Live Blogging At the Grille!

Hi all,

Welcome to another night of Live Blogging from the “Karl Rove” Crossroads Cafe here at wonderful Middlebury!  (Actually, I’m not there yet, but am heading in to set up with Bert Johnson).  Our crack research staff will be Tina Berger, Kate Hamilton, Day Robins and Danny Zhang.  As always, I’ll be doing double duty co-hosting the festivities and trying to blog and tweet – please join in on the live blog!

First states we are looking at will be early returns from Kentucky and Vermont, both of which have polls closing at 7 p.m.



  1. I think Virginia closes at 7 as well, with Warner projected to win in a race that was closer than anticipated?

  2. It’ll be sad if Scott Brown manages to pull off a victory in NH, I was under the assumption that she was maybe safe-ish….

  3. Sad not to be at the Karl Rove Crossroads cafe with the Dickinson research crew tonight! Next time I need a livestream of the Professor Pundits commentary!

    Too my fellow Midd liberals – buckle up, it’s going to be a long night.

  4. Hi Anna,

    Glad to have you aboard for the ride- a new crop of RA’s are manning the computers tonight.

  5. Alas, Danny has more important things to do tonight – he’s working for Democracy and your right to vote!

  6. The over-dramatization (music, tone of voice) in CNN’s lead-in is incredible. Horse race coverage at its finest.

  7. This “look at all that blue” analysis from John King is outstanding in its misrepresentation of the way that house apportionment and representation works.

  8. Virginia is way close. But if fairfax is still reporting that’s good. Also MA gov race in a dead heat…waiting nervously

  9. Matt, if I can add on to your comparative exit poll analysis of which voters turned out (compared to 2012 by percentage of total electorate):

    -more male (47% in 2012 to 49% in 2014)
    -older (46% 18-44 in 2012 to 44% in 2014; 19% 18-29 in 2012 to 13% in 2014)
    -whiter (72% white in 2012 to 75% in 2014)
    -more republican (46% of the two party vote in 2012 to 49% in 2014)
    -similarly independent (29% in 12 to 28% in 14)
    -richer (41% earners of under 50k in 2012 to 37% in 2014)

    Not exactly surprising, given midterm fundamentals, but not great signs for the Democrats.

  10. Tarsi – How many votes are left in Fairfax – raw numbers? Is it enough for Warner?

  11. I’m having some trouble figuring out the reporting numbers for VA districts including fairfax…

  12. My back of the envelope calculation suggests a 15,000 vote edge for Warner among as-of-yet uncounted votes in Fairfax county. Not enough on its own to close the gap.

  13. Virginia count just changed after I posted that calculation, without the Fairfax county vote tally going up–it’s still at 72%. Not sure where those 40,000 votes for Warner (and 30,000) for Gillespie came from. All other counties seemed pretty well counted according to my pointer.

  14. But,as you know from elections class, I think campaigns DO matter – but by activating voters interest in the fundamentals!

  15. CNN and NYTimes reporting very different numbers for vote tallies and percent reporting in Virginia.

    CNN has 92% reporting with both candidates at approximately 1,030,000 votes, while NYTimes reports 96% in (with only 72% of Fairfax reporting) and Gillespie at 1,006,000 and Warner at 998,000.

  16. Hagan looks to have a good chance to make up her ~50,000 vote margin in North Carolina with only a couple of counties still out there with votes, including Mecklenberg (Charlotte) and Guilford (Greensboro). Between those two counties, my rough estimate (based on current percentage of vote to each candidate in that county and an estimate of the total number of voters in that county (based itself on percent of precincts reporting)) is that Hagan can should pick up around 56,000 votes over Tillis.

  17. Hey guys. Not sure about Globe, but NYT standing by call for Jean Shaheen. They’ve got a full length article about her win already running.

  18. They are saying they really don’t know – they just run the story as soon as a winner is projected, but they actually have no independent reporting on this. They rely on everyone else.

  19. Even if Shaheen and Warner both hold on, Dems still look like they could end up with only 45 Senate seats. Even with all the pessimism, a pretty surprising result.

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