1. regardless of narrative, how will voters in states coming up look at Trump’s relative performance if he lost a key industrial Midwestern state, specifically after wins in Michigan and Illinois, despite ‘unfavourable demographics’? The cable news channels will be churning out another map with state wins and point out that a Wisconsin win for anyone but trump would look like a breakthrough, a reversal?

    My interpretation is that even a Trump win in Wisconsin today wouldn’t give him much momentum and still leave him in the long odds to claiming 1237, conditional on what happens in those CA districts with less than 10000 registered republicans. The disproportionate coverage of a loss will have some effect going into NY. But how much will a 10% loss hurt him more than a 1% loss?

  2. Peter – As you can probably tell from my earlier post, I don’t believe “momentum” coming out Wisconsin really matters much in terms of affecting voters’ choices in New York, although I agree with you that a Cruz victory will drive the media narrative that he has the Big Mo. And it’s not clear to me, based on the demographics, that I’d lump Wisconsin in with Ohio, Michigan or Pennsylvania. At this point, Cruz has no hope of winning the delegate race, so it’s all about stopping Trump from clinching before the convention. We should know whether he can based on what happens in New York. I’m not sure Wisconsin changes much at all, given its demographics.

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