This week wasn’t competitive as Jeff took a 3-1 lead overall with a 179.9 to 104.9 thrashing. A combination of great production from Jeff’s running backs and poor roster decisions on my part created the lopsided differential. While the result was pretty consistent across the board, a few performances here and there stood out in particular.

Best Performances of the Week:
1) Colby WR Luke Duncklee: Duncklee is having a NESCAC-Player-of-the-Year caliber season and Week 4 was no exception as the NESCAC’s Percy Harvin had 6 catches for 98 yards and a touchdown, a week ago. Duncklee has caught 24 passes this season, good for third in the NESCAC and almost a third of his team’s total receptions. It’s fun to think about the kind of numbers Duncklee might produce playing with a Mac Foote or …

2) Wesleyan QB Jesse Warren: Warren has been the conference’s best quarterback through four games, and it’s not even close right now. Warren was ruthlessly efficient again in the Cardinals’ 35-7 win over Bates, completing 17 of 20 pass attempts for 190 yards and 3 touchdowns. He’s not throwing the ball all over the yard, but when he drops back to pass, he makes plays and doesn’t turn the ball over. It must be said that he receives a fair amount of help from his backfield mate …

3) Wesleyan RB Kyle Gibson: Gibson has been electric this season, averaging an eye-popping 8.4 yards per carry. In fact, no running back (among qualified leaders) has approached that mark over a full season since the NESCAC started archiving statistic leaders in 2002. That season, Williams sophomore Tim Crawley averaged 7.0 yards per carry, which no runner has topped since then. At 8.4 yards a tote, Gibson is in unchartered waters. He’s no water bug, though. That distinction is reserved for …

4) Middlebury RB Joey Zelkowitz: Zelkowitz wreaked havoc last week, lining up all over the formation and running by, around and, in a couple of cases, through the Ephs. If Ducnklee is the conference’s Percy Harvin, Zelkowitz is the NESCAC’s Darren Sproles. He gives the Panthers a weapon out of the backfield they haven’t had in the four years we’ve been covering the team and should only get better over the second half of the season. The Middlebury coaching staff has been cautious with his play count, which should keep him fresh and healthy over the final four games of the season. He is, in our view, the leading offensive candidate for NESCAC Rookie of the Year.

	Jeff			Damon
QB	Warren	17.6	QB	Foote	16.48
QB	Lippe	8.8	QB	Doll	-3.72
RB	Drew	11.4	RB	Zelkowitz	18.4
RB	Donnarumma	18.4	RB	Curit	5.9
RB	Bunker	10.5	RB	Scyocurka	6
RB	Gibson	19.2	RB	Crick	0
WR	Rankowitz	1.3	WR	O’Malley	16.5
WR	Jensen	8.6	WR	Minno	1.8
WR	Jones	9.9	WR	Hurwitz	12.6
WR	Duncklee	18.6	WR	Gonzalez	5.6
WR	Davis	2.2	WR	Fabien	1.5
WR	Payton	8.9	WR	Way	6.3
TE	Hughes	10.3	TE	Kenyon	0
TE	Budness	10.2	TE	Sadik-Khan	6.6
D/ST	Amherst	14	D/ST	Trinity	12
D/ST	Bowdoin	8	D/ST	Middlebury	2
K	Nwosu	2	K	Mallock	-3
		179.9			104.96
Bench	Ciero	12.4	Bench	Stannell	0
Bench	Doherty	2.6	Bench	Brady	3.9

The NESCAC Kicking Carousel

Unsurprisingly, I was active on the waiver wire this week, dropping Jack Doll (my love for this Tufts team only extends so far) and Nick Kenyon who has been quieter than expected in a pass-heavy Jumbos offense. In large part, my belated realization that Alex Way is a tight end, not a receiver (where he had been designated previously on my team) created the impetus for the Kenyon decision, though I likely would have made the same move in favor of Xander Frey, had Way not been tight end eligible. Another brilliant move on my part. I also added Trevor Wheeler (//stick to the rivers and the lakes that you’re used to) who appears finally healthy and the deep threat that Middlebury lacked earlier this season.

