Below is the recording of our NESCAC football discussion on the radio today. We discussed the Panthers win over Colby and some other topics around the league, including league-wide power rankings. Pardon the abrupt ending, as we went a few minutes over our allotted recording time.

Saturday, September 28, 2013: Colby at Middlebury, 1 pm

Middlebury has won three of the past four matchups between these teams by an average of 30 points. This is not just another Colby football team, however. The Mules demonstrated that with a resounding 31-8 beatdown of Williams last Saturday—a significant win, even if you’re one among the growing mass that believes Williams is ephed this year. (If you didn’t understand the last sentence, you should probably stop reading here. If you’re peeved because Eph (Eef) is constantly mispronounced and I played on that, then carry right on your way to the comments section below.)

While the  score was certainly definitive, how Colby arrived at the final margin might be even more impressive. The Mules paired a stout defensive line, allowing just 21 net yards rushing on 33 attempts, with an opportunistic secondary that intercepted the Ephs’ quarterbacks four times, including a 98-yard interception return for a touchdown seconds before halftime. In fact, the Colby defense totaled as many points as the Williams offense, adding a first-half safety to the pick six. And while scoring sequence is generally uninformative, Colby’s 31-0 lead until the midway point of the fourth quarter attests to the Mules’ dominance from wire to wire.

More immediately, what problems does Colby pose to Middlebury and how can the Panthers respond?

Keys to the Game

Can Middlebury control Colby at the line of scrimmage?
Given the trouble Williams had running the football, one would be wise to be suspicious of Middlebury’s effectiveness on the ground. The Mules also recorded two sacks against Williams and will likely challenge the Middlebury offensive line whether they’re attacking the line of scrimmage or stepping back in pass protection. On the other side of the ball, Middlebury’s front four has to hold its own at the line of scrimmage and continue to open holes for Tim Patricia and the rest of the linebacking corps to make plays. One of the bright spots of last week’s game was Jake Clapp, a sophomore 3-4 outside linebacker, who played with his head down at the line of scrimmage and helped his team limit Bowdoin to just four yards per carry. Even so, the Panthers will have their hands full containing Colby’s trio of explosive athletes: quarterback Thomas Ciero, running back Thomas Brewster and wide receiver (though really he should be designated simply as an athlete) Luke Duncklee. Duncklee didn’t play in last year’s game, but he ran for 73 yards and a touchdown on six carries as a freshman. Ciero, meanwhile, struggled to run or throw the ball against Middlebury a season ago. While he has undoubtedly progressed since then as a rusher and a passer, the Panthers appear to have a blueprint to contain Ciero. Brewster, a sophomore, was the most effective back for Colby in 2012-13, averaging nearly five yards per carry.

How Middlebury Responds
The Panthers have the personnel and talent to slow down the Colby rushing attack. Expect to see heavy dosages of single-high safety, zone looks with free safety Matt Benedict playing in centerfield and Jared Onouye crashing at the line of scrimmage playing like a fifth linebacker. Speaking of, Tim Patricia may act as a spy on Ciero, mirroring his movements on the opposite side of the line of scrimmage. Like so many games, the team that controls the line of scrimmage will likely grab the win. If Colby can open running lanes and keep Middlebury guessing with a mix of run and pass, they will be able to move the ball effectively and keep Mac Foote and company off the field. For the Panthers, there’s a pretty simple antidote to all this: score early and often. One of the keys to Middlebury’s 7-1 season a year ago was building leads that forced run-first teams into passing situations. While Colby is more balanced offensively, it’s hard to see Ciero throwing the ball 40 times in a victory.

Matchup to Watch: Justin Ciero vs. Tim Patricia
We highlighted this above, but Ciero’s performance will likely determine the game. If he is allowed to consistently make plays with both his legs and arm, Colby could shock Middlebury at home. If Ciero is forced to make plays from the pocket and look down the field, it could be a long day for the Mules. Either way this is an excellent early season test for Middlebury and a chance for Colby to announce that it should be considered among that second tier (behind Trinity) of teams.

