Iran’s Danger and Opportunity

Where Iran is going and what other countries can do to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons are timely concerns. Difficult as the situation is now it can also provide an opportunity for reaching a wider, more important goal: a nuclear weapons free zone (NWFZ) in the Middle East.

Talks between Iran and representatives of the U.S., Britain, Germany, France, Russia and China can help develop a consensus regarding Iran’s development of nuclear power. Iran’s eventual production of nuclear weapons and a possible Israeli or US response can precipitate a war of unknown -but certainly terrible- consequences.

In this context, Israel’s concern over Iran’s nuclear program is legitimate, particularly given the avowed antagonism of Iran for the State of Israel. But Iran’s concerns for an Israeli attack can’t be easily dismissed either.

Given this situation, is it possible to redirect talks in a way to avoid such a disastrous alternative? I believe it is. Both Iranian and Israeli concerns about the other party’s use of nuclear weapons –which by many accounts Iran is still years away from developing- could be addressed by the discussion of an old idea: the creation of a Nuclear Weapons Free Zone (NWFZ) in the Middle East.

The call for such a zone in the Middle East was first issued in 1974. That year, the UN General Assembly passed a resolution calling for all countries in the region “to declare that they will refrain from producing, acquiring or in any way possessing nuclear weapons and nuclear explosive devices and from permitting the stationing of nuclear weapons in their territory by any third party.” In following years, the UN General Assembly renewed that call on several occasions.

On September 17, in a non-binding ballot, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) adopted a resolution (100 to 1 with four abstentions) urging all Middle East nations to forswear atomic bombs. Israel voted no because the resolution retained a clause calling “upon all states in the region to accede” to the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).

The creation of a NWFZ in the Middle East would be to everyone’s advantage. It cannot be denied that a nuclear armed Iran is of concern not only to Israel but also to many of its Arab neighbors since it would dramatically alter the balance of power in the region. Iran’s development of nuclear weapons could start a nuclear arms race in the Middle East that would divert precious resources for economic development into the development of nuclear weapons with serious consequences for peace and stability in the region.

The establishment of nuclear free zones in other parts of the world has been an effective deterrent to preventing nuclear proliferation. Latin America, the South Pacific, Southeast Asia, Africa and Antarctica have all been established as NWFZ. Since the establishment of that status, no country in those regions has sought nuclear weapons capability.

In this context, only the U.S. has the clout to revive the discussions on the creation of the NWFZ in the Middle East. Such a move would be consistent with President Obama’s call for a world free of nuclear weapons, and would eliminate the main threat to peace in the region.

The U.S. could provide security guarantees to both Iran and to Israel. In Iran’s case, the U.S. could reaffirm its adherence to the 1981 Algiers Accord. Among the main provisions of that agreement (brokered by Algiers in 1981 to resolve the Iran hostage crisis) is that the U.S. would not intervene politically or militarily in Iranian internal affairs. The U.S. would also remove its freeze on Iranian assets and trade sanctions on Iran. To Israel, the US could offer additional security guarantees to reaffirm what has been a sustained support for that country’s political and security aims.

Incorporating the NWFZ into discussions with Iran would indicate a paradigm shift towards an effective road to peace in a region of the world where war has already exacted a terrible price.

Dr. Cesar Chelala, a co-winner of an Overseas Press Club of America award, is the foreign correspondent for the Middle East Times International (Australia).