After a tough 0-2 weekend at the Hoopsville Classic, the Panthers travel to Rensselaer for the first of five non-conference games before NESCAC season tips off on January 10th. The Engineers lost their top three scorers from a 17-10 squad last season, and have started off 2013-14 with three consecutive losses. RPI runs a modified Grinnell offense, in which they often pressure the ball with a full-court press, take chances on defense, look to shoot early in the shot clock, and substitute wholesale lines every few minutes. This leads to an often frantic tempo and creates unusual stat lines and tons of scoring. This is the team against which Middlebury scored a team record 123 points in 2012, that usually plays 15 players for double-digit minutes, and that allowed Pete Lynch and James Jensen a combined 39 points in last year’s matchup. As it has been each of the past few years, the RPI game will be intriguing and will probably produce a few box score surprises.

While Middlebury will be forced to adjust because of RPI’s style of play, there is little reason to believe that they will not win by virtue of being the better team. It might take some time to get accustomed to the pace of play, but RPI’s defense is porous, its offense is inefficient, and Middlebury can make more of their possessions because of the disparity in both size and talent. In last year’s matchup, Middlebury won 105-86, shooting 57% from the field and getting a lot of open looks around the basket. This season, one area of emphasis has been the fast-break, with coach Brown imploring his players to push the ball up the court after defensive rebounds. We have seen several big runs so far this season behind that style of play, pushing the tempo and taking it to basket, and we expect Middlebury to excel in transition Sunday. Jake Brown and Joey Kizel are both capable of leading the break and there is enough depth and athleticism around them to run with the substitution-heavy Engineers.

That said, one area of weakness so far for Middlebury has been passing. On several occasions last weekend, a pass back to a guard was telegraphed, thrown weakly and intercepted, leading to a fast-break layup. In particular, Middlebury’s bigs were casual with the basketball when they initiated the offense at the top of the key. Rensselaer will sell out trying to make plays on similar passes, so it will be on the Panthers to show they have learned quickly, and be more aware in those situations. In a game like this, inexperienced players (of which Middlebury has several) need to show that they are heady and can make good decisions in unexpected or chaotic situations. Because of RPI’s aggression, this matchup will be valuable for the players and instructive for the coaches. In 2012, Middlebury’s veteran-heavy squad limited RPI to four steals. This year, RPI comes in averaging 17 steals per game and will likely have more success than last year, but if it gets to double digits that should raise concerns about Middlebury’s savviness on the ball.

The rotation continues to be defined by moving pieces and the closer we get to conference play the fewer chances those on the outside are going to have to prove themselves. The only three guys who have started every game are Joey Kizel, Jack Roberts and Matt Daley. We expect one of the latter two to get pushed out by the return of James Jensen (likely in this game). Hunter Merryman’s play has earned him a start in every game since the season-opener, and he is likely to stick there. The other guard spot is going to come down to Matt St. Amour, Jake Brown and Nate Bulluck. If those eight are near-locks in the rotation, it doesn’t leave much room for the minutes of those behind them come conference play. Jake Nidenberg has scored efficiently (8.2 ppg, 70% FG in 16 mpg) and will stay in the rotation as long as he keeps that up. Henry Pendergast is battling an injury and should get an opportunity to play more on the ball in the coming weeks, which will determine his status going forward. Bryan Jones looks like he could be a strong contributor at point guard in the future but will likely only play if Pendergast’s injury keeps him out. Connor Huff, Chris Churchill, and Dean Brierly have all shown enough to play situationally, but will need some statement play this month to earn rotation minutes. For those three guys in particular, the deeper rotation against RPI will give them another opportunity to make their case, but coach Brown will likely solidify his rotation by the time NESCAC play rolls around, so opportunities to earn increased minutes are becoming sparse.

Regardless of result, today’s game will look very different from Middlebury’s loss to Stevenson on Friday. Stevenson was relentless in its defensive pressure, so much so that Jeff Brown said after the game that his team wasn’t able to reverse the ball around the perimeter. The Mustangs also essentially negated Middlebury’s transition game, both by crashing the offensive boards and getting second chance opportunities and also by tracking Middlebury exceptionally well in transition. St. Mary’s, on the other hand predominantly utilizes a 3-2 zone defensively that tat times the extend into the backcourt to provide three-quarter court pressure. Cabrini exploited St. Mary’s’ zone in many of the same ways Stevenson did to Middlebury, pulling down 15 offensive rebounds and outrebounding the Seahawks 41-27 in their win on Friday night.

