The last time the Middlebury football team beat Williams was in 2000. I was 9-years old. Jeff was 8. Bob Ritter hadn’t been hired as the head coach. And the national deficit … well, there wasn’t one.

Since 2000 Middlebury has found all kinds of ways to lose to Williams. There have been defensive struggles, offensive shootouts, 2-point losses and 20-point losses. Middlebury won a NESCAC title during that stretch. But they didn’t beat Williams.

So why am I convinced that today will be different? (NOTE: Jeff disagrees.) In last year’s 48-28 win, Marco Hernandez and Tom Wohlwender ran wild, rushing for 5 touchdowns as Williams racked up 280 total yards on the ground. Darren Hartwell, meanwhile, caught 6 passes for 134 yards and 2 scores.

When I spoke to defensive coordinator Doug Mandigo this week, he stressed that the biggest difference between the defense this season vs. last season is the focus on not allowing opposing offenses to make big plays. Of course the goal of every defense is to limit explosive plays and actually accomplishing it is something different altogether. But through three games, the Panthers have allowed just 6 “explosive plays” (gains of 25 yards or more) and just 2 in their last two games. By cutting down on the number of explosive plays the defense is allowing, Doug Mandigo’s unit has given itself more opportunities to get stops and has done a great job getting off the field on third downs so far.

Offensively the Panthers are a juggernaut and if they can get score early and often (something that has been a considerable struggle so far this season) the defense is, in many ways, built to protect a lead.  With that, here are some things to keep in mind:

Weather forecast: 50° F with winds around 10 mph according to weather.com

Keys to the game: 
Middlebury: The Panthers need to start quickly. They’ve only scored 7 points on their three first possessions this season, with the lone touchdown coming on a short field after Bryant Adams intercepted Grant White in the first week. If the offense can force Williams to play from behind and make the Ephs one dimensional, the Middlebury defense will have a field day. If the offense struggles early and are forced to play from behind, the Ephs will be able to run the ball effectively with Marco Hernandez, opening up play action and passing lanes for quarterback Adam Marske and Hartwell and company.

Williams: Keep the Middlebury offense off the field. The Panthers ran 86 offensive plays last week against Amherst and it could have been more had they not slowed down late in the game to run out the clock. The Ephs will need to produce big plays to win, but equally important will be converting on third-and-short, something the Lord Jeffs failed to do last week. Opening running lanes early for Marco Hernandez will be crucial, therefore, both to keep the chains moving, but also to give the defense some much needed rest.

Matchups to watch:
Billy Chapman and Zach Driscoll vs. the Williams secondary: Chapman and Driscoll were able to get to any spot on the field last Saturday, burning the Amherst secondary for 23 receptions and 236 yards and 2 touchdowns between the two of them and it probably should have been more. Chapman in particular is crucial to the success of the offense, which targets the versatile tight end with short passes, often in place of the struggling Middlebury running game. If Williams can blanket Driscoll and Chapman — a tall order — the Ephs will extend their winning streak to 12 against Middlebury.

Tim Patricia vs. Marco Hernandez: Last week Patricia, the NESCAC Defensive Player of the Week, said that Middlebury’s defense is designed for the mike linebacker to make tackles. So far the defense has executed well as Patricia leads the team with 32 tackles. After limiting Ryan Silva to just 86 yards on 21 carries last Saturday, the freshmanPatricia faces another challenge this weekend in Marco Hernandez, one of the conference’s top running backs. If the Los Angeles native can limit Hernandez, particularly on third-and-short, and force Marske to air the ball out, Middlebury will win this game.

Prediction: Middlebury 38 – Williams 23 (Jeff says: Williams 28 – Middlebury 24)

The Panthers, regardless of what Jeff thinks, are too strong on both sides of the football for a 1-2 Williams team, albeit better than what the record says. The Panthers front seven has been dominant against the run this season and has the talent in the secondary to limit Hartwell and company to minimal yards after the catch. Williams will put up points in this one, but will not be able to stop Mac Foote and the Middlebury offense consistently enough to stay in the game beyond the first half.

