Middlebury and Bowdoin face off today in a matchup that will be significant in determining how the NESCAC standings shake out. Contributor Adam Lamont, a sophomore at Bowdoin previews the matchup.

Today’s tilt between Bowdoin and Middlebury is the first of three difficult road games the Polar Bears have to finish out the season. Bowdoin has a tendency to play close games so while they pushed Amherst and Williams to the wire, they also trailed Plymouth State and UMaine Farmington deep in the second half. Middlebury has shown the same habit often with devastating results so expect a very tight game Sunday afternoon. The key matchups will be how well Bowdoin gets the ball inside to John Swords and Middlebury’s ability to hit outside shots.

Last year Swords played his best game against Middlebury posting 13 points, 9 rebounds and three blocks. This year that would be a very ho-hum game for him as he has been a game-changing force in the middle all year. Amherst and Trinity both did a very good job against him last week making sure he caught the ball far enough away from the hoop that he had to put the ball on the floor to make a move. If he catches it close to the basket he has a great spin move either way and can use both hands to finish making that virtually unguardable. Often Swords catches the ball holds the ball for a couple of seconds to see whether the defense is going to double him. He is quick to pass out of a double team so if players feint towards him before getting back to their man they can neutralize him to some degree. For Bowdoin the key is getting him the ball in as many different ways as possible. Most of the time right now he gets the ball on entry passes from the perimeter. Bowdoin is starting to employ a baseline out of bounds play that amounts to throwing the pass high so Swords can go up and get it, gather himself, and finish. It would be great to see Bowdoin get more penetration and look to dish it to Swords inside. Even if Swords isn’t able to finish alley-oops, he should be able to gather the passes and finish. He needs to be getting 10 shots a game, something he hasn’t done since January 25th against Colby.

Amherst switched a lot on defense creating a lot of mismatches that Bowdoin looked to exploit. A lot of these possessions ended in post-ups for either Grant White or Keegan Pieri. They didn’t take bad shots, but Amherst kept switching because those post-ups made the Bowdoin offense stagnant. Bowdoin should take advantage at times of a size advantage, but shouldn’t get sucked into a predictable offense that ends in a lot of midrange shots. Like any offense without a great perimeter shot-creator, Bowdoin needs to get the ball inside as much while also moving the defense side to side. Shooting Guard Andrew Madlinger has been lights out shooting the ball all season and can make it with a defender in his face. Madlinger’s play and the return of Bryan Hurley have squeezed the playing time of Lucas Hausman a bit. He only played nine minutes against Amherst, recording zero points, but he remains the first man off the bench. He has to attack the basket even more than he is now (83.8 percent from the free throw line) and at this point should probably not be taking any threes (24.4 percent). He played better on Tuesday against Plymouth State and his creativity is an important asset for Bowdoin especially if Swords is not in the game to attract attention.

The first 10 minutes of the Amherst game made the Bowdoin defense (both man and zone) look atrocious. The ball movement was amazing with Aaron Toomey orchestrating his teammates. The perimeter defenders were always a step too late leading to blow-by drives because of bad closeouts. The defense tightened up as the game went on, but Aaron Toomey was huge down the stretch for Amherst. Dylan Sinnickson will need to have a big game for Middlebury. Duncan Robinson and Connor Green shot and made a lot of threes against the Bowdoin zone. Sinnickson is the same type of player for Middlebury so it’s crucial that Bowdoin make sure he doesn’t get open looks. Swords’ interior defense keeps getting better. Amherst was content to shoot from outside launching 37 threes making up 61.6% of their shots from the floor. The unfortunate loss of Matt St. Amour will hurt Middlebury in this aspect though they still have capable shooters. Coach Tim Gilbride is very careful about keeping Swords from fouling out and Swords often sits for long stretches in the first half. This affects him more on offense than defense because he takes some time to get into a rhythm. The best perimeter defender for Bowdoin is Grant White and he will draw Sinnickson if Bowdoin goes man to man. That man-to-man would leave most likely Mathias on Kizel, who scored a career-high 30 points on Friday night and has scored 22 or more in each of his last three games. Mathias isn’t a great athlete, but he doesn’t get beat and played Toomey very close even though Toomey still managed to hit some contested threes. The most even matchup is the power forwards where both Merryman and Pieri play crucial, albeit secondary, offensive roles. If one of those two is able to assert themselves, that would be huge whether it’s Merryman draining threes or Pieri knocking down midrange jumpers.