I thought my final roster move was going to be dropping Joe Mallock (what has happened to him?) for Wesleyan kicker Sebastian Aguirre. That move triggered a fun back-and-forth, however, as Jeff dropped Phil Nwosu to pick up Mallock and in turn I dropped Aguirre in favor of Nwosu. I haven’t outmaneuvered Jeff many times this year, but in this case I essentially traded Mallock (1-3 FG, 2-5 PAT) for Nwosu (6-6 FG, 11-12 PAT). It’s a small victory, to be certain, but one that I’ll take all the same.

Here’s the full list of our waiver-wire transactions from the week:

DAMON	Add TREVOR WHEELER Drop NICK KENYON	JEFF	Add COLBY D/ST Drop AMHERST D/ST
DAMON	Add ZACH TRAUSE Drop CHANCE BRADY	JEFF	Add WILLIAMS D/ST Drop BOWDOIN D/ST
DAMON	Add ADAM MARSKE Drop JACK DOLL
DAMON	Add SEBASTIAN AGUIRRE Drop JOE MALLOCK	JEFF	Add JOE MALLCOK Drop PHIL NWOSU
DAMON	Add PHIL NWOSU Drop SEBASTIAN AGUIRRE

Down 3-1, I cannot afford to lose this week. Here’s hoping He Could Go Hatheway can take down the Bored Jeffs.

Editors’ Note: We are excited to announce that a group of writers from around the NESCAC, led by Joe MacDonald (Middlebury) and Adam Lamont (Bowdoin), will be contributing to the blog for the remainder of the football season and hopefully beyond. This post was written by Lamont, a former member of the Bowdoin football team. The plan is to give readers an internal perspective of other programs in the conference, while maintaining our in-depth coverage of Middlebury football and basketball. We hope you enjoy and, as always, thank you for your continued readership and support.

Opening Statement: Bowdoin started the game with the offense working better than at any other time in the last two years. The key was big plays with the opening touchdown only a minute and a half into the game coming off a play action pass to Dan Barone for a 48-yard score. The play far surpassed the previous long for a touchdown for Bowdoin this year, but only a few minutes later senior back Zach Donnarumma broke free for a 51 yard touchdown. Bowdoin then extended the lead to 21-0 on a 2-yard pass to Mike English with 5:36 left in the second.

No Knockout: At that point it looked like the Polar Bears were en route to a convincing and easy win. Things didn’t go quite as planned as Hamilton answered quickly to close to within two touchdowns. The rest of the day the Bowdoin offense struggled to create any big plays and Hamilton crawled its way back into the game with two long touchdown drives in the second half. An early Hamilton missed field goal, however, played a huge role down the stretch as—trailing by six—the Continentals needed a touchdown to win the game at the end instead of a field goal to tie. The Polar Bears’ inability to put the game away shows once again that, while this Bowdoin team is capable of playing very well for stretches, it has trouble sustaining that level of play for an entire game.

Saturday, October 12, 1:30pm

Bob Ritter had never beaten Williams before last year’s 30-13 demolishing of the Ephs in Williamstown dropping Williams to a previously unimaginable 1-3 record. Well, a year later the Ephs are in even worse shape, traveling to Youngman Field 0-3 and attempting to avoid their first 0-4 start since 1987. Just how bad are things for Williams? They’ve scored all of four offensive touchdowns this year, good for an average of just 10.3 points per game, edging only Bowdoin and Hamilton in that category.

The Ephs have been simply awful at the quarterback position, where Tom Murphy and Adam Marske have combined to throw 9 interceptions and just one touchdown. Perhaps even more perplexing, Williams has been unable to develop any kind of running game, rushing for an average of 74 yards per game on 2.3 yards per carry, the worst mark in the conference. Only Middlebury averages fewer rushing yards per game than Williams.

