For easy navigation, here are the links to each segment of our 2013 NESCAC football preview:

Intro and Projected Standings
Team-by-team Conference Preview
All-NESCAC First and Second Teams
Middlebury Offense
Middlebury Defense
Prop Bets

Saturday, September 20, 2013: Middlebury at Bowdoin, 1pm

Middlebury’s 2013 season is hours away. Here is our Bowdoin team summary, two matchups to watch, and our key to the game:

2012 record: 1-7
2012 scoring offense: 11.0 ppg (10th)
2012 scoring defense: 22.5 ppg (7th)
Our 2013 projected record: 1-7 (win vs. Hamilton)

Griffin Cardew, Joe Cleary, and Brian Glazewski are three of the best linebackers in the league and are the best thing going for the Polar Bears. They combined for 195 tackles in 2012. The defensive line and secondary are not as strong. Offensively, running back Zach Donnarumma leads the way; he averaged 92 yards in the six games he played last year. Quarterback remains a question and an open competition, which suggests that nobody should inspire confidence, though a repeat of last year’s horrendous 3 touchdown, 19 interception passing game would be surprising. David Black is an elusive underneath receiver who is likely to lead the team in targets and receptions.

Matchup to watch: Tim Patricia vs. Zach Donnarumma
Last year’s NESCAC Rookie of the Year, Patricia, has a tough task before him in Donnarumma, a 5’9″ tailback who averaged 93 yards per game (3rd in the conference) last season. Patricia will take over a defense this season that misses former defensive cogs John Wiet and Keegan Ashley. Patricia should hope to keep Donnarumma around the 3.7 yards per carry he averaged last season, as Middlebury’s front seven will be focused on stopping the run. Expect safety Jared Onouye to join Patricia in the box early and often, daring Bowdoin to attack Middlebury’s unproven corners.

Matchup to watch: Bowdoin front seven vs. Middlebury offensive line
Mac Foote thrives when his receivers have time to reach the second level, and that was a luxury to which we were all accustomed last season. With the graduation of Ryan Moores, Harris Huguenard, and Ling Zhou, Middlebury’s offensive line is a major question mark and will be tested against Bowdoin. Griffin Cardew, Joe Cleary, Brian Glazewski, and Tom Wells are all high-caliber players who make Bowdoin’s front seven one of the best in the league. Their ability to stop the run and rush the passer will spell major problems for the Middlebury offense if the line play is mediocre. If Mac Foote has to make quick reads and utilize underneath routes, it might put the new wide receivers in a position that does not suit their strengths. If Bowdoin disrupts the offense at the line of scrimmage, Middlebury’s line play be one of the major concerns to watch all season.

Key to the game: Win the turnover battle
This is a game the Panthers should win, and comfortably. The offense is still one of the best in the league, and the defense should have another strong year. The recipe for the Polar Bears will be to fluster the offense by getting after the passer by bringing pressure and taking some chances in the defensive secondary, while maintaining possession on offense and wearing down the Middlebury defense with long, slow drives by featuring Donnarumma heavily. Foote needs to maintain composure and perspective if the offensive line struggles, or if the wide receivers are not on the same page with him early. Last year, Middlebury set the tone against Bowdoin with two first quarter interceptions, while a third quarter fumble was the only major blemish for the offense. If the defense shows up with the same ballhawking mentality as a year ago and Foote does not force the issue offensively, Middlebury should pull away by the second half.

Prediction: Middlebury 24, Bowdoin 7

Damon and I made a series of prop bets in anticipation of the upcoming season:

Trinity: 7.5 wins
Damon: Under
They should be favorites in every game but are not so far ahead of the competition that the odds favor an undefeated season.
Jeff: Under
8-0 is hard to do; taking the under here is gambling 101.

Evan Bunker: 150 rushing yards per game
Damon: Over
Bunker will get more carries this year but will also face more eight-man fronts, so I expect about the same as last season (159 ypg).
Jeff: Over
One bad game could throw this off but he has been incredibly consistent over his career.

Mac Foote: 24 pass TD
Damon: Over
He’s still Middlebury’s only viable scoring option.
Jeff: Under
With no Driscoll or Chapman, the red zone offense will suffer.

