Theory

Topics to be Discussed

I. The Classical Theory

  • Adam Smith
  • Malthus
  • The Iron Law of Wages
  • The Classical Transition
  • The Marxist critique

II. The Theory of Demographic Transition

  • The European experience
  • Demographic transition in the Third World
  • Modernization and “wealth flows”
  • Self reinforcing development
    • Take-off
    •  Malthusian traps

III. Fertility Cycles in America

  • The “Pennsylvania” theory of fertility
  • The Baby-Busters
  • The Baby-Boomers
  • Generation X

IV. Fertility Decline and Economic Growth

General Reading Assignment

Richard Johnson, (2004) “Economic Policy Implications of World Demographic Change”.in Economic Review (Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City) Winter vol. 89. no. 1, pp39-64 (Electronic Reserve)

Individual Reading Assignments

(Two-page report due on September 29)

Each group has its own reading assignment, to find yours, click on your group.

 

 Group A Group B Group C Group D Group E

 

Group A

Beaudry, Paul; Green, David A. (2002); “Population Growth, Technological Adoption, and Economic Outcomes in the Information Era”; Review of Economic Dynamics v5, n4 (October 2002): 749-774 (Omit Sections 2 and 3) (Electronic Reserve)

Group B

Bailey, Martha and William Collins, (2011), “Did Improvements in Household Technology cause the Baby Boom? Evidence from Electrification, Appliance Diffusion and the Amish”, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 3, April, pp. 189-217. (Consider only pp. 189-191 and pp 213, 214. (Electronic Reserve)

Greenwood, J.; A. Seshadri and G. Nandenbrouke, (2005), “The Baby Boom and Bust”, American Economic Review, Vol. 95, no. 1, pp. 183-207. (Consider only pp. 183-185 and pp 205.) (Electronic Reserve)

Group C.

Lesthaege, R., (2010), “The Unfolding Story of the Second Demographic Transition”, Population and Development Review, Vol. 36, No. 2, pp 211-231. (Consider only pp 211-214 and pp 242-245.) (Electronic Reserve)

 

Group D

Galor, Oded and David N. Weil, (1996), “The Gender Gap, Fertility and Growth”, in The American Economic Review, Vol. 86, No. 3, (June 1996), pp. 374-387. (Electronic Reserve)

 

Group E

Macunovich, Diane J. (2000), “Relative Cohort Size: Source of a Unifying Theory of Global Fertility Transition?”, Population and Development Review v26, n2 (June 2000): 235-61 (Omit section on Statistical Tests).(Electronic Reserve)

Supplements

Contents:

Graphics
The Classical Model
The Modern Demographic Transition
The Low Level Equilibrium Trap
The Pennsylvania model of fertility
The “Columbia-Chicago” model of fertility
The Neoclassical Growth Model
The Virtuous Circle

 

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