Stevenson went 16-10 a year ago and returns three of their top four scorers from the 2012-13 team in Christian Roberts (6’0” sophomore, #1), Alfonozo Hawkins (6’0” senior, #5) and Stefon McCray (6’6” senior, #21) who combined to score 41.5 points per game a season ago. Bolstering the returners are transfers Justin Kuntz, who led the team with 14 points in their season-opening win over Cairn, and Colby Giacubeno, who contributed 12 points off the bench. Fifteen different players played—12 of whom logged at least 9 minutes—for the Mustangs in their opener, in large part because they led 49-18 over Cairn at halftime. The combination of the blowout victory and the high number of transfers makes Stevenson an especially difficult team to assess from the box score. They do, however, appear improved from a 16-win team a year ago, which won both of its games at the Hoopsville Classic, boasting wins over Alvernia and twice beat Lebanon Valley, their one common opponent with Middlebury last year.

Stevenson is likely an underrated team going into this tournament, with all the necessary motivation of winning on their home floor in what is as close to a nationally broadcasted D-III tournament as there is. James Jensen, who was cleared yesterday, should be available to play, giving Middlebury a versatile defender who could check the 6’6” Stefon McCray. On the offensive end of the floor, scoring inside will once again be a key for the Panthers as Stevenson boasts just one player (Kuntz) 6’7” or taller. Through three games this year, Matt Daley and Jack Roberts have been effective attacking smaller lineups—Daley, in particular, looking unguardable at times with a single defender working against him. Dylan Sinnickson, who has been one of the Panthers’ most effective outside scorers thus far, likely won’t be available this weekend, putting greater onus on Middlebury’s big men to produce inside. On the perimeter, the Panthers will have to do a far better job shooting the ball as Joey Kizel and Matt St. Amour have struggled to find their shooting range early in the season. The return of Jake Brown may create better spacing on the floor, allowing Kizel to play off the ball increasingly. Against an undersized Stevenson team, we might see a backcourt of Brown, Kizel and St. Amour for the first time this season.

Middlebury should escape this game with a victory, but Stevenson is a relatively veteran team that is playing at home against a team that has made long road trips on consecutive weekends. Given our expectations for Middlebury, we think they should pass another early season test tonight, but they will need to play a more complete game than they have against their past two opponents.

Matt Daley scored 24 points and grabbed 11 rebounds in Middlebury’s 81-71 win over Alvernia yesterday. A lot of credit should go to Jeff Brown for choosing the right starting lineup in this game, which seemed like an impossible task hours ago. Neither Jeff nor I had Matt St. Amour or Matt Daley in our first-game starting lineups, despite our excitement about their potential. If Daley doesn’t start against Alvernia, Middlebury very well could have lost the game. Daley scored 6 of Middlebury’s first 8 points and 10 of the team’s first 21 and the team stagnated offensively when he sat. And it wasn’t purely an offense thing either as Daley held his own on the defensive end, collecting 5 defensive rebounds and blocking a shot, while staying out of foul trouble. To further that sentiment, the sophomore forward boasted a +/- of +21 in a 10-point win and never left the game for the bench with the team in a worse place than when he entered the game. St. Amour, meanwhile, was not as effective, but finished with 10 points on 3-10 shooting in a solid debut as only the fifth freshman to start the opening game of the season during Jeff Brown’s tenure. And while St. Amour struggled at times, he was also a member of Middlebury’s most effective lineup, which included Kizel, St. Amour, Merryman, Daley and Roberts.

Part of the reason that lineup had as much success as it did was Alvernia’s inability to deal with Middlebury’s length inside. The same likely won’t be true of Barcuh, which boasts a bigger lineup that should better matchup with Middlebury’s size inside and do a better job keeping the Panthers off the glass. (Though for good measure, Franklin & Marshall held a +8 rebounding advantage over the Bearcats and collected 13 offensive rebounds in the game.) For Middlebury, there’s a relatively simple solution to this: make shots and finish inside. The Panthers grabbed 22 offensive rebounds against Alvernia, in large part because they shot just 43 percent as a team. If Middlebury can make more shots, particularly around the basket, where they missed a number of bunnies and putbacks, they shouldn’t have too much trouble with Baruch, which—if their scoring tendencies are any indicator—will likely try to slow down Middlebury’s tempo and limit turnovers and fastbreak opportunities to a minimum.

The Bearcats had pretty balanced in scoring in 2012, with no player averaging more than 10.4 points per game and return four of their top five scorers from a season ago. They also got an infusion of talent through the transfer window: Abraham Akanmu, a junior who played his first two seasons at Queens College, led the Bearcats with 13 points in the season opener; Joshua Gener, meanwhile, is a 6’7” forward/center who didn’t see game action for the Bearcats yesterday, but bolsters their front court rotation. In yesterday’s victory over Franklin & Marshall—only the Diplomats’ second home loss over the past three seasons—Baruch started a small backcourt of three guards (5’11”, 5’11”, 6’2”) and then a 6’6” forward in senior Joshua Vital (9.8 ppg, 6.6 rpg, 46% shooting in 2012-13) and 6’8” center Brian McMahon, a junior who averaged 5.8 points per game last season, who added 6 points and 4 blocks in a Jack Roberts type line. The two players to keep an eye on off the bench for the Bearcats are Matas Rascius, a 6’7” forward from Lithuania, who scored 9 points in just 13 minutes off the bench yesterday, and 5’9” senior Matt Feldman, who played starter minutes in a reserve role.

