If you haven’t seen it yet, here is Part 5 of the Road to Salem, which follows the team on the day of their matchup with Williams:

Heading into the weekend, contributor Adam Lamont has a conference power ranking. Coming shortly a preview of tonights game featuring Adam’s 4th (Colby) and 5th (Middlebury) ranked teams.

1. Amherst (6-1) This number spot is much more closely contested than it was last week. It wasn’t shocking that Amherst had their first loss this weekend, but that it came against Colby, rather than Bowdoin was. Whether Amherst was looking ahead to their game against Bowdoin or just played a bad game isn’t clear, but a lot of credit also has to be given to the Mules. Amherst avoided the 0-2 weekend by eking out a great win over Bowdoin. Every three Aaron Toomey takes looks like it’s going in. Seeing him play in person was special. The ball movement Amherst showed against the Bowdoin zone at times was magical. Amherst figures to have a smooth weekend against Wesleyan and Conn College before finishing against Middlebury.

2. Williams (5-1) No way you can justify Williams jumping above Amherst despite the Colby upset. Williams looked lost in the first half against Middlebury and figured to be pretty much out of the conference race at half time. A great comeback kept their NESCAC-hosting hopes alive and it almost looked like Williams could be in the driver’s seat if Bowdoin beat Amherst. Four NESCAC games remain against lower tier teams for the Ephs who have played the meat of their conference schedule. Williams will have to be careful not to get complacent. A Taylor Epley resurgence is likely the key for Williams to have a chance against Amherst in their third meeting, which seems more and more likely.

3. Bowdoin (5-2) Respect only means so much, but Bowdoin has proved it can go toe-to-toe against Williams and Amherst. Bowdoin took a beating against Trinity and came out flat against Amherst who looked dominant for the first 10 minutes. But Bowdoin refused to lie down and came back before ultimately seeing Amherst make more plays down the stretch. Bryan Hurley is back and though he didn’t make a big impact this weekend, he could be the difference for Bowdoin down the stretch if he can play his way into game shape. The Bears can’t rest up too much as they have three tough road games to close out the year.

4. Colby (3-4) Call it an overreaction to one game if you want, but the Mules just put the league on notice if not for this year than certainly the near future. Their top five scorers are all sophomores with Chris Hudnut the leader of the group. Colby played both Bowdoin and Williams to single digit losses on the road but also couldn’t hang with Hamilton or Conn. College at home. If we buy their recent success they are growing up at the right time.

5. Middlebury (3-3) A baffling and heartbreaking weekend for the Panthers who looked they were coming together with a dominating first half against Williams. Then they blew that lead, losing to the Ephs in heartbreaking fashion, and couldn’t recover Sunday against Hamilton losing again in the final minute. No one questions the talent they have, but worries about chemistry and effort have to be voiced. They do have the ability to put it together and win the NESCAC tournament — assuming they make it that far. None of their remaining games (three of which are against three of the four top teams on this list) are easy wins.

6. Trinity (3-4) The offense completely broke down Friday night against Bowdoin. Still that defense is formidable — especially in the paint — and they would have beaten Colby if they shot better than 57.7 percent from the free throw line. With that defense they can beat anybody, but it seems unlikely they could win three games in a row and win the conference championship.

7. Hamilton (2-4) They have played the hardest schedule in the NESCAC so far, and while nothing screams sleeper about them, wins over Middlebury and Colby can’t be dismissed. Matt Hart, who leads the conference averaging 21.5 points per game on 48/42/84 splits, deserves First-Team All-NESCAC consideration, and if Hamilton gets hot down the stretch he could be in the running for Player of the Year honors as well.

8. Wesleyan (3-3) Yes they have won three games in a row, but none of them were particular shockers. They are almost guaranteed five conferences losses because they still have to play Williams and Amherst. A nice young core is developing especially on the perimeter, but they have to get some size before they will compete at a high level.