If you’re reading this blog you probably already know that the Middlebury football team beat Amherst 24-3 on Saturday to improve to 3-0. You may not know how they did it, however.

The offense got off to a slow start — a recurring problem that will eventually catch up with this team if it can’t figure out how to put points on the board early in the game. I’ve asked head coach Bob Ritter, Zach Driscoll and Foote all the same question — why is the offense out of sync early? — and I’ve gotten three different answers. The concern is there, however, and if I had to guess I would say that this is a “small sample size problem.” Saturday at Williams will provide another crucial opportunity for the unit to correct its early game woes.

The defense, meanwhile, was dominant in the first half in particular, forcing Amherst into six three-and-outs on just eight possessions. The Lord Jeffs had just four first downs in the first half, crossing into Middlebury territory only on the second possession of the game. Defensive coordinator Doug Mandigo’s unit put forward a superlative effort, consistently making plays on third and fourth down as well as on the rare occasions when Amherst found its way into scoring position.

Early in the first quarter Amherst threatened to take the lead as Lord Jeffs quarterback Max Lippe and his top receiving target Wade McNamara got in sync. With Amherst facing first-and-10 from the Middlebury 20-yard line, the defense finally made a play. Trying to find a receiver downfield, Lippe rolled to his left with the ball in his inside hand. Matt Crimmins, who made the game’s biggest play the week before against Colby, knocked the ball out and Jimmy Tilson, who spent most of the game in the Amherst backfield, recovered.

If the first quarter was won by the defense, the offense returned the favor in the second quarter, scoring touchdowns on three of its five possessions. Foote was considerably more accurate, but he was helped by a number of athletic catches by his receivers. Zach Driscoll had 11 catches for 126 yards in the game, cementing his status as the top pass catcher in the NESCAC thus far this season. But one of his catches in particular stood out. On first-and-10 from the Amherst 32-yard line, Driscoll ran a fly route down the left sideline and Foote, made a high arching pass over Driscoll’s left shoulder. Driscoll made a phenomenal play, separating from top Amherst corner Landrus Lewis and extending fully for the catch. Much more impressive, though, was his ability to stay in bounds, dragging his back foot to complete the play and setting up first-and-goal for Middlebury at the 8-yard line. Three plays later, Foote found Chapman in the back of the end zone for the pair’s second touchdown.

The Panthers’ most impressive drive came two possessions later, however, when Foote drove 50-yards in 42 seconds, ultimately diving into the end zone from two-yards out for the first rushing touchdown of his Middlebury career. Foote said that he considered throwing the ball up for Driscoll, but that the Amherst defense overplayed Driscoll, leaving no one to spy on Foote who stepped out of a desperate arm tackle in the backfield and dove across the plane with 8 seconds left in the half.

Foote’s scramble was made possible by a leaping 20-yard grab over the middle by first-year wide receiver Harrison Goodkind. Goodkind, who’s listed at just 5’10”, displayed tremendous athleticism and great hands to bring the ball in. He had one other catch, finishing with 23 yards receiving.

After scoring 21 first half points, Middlebury added just 3 in the second half, but successfully managed the clock. Backup running back Matt Rea did a nice job moving the chains while giving Ashkar a couple of plays off. And the defense shut the door, allowing a field goal on the visitors’ opening drive of the second half but limiting them to just that. First-year linebacker and NESCAC Defensive Player of the Week, Tim Patricia led the defense with 12 tackles and the game-ending interception with just over 2 minutes to play.

Patricia said that DJ Petropolous, who replaced Lippe midway through the fourth quarter, had gone to his first option on consecutive passes on the drive. Figuring he’d be forced to go to his second option, Patricia sat on the route and stepped in to make the play.

Incredibly, the California native has been the most outstanding player on the NESCAC’s top scoring defense through the first three weeks. Patricia said Friday that the transition from high school to college was made easier because the defensive system is the same. With Patricia at the Mike linebacker spot flanked by Crimmins and Wiet, an experienced defensive line and an opportunistic secondary, this defense should continue to throttle teams like they did against Amherst on Saturday.