The X-Factor: Joey Zelkowitz
If you didn’t see Zelkowitz play last week, the freshman running back could be special, particularly in this offense, which uses a combination of screen passes and shovel passes to combat pressure. Foote and head coach Bob Ritter both had high praise for Zelkowitz, who they feel is a different type of player than Middlebury has had out of its backfield in some time. Zelkowitz is a very elusive runner and has next-level quickness when he gets the ball in space. If the Colby front is overly-aggressive, expect to see Zelkowitz catch a steady diet of screens and shovel passes from Foote. And if that happens, watch out—Zelkowitz can break one.

The Final Word(s): Middlebury 21 – Colby 14
The Mules are likely still a year away from contending with the upper echelon of the NESCAC. They will, however, push Middlebury, which was sloppy offensively at times last week. The Panther defense, however, is likely the best it’s been in the past four years (which just means that it’s better than last year’s defense) and may challenge Trinity, Bates and others as the conference’s best. Of course, if Foote and company get off to a fast start at put Colby in a hole early, this game could get ugly.

As usual, Jeff and I will be broadcasting the game for WRMC. If you want to listen to our call, the link to the broadcast is here (click microphone icon).

This is my third year playing NESCAC fantasy football, the past two seasons of which Jeff and I have squared off head to head. Our league format is 2 QB, 4 RB, 6 WR, 2 TE, 2 D/ST, 1 K with 2 Bench spots. We had our draft a week ago, but decided to wait until after the first week to post the results. Below is the order in which we drafted and how our teams performed in Week 1. One thing to keep in mind when looking at the draft is positional limits. For example, I likely would have drafted Billy Sadik-Khan, one of the steals of the draft, earlier, had Jeff not already taken both of his tight ends. If this were even  a four-team league, the draft order would have changed quite significantly. Something to keep in mind when you see kickers being drafted ahead of quarterbacks.

Team	Player
Damon	Mac Foote (Middlebury QB)
Jeff	Evan Bunker (Trinity RB)
Jeff	LaDarius Drew (Wesleyan RB)
Damon	Ben Crick (Trinity RB)
Damon	James Stannell (Hamilton RB)
Jeff	Zach Donnarumma (Bowdoin RB)
Jeff	Brendan Rankowitz (Middlebury WR)
Damon	Ryan Curit (Bates RB)
Damon	Adam Scyocurka (Williams RB)
Jeff	AJ Jones (Trinity WR)
Jeff	Joe Jensen (Hamilton WR)
Damon	Jake O’Malley (Amherst WR)
Damon	Matt Minno (Middlebury WR)
Jeff	Tyler Jacobs (Amherst RB)
Jeff	Tim Laspada (Bates QB)
Damon	Kevin Davis (Bates WR)
Damon	Jack Cooleen (Tufts WR)
Jeff	Luke Duncklee (Colby WR)
Jeff	Kevin Hughes (Weseleyan TE)
Damon	Nick Kenyon (Tufts TE)
Damon	Jay Fabien (Wesleyan WR)
Jeff	Kyle Gibson (Wesleyan RB)
Jeff	Wade McNamara (Amherst WR)
Damon	D/ST (Trinity)
Damon	Kristian Lapointe (Williams RB)
Jeff	Trevor Wheeler (Middlebury WR)
Jeff	Mike Budness (Trinity FB/TE)
Damon	Kenny Adinkra (Amherst RB)
Damon	Andrew Duval (Middlebury WR)
Jeff	D/ST (Bates)
Jeff	D/ST (Amherst)
Damon	Jack Doll (Tufts QB)
Damon	Joe Mallock (Williams PK)
Jeff	Sean Wilson (Amherst RB)
Jeff	Charlie Donahue (Bates PK)

Damon

Billy Sadik-Khan (Middlebury TE)

Damon	D/ST (Middlebury)
Jeff	Justin Ciero (Colby QB)