9. Tufts (2-4) Disappointment is not hard to come by in Medford right now. Their first three conference losses were all understandable and they seemed to be turning the corner with two straight wins. Then they inexplicably got out-played at Wesleyan. They have gotten stellar play from freshman big man Hunter Sabety, but the loss of Tom Palleschi before the season has been too much to overcome.

10. Conn College (2-4) Their win Saturday over Bates means the Camels escape the basement. Given their lack of success in recent years, just making the conference tournament will be a success for them, but that remains an uphill battle. Unfortunately Matt Vadas isn’t coming back next year and the future in New London doesn’t look very bright.

11. Bates (1-5) This is a team with a lot of talent for a last place team and that shows the depth, but also the inconsistency, of the NESCAC this year. The Bobcats beat Middlebury in Pepin Gymnasium to start NESCAC play, but everything has gone south since then. What exactly has happened in Lewiston is unclear, but they can still salvage the season if they can beat their Maine rivals in the final weekend of the season, which may be enough to secure them a spot in the NESCAC Tournament as well.

Friday, January 31, 2014, 8pm
Williams (15-3, 4-1) at Middlebury (12-5, 3-1)

Before this season started, we pegged Williams as the team to beat in the conference, and likely the nation. Halfway through the conference schedule, though ranked 11th in the nation and second in the conference, the Ephs have to feel like they are playing well below their potential. After pushing Amherst to the last possession in the NESCAC Championship last season, then making a run to the Elite Eight in the NCAA Tournament, Williams returned senior superstars Michael mayer and Taylor Epley and brought in the most highly-touted freshman in the country, Duncan Robinson. Amherst however, despite losing an extremely talented and accomplished senior class, has not given up their spot at the top of the conference. Two matchups with Williams earlier this month produced 11- and 12-point victories for the Lord Jeffs. Entering tonight’s contest at Pepin, Williams needs a convincing win to re-establish itself as the powerhouse it set out to be heading into this season.

Though the lows for the Ephs have certainly not matched those of Middlebury in 2013-14, the parallel is noteworthy. Two national powerhouses, with four combined trips to Salem in the past three years, underperforming relative to expectations. While we have discussed in depth the sources of Middlebury’s problems, we want to take a look at what’s gone right and what’s gone wrong for this year’s Ephs.

What’s gone right is simple: Duncan Robinson is one of the best players in the country as a freshman. The 6’7″ wingman is a rich man’s Willy Workman, an all-around superstar who can score from anywhere and excels on both sides of the court. Robinson leads the Ephs in scoring at 15.9 points per game. His peripheral statistics are even more impressive, shooting an incredible 64% on 2-point field goals, 48% on 3-point field goals, and a conference-best 90% from the line. His 6.7 rebounds per game, 1.7 assists per game, 1.4 blocks per game, and 1.0 steals per game round out his pristine resume. Robinson could very well be the best player in the conference as a freshman. Two key complimentary players, Daniel Wohl and Ryan Kilcullen, have also been big bright spots this season. Wohl’s 13.5 points per game, 51/35/69 shooting, 5.9 rebounds per game, 2.7 assists per game, 0.9 blocks per game, and 1.3 steals per game make him a bit of a Duncan Robinson Lite. Kilcullen would start at center for most teams in the conference, shooting 49/50/81 at 6’7,” 225 pounds.

What’s gone wrong is a bit more nuanced. The two returning seniors have regressed, to different degrees. All-American center Michael Mayer has dropped from 17.7 to 15.6 points per game, while losing a bit of efficiency with a 54/17/75 shooting line (57/37/76 last year). He is recovering from injury and seems to be back to his old self at this point. Taylor Epley, meanwhile, has lost 5.4 points per game, dropping from 18.5 to 13.4, and is shooting just 43% from the field after a 50% 2012-13. Starting point guard Hayden Rooke-Ley, after missing last season to injury, has gone down again and will miss tonight’s game. Notably, Rooke-Ley was in foul trouble in Williams’ first two losses this season, and out with injury in the third. Freshman Mike Greenman has filled in for Rooke-Ley,  averaging 7.7 points and 3.5 assists in 30 minutes per game since the injury.