Check back in Friday when we’ll have a long post looking at Middlebury’s matchup this weekend at Williams. Middlebury has a lot of history riding on the line on Saturday. If they beat the Ephs it will be the team’s first win against their Route 7 rivals since 2000 and will give the Panthers their best start since they went 5-0 to start the 1992 season.

We would like to send our thoughts to the Bates football team, the Pappas family, and the Bates College community, as they mourn the loss of Troy Pappas. 

Today’s game: Amherst (2-0) at Middlebury (2-0), 1:30 P.M

Both teams come into this game undefeated on the season. Amherst, the NESCAC defending champion, is riding a ten game winning streak after an undefeated 2011 season. The Lord Jeffs are a top tier team loaded with talent and an early season favorite to win the conference. Today’s game is a huge opportunity for Middlebury to prove that they deserve consideration in the top tier as well.  Unfortunately for the Panthers, it’s the top tier for a reason, and breaking through with a win against Amherst will take a superlative performance.

Weather forecast: 30% chance of rain through 3PM, with winds up to 10 miles per hour, according to The Weather Channel. Any poor conditions will be an advantage to Amherst, a ground-and-pound team, against Middlebury’s pass-first offense.

Recent Meetings:
-In 2010, the two teams met in Middlebury, and Amherst came out on top 38-31. Middlebury took a 9-0 lead into halftime but Amherst responded with 24 third quarter points on the back of quarterback Alex Vetras, who went 11-14 with two passing touchdowns and a rushing touchdown in the frame. Donnie McKillop was 47-62 for 421 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception.
–Last season, Amherst knocked off the Panthers at home 48-28 on the way to its undefeated season. Evan Bunker had a characteristically dominant performance, rushing for 139 yards and 4 touchdowns on 6.8 yards per carry. Blake Grauer added 193 passing yards and two touchdowns, with no interceptions. On the Panthers side of the ball, it was a one-dimensional attack, as the team put up a measly 50 yards on 2.2 yards per carry on the ground. Mac Foote, on the other hand, was a gaudy 46-73 for 400 yards, with three touchdowns and three interceptions. Four Panthers receivers had nine or more catches in the game. One positive to take away from Foote’s performance (other than the fact that he can put up huge numbers) was that the interceptions all came toward the end of the game (from 1:14 left in the 3rd quarter onward), and all were during long, sustained drives (8 plays or more). That is to say that were it not for self-inflicted wounds, Middlebury could have potentially ended the Lord Jeffs’ undefeated season early. Of course, it also says that Amherst makes big plays in big moments, and there is no reason to believe they will not continue to do so.

Keys to the game:
-Fast Start for Panthers’ Passing– If recent history is any indicator, Middlebury will look to pass early and pass often. This year’s offense has put up 42 points and five passing touchdowns in each of its first two games, and needs a stellar performance today if they want to pull out the win. If the Panthers pass offense is in rhythm early, it could give them the lead they need to force Amherst out of their running oriented gameplan.
-Fast Start for Lord Jeffs ‘Rushing– Amherst’s rushing unit seems to have not lost a beat with the loss of Evan Bunker, as they are averaging an astounding 308.5 rushing yards per game. Junior Ryan Silva leads the way, averaging over 150 yards per game. In each of the first two games, Middlebury’s pass offense has taken a few series to get into gear. If Mac Foote and co. waste two or three drives, this rushing offense can take a lot of time off clock with their long, methodical drives, and make it difficult for the Panthers to ever find their game.

Matchups to watch:
-Amherst DB Landrus Lewis (vs. Mac Foote, and the Middlebury Special Teams):  Landrus Lewis, arguably the best defensive back in the NESCAC, will have his hands full against the Panthers offense, but needs to make good reads on Foote and turn them into big plays for the Lord Jeffs. In last season’s matchup, he forced a fumble and made an interception. Lewis is also the top kick returner for Amherst, and Middlebury has looked very weak in the return game early this season.
-Middlebury LB Tim Patricia and John Wiet vs. Ryan Silva and Tyler Jacobs: First-year linebacker Tim Patricia is generating some hype at Middlebury, as he leads the team in tackles through the first two weeks. According to head coach Bob Ritter, Patricia has an “inordinate amount of poise for a first-year player.” John Wiet, the senior linebacker, is second on the team in tackles, and together, these two will face their toughest test of the season against the Lord Jeffs’ rushing attack.

