debates should accomplish, but rarely do.

Obama’s on a role….

10:03 – Ok, homework assignment.  Someone needs to get me the actual composition of the “uncommitted” Ohio group.

10:04 – McCain throws Obama’s words back at him (“Sen. Obama was wrong…).  McCain has to be ready to respond to Obama’s reprise of the first debate exchange on this issue.

This is an effective rejoinder by Obama here on foreign policy – notice how he links McCain back to Bush.

Actually, we did choose to standby while the Holocaust was going on….

10:08 – AGain, McCain just comes out better on these hypotheticals because he can draw on actual experiences, while – through no fault of his own – Obama simply can’t match that.  But will it change any minds?

10:12 – Katie – Great question!  When did Obama start pronouncing Pakistan with an upper-class accent?

Both Obama and McCain did about as good as they could with this question.

Ok, the “bomb, bomb, bomb” comment just doesn’t work anymore.  I’m not quite sure why Obama is going on at length here, unless his internal polls suggests McCain wins point here.  I just don’t think he wants to stay on this turf for too long.

10:22 –  One has to wonder in an election year dominated by economic issues, and with the majority of Americans, for the first time, indicating that they believe we are winning in Iraq, whether McCain (or Obama) can move any undecideds on foreign policy issues.

Ok, they agree on this one. Move on.  (Don’t you usually anticipate ahead of time?)  Obama’s slipping into platitudes here… energy is key, look around corners, be proactive, etc…

10:28 – Effective response by McCain on a nuclear Iran.

Not sure if Americans will see the link between reducing our consumption of gasoline and nuclear weapons in Iraq.  But the finish is stronger….

10:34.  Interesting question. I guess Obama is smart to ignore it and goes into the closing statement.  This is a set-piece close and he’s good at it.

Ok, dueling biographies.  McCain is reprising his convention speech here…. and he’s remembering the Tip O’Neil line: always ask for your vote!

Ok, fire away?  Did undecided in the battleground states move in either direction?

Notice Michelle working the crowd while Cindy follows John around?

NBC is currently ripping McCain on the economy, particularly McCain’s proposal to buy up home mortgages.  How’s it playing elsewhere?

On PBS, some complaints that Obama doesn’t make an “emotional connection” with viewers. On NBC, he is praised for “being cool, showing grace under pressure”.  This is why you can’t judge much by pundits.

Ok, some first impressions.  Notice not a single reference to Ayers, Wright or any personal attacks.  Both candidates stay on policy issues, with some tangential attacks on experience. But no personal character assassination.

SEcond, the McCain mortgage plan buyout is a huge policy initiative – it has to be incredibly costly – but no one seems to be paying attention.  Will the media pick up on this tomorrow?

(CBS is showing their “knowledge poll” of “uncommitted” voters which we know from previous experience is in fact not a panel of uncommitted voters, but of voters who say they may change their mind.)

Third, the impact of the “town hall” format was minimal- it wasn’t as freewheeling as some had hoped.

Fourth – we really miss Sarah Palin.  Wouldn’t you have rather seen her debate Obama?  I thought so…

Fifth – I’m guessing the audience for this debate was down significantly from the VP debate. Again, this helps Obama, doesn’t help McCain.  McCain’s really facing an uphill battle to overcome the continuing bad economic news – his best bet is to convince voters that he can address these issues. I just don’t think the media is very receptive to his mortgage housing plan.

Ok, I’m signing off. Remember my warnings: cast a critical eye on the post-debat analysis by pundits, focus groups and instant polls. Check the fine print before accepting the conclusions. It’s ok for the media to tell you who “won”, but if you are a faithful reader of this blog, you should be in a good position to scrutinize their claims.  Just because it leads the NYTimes or Washington Post doesn’t make it accurate.

Tomorrow I’ll try to get you up-to-date on the situation in the Electoral College.

Great comments tonight everyone, thanks again to everyone who participated.  We have one more to go – see you all next week!