As a result of these ups and downs, Williams stands about where it did last year in terms of overall team caliber. In order to win the conference, or make a national title run, Epley will need to step up and Rooke-Ley will likely need to return near full strength. What that means for Middlebury is that this game is winnable, but not much more. Williams is still clearly a tier above the Panthers in terms of star power, consistency, and execution. Matt Daley’s absence is a major blow to Middlebury’s upset hopes. While his numbers have been strong (21 points per 40 minutes, 58% field goal shooting), they do not begin to reflect his effect on Middlebury’s performance. The 6’8″ Daley is an excellent passer, spacer, and defender, and this team has played on a different level with him on the court.

Without Daley, Middlebury will need to win the outside shooting game in order to keep it close. In their three losses this season, Williams has shot just 27% from the field (compare to 39% on the season). Sticking tight to Epley, Robinson, and Wohl on the perimeter will be a priority. Meanwhile, Williams is likely to play a fair amount of zone defense, and Middlebury’s outside scorers must take advantage. Joey Kizel, Dylan Sinnickson, Hunter Merryman, and Matt St. Amour are all strong outside shooters, but none can afford an off-game tonight. Finally, Middlebury will need to stop Michael Mayer, as interior defense has been a major problem at times this season. Some combination of Jack Roberts and James Jensen will take that assignment, and they need to establish a physical presence early, or else there could be a lot of easy buckets for the highly skilled Mayer.

Ultimately, we think that is too much to ask of this Middlebury team, and Williams will come away with the win. 78-70.

Finally, tonight is our last radio broadcast ever, so if you can’t make Pepin, hopefully you can listen here (radio icon). If you want to watch the live video, you can always mute it and turn on the radio stream in the background.

Before tonight’s Williams game, we asked Peter Lindholm ‘17.5 to share his Middlebury basketball story. Game preview to follow. 

The first Middlebury basketball game I ever went to, I only saw five minutes of action.  I was a bookish 8 year old, in fact, maybe the most obviously unathletic 8 year old in the state.  Harry Potter book in hand, I had been dragged to the game by my dad, an alumni and huge fan.  Looking back, I can see how much he wanted me to share in his passion for the team, but I just wasn’t there yet.  I followed his motions in preparing for the game, standing for the national anthem, clapping during the starting lineups, clapping with more passion when the loud bearded guy announcing the lineups raised his voice.  Then the game started, and I was finally able to read Harry Potter uninterrupted.  Five minutes passed, and Harry was just about to come face to face with the infamous Sirius Black, when the timeout buzzer sounded.  The sound jolted me out of my reverie like a Stunning Spell, and reverberated in my head, making further focus difficult.  Fed up, I took my book and stormed off to Lawson Lounge, favoring the peace and quiet and leaving the game to continue without me.

My attitude about Middlebury basketball did eventually change, but not right away.  I went to several more games, enough to get me through the third, fourth and fifth Harry Potter books.  My dad tried several times to get me interested in the game, but, as tends to be the case, it was my mom who finally got my head in the game.  She basically marched me at gunpoint to sign up for intramural basketball in middle school, which doubled as the tryouts for the travel team.  Once I was playing the game, I fell in love immediately.  Not because of any great skill, trust me.  Average would still be a great compliment to my skills on the court.  No, I fell in love with basketball’s flow.  Basketball is a very liquid game, one play flows into the next seamlessly, and the movement is constant.  When it is played well, it seems like each player is tied to each other with a rope, and depends on their teammates to move the unit.  I finally began to understand what my dad saw at Middlebury games.