Matthew Minno: 50 catches
Damon: Over
He’s not Zach Driscoll but can fill in a similar role as a big primary target for Mac Foote.
Jeff: Under
The receiver depth chart is too much if an unknown at this point.

Trinity backfield: 21 total touchdowns
Damon: Over
The backfield will be an even bigger focal point this year, and Budness and Crick are two of the best receiving backs in the conference as well.
Jeff: Under
I’m a believer in Henry Foye and a passing offense that will take advantage of defensive gameplans aimed at stopping the run.

Ben Crick: 6.5 yards per carry
Damon: Under
I think he will get more carries this year, which hurts his chances of maintaining such an impressive per carry rate.
Jeff: Under
Exactly. I’m guessing Crick gets another 3-4 carries per game this season, which likely means a lower average.

Ladarius Drew + Kyle Gibson: 1150 rushing yards
Damon: Over
They form the second most dynamic running back duo in the NESCAC.
Jeff: Under
Wesleyan is not headed in the right direction this season.

Andrew Kukesh: 6 INT
Damon: Under
Every quarterback will identify Kukesh at the line of scrimmage and avoid him.
Jeff: Over
NESCAC quarterbacks aren’t that good, and Kukesh is.

Nik Powers: 7 sacks
Damon: Over
A one of a kind type rusher who will see more snaps this season
Jeff: Over
Young athletic pass rushers make big strides from year to year as their arsenal of rushing moves expands.

Tim Patricia: 90 total tackles
Damon: Over
He might already be the conference’s premier middle linebacker, and more rushers will reach the second level against Middlebury this year.
Jeff: Under
11 tackles per game is difficult to sustain.

James Stanell: 40% of Hamilton’s total offense
Damon: Over
I like him at least 40% more than anyone else on Hamilton.
Jeff: Over
I don’t think your math lines up, but I agree with the sentiment.

Luke Duncklee: 1.5 games 100 Rec yards
Damon: Under
Too many things have to go right for him to get 100 yards receiving.
Jeff: Over
I’ll always be a Duncklee believer; one of the most dynamic players in the conference.

Tufts: 1.5 wins
Damon: Over
After a couple strong recruiting classes, Tufts is ready to take a big step forward.
Jeff: Under
Tough schedule keeps them at one, but they are no longer the worst team in the league.

Conference receiving yards leader:
Damon: Brendan Rankowitz
His familiarity with Foote will put him at the top of the best passing attack in the NESCAC.
Jeff: Jake O’Malley
Probably the best wide receiver in the league, but whichever receiver emerges as the clear-cut #1 in Middlebury will likely surpass him. I’m just not sure that will be Rankowitz.

Conference leading tackler
Damon: Patricia
The game will slow down even more for Patricia in year 2.
Jeff: Griffin Cardew
Among other things (12 more tackles last season), Cardew benefits from playing on a worse team that faces more runs.

2nd most passing yards (behind Foote)
Damon: Jack Doll
Coach Civetti is committed to a passing offense, and Doll won the job last season before going down with an injury.
Jeff: Henry Foye
Trinity might not miss Ryan Burgess for long.

Bold prediction
Damon: Tufts’ Jack Cooleen will be the best all-around receiver in the NESCAC.
Jeff: Trinity’s Brett Cde Baca will win defensive player of the year in a landslide.

2012 Recap

The offense was littered with all-conference players, but the biggest difference between the .500 2011 season and a one-loss season in 2012 was the transformation of the defense under coordinator Doug Mandigo. The unit jumped from the worst scoring defense in the conference, allowing over 31 points per game in 2011, to the third-best unit in the NESCAC by that standard, allowing just 18.6 points per game in 2012. Middlebury’s leap came largely as a result of improved tackling, resulting in far fewer big plays allowed. With the exception of a significant regression against Trinity, the Panthers boasted an elite defense in 2012. There are as many, if not more holes to fill on the defensive side of the ball, as there are on offense and the depth of Middlebury’s defensive line and its unproven corners will be tested early this season. How those units respond will be the difference between an elite defense and a regression towards a middling group.