Offensively the Seahawks are very polished and run a number of effective sets that get open looks for a variety of different players. Offensively they don’t look dissimilar from the past two Middlebury teams that relied on excellent offensive execution to score efficiently, if not at a break-neck pace. Middlebury does not want to play a half-court game with a St. Mary’s team that has more experience and has been more effective than the Panthers early in the season. Where Middlebury can exploit the Seahawks is on the boards and in transition, which Cabrini demonstrated Friday night. From the tape, Middlebury appears to be the more athletic of the two teams, which should give them a rebounding edge in a matchup of two susceptible teams in that area. The Panthers have played better defense than many—see our comments—seem to think, but they have not been able to close out defensive possessions by securing rebounds. In Friday’s loss, Stevenson shot 41.7 percent from the floor, a good mark by any defensive measure and one that would be far better if you consider only first-shot opportunities. In so far that rebounding is the final act of a defensive possession, Middlebury needs to improve defensively, but their base defense—and it was particularly notable when they played zone—was very effective.

On the offensive end, Middlebury needs to turn the ball over at a drastically lower rate. 25 turnovers doomed the Panthers as much as the 19 offensive rebounds they allowed and it remains somewhat remarkable that they had a chance to tie the game with 97 seconds left. Leadership, man.

To pull of the upset today, Middlebury needs to get out in transition and execute offensively, both of which can only be accomplished if Middlebury rebounds the ball effectively on the defensive end and doesn’t turn the ball over on offense. St. Mary’s has the size and polish to compete with anyone in the country, but I don’t think they will overpower Middlebury. They have the potential to be ruthlessly efficient on the offensive end and will undoubtedly take advantage of mistakes the Panthers make, but this game is more within Middlebury’s reach than the outlook of many Middlebury fans would suggest.

To Stevenson’s credit, they matched up incredibly well with Middlebury and executed a strong game plan Friday. St. Mary’s does not match up nearly as well and, given their approach defensively, cannot game plan as effectively for the Panthers as Stevenson did. Having Jensen available for this game would help tremendously—the Seahawks are led by 6’5”, 230-pound forward Brendan McFall, who is averaging 25 points per game this year—but with the exception of McFall, Middlebury matches up far better against St. Mary’s from a systematic point of view. Early in the year as the Panthers find their identity on both ends of the floor, playing two vastly different opponents like Stevenson and St. Mary’s will help Jeff Brown and his staff manage the team going forward. Don’t be surprised if today’s result and output from Middlebury looks very different from Friday.

Over the past five years, Middlebury basketball has been the picture of consistency, doing something that no other NESCAC team has done—gone undefeated in the lead up to NESCAC play, a stretch of 40 straight games without a loss. That streak ended Friday in the Panthers’ 80-69 loss to Stevenson. There has been a lot of talk—virtual talk … it hasn’t really caught on in the Proctor booth room yet—about Middlebury’s issues. Leadership has been a word that’s been thrown around a lot with many Middlebury posters concerned about an apparent lack of leadership or will from Middlebury on Friday. To me, this seems like a buzzword problem that has been exaggerated in the wake of the loss. If Joey Kizel makes the long three he attempted with 1:37 with the Panthers down 68-55 and Middlebury goes on to win, the narrative is of a resilient Panther team that saw younger players step up (dare I say into leadership roles) and steal a game in which the team underperformed. Now don’t get me wrong, with the exception of Hunter Merryman, Jake Brown and Jake Nidenberg, Middlebury played a brutally ugly game in just about all phases of the game. However, it seems impossibly early (not to mention incredibly reactionary) to worry about leadership. Joey Kizel often makes things look hard on the court and he rarely displays “good body language.” But Kizel is an exceptional leader—he has been the emotional heart of this team for the past three years—and it’s silly to question his leadership simply because his style is different from a Nolan Thompson or a Ben Rudin or whomever. Effective leadership comes in all different forms and is expressed differently by different people. Far more important than whether it appears effective from the outside is whether it is effective in the locker room and I haven’t seen or heard anything to suggest that the rest of the team has anything but the utmost confidence in Kizel. (I’ll get to his shooting problems in a moment.)