To my complete shock, I made the travel team out of those intramurals, and there began my relationship with Middlebury basketball, both high school and college.  On the travel team, I met my teammates, who remain to this day my best friends.  We were able to keep that core group together as we advanced through the Middlebury’s basketball ranks, getting separated briefly in the JV and Varsity schism, but reunited by my junior year.  We were able to grow together, both as players and as people, and that was the main reason for our success as a team.

Another huge contributor to our basketball learning was Middlebury College basketball.  I don’t know what I did to deserve such a great formative basketball experience, but to have Middlebury College become a dominant team in Division Three as soon as I became interested in basketball was nothing short of a blessing.  From eighth grade until Christmas Break of this year, my teammates and I went to the vast majority of home games at Pepin Gym, soaking up all we could.  And that was quite a bit.  We’d watch how those Panther teams seemed to be all one player at times, each cut pulling the string for another player to fill his spot.  They played hard, together, and with a passion that was visible to even our immature basketball minds.  We were also big fans of Andrew Locke swatting balls into the fifth row.   At halftime we’d play rigorous games of three on three in Nelson, with an intensity that rivaled any of our school practices.  Whenever someone would conjure a shot out of thin air and make it, we’d call out “Hey, is that Ben Rudin?”

Those college games were woven into our formative years.  The scrimmages in Nelson got better and better, as we did the same.  Soon we were driving ourselves to games, both home and away, and cheering in the fan sections, previously a not-feared-but-respected domain of college students.  The best road trip my friends and I ever took was down to Williamstown with my dad, to see Middlebury beat Williams and Amherst back to back to win NESCAC.  And the second best was when the same crew drove down to Amherst to watch Middlebury lose in overtime on a deep three by Taylor “Bleeping” Barrisse.  As my dad says, “The best thing in sports is winning.  The second best thing is losing.”

Today my teammates and I are spread across the country, from Elon in North Carolina to Drexel in Pennsylvania.  Our college allegiances have shifted to fit our respective schools, but I like to think that the Middlebury Panthers will always hold a place in our hearts as the team that first taught us how basketball can and should be played.

This year’s Middlebury team has been frustrating at times, but inspiring at other times.  They play hard, and they’re beginning to play for each other, the hallmark of the teams of my youth.  The biggest game of the season, this Friday’s home matchup with the rival Williams College, has potential to be the turning point of the season.  A win would be the adrenaline shot this team needs to make the NESCAC run that they are capable of.   But more than that, it would be the reward for not giving up on this trying season.  And that reward would be for the fans as well as the players.

My two best friends from high school are coming down for the game, as it falls during their “dead week” after J-Terms.  One of them goes to Elon in North Carolina, and the other is from Williams.  It would be a fascinating case study for a Psych. major to chart his internal struggle between his two allegiances.  Formative Influences Versus Adult Choices. A make or break rivalry game with my two best friends in Pepin Gym?  Let’s just say that I’m looking forward to it.  And that Harry Potter will stay on the shelf.

With two of the surprise teams in the NESCAC tipping off against one another, contributing writer, Adam Lamont takes a look at how Bowdoin and Trinity — two teams with similar makeups — matchup against one another.

Every single Bowdoin basketball fan is ecstatic about how the season has gone so far with Bowdoin (16-1, 4-1) off to its best start ever. Even though the team sports a 4-1 NESCAC record, naysayers still point out that all of those wins came against teams that have just one conference win each. They say Bowdoin needed a miracle shot to beat Bates in December and were pushed by teams like UMaine Farmington and Bridgewater State. Let me state that I am not one of those people who thinks the Polar Bears haven’t proven themselves. With that being said the stakes are unquestionably way higher this weekend than at any other time this season. Bowdoin plays Trinity (11-7, 3-2) tonight and Amherst (16-2, 5-0) Saturday afternoon. The dream scenario for the Polar Bears is what last played out January 29 and 30 of 2010 when Bowdoin beat Amherst on a last second shot and followed that up with a four-point win over Trinity. Circumstances were very different then as only one of the players in tomorrow’s game was on those rosters and Amherst finished 3-6 in the NESCAC that year. And oh, by the way, since the 2011-2012 season Amherst is 25-0 in conference play.

