Check out Part IV of the Road to Salem, which focuses on Middlebury’s three-game losing streak and how the Panthers have responded.

Damon wrote his last editorial for The Campus this week, about the impressions that the basketball team, as well as the women’s hockey team, left on him in the last four years. Maybe we can get him to write the 10,000 word version on here soon. Link

Friday night’s game against Wesleyan demonstrated why it’s still too early to count Middlebury in our out this year. On the one hand, Middlebury came away with a 77-75 victory in a NESCAC game on the road, but on the other, the same issues that have plagued Middlebury all season long were present once again in Middletown and the Cardinals spent much of the evening clipping their own wings in a game that they probably should have won.

First, the good: after missing a number of big shots down the stretch in a number of Middlebury’s losses so far this year, Joey Kizel delivered in a major way last night, despite struggling from the floor throughout much of the game. With his team trailing by three, with 21 seconds left in overtime, Kizel pulled up from NBA range and drained a three to tie the game and, after a pair of misses from Wesleyan, send the game into double overtime. Kizel started the game 0-5, and didn’t make his first field goal until the 2:38 mark, when he made a tough layup to cut the Wesleyan lead to three. On Middlebury’s next possession, Kizel orchestrated Middlebury’s one effective set — the pick-and-roll with Sinnickson at the top of the key — and found a wide open Sinnickson for a game-tying three. Sinnickson was tremendous, making 6-12 threes for 18 points to match Kizel as the Panthers’ high scorers. While Sinnickson’s performance was noteworthy, it’s highly unlikely he will get the same looks he did Friday at any point this season. Wesleyan’s pick-and-roll defense was virtually nonexistent, as Cardinal defenders routinely left Sinnickson — who is clearly one of the conference’s best three-point shooters — wide open all evening long. Perhaps their primary defensive assignment was stopping Kizel from turning the corner and getting penetration, but time and time again — and most egregiously when Middlebury trailed by three and Kizel was 1-5 from the floor — Wesleyan defenders got lost in the high-screen action and paid dearly for it. Kizel carried the Panthers from there, scoring 14 points over the game’s final 12:38. It was a throw-back performance for the All-American guard who looked every bit the player who has willed this team back into games before. James Jensen played a big part in Middlebury’s late-game surge, with all 13 of his points off the bench coming in the second half and overtime. Jensen finished 5-11 from the floor, but missed a couple of shots close to the basket that he normally finishes. Jensen has struggled at times this year as he has been asked to play increasingly with his back to the basket, but Friday showed more of the energetic, low post movement to which Middlebury fans have become accustomed. Matt St. Amour also had a strong performance, despite a quiet box score (8 points on 1-3 shooting). The freshman made two key plays late in the game that belie his lack of experience, first stealing the ball from impressive freshman Harry Rafferty to set up Sinnickson’s game-tying three with just over two minutes remaining in regulation and then drawing a foul with 8 seconds left in double overtime to go to the free throw line, where he made two free throws to give Middlebury a 77-75 victory. As a team, Middlebury was stingy once again defenisvely, limiting Wesleyan to less than 35 percent shooting from the floor.

That’s the good — and there were stretches of strong play from the Panthers — but it should be recognized within the overall context: Middlebury should not have won this game. Wesleyan’s inexperience and chance had as much to do with the Panthers’ victory as their play. While win-probability graphs are not kept for D-III basketball, it’s not hard to imagine that Wesleyan had a better than 90 percent chance of winning the game at the end of regulation (up 5 with the ball with 3:00 minutes left) and in the first overtime (up 3 with 28 seconds left). And if Middlebury loses the game in regulation, many of the positives listed above — especially the play of Kizel, who was 1-6 with 5 turnovers at that point — go out the window. Around Kizel the offense is still very much a work in progress. Sinnickson will continue to stretch the floor and give Middlebury an outlet on offense when their sets break down, but he won’t see the looks he got against Wesleyan tonight again this season. And Middlebury had precious little go right for them in the half court, outside of the the two-man game between Kizel and Sinnickson. St. Amour made an immediate impact when he checked into the game, getting to the free throw line and draining a long three on his first two possessions, but that was it for him until the second overtime from an offensive standpoint. After struggling mightily with his shot early in the season, St. Amour has found a rhythm from beyond the arc and the game appears to have slowed down for him considerably going to the basket. Unfortunately, Middlebury has not gotten enough touches for him and he failed to contribute on offense for a long stretch as a result. Finding St. Amour greater opportunities — perhaps by running more sets specifically for him — could be a difference-maker for this team down the stretch. Middlebury also needs greater consistency from Hunter Merryman, who has been one of the few Middlebury players who has produced over the length of the season, but his strong performances have been interspersed with games like Friday’s, when the 6’6” junior went 3-13 from the floor and 0-7 in the second half and overtime periods. Merryman remains a great three-point shooter and a strong finisher around the basket, but settles for too many long-range jump shots off the dribble. With Matt Daley out due to illness, it becomes more difficult, but all the more important that Middlebury finds good looks out of their half-court sets rather than settle for forced jump shots late in the shot clock.