Bowdoin has announced that they have the ability to win the NESCAC tournament, but barring any upsets, they will have to take down Williams and Amherst in back to back games. This matchup would have been much more intriguing if Bowdoin and Middlebury had been able to finish off Amherst and Williams respectively last weekend. Still if anyone outside of the top two is going to make a run in the conference tournament, it’s Bowdoin or Middlebury. The winner will have the inside track on the number 3 seed, which doesn’t mean too much given the parity in the bottom half of the league. This should be a good benchmark game for Bowdoin that will be facing a Middlebury team that needs every win they can get.

Never in our short college careers have we — and by we I mean Jeff and I as Middlebury men’s basketball fans — been in this situation. The 2013-14 season has been a deadly cocktail of regression to the mean, Murphy’s Law and mediocrity. At 13-7 (3-3), the Panthers are not extinct yet, but very much endangered. News of Matt St. Amour’s ACL injury is just the latest tear in Middlebury’s once promising tapestry. Of course the Panthers still has something to play for, but so too does Trinity, Colby, Hamilton and every other team in the NESCAC. That it feels necessary to affirm as much is itself an indictment of our lofty expectations for this team. At this point it is highly unlikely that Middlebury will be playing on the final day of the NESCAC season, let alone the D-III basketball season.

And that’s ok. High expectations are rarely a bad thing, but with them should come an understanding that failure to match or exceed those expectations does not equate to absolute failure. As fans, or even media, it is tempting to lose focus or interest when a team does not perform to its potential, particularly when that potential has been actualized or exceeded in recent history. Middlebury is 3-3 in NESCAC, 13-7 overall and will likely (but not certainly) miss the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2007. Generations of Middlebury basketball fans that preceded us would have found much to enjoy in a season like this one. And simply because we have been spoiled by outstanding success the past four years should not preclude us from doing the same. With that in mind, here are the things to keep an eye on in today’s game against Colby.

1) February is here and Joey Kizel has gone on something of a tear. Kizel has 45 points in two games and appears to have found his shooting stroke (13-27 FG, 4-10 3PT, 15-17 FT). Now, understandably this is a tiny sample size (two games) and excludes the 1-9 shooting performance against Williams on Jan. 31, but if you view Kizel’s performance in the grander scope of his career, a late-season surge is precisely what we would expect from the All-American guard. Kizel has struggled at times with the weight of his responsibilities as a facilitator and scorer, particularly when the offense stagnates around him, but the Panthers do appear to be taking steps forward in that regard. Middlebury has lost its identity for stretches — most blatantly in the second half against Williams and the first half performance at Hamilton — but the offense seems to have turned a corner, more closely resembling the team that outscored Skidmore on the road than the group that abandoned ship against Plattsburgh at home.

2) While the offense has looked in rhythm, the team now has to replace a key rotational cog in Matt St. Amour who was averaging north of 20 minutes per game. How do his minutes get distributed and who steps into that role? It would seem like Dean Brierley, Nate Bulluck and Bryan Jones are the most likely bench players (likely in that order) to see a spike in minutes as a result of St. Amour’s injury. Bulluck has seen a reduction in his minutes at the same time that Brierley has seen a rise in his. Following St. Amour’s injury, both guards saw seven minutes of game action. Bulluck and Brierley are likely better fits at St. Amour’s position than Jones, who doesn’t give Jeff Brown as much size or defensive versatility off the bench. But in limited minutes so far this season, Jones has made the most of his opportunities and looks like a player who could give Middlebury a spark off the bench. Given Jones’s future and potential, it would be nice to see the freshman guard see steady minutes off the bench down the stretch in preparation for next season. Having said that, if Bulluck and Brierley — two of the hardest working guys in the program — have earned their minutes as upperclassmen, it’s equally hard to tell them to take a seat while another freshman plays in front of them. Even in a rebuilding year this team has depth, talent and character, which means that minutes will still be difficult to distribute and a deserving player will likely play fewer minutes than he would somewhere else. How the rotation shakes out the rest of the year is an unfortunate, but interesting storyline.

3) Colby has just one double-digit loss since the start of NESCAC play and held Williams to a seven-point loss in Williamstown, fell to Bowdoin in New Brunswick by five and beat Amherst and Trinity at home. Last weekend was not a one-hit weekend wonder for the Mules who are contending for a top-four spot in the conference and very well may play on the second day of the NESCAC tournament for the first time since 2010. The Mules’ sophomore class is the sugar cube of the program. All five of the team’s top scorers are members of the class of 2016, led by 6’8” center Chris Hudnut, 6’3” guard Ryan Jann and 6’6” forward Patrick Stewart who average double digits. Hudnut has developed into one of the conference’s best big men in what appears to be a golden age for the NESCAC in that regard. (While previous groups may have been headlined by bigger names such as Whittington, Locke and Sharry, the proliferation and distribution of talented bigs conference-wide seems unprecedented in recent years.) The Panthers have had mixed results against other centers, struggling to contain Malcolm Delpeche in the conference opener against Bates and getting shredded by Hunter Sabety in the first half against Tufts before shutting him out in the second half and doing an impressive job limiting Michael Mayer a week ago. Jack Roberts will have his hands full this weekend against Hudnut tonight and the 7’0” John Swords on Sunday. The Panthers’ depth in the front court remains thinner than desired with the prolonged absence of Matt Daley. Jake Nidenberg and Chris Churchill have provided spells of strong play on both ends, but keeping Roberts out of foul trouble will be essential for Middlebury this weekend.