From the roster alone (and it’s always dangerous to assume too much from the roster alone) Baruch seems to have the size to contend with Middlebury’s bigs, and enough speed in the backcourt to make life difficult for Kizel and St. Amour in the backcourt. Jake Brown, who appears to be sitting out the tournament altogether, would be particularly helpful in this matchup. In his absence, Kizel and the trio of St. Amour, Pendergast and Bullcuk, in particular, will have to take care of the ball and not allow Baruch, a team that scored just 70.6 points per game last year on 43/33/73 splits to get easy looks off turnovers. Though unranked, Baruch should provide Middlebury with another good early season test, especially on the defensive end where they will likely harass the Panthers and apply more pressure than Alvernia did yesterday. If Middlebury executes and gets balanced play from their backcourt and bigs, the Panthers’ talent and depth should help them pull away from the Bearcats.

Friday, November 15: Middlebury (0-0) vs. Alvernia (0-0), 6 p.m. Webcast

The last time Middlebury lost before the New Year was in 2008, when the current freshmen were in middle school. The senior class is 24-0 in such games, but that spotless record is in jeopardy tonight as the 2013-14 season tips off against Alvernia at the Franklin & Marshall Tournament. Alvernia won the MAC Commonwealth last season, finishing at 24-5 overall and advancing to the second round of the NCAA tournament, where they lost to national quarterfinalists St. Mary’s 72-66. Returning five of their top six scorers from last season, Alvernia is ranked 21st in the D3Hoops.com preseason Top 25. Middlebury, ranked 18th, will rely on first-team All-American Joey Kizel to lead an otherwise-unproven cast against a veteran Crusader squad.

Alvernia’s top scorer is Brian Parker, a 6’4″ forward who shot 57% and put up 14.7 points and 9.2 rebounds in 25 minutes per game last season. An elite scorer like Parker would normally draw James Jensen’s defense, but the senior is likely to miss this tournament as he recovers from offseason surgery. The Crusaders’ second-leading scorer last season was Kahlil Bennett, now a senior, who scored 14.2 points per game but only shot 39/37/76. Who guards Bennett, with the departure of Nolan Thompson? Our guess is some combination of Kizel, Nate Bulluck and Henry Pendergast, each of whom is a strong defender, though in different ways. The other likely starters for Alvernia are 5’11” Lamont Clark, who scores around the basket, 5’9″ outside shooter Chris Davis, and 6’6″ center Harrison Deyo, a limited but efficient scorer. Expect these five, with the possible exception of Deyo, to play in the 35-minute range tonight. Offensively, Alvernia likes to spread the floor and drive to the hoop.

Based on the matchup, there are a couple key takeaways from a Middlebury perspective. First, the height disparity is significant. Any projected Panther frontcourt (some combination of 6’8″ Roberts, 6’5″ Sinnickson, 6’8″ Daley, 6’6″ Merryman, 6’6″ Nidenberg, 6’4″ Huff, and 6’9″ Churchill) will have the size advantage. However, none of the above players has an established post game, so whether they can capitalize is a different question. We expect Coach Brown to emphasize driving and dishing to Roberts and Daley around the basket, counting on his big men to clean up. Sinnickson and Merryman could both be featured at the 3 in bigger lineups, which would allow them to shoot with ease over smaller defenders. Middlebury’s rebounding was disappointing at times last season, and if they struggle here, it will indicate a major area of concern.

On the other side, Middlebury will have to stay in front of Alvernia’s smaller players, stopping penetration and enabling the other defenders to hold on the outside scorers. We project the four guards who get major playing time tonight to be Joey Kizel, Matt St. Amour, Nate Bulluck, and Henry Pendergast. Of those four, the first two will provide more offensive spark. The likely absence of Jake Brown (injury) hurts Middlebury because he is a quick and talented defender, but it might create an opportunity for Bulluck to showcase his skill as an individual defender.

There are two further differences between these teams that will likely define this game. The first is depth of talent. Unless they got hot on the recruiting trail this year, Alvernia’s roster is thin and if any of their main contributors get in foul trouble, it will likely mean a major downgrade. Contrast that to Middlebury, who could send out a third team of players who would start in most DIII programs. If Middlebury can push the tempo with increased substitutions, testing Alvernia’s early season stamina, they can take advantage of that exceptional depth. The other factor is continuity. While Alvernia’s core remains totally intact, Middlebury’s core doesn’t yet exist. That core was Kizel and the three graduating seniors from last year, along with the injured Jensen, and Roberts. Now, it’s likely a combination of players that has never played meaningful minutes together. Regardless of the progress they might have made this fall, that core is going to make mistakes because of their inexperience. Expect periods of offensive stagnation, and uncharacteristic defensive lapses. Coach Brown will likely try out several lineup combinations early, and hope that one hits a rhythm he can ride. Whether or not Middlebury plays cohesively will determine if they can stave off their first early-season loss in five years.

Here are links to each feature of our 2013-14 Middlebury and NESCAC basketball preview.

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Middlebury roster profiles
Conference preview
Schedule breakdown and analysis

Looking back at the big three
All-Conference teams and awards
Final thoughts

Preseason interviews: Merryman and Sinnickson; Huff, Pendergast, and Daley; St. Amour, Brown, Naughton, and Jones
Video: The Road to Salem: Part I

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Thanks for reading. Looking forward to a fun season.

Damon has been working along with students Kyle Finck and Sasha Schell on producing a documentary about Middlebury basketball. Part one was released this morning, with a focus on the success story of Jeff Brown. These guys are doing impressive work, and we look forward to sharing the final product after the season.