Today the Panthers travel to Connecticut College (7-6, 1-1) for a game that, in year’s past, was a surefire victory. But the Camels, who have already secured their first NESCAC victory — an 82-74 win at Colby — after going winless in the conference a season ago, will provide another test for Middlebury. Matt Vadas is back to his usual ways, putting up a high volume of points on an even higher (comparatively) volume of shots. The Camels’ senior guard is averaging 19.9 points per game on 42/39/80 splits and as goes Vadas, so goes the team: Conn. College shoots just 42/36/69 from the floor while scoring 69.5 points per game. On the other end, the Camels have surrendered an average of just 69.7 points per game, which has kept them competitive through the first seven games of the season. Vadas has received support from senior forward Mason Lopez who has been a far more efficient scorer on fewer attempts. The 6’3” Lopez is averaging 12.5 points per game while shooting better than 43 percent from both the floor and beyond the arc. Freshman forward Zuri Pavlin has also made an immediate impact for the Camels: the 6’5” forward is one of two players in the NESCAC averaging a double-double with 10.7 points and 10.4 rebounds per game. Point guard Bo McKinley rounds out Conn. College’s key contributors. The sophomore is averaging 9.2 points per game and leads the team with four assists per game. McKinley can knock down open shots, at the rate of 48 percent from deep, where he is the Camels’ most dangerous threat. Outside of those four, Connecticut College does not receive substantial contributions. This appears to be an improved team, but it’s hard to believe that a team that relies so heavily on just four players can run with a Middlebury team that has the talent and depth to create problems for the Camels.

22nd-ranked Bowdoin has been the surprise team of the NESCAC so far this season. Despite an injury to arguably their most important player, point guard Bryan Hurley, the Polar Bears have found steady footing this year behind the play of center John Swords and an overachieving starting lineup. In preparation for today’s NESCAC showdown betwee Bowdoin and 18th-ranked Williams, contributing writer Adam Lamont has previewed the Polar Bears and broken down the games of the team’s key contributors

A winning streak starts innocently enough. One win is nothing to get overly excited about to begin the year. Soon after a couple more wins a team starts to gain more and more confidence. Bowdoin has started the season 12-0, and by no means has their run been perfect. But oh boy has it been exciting. The streak’s highlight so far has been undoubtedly the Matt Mathias miracle against Bates in December. The buzzer beater capped off a crazy final minute and a half with the two Maine teams trading baskets right up until the end. Most of the games have been close grind it out contests with Bowdoin making enough plays down the stretch to pull it out. If that sounds like it’s diminishing what Bowdoin has done, maybe that’s true, but Bowdoin is yet to play anybody of real significance. The two victories over the other Maine schools are great, but were non-conference games. Their two conference wins against Conn College and Wesleyan were quality wins, but should not be overstated. It’s clear many are hesitant to give Bowdoin too much credit as they are ranked only 19th in the most recent D3hoops poll. Their game against Williams today will be watched closely to see if Bowdoin can compete for a NESCAC title this year.

The most encouraging factor of this start has been the clear identity that has been present from the first game. A very apt comparison of Bowdoin is the Indiana Pacers right before Paul George made the leap to superstar status. Bowdoin is big at every position and on defense plays a 2-3 zone in order to clog up the paint. The Polar Bears don’t push the ball — they’ve eclipsed the 70-point mark just five times this season. Bowdoin has a bunch of very capable players who complement each other well, but they are very thin, which requires the starters log heavy minutes. What follows is a player-by-player breakdown of Bowdoin’s roster and their Pacers equivalent.