Key Defensive Players

Bryant Adams: Adams, who has contributed since his freshman year, returns as the most experienced player on a defensive line with apparently little depth. At 6’2’’ and 267 pounds Adams is easily the Panthers’ biggest defensive lineman and will have to be a force at the line of scrimmage to clear lanes for Middlebury’s linebacking corps. Adams was disruptive at times last season, totaling 24 tackles, including 1.5 for losses and demonstrated his athleticism on an early season interception. Nick Burdeau and Jack Crowell return, but a line that featured three senior starters a year ago, in Jimmy Tilson, Keegan Ashley and Doug Rogers—when healthy—is a question mark this season. Adams will need to stay healthy and eat space and shed blocks to successfully anchor the line. Playing a thankless position statistically, the tackle breakdown of the linebackers versus the secondary will be the best measure of Adams’ and the defensive line’s success this season. If they can demand double teams and keep blockers out of the second level, the unit will have done its job.

Tim Patricia: There are few defensive players in the NESCAC more exciting than Patricia, who appears to be the conference’s Luke Kuechly, a sideline-to-sideline middle linebacker with great instincts and unrivaled tackling abilities. In 2012, as the Rookie of the Year in the NESCAC, Patricia totaled 85 tackles, the second most in the conference, and five tackles for a loss. He is a gap-closing, tackling machine who has already assumed the leadership mantle on defense. If the line in front of him opens lanes for him and the linebacking corps, Patricia could challenge the century mark for tackles and have close to double digit tackles for a loss. One area of his game that remains unproven is his ability to drop back in coverage. Unproven mostly because it wasn’t something we saw all that much from him in 2012 when he had one pass breakup and an acrobatic, diving interception on a tremendous defensive read. Whether Patricia drops into coverage more this season is something to watch, particularly with the team’s lack of depth in the secondary. Regardless of what Patricia is asked to do, however, there is little doubt that he will do it at a high level.

Matthew Crimmins: Crimmins was the unheralded star of the linebacking corps in 2012, when he was overshadowed by the all-conference level play of John Wiet and Patricia. While Crimmins didn’t accumulate the raw numbers that his linebacking mates did, he made numerous game-altering plays in 2012 with three forced fumbles and a blocked kick. Crimmins will need to fill in more consistently against the run this year, but his playmaking ability around the ball will be integral for a defense that only totaled seven sacks in 2012, the second fewest in the NESCAC. The Panthers were unable to generate any pressure in the pocket with their front four in 2012 and if Mandigo elects to bring more pressure this season, Crimmins would be at the top of the list.

Jared Onouye: Onouye is another playmaker on the defensive side of the ball, breaking up four passes and completing the most memorable play of the 2012 season when he took a lateral from John Wiet after a fumble recovery in the final game of the season and returned it for a touchdown. Onouye totaled 49 tackles last season and found a rhythm as a hard-hitting, but fundamentally-sound player after struggling with inconsistencies as a tackler earlier in his career. No player has benefited more, it seems, from the coaching of Mandigo, a defensive back in his day, than Onouye, who is poised to have a breakout senior season and should earn a spot on one of the All-NESCAC teams by season’s end.

Other Key Contributors

Matthew Benedict will be a name that NESCAC fans learn this year, though they should have last year. In 2012 Benedict led all defensive backs with 59 tackles as a sophomore, while also breaking up four passes. In a deep secondary that included ballhawks Dan Kenerson and Joel Blockowicz, as well as the aforementioned Onouye, Benedict went under appreciated as a key cog in Middlebury’s secondary last year. Playing alongside Onouye at the safety position, Benedict will continue to make plays this year and be better recognized for his efforts. On the defensive line Nick Burdeau and Jack Crowell return. The pair combined for 32 tackles in 2012, including 5.5 tackles for a loss. Behind them, linebacker Zach Faber should return after missing most of the 2012 season with injury. As a sophomore in 2011, Faber played in seven games and made 20 tackles. The Panthers will also receive a tremendous special teams boast with the return of specialist Mike Dola who also returns after missing the entire 2012 season with an injury. Dola is a strong-legged kicker and a player the coaching staff was excited about as freshman. If he stays healthy, Dola could make a significant special teams impact, primarily as a placekicker, but also as a punter.