Losing, particularly in situations where you aren’t accustomed to losing early in the season, can raise premature questions. I would argue this concern over Middlebury’s leadership is such an example. This is a very inexperienced Panthers’ team that has two freshmen in its rotation as well as three sophomores who saw almost no playing time last season. Middlebury has also missed James Jensen, a versatile player on both ends of the floor, who is another team leader. And on that front, the impact of Albert Nascimento and Luis Alvarez—two seniors who won’t see very much playing time, but are respected voices in the locker room—should not be overlooked. Finally, during the preseason, Nate Bulluck was as vocal as any player we saw and organized the team and ran the offense at times, too. As fans we like to prescribe leadership roles to certain individuals on the floor who look and play the part. Some players, like Kizel, undoubtedly lead by example; but we should not discount the presence of those players whose impact is less noticeable and therefore visually reassuring.

Over the past five years (and more) Middlebury fans have had the incredible luxury of watching very polished basketball with no early season lapses. This team is not going to be those teams—and that’s a good thing. They likely won’t be as dominant against inferior competition and consistency could be a very real issue for much of the season, but I do believe, given what we’ve seen from Daley, Merryman, Brown and St. Amour, this team’s potential is as high as any Middlebury team I’ve watched and that they’re closer to realizing that potential than I thought before the season started.

So if leadership isn’t the problem, what is? I think it’s still too early to answer this question conclusively, or even confidently. But if I had to pinpoint my biggest concern, it’s consistency. Daley has demonstrated how good he can be, but can he stay out of foul trouble on the defensive end and be assertive enough on the offensive end? Is Merryman a potential All-NESCAC player with vastly improved defensive skills? Will St. Amour find his shooting stroke and give Middlebury another floor-spacing, can’t-be-helped-off offensive threat? Will Jake Brown continue to spark the team on both ends of the floor with his energy and playmaking? The play of those four guys and their ability to produce game-to-game on a consistent basis is the biggest question mark at this point.

You likely noticed that I didn’t include Joey Kizel’s shooting struggles among those questions. Through his first four games last year, Kizel was shooting 36 percent from the floor and 30 percent from beyond the arc—only slightly better numbers than what he has posted so far this season. Kizel has looked good in practice and over the course of his career has gotten better as the season goes on. If his offensive struggles carry over into NESCAC play, this will become an issue, but I think Kizel will figure it out sooner than later and return to his All-American caliber play. If you’re not convinced, ask yourself if there’s anyone else you’d rather have taking a big shot in the NESCAC (or even the country) and that should answer both your concerns about Joey’s shooting concerns and any leadership issues you think this team may have.

Stevenson went 16-10 a year ago and returns three of their top four scorers from the 2012-13 team in Christian Roberts (6’0” sophomore, #1), Alfonozo Hawkins (6’0” senior, #5) and Stefon McCray (6’6” senior, #21) who combined to score 41.5 points per game a season ago. Bolstering the returners are transfers Justin Kuntz, who led the team with 14 points in their season-opening win over Cairn, and Colby Giacubeno, who contributed 12 points off the bench. Fifteen different players played—12 of whom logged at least 9 minutes—for the Mustangs in their opener, in large part because they led 49-18 over Cairn at halftime. The combination of the blowout victory and the high number of transfers makes Stevenson an especially difficult team to assess from the box score. They do, however, appear improved from a 16-win team a year ago, which won both of its games at the Hoopsville Classic, boasting wins over Alvernia and twice beat Lebanon Valley, their one common opponent with Middlebury last year.

Stevenson is likely an underrated team going into this tournament, with all the necessary motivation of winning on their home floor in what is as close to a nationally broadcasted D-III tournament as there is. James Jensen, who was cleared yesterday, should be available to play, giving Middlebury a versatile defender who could check the 6’6” Stefon McCray. On the offensive end of the floor, scoring inside will once again be a key for the Panthers as Stevenson boasts just one player (Kuntz) 6’7” or taller. Through three games this year, Matt Daley and Jack Roberts have been effective attacking smaller lineups—Daley, in particular, looking unguardable at times with a single defender working against him. Dylan Sinnickson, who has been one of the Panthers’ most effective outside scorers thus far, likely won’t be available this weekend, putting greater onus on Middlebury’s big men to produce inside. On the perimeter, the Panthers will have to do a far better job shooting the ball as Joey Kizel and Matt St. Amour have struggled to find their shooting range early in the season. The return of Jake Brown may create better spacing on the floor, allowing Kizel to play off the ball increasingly. Against an undersized Stevenson team, we might see a backcourt of Brown, Kizel and St. Amour for the first time this season.