Having issued that primer, there were still some significant hits and misses for both of us. A week later, it seems impossible that Luke Duncklee, a player Jeff and I both really like, went with the 18th-pick of the draft. Similarly, allowing Jeff to nab Kyle Gibson at 22 was a huge mistake on my part. And yet I capped it off with an even bigger mistake when I drafted Ryan Silva with the eighth-pick of the draft. He doesn’t show up there because he’s not on the Amherst team (something I had somehow forgotten), so I was allowed to re-pick, but only after Jeff made his selections at 10 and 11, which seemed like a fair punishment. There were some redeeming moments for my draft, including choosing Ryan Curit as my replacement for Silva. Thus far, I’ve also won the game of Middlebury receiver roulette, selecting Minno and Duval vs. Jeff’s Rankowitz-Wheeler combination. Though I hesitate to put words in his mouth, Jeff appears to have gone high-risk, high-reward here, and so far it hasn’t worked particularly well. He also went that route with his pick of Tim Laspada, who drew rave reviews during the offseason, but didn’t see a snap in Bates’ loss to Trinity last week. Though it’s been just one week, here are the best and worst picks for each team:

Best
Damon: Billy Sadik-Khan
Jeff: Justin Ciero/Luke Duncklee

Worst
Damon: Ryan Silva/Kevin Davis (taken before Duncklee)
Jeff: Tim Laspada (for now)/Trevor Wheeler (don’t go chasing waterfalls)

So naturally you want to know how our teams stacked up against one another. Using ESPN standard scoring, here are the results, both for individual players and also for our teams:

	Jeff				Damon
QB	Laspada	0		QB	Foote	22.6
QB	Ciero	17		QB	Jack Doll	5
RB	Drew	23.9		RB	James Stannell	9.1
RB	Donnarumma	7.5		RB	Ryan Curit	18.4
RB	Bunker	31.2		RB	Adam Scyocurka	3.3
RB	Jacobs	0		RB	Ben Crick	5.2
WR	Rankowitz	3.9		WR	Jake O’Malley	1.5
WR	Jensen	3.5		WR	Matt Minno	7.2
WR	Jones	5.7		WR	Kevin Davis	0
WR	Duncklee	21.9		WR	Jack Cooleen	1.9
WR	McNamara	0		WR	Jay Fabien	10.4
WR	Wheeler	0		WR	Andrew Duval	1.3
TE	Hughes	1.7		TE	Nick Kenyon	-0.6
TE	Budness	1.9		TE	Billy Sadik-Khan	22.6
D/ST	Bates	2		D/ST	Trinity	8
D/ST	Amherst	17		D/ST	Middlebury D/ST	15
K	Donahue	5		K	Joe Mallock	0
		142.2				130.9
Bench	Gibson	21		Bench	Kristian Lapointe	0.7
Bench	Warren	1.5		Bench	Kenny Adinkra	4.6

While at first glance the score was was pretty close, Jeff won by almost 12 points despite four players on his team registering no points, with just one player doing the same for me, though Nick Kenyon’s negative-point total gets an honorable mention. As you might imagine there was some waiver-wire action after the weekend, which resulted in seven roster moves:

Damon	ADD Josh Hurwitz DROP Kristian Lapointe
Jeff	ADD Jesse Warren DROP Shaun Wilson
Damon	ADD Brian Ragone DROP Kevin Davis
Jeff	ADD Greg Payton DROP Zach Weeler
Damon	ADD Joey Zelkowtiz DROP Kenny Andrinka
Jeff	ADD Kevin Davis DROP Wade McNamara
Jeff	ADD Kenny Adinkra DROP Tyler Jacobs

Heading into Week 2, here’s what our respective rosters look like:

Jeff		Damon
QB	Warren	QB	Foote
QB	Ciero	QB	Doll
RB	Drew	RB	Stannell
RB	Donnarumma	RB	Curit
RB	Bunker	RB	Scyocurka
RB	Gibson	RB	Crick
WR	Rankowitz	WR	O’Malley
WR	Jensen	WR	Minno
WR	Jones	WR	Hurwitz
WR	Duncklee	WR	Ragone
WR	Davis	WR	Fabien
WR	Payton	WR	Duval
TE	Hughes	TE	Kenyon
TE	Budness	TE	Sadik-Khan
D/ST	Bates	D/ST	Trinity
D/ST	Amherst	D/ST	Middlebury
K	Donahue	K	Mallock
Bench	Adrinka	Bench	Zelkowitz
Bench	Laspada	Bench	Cooleen

Feel free to weigh in on how you think will win a pivotal Week 2 matchup, if you think there are guys who you can’t believe we’ve neglected to add (favorites go to the Tufts backfield of Chance Brady and Zach Trause) or anything else you’d like to add.