Predictions and Analysis

Middlebury has made drastic improvements each season under the tutelage of Doug Mandigo, who will have more pieces to work with, but also more holes to fill. By far the biggest positional question mark defensively is at cornerback, which transitioned from a position of strength in 2012 to a complete unknown in 2013 with the graduation of Dan Kenerson and the absence of Joel Blockowicz (studying abroad). Again, the Panthers are fortunate that the position in question coincides with one of their two best position coaches. Mandigo will need to coach whichever players slide into those roles as the season progresses, but he has demonstrated his ability to take unproven players and effectively plug them into starting roles from day one. One need look no further than Tim Patricia for proof. What his second act holds in store will be immensely fun to watch. Will there be a Patricia-like player in the secondary this year? Might it be Matt Benedict who emerges and a difference-maker in the secondary? The answers to these questions will be answered shortly.

2012 Recap

Behind the NESCAC’s best offensive line and on the arm of the most prolific passer in conference history, Middlebury ended a run of consecutive 4-4 seasons with a 7-1, NESCAC-runner up finish in 2012. Mac Foote and Zach Driscoll shattered the program record books and set four NESCAC single-season records together between the pair, narrowly missing on numerous more. Billy Chapman, meanwhile, had likely the greatest season for a tight end in NESCAC history, earning D3football.com second-team All-American honors for his play. Ryan Moores anchored an offensive line that was second to none in pass protection, allowing just five sacks over the team’s 423 dropbacks. And Middlebury came a blowout loss at Trinity away from claiming their first NESCAC title since 2007. That was last year though, and the 2013 Panthers have a new set of objectives—and obstacles—on offense to consider. We begin with the offense and will wrap things up in a second post on the defense and the keys to the 2013 season.

Key Offensive Players

Mac Foote: The reigning NESCAC Offensive Player of the Year and USA Football Network Preseason All-American returns for his senior season. A year after setting virtually every single-season NESCAC passing record, Foote will be relied upon to do even more in his senior season. While number 10 remains the conference’s best quarterback — and by a more than a couple of chain lengths — 2013 will be an even better barometer of his ability. An astounding 79 percent of Foote’s completions from a year ago went to players who are not on the roster for the 2013 season. A repeat of last season’s raw numbers seems unlikely, given the after-the-catch production of his receivers last year, but Foote has room to improve as a passer and could be more accurate in 2013 than he was in 2012. 30-plus touchdowns and 3,000 passing yards seem unlikely this season, but completing close to 70 percent of his passes should be a realistic goal for Foote. But as neither Zach Driscoll nor Billy Chapman will be running back through that tunnel, Foote will have to develop a quick rapport with his returning receivers.

Brendan Rankowitz: After an impressive sophomore campaign, Rankowitz will need to be more reliable this year as a junior. He’ll play the same role in the offense from a season ago, when he hauled in 27 receptions for 343 yards in just six games. As dynamic as Rankowitz was with the ball in his hands, he struggled to run precise routes, causing incompletions and drawing the ire of the coaching staff on more than one occasion. Without Driscoll playing across from him, Rankowitz needs to be a far more precise player in 2013. His talent is undeniable, but his potential will only be reached if Foote has total trust in him. Having said that, Rankowtiz’s floor this season are the numbers he produced in 2012. If he emerges this season, however, there’s no reason he shouldn’t lead the NESCAC in receiving yards and touchdown catches. A 60-catch, 800-plus yards receiving, seven-touchdown season should be well within reach for Rankowitz. The bigger question is whether he can put himself in the right position to turn a possibility into a reality.

Matt Minno: Minno, meanwhile, has the impossible task of stepping into the role of the departed Driscoll. While the sophomore certainly won’t be asked to do everything the team asked of number 11, Minno will need to provide Foote with a steady presence on the outside—something he demonstrated he could do in limited action last year. At 6’3 and 199 pounds, Minno provides Foote with a Driscoll-like target. While it’s unlikely that Foote will target Minno at the rate he did Driscoll, Minno will likely be asked to immediately assume a major role in the offense. Not a burner like Rankowitz, Minno offers a natural complement to 83 as a good route runner with a chance of developing into a go-to possession receiver this season for Foote. In two starts last year Minno’s results were somewhat mixed: a dominant eight-catch, 106-yard, three-touchdown performance against Hamilton and a two-catch 27-yard day in the season finale against Tufts. Which is more likely indicative of Minno’s 2013 averages? Given the number of targets he’s going to see, probably the former rather than the latter; projecting Minno for 50 catches, 500 yards and 5 touchdowns doesn’t seem unreasonable.