Middlebury should escape this game with a victory, but Stevenson is a relatively veteran team that is playing at home against a team that has made long road trips on consecutive weekends. Given our expectations for Middlebury, we think they should pass another early season test tonight, but they will need to play a more complete game than they have against their past two opponents.

Matt Daley scored 24 points and grabbed 11 rebounds in Middlebury’s 81-71 win over Alvernia yesterday. A lot of credit should go to Jeff Brown for choosing the right starting lineup in this game, which seemed like an impossible task hours ago. Neither Jeff nor I had Matt St. Amour or Matt Daley in our first-game starting lineups, despite our excitement about their potential. If Daley doesn’t start against Alvernia, Middlebury very well could have lost the game. Daley scored 6 of Middlebury’s first 8 points and 10 of the team’s first 21 and the team stagnated offensively when he sat. And it wasn’t purely an offense thing either as Daley held his own on the defensive end, collecting 5 defensive rebounds and blocking a shot, while staying out of foul trouble. To further that sentiment, the sophomore forward boasted a +/- of +21 in a 10-point win and never left the game for the bench with the team in a worse place than when he entered the game. St. Amour, meanwhile, was not as effective, but finished with 10 points on 3-10 shooting in a solid debut as only the fifth freshman to start the opening game of the season during Jeff Brown’s tenure. And while St. Amour struggled at times, he was also a member of Middlebury’s most effective lineup, which included Kizel, St. Amour, Merryman, Daley and Roberts.

Part of the reason that lineup had as much success as it did was Alvernia’s inability to deal with Middlebury’s length inside. The same likely won’t be true of Barcuh, which boasts a bigger lineup that should better matchup with Middlebury’s size inside and do a better job keeping the Panthers off the glass. (Though for good measure, Franklin & Marshall held a +8 rebounding advantage over the Bearcats and collected 13 offensive rebounds in the game.) For Middlebury, there’s a relatively simple solution to this: make shots and finish inside. The Panthers grabbed 22 offensive rebounds against Alvernia, in large part because they shot just 43 percent as a team. If Middlebury can make more shots, particularly around the basket, where they missed a number of bunnies and putbacks, they shouldn’t have too much trouble with Baruch, which—if their scoring tendencies are any indicator—will likely try to slow down Middlebury’s tempo and limit turnovers and fastbreak opportunities to a minimum.

The Bearcats had pretty balanced in scoring in 2012, with no player averaging more than 10.4 points per game and return four of their top five scorers from a season ago. They also got an infusion of talent through the transfer window: Abraham Akanmu, a junior who played his first two seasons at Queens College, led the Bearcats with 13 points in the season opener; Joshua Gener, meanwhile, is a 6’7” forward/center who didn’t see game action for the Bearcats yesterday, but bolsters their front court rotation. In yesterday’s victory over Franklin & Marshall—only the Diplomats’ second home loss over the past three seasons—Baruch started a small backcourt of three guards (5’11”, 5’11”, 6’2”) and then a 6’6” forward in senior Joshua Vital (9.8 ppg, 6.6 rpg, 46% shooting in 2012-13) and 6’8” center Brian McMahon, a junior who averaged 5.8 points per game last season, who added 6 points and 4 blocks in a Jack Roberts type line. The two players to keep an eye on off the bench for the Bearcats are Matas Rascius, a 6’7” forward from Lithuania, who scored 9 points in just 13 minutes off the bench yesterday, and 5’9” senior Matt Feldman, who played starter minutes in a reserve role.

From the roster alone (and it’s always dangerous to assume too much from the roster alone) Baruch seems to have the size to contend with Middlebury’s bigs, and enough speed in the backcourt to make life difficult for Kizel and St. Amour in the backcourt. Jake Brown, who appears to be sitting out the tournament altogether, would be particularly helpful in this matchup. In his absence, Kizel and the trio of St. Amour, Pendergast and Bullcuk, in particular, will have to take care of the ball and not allow Baruch, a team that scored just 70.6 points per game last year on 43/33/73 splits to get easy looks off turnovers. Though unranked, Baruch should provide Middlebury with another good early season test, especially on the defensive end where they will likely harass the Panthers and apply more pressure than Alvernia did yesterday. If Middlebury executes and gets balanced play from their backcourt and bigs, the Panthers’ talent and depth should help them pull away from the Bearcats.