And speaking of Middlebury, things have hardly been smooth offensively for the Panthers. The offense has yet to really establish an identity—and I’m talking about something more substantial than a passing offense—and after an historic 2012, 2013 looks bleak by comparison. The Panthers have racked up the yards—more than 450 of them per game, to be precise—but have failed to finish drives, particularly in the red zone, where the team’s inability to run the ball has been most stark. Only Wesleyan has accumulated more red zone drives than Middlebury this year, but only Tufts and Bowdoin have scored touchdowns at a lower rate in the red zone than the Panthers. While Middlebury was able to mask many of its offensive issues against Bowdoin and Colby, they were exploited by Amherst last week as Middlebury’s inability to capitalize on red zone opportunities turned the Panthers’ strong start into a Lord Jeffs rout.

Where Middlebury’s offense has faltered, however, the defense has shined. Even in last week’s 37-16 loss, the defense was impressive, forcing 6 three-and-outs from the Lord Jeffs, all the while having to account for tilted field position, the product of five turnovers and 146 yards of interception returns by the Amherst defense. The statistics may not make a strong case, but the Middlebury defense belongs among the conference’s elite units.

The same cannot be said about Williams, who have been gashed on the ground, surrendering more than 179 yards per game to opposing runners. Granted, the numbers deserve some qualification as the Ephs have already played two of the NESCAC’s three best ground games in Bates and Trinity as well as a capable Colby team with multiple backfield threats. The same qualification in reverse must be applied to Williams’ artificially stingy pass defense, which has allowed a NESCAC-low 139 yards per game through the air. Perhaps a better measure of Williams’ pass defense is the 5.9 yards per attempt allowed, which is only slightly lower than the Middlebury offense’s 6.2 yards per attempt, the fourth-best mark in the conference.

Needless to say, neither team enters this game playing very good football, which makes evaluating both—and particularly Williams—that much more difficult.

Three Questions

1) Will Mac Foote (and the offense) find his 2012 form?
80 percent of Mac Foote is better than any other NESCAC quarterback, and so far that’s what we’ve seen from the 2012 NESCAC Player of the Year. Jeff and I discussed this on our radio show last weekend, but Mac—and quarterbacks in general—probably receive too much credit when things go well and too much blame when they go poorly. Without going back and analyzing tape, it’s impossible to know whether the offense’s struggles stem from poor protection, missed reads by the quarterback, sloppy rote running by wide receivers or play calling woes from the coaching staff. In the case of the 2013 Panthers, it has likely been a combination of all of these things. So while it’s not quite fair to place it all on Mac’s shoulders, he is the most obvious indication of how the entire offense is playing, and thus far it has been running at around 80 percent. As we’ve already highlighted, the biggest area of concern are the struggles in the red zone.

2) Can Williams develop any offensive rhythm against Middlebury?
Consider us skeptical. The Middlebury defense is enjoying a stellar season and has been tough against both the rush and the pass. Adding to the intrigue here is whether Marske or Murphy or someone else will start. The Panthers played a central role in Marske’s benching last season, intercepting the then-junior three times. Murphy, however, has hardly been an improvement, completing less than 50 percent of his passes and throwing 6 interceptions. In the running game, the Ephs boast an experienced group of ball-carriers, led by Alex Scyocurka, which has made their struggles to run the ball all the more baffling. Undoubtedly teams have been stacking eight and nine men in the box and daring the Ephs to throw the ball, but even so, Scyocurka has All-NESCAC talent.

3) Will the Ephs get pressure on Foote?
As Amherst demostrated a week ago, disrupting the passing game can send the Middlebury offense into a tailspin. Foote was forced to make his throws under pressure and the results were ugly. Williams has one of the more talented defensive lines in the conference and if they pull off the upset, this unit will lead the charge defensively. Adam Datema, Ernest Higginbotham, and James Howe are the big men in the middle, and each has 19 tackles in the first three games. Combined, the trio has two sacks and 7.5 tackles for a loss. Neutralizing their impact will be the focus for Middlebury’s offensive line, which could be without senior center Ben Green for a second consecutive week.