Jack Allard: Allard and Green are the only two returning starters from last year’s offensive line that allowed the fewest sacks in the NESCAC while attempting disproportionately more passes than the other nine NESCAC teams. Having carryover on the offensive line at center and left tackle will help orient the newcomers to the unit, as will Blake Shapskinsky who has filled in well as the sixth offensive lineman when injuries have arisen over the last two seasons. It will be interesting to see if Allard stays at left tackle this year or if he moves over to the right side of the line. While the left tackle has been made famous for its positional importance in the NFL, Middlebury used Ryan Moores—its most talented blocker—on the right side of the line. The reasoning for this is likely a combination of two or three factors. Either Foote’s propensity to get the ball out of his hands quickly and, more importantly, his effectiveness throwing while rolling to his right, meant he would take far fewer blindsight hits and would rely more heavily on the protection of his right tackle convinced the coaching staff moving Moores to the right side. Or, just as likely, the team felt Moores was better suited to the right side of the line and Allard to the left side. For Middlebury junkies, noting where Allard lines up today will be of interest.

Other Key Contributors

Matt Rea leads off this group. Rea, like Remi Ashkar and, to a lesser extent, Andrew Plumley before him, is an undersized back whose primary responsibility in the offense will be to provide a last line of protection for Foote in the backfield and as a receiver out of the backfield. Rea will also carry the ball, but his rushes will likely be limited to counters and inside draws in the shotgun or pistol formation. At 5’8’’ and 191 pounds, Rea will not shoulder a heavy workload and his 3.2 yards per carry on 85 career carries suggests it wouldn’t be an effective role for him to play. Even as a backup last season he caught 15 passes out of the backfield—something he will be asked to do even more this season. Daniel Finta, meanwhile, is another player to watch on the offensive line. Finta, listed last year as a 6’5’’, 233-pound tight end, has been converted into an offensive tackle, and is likely a leading candidate to start on the line or, at the very least, play the sixth offensive lineman role, and play when Middlebury goes to its jumbo package. Who else? There will be another receiver or two, and perhaps a tight end, who plays a big role in this offense. Regardless of the production of Rankowitz and Minno the two of them will not be able to replace the raw number of catches and yards the team lost with the graduation of Driscoll and Chapman. Consider, also, that third and fourth receivers from a season ago, Josh Amster and Harrison Goodkind, also will not be a part of the 2013 squad. The leading candidates for those opportunities are seniors Andrew Duval and Trevor Wheeler — a next-level athlete who has struggled to stay healthy. Making the transition to tight end, meanwhile, is William Sadik-Kahn who may not be asked to do as much in the passing game as Chapman and David Reed have over the last four years. How big a role tight end will play in the Bob Ritter’s offense is one of the major questions entering the 2013 season.

Predictions and Analysis

Despite the losses of of Driscoll, Chapman, Moores and Ashkar the offense should again vie for the league-best scoring mark. Foote will have to be a more accurate passer and likely deliver the ball faster than he did last season, but with his talent playing in Bob Ritter’s system, Middlebury will not struggle very often to score points. The Panthers also have one of the best offensive line coaches in the country in Joe Early, who should have an untested unit ready to protect Foote. However, one even greater concern than usual for the Middlebury offense this year will be balance. The Panthers ran the ball just 35 percent of the time in 2012 and that number could drop precipitously this season. Rea is not a proven runner, nor is he built to carry a substantial workload. Behind him, Ryan Hislop raises the same questions to an even greater degree. If Middlebury fails to run the ball effectively, it will put even more pressure on the offensive line to protect their quarterback against pass rushers that know Middlebury will have little choice but to air it out. Again, Ritter has proven his chops as a play-caller and the run-pass balance has never been pretty, but always effective. It will be something to monitor more closely this season, but with Foote in the backfield the importance of who lines up next to him is diminished.