Prediction: Middlebury 35, Amherst 28
I’m taking a big upset win for Middlebury here on Fall Family Weekend. The main factors in my decision were:
1) The passing numbers Middlebury has put up against Amherst the past two seasons, combined with the passing numbers they have put up in the first two games this season. Driscoll, Chapman, and Rankowitz, the most-feared triad of pass catchers in the NESCAC, could simply take over this game.
2) The fact that although both teams have played poor opponents in their two games this season, Middlebury’s margin of victory is 17 points greater than Amherst’s.
3) The matchup between Middlebury’s suddenly-play-making defense and Amherst’s inexperienced quarterback, Max Lippe, who has averaged under 130 passing yards per game and could find himself in a shootout on the road.
If Midd wins this one, it sends a message to Trinity, Amherst, and Williams that they have company in the top tier. If not, with Williams on the horizon, they could be on their way back to their familiar resting place in the middle of the league.

Coverage: Damon and I will be broadcasting the game on WRMC 91.1 Middlebury College radio, available online. Please tune in.

Middlebury survived a turnover plagued first half with an incredible special teams play to end the first half, as edge rusher Matthew Crimmins blocked a 28-yard field goal attempt and Joel Blockowicz returned the ball 84 yards the other way for a touchdown. As Jack commented after the game, “you could feel the air go out of the balloon for Colby” who were not the same team in the second half. Mac Foote passed for 240 yards in just over 18 minutes of second half play, taking a seat on the bench with 9 minutes left and Middlebury up 42-13.

Foote passed for 388 yards in total and 5 touchdowns, 4 of which were caught by Zach Driscoll who was named NESCAC Player of the Week. Nine of Driscoll’s 11 receptions went for first downs or scores as Foote consistently looked Driscoll’s way on third and fourth down.

Brendan Rankowitz followed up a 7-catch, 77 yard game last week with 7 more catches Saturday, good for 110 yards and his second touchdown of the season.

The offensive line kept Foote upright for the second consecutive week, not allowing a sack on any of Foote’s 56 drop backs. The only area of concern for the Panthers — four turnovers aside — was their inability to get the run game in motion. Remi Ashkar rushed 10 times for just 27 yards, though he added 40 in the air on 4 receptions.

Defensively, Middlebury was dominant, allowing just 231 yards of total offense and limiting Colby to 13 points despite four turnovers from the offense, one of which led to a short field score on the Mules first touchdown. The final three quarters were superb for Doug Mandigo’s unit, which blanked the home team over the final 47:33 of play.

Defensively, first-year linebacker Tim Patricia is turning heads. He totaled 11 tackles, including one for a 3-yard loss that almost resulted in a safety. Through two games he leads the team with 20 tackles. Both head coach Bob Ritter and defensive captain John Wiet raved about his play this week, saying that his awareness and playmaking ability are incredible for a player with such limited experience at this level.

The Middlebury defense seems vastly improved from last year’s unit, though it is hard to tell how much better it really is given the mediocrity of the offenses it has faced and even more so because of the injuries those teams have sustained.

This weekend Middlebury, which improved to 2-0 for the first time since the 2007 NESCAC championship season, hosts defending NESCAC champions Amherst, which will be a great test for the upstart Panthers. Middlebury has played Amherst tough the last two years and could — could — pull off a big upset this weekend if they solve their tendency to come out of the gate slow and continue to make big plays on defense and in special teams.

We will have a longer preview on Amherst later in the week, but there are two numbers that jump off the page at you right way: first, the Lord Jeffs rushing attack is averaging over 300 yards a game; and secondly, their defense is allowing a league-best 107 yards per game through the air.

Check back in Friday for a much longer preview of Amherst-Middlebury.