Trinity enters the game 3-2 in conference, but those two losses came to Williams and Amherst; the Bantams could be primed for a late season run as this year’s NESCAC darkhorse. In fact, Trinity and Bowdoin are very similar in makeup. They rank first and second, respectively, in team defense this year and spread the ball around on offense; neither team has a player average more than 15 points per game. The play of sophomore Shay Ajayi and freshman Ed Ogundeko in the frontcourt has been the catalyst for the improved rebounding as well as a much needed scoring punch. Bowdoin has won the rebounding battle in almost every game it has played, simply because John Swords has used his size in the paint to bring down boards. Notably, he has improved his balance this year so that he is almost impossible to push out of the paint on defensive rebounds. The big bodies of Keegan Pieri and Grant White amplify the rebounding advantage Swords gives the Polar Bears, who have outrebounded teams by 11.3 rebounds per game. Trinity is the best rebounding team and most physical front court that Bowdoin will have faced thus far so it will be crucial for Bowdoin to continue its dominance on the glass.

In the backcourt the point man for the Bantams is Jaquan Starks who leads the team in points and assists with 11.6 points per game and 3.9 assists per game. The 5’9’’ sophomore guard is not an efficient scorer, shooting 36 percent from the floor while averaging 9.9 field goal attempts per game. He shoots a higher percentage from three (38.5) than from the field so limiting his looks from deep should be Bowdoin’s top priority. The Polar Bears switches between man and zone depending partly on lineups and whether John Swords gets into foul trouble. With Trinity shooting 36 percent from deep as a team Bowdoin will likely start in man, but Coach Tim Gilbride will vary that depending on circumstance.

On offense Bowdoin’s balanced attack has moved away somewhat from its three-point-heavy approach earlier in the year to focus more on getting the ball into the paint. For comparison, in their first game against Colby, the Polar Bears shot 18 threes versus just six in their second meeting last Saturday. Swords is becoming a little more assertive on offense and starting to finish with more confidence around the basket. Pieri has become more of a focal point as well in the offense. The junior forward is looking for shots earlier in the game, mostly in the elbow area, but has even flashed an occasional three-pointer at times (though he is shooting just 27 percent from beyond the arc). Given the size and style of these two teams, expect a low-scoring, slow-paced game throughout that will come down to who can execute and find easy shots down the stretch. This one feels like a race to 60.

Looking big picture, one last note of significance is the return of Brian Hurley, who last year was Bowdoin’s starting point guard and best player. He returned from a knee injury on Tuesday against Thomas College, but expecting him to be an impact player immediately might be a mistake. In13 minutes of play, Hurley collected three points, two assists and three turnovers. I don’t know what his playing time will be like this weekend, but it would be surprising if he saw extensive time. However, with each week that goes by he should get more and more comfortable and provide flexibility and depth at guard. Some are worried that Hurley’s return will upset the rotation and hurt the play of the other guards. This seems sort of ridiculous given the minutes for the three perimeter spots are divided up mostly amongst four players: Matt Mathias, Grant White, Andrew Madlinger and Lucas Hausman. At the beginning of the year Jake Donnelly averaged 10 minute per game at point guard, giving Mathias valuable time to rest, but Donnelly is out with an injury and hasn’t played in a few months. In five NESCAC games Mathias has average 34.2 mpg where he is the primary ball handler. Doing that back-to-back days is brutal and giving him five more minutes of rest a game should be extremely helpful. With Hurley back I would love to see some type of crazy small ball lineup with Swords surrounded by four shooters with White playing power forward. But that is the type of lineup that a coach wants to see practice and develop chemistry before putting in a game, so it’s doubtful any small ball lineup will log many minutes. Nevertheless, the addition of Hurley is something to keep a close eye on the rest of the way. Though he might not be a big part of this weekend, he should have a say in what happens in the NESCAC by the end of the season.