Chinese manufacturing activity slows

By Jamil Anderlini in Beijing

中国制造业活力减弱

Chinese manufacturing activity contracted for the first time in almost three years in November, adding to fears about the health of the global economy. 11月，中国制造业三年来首次出现收缩现象，更增加了人们对全球经济状况的担忧。

News of the decline came a day after the US Federal Reserve led a co-ordinated move to ease global liquidity concerns and the Chinese central bank loosened monetary policy. 就在美联储领导协作行动缓解全球流动资产问题，中国中央银行放宽货币政策的前一天，传来了中国制造业下滑的消息。

Chinese government data released on Thursday showed the official purchasing managers’ index fell to 49 in November from 50.4 in October, with a reading below 50 indicating a fall-off in manufacturing. November’s contraction was the first since February 2009. 中国政府周四发布的数据显示采购经理指数（PMI）从10月份的50.4下降至11月的49。而50以下的读数表示制造业下滑。这是自2009年2月以来制造业第一次出现萎缩。

In a surprise move timed to offset the negative impact of the PMI number, on Wednesday China’s central bank announced a cut in the required reserve ratio – reducing the amount of funds banks must hold back – for the first time in three years. The reading will add to concerns among policymakers and investors that China is heading for a downturn just as the rest of the world is looking to it as the brightest spot in an otherwise gloomy global landscape. 周三，为了抵消PMI造成的消极影响，中国中央银行突然宣布降低法定准备金比率（RRR），减少银行暂扣的资金量，三年来这还是头一次。 这一PMI数据会增加政策制定者和投资者的担忧，即在全球经济暗淡的背景下，正当全世界都把中国视作最有前途的经济体时，中国将面临经济衰退的局面。

“The markets have been handed a powerful one-two combo, in the form of a shocking PMI print and an aggressive RRR cut,” said Alistair Thornton, China analyst at IHS Global Insight. “The message is clear: the economy is slowing much faster than expected and the government has stepped into the ring.”

“市场连吃两记重拳，先是惊人的PMI，接着是急剧的RRR裁减，”IHS全球公司中国分析师称，“显然，经济减缓的步伐比预期的还要快，而中国政府已经跳上了擂台。”

By reducing the amount of deposits banks must hold on reserve by 0.5 percentage points, the central bank effectively injected about Rmb400bn ($63bn) into the banking system. 通过对法定准备金比率降低0.5个百分点，中央银行对银行体系有效注入了4000亿3人民币（630亿美元）。

The growth in China’s trade with the EU and US have slowed in recent months, with exports to crisis-hit Europe most affected. Real estate sales volumes have also dropped sharply, with prices starting to decline. Most property developers appear to be delaying new projects – potentially devestating in a country where real estate construction accounts for about one-quarter of investment and about 13 per cent of GDP. 最近几个月，中国与欧盟及美国的贸易增长速度放缓，其中对经历金融危机的欧洲的进口影响最为严重。房产销售额急剧萎缩，房价开始降低。大部分房地产开发商都在拖延新的项目，这对一个房产建设占投资总额四分之一，占GDP份额13%的国家来说具有潜在破坏力。

Most analysts believe more monetary loosening measures will be announced in the coming months, reversing two years of gradual tightening. 大多数分析师认为在未来几个月将宣布放宽货币政策，改变两年来的紧缩政策。

Analysts expect figures to show that consumer inflation fell to about 4.3 per cent in November, down from 5.5 per cent in October and a peak of 6.5 per cent in July. But restraining inflation has come at the cost of a steeper than expected drop in economic growth. 分析师预计消费通胀率将从7月的峰值6.5%和10月的5.5%降至11月的4.3%。然而约束通胀是以经济增长速度的大幅衰退为代价的。

The PMI sub-indices for new orders and new export orders fell to their lowest levels in nearly three years, to 47.8 and 45.6 respectively, indicating a sharper contraction as factories cut production and fire workers. 新产品计及新出口订单的PMI指数跌至近三年来的最低水平，分别为47.8和45.6，这预示着制造业的更严峻紧缩，此时各大工厂正在降低生产并进行裁员。