Middlebury Players to watch
Cornerback Nate Leedy is already a star three games into his career, and his physical style of play will be a major asset against the run-first Ephs… Wide receiver Brendan Rankowitz has been a model of consistency in the otherwise unsteady Middlebury offense, and there is no reason for his role not to continue to increase… Running back Joey Zelkowitz was injured during the Amherst loss but should be ready to go and could be part of the answer to Middlebury’s red zone woes… Linebacker Zach Faber leads the team with three tackles for a loss and should play a big role in slowing Scyocurka and company.

Final Word
If Williams is going to win this game, it will need big games from Scyocurka and the defensive line. We expect the Middlebury defense to load the box and stifle drives with its now-trademark tackling discipline, and the offense to look for quick releases to Rankowitz and Zelkowitz on early downs. In two career matchups against the Ephs, Mac Foote has averaged 420 passing yards per game, to go along with six touchdowns and one interception. He will stake the Panthers an early lead and Aaron Kelton’s squad lacks the offensive ability to come back.

Middlebury 30, Williams 10

Tune in to our broadcast on WRMC (listen online here or here), where coverage will start at 1:15. We will be joined at halftime by Middlebury College President Ron Liebowitz.

After splitting the first two weeks, I took Week 3 to give me a 2-1 season lead. Below is the scoreboard, followed by some quick thoughts and our weekly transactions. Damon will be posting a Williams preview by tomorrow morning.

QB	Warren	12.2	QB	Foote	14.1
QB	Ciero	0	QB	Doll	6.4
RB	Drew	19.5	RB	Stannell	0
RB	Donnarumma	19.6	RB	Curit	14.4
RB	Bunker	17.7	RB	Scyocurka	14.2
RB	Gibson	17	RB	Crick	2.2
WR	Rankowitz	14	WR	O’Malley	19.7
WR	Jensen	5.7	WR	Minno	14.4
WR	Jones	7.7	WR	Hurwitz	2.7
WR	Duncklee	1.3	WR	Ragone	2.8
WR	Davis	1.4	WR	Fabien	6.9
WR	Payton	2.3	WR	Way	1.9
TE	Hughes	0.8	TE	Kenyon	2.2
TE	Budness	14	TE	Sadik-Khan	12.1
D/ST	Bates	12	D/ST	Trinity	8
D/ST	Bowdoin	10	D/ST	Middlebury D/ST	-1
K	Donahue	1	K	Mallock	5
		156.2			126
Bench	Adrinka	10.5	Bench	Cooleen	2.9
Bench	Doherty	7.1	Bench	Zelkowitz	8.2

One of the major storylines this week was the disappearance of James Stannell, Hamilton’s best player and the conference leader in all-purpose yards last season. His status going forward will have major fantasy implications, and could be fatal to Hamilton’s hopes of picking up a win this season. Justin Ciero, Colby’s starting quarterback, was replaced after a poor performance, but we would be very surprised if he loses the starting job. He is one of the better quarterbacks in the league. Middlebury’s top four pass-catchers — Minno, Sadik-Khan, Zelkowitz, and Rankowitz — are the top four in the league in both catches and receiving yards.

Damon ADDS Rico Gonzalez, Hamilton WR/RB*; DROPS Jack Cooleen, Tufts WR
Jeff ADDS Amherst D/ST; DROPS Bates D/ST
Damon ADDS Chance Brady, Tufts WR; DROPS Brian Ragone, Amherst WR
Jeff ADDS Max Lippe, Amherst QB; DROPS Kenny Adrinka, Amherst RB
Jeff ADDS Phil Nwosu, Amherst K; DROPS Charlie Donahue, Bates K

*Listed at WR but getting reps as the starting RB, Gonzalez will have dual eligibility for now.