Player Comparisons

John Swords (Center) — Roy Hibbert: Bowdoin’s identity stems from the presence of John Swords in the middle. The offense centers on trying to get the ball into Swords who more often than not throws it back outside to find open looks for his teammates on the perimeter. Without Swords, the foundation of both the offense and the defense would be drastically different. The junior seven footer has been a model of consistency so far with only two games in single-digit scoring and at least five rebounds every game. Last year he demonstrated flashes of his potential as a game-changing player, but lacked any type of consistent offensive game. This year the only weakness in his game is his continued propensity for foul trouble. If he stays out of foul trouble he will average right around 30 minutes per game. Teams can still attack him by isolating him one and one in the elbow area where Swords struggles to keep up with quicker forwards. Chris Hudnut, Colby’s center, had 20 points and Swords had four fouls in Colby and Bowdoin’s first meeting so Swords is by no means a lockdown defender. Another predictable problem for Swords is his foul shooting which is less than 50%.

Keegan Pieri (Power Forward) — David West: This might just be the most apt comparison with the Pacers. Pieri is not a flashy player, but can be counted on for about 12 points and 7 rebounds game in and game out. His ability to hit mid-range shots is crucial in spacing the floor for Swords inside. Often Pieri gets lost in the shuffle because he doesn’t do anything spectacular. Pieri can create his own shot in isolation sets when he works from the elbow area.

Grant White (Small Forward) — Paul George: This is Paul George 2011 edition and not the Paul George who is one of the best five players in the NBA. White is the most frustrating player to watch on offense for Bowdoin. A 54.5% three point shooter who can occasionally create his own shot should not have six shot attempts TOTAL in the first two NESCAC games. When White opened the season with 20 points in the first game it looked like he was going to come into his own. His regression this season is puzzling because this is the first season basketball was his only priority (he also played quarterback for the football team) and he lost most of last year to injury. He should be becoming more and more confident every week, but instead is basically a spot-up shooter and good defender who has to log heavy minutes because he is one of Bowdoin’s few reliable wing players.

Andrew Madlinger (Shooting Guard) — Nobody comparable: Madlinger doesn’t really have a parallel on the Pacers because he is a very steady player who shoots three’s on 60% of his shots. He doesn’t possess the ability to make plays either for himself or his teammates that one would want from one of your primary ball-handlers, but Madlinger makes up for it with his shooting. Like any shooter he runs hot and cold, but when he finds his range, the Bowdoin offense is very hard to stop.

Matt Mathias (Point Guard) — George Hill: Mathias has been incredible in filling in for an injured Brian Hurley. Mathias is not the same player as Hurley, but his composure in initiating the offense has silenced concerns that Bowdoin would be wracked with turnovers without Hurley. The strength of Mathias’ offensive game is his shooting (noticing a trend yet?) but he has enough bounce to get into the lane and distribute. His scoring is a tad up from last year, but he is playing a much different role evidenced by his increase in assists from 2.0 to 4.7 this year.

Lucas Hausman (Combo Guard) — Lance Stephenson: The trait Lance Stephenson is most associated with is confidence dating back to the days when he was a benchwarmer calling out Lebron. Hausman possesses that same moxie for better or worse depending on the game. He is the most dynamic shot-creator Bowdoin has, but often forces the issue too much. His minutes are actually down from last year in large part because he is shooting only 19% from three, which doesn’t really make sense considering he is a good shooter, evidenced by his 87% free throw percentage.

Matt Palecki (Power Forward) — Tyler Hansbrough: This parallel is pretty much spot on. Palecki clearly wants to bring energy off the bench when he comes in. He lacks the athleticism to finish over or around defenders, but does a good job with positioning. Same holds for rebounding. Palecki played very well in the first conference game of the year and could be a valuable scorer off the bench.

Neil Fuller (Power Forward) — Ian Mahinmi: Fuller is not really like Mahinmi in style, but they have similar roles. If John Swords gets into any type of foul trouble Fuller takes most of those minutes. He doesn’t look to score much on offense, but actually has good passing vision, which leads to easy baskets inside for others. There aren’t a lot of minutes with Swords and Pieri entrenched, but Fuller should continue to grow this year.

Looking Ahead

The biggest question entering the season was how Bowdoin would do with Brian Hurley out with an ACL injury. His outside shooting and steady ball handling was critical all of last year. Head coach Tim Gilbride has done a great job this year making sure that the offense doesn’t need a great point guard to score consistently. While Matthias’s play has diminished the loss of Hurley, depth remains the biggest concern going forward. As the Polar Bears enter the stretch period of the NESCAC schedule, will they continue to compete and make big plays late in games when most of the starters play well upwards of thirty minutes a game? If somebody gets into foul trouble or has injury issues, Coach Gilbride will struggle to juggle the rotation and find extra minutes for his bench. The perimeter is especially thin with Hausman being the only bench player getting serious minutes in the backcourt. Ideally one of the three power forwards would be able to play small forward occasionally. Defensively this wouldn’t be an issue because Bowdoin plays the 2-3 almost exclusively, but spacing is can be an issue on offense. But, much like the Indiana Pacers last season — Indiana’s starting five had the best +/- of any team in the NBA by a considerable margin in 2012-13 — right now Bowdoin’s starters have been incredibly effective as a unit. And, as a result, the Polar Bears are enjoying their best start in school history as they prepares for their biggest test yet against Williams.

This preview was contributed by Peter Lindholm ‘17.5, a long-time follower of Middlebury basketball. 

For the first time in this frustrating 2014 season, the magic of the last four years was palpable in Pepin Gym on Sunday night.  The first half of Sunday’s game against Tufts followed the same formula as the clinically depressing Bates loss.  Middlebury’s interior defense was paper thin, with Tufts freshman Hunter Sabety playing the role of paper shredder, with 16 first half points (on 8-8 shooting), and the Panthers trailed 38-35.

The second half however, was a different story.  The Panthers showed the mental fortitude that has characterized the Middlebury teams of the last six years.  After Sabety and James Jensen got tangled up early in the second half, Middlebury dominated the rest of the way, ultimately winning 80-66.  As the second half went on, the crowd in Pepin seemed to lift the team higher and higher.  It was certainly possible to see this team as the next generation in the proud basketball tradition that Middlebury has developed.

Following an 81-69 win over perennial cupcake Lyndon State, Friday’s game at Wesleyan is the perfect chance for Middlebury to continue this newfound success.  But it won’t just happen magically.  Middlebury has to continue the good things that we saw against Tufts, particularly the defensive intensity, the cohesiveness of the new lineup, and the play of Dylan Sinnickson.

The second half of the Tufts game was marked by effort and intensity on the defensive end.  Jeff Brown tried a number of different matchups on Sabety in the first half, with little success.  The matchup that finally stopped the big freshman was Matt Daley, who used his extensive wingspan to half-front Sabety, making interior touches far more difficult.  Jake Brown also played stellar on ball defense against Tufts’ perimeter threats. This defense will need to continue against Wesleyan.  Sophomore forward Rashid Epps is averaging 11.5 points and a league leading 10.6 rebounds per game.  Boxing him out and limiting his inside catches will be imperative for a win.  Middlebury will also have to limit penetration, so Epps doesn’t get layups off passes from slashing guards.  Stopping the penetration and limiting Epps’ catches will also prevent Wesleyan from getting open threes off of inside-out movement, something they are dangerous at, averaging 11.5 made threes in NESCAC play thus far.

Middlebury came out against Tufts with a new look.  Jake Brown and Dylan Sinnickson replaced Jensen and freshman Matt St. Amour in the starting lineup.  These changes were important for a couple of reasons.  First, the emergence of Jake Brown at the point allowed Joey Kizel to play off the ball and focus more on scoring, clearly the best part of his game.  Also, Jensen and St Amour will be able to come off the bench and change the pace of the game with Jensen’s athleticism and St Amour’s scoring ability.  For the first time all year, the Panthers seem to have a lineup which is both cohesive together and versatile in its lineup options.

However, the effectiveness of this lineup, and the team in general, is dependent on Dylan Sinnickson.  His athleticism bolsters the rebounding and defense, his improved shooting touch spreads the floor, and his mere presence allows Jensen to come off the bench as an energy boost, where I believe he is best served.   Sinnickson came back from an absence against Bates with 23 points, but some questionable decisions, probably due to overcompensation for his absence.  He scored 15 against Tufts, with 5 rebounds, and looked much more settled in the offense.  Sinnickson’s versatility and skills are vital to Middlebury’s success against Wesleyan, and in the rest of NESCAC play.

For Middlebury to come back from this slow start and make a run in the NESCAC’s, every game is vital.  Against Tufts, young players like Daley, Brown and St Amour took great steps forward, and established players like Kizel (17) and Merriman (15) continued their strong play.  The Panthers need that balance from here on out.  Wesleyan is 0-2 in NESCAC, but they’ve played Amherst and Bowdoin, the cream of this year’s crop.  They will be hungry for a signature win against a power player like Middlebury, and they have a strong inside presence in Epps and outside threats in Harry Rafferty (13.0) and Joe Edmonds (10.2 and a 41.3% mark from downtown).  This game could either be another building block on Middlebury’s path to redemption, or another nail in their coffin.