It has been a tough ride so far for this team, exacerbated by extended absences from Dylan Sinnickson, Matt Daley and now Matt St. Amour, three players who we felt were the biggest offensive threats around Joey Kizel to start the season. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the Panthers have lost a handful of games they should have won, but have not pulled off the same feat — one of the hallmarks of Middlebury teams of the recent past. As a result, the 2013-14 season likely will not extend beyond the NESCAC season, which makes appreciating the games that do remain all the more important.

If you haven’t seen it yet, here is Part 5 of the Road to Salem, which follows the team on the day of their matchup with Williams:

Heading into the weekend, contributor Adam Lamont has a conference power ranking. Coming shortly a preview of tonights game featuring Adam’s 4th (Colby) and 5th (Middlebury) ranked teams.

1. Amherst (6-1) This number spot is much more closely contested than it was last week. It wasn’t shocking that Amherst had their first loss this weekend, but that it came against Colby, rather than Bowdoin was. Whether Amherst was looking ahead to their game against Bowdoin or just played a bad game isn’t clear, but a lot of credit also has to be given to the Mules. Amherst avoided the 0-2 weekend by eking out a great win over Bowdoin. Every three Aaron Toomey takes looks like it’s going in. Seeing him play in person was special. The ball movement Amherst showed against the Bowdoin zone at times was magical. Amherst figures to have a smooth weekend against Wesleyan and Conn College before finishing against Middlebury.

2. Williams (5-1) No way you can justify Williams jumping above Amherst despite the Colby upset. Williams looked lost in the first half against Middlebury and figured to be pretty much out of the conference race at half time. A great comeback kept their NESCAC-hosting hopes alive and it almost looked like Williams could be in the driver’s seat if Bowdoin beat Amherst. Four NESCAC games remain against lower tier teams for the Ephs who have played the meat of their conference schedule. Williams will have to be careful not to get complacent. A Taylor Epley resurgence is likely the key for Williams to have a chance against Amherst in their third meeting, which seems more and more likely.

3. Bowdoin (5-2) Respect only means so much, but Bowdoin has proved it can go toe-to-toe against Williams and Amherst. Bowdoin took a beating against Trinity and came out flat against Amherst who looked dominant for the first 10 minutes. But Bowdoin refused to lie down and came back before ultimately seeing Amherst make more plays down the stretch. Bryan Hurley is back and though he didn’t make a big impact this weekend, he could be the difference for Bowdoin down the stretch if he can play his way into game shape. The Bears can’t rest up too much as they have three tough road games to close out the year.

4. Colby (3-4) Call it an overreaction to one game if you want, but the Mules just put the league on notice if not for this year than certainly the near future. Their top five scorers are all sophomores with Chris Hudnut the leader of the group. Colby played both Bowdoin and Williams to single digit losses on the road but also couldn’t hang with Hamilton or Conn. College at home. If we buy their recent success they are growing up at the right time.

5. Middlebury (3-3) A baffling and heartbreaking weekend for the Panthers who looked they were coming together with a dominating first half against Williams. Then they blew that lead, losing to the Ephs in heartbreaking fashion, and couldn’t recover Sunday against Hamilton losing again in the final minute. No one questions the talent they have, but worries about chemistry and effort have to be voiced. They do have the ability to put it together and win the NESCAC tournament — assuming they make it that far. None of their remaining games (three of which are against three of the four top teams on this list) are easy wins.

6. Trinity (3-4) The offense completely broke down Friday night against Bowdoin. Still that defense is formidable — especially in the paint — and they would have beaten Colby if they shot better than 57.7 percent from the free throw line. With that defense they can beat anybody, but it seems unlikely they could win three games in a row and win the conference championship.

7. Hamilton (2-4) They have played the hardest schedule in the NESCAC so far, and while nothing screams sleeper about them, wins over Middlebury and Colby can’t be dismissed. Matt Hart, who leads the conference averaging 21.5 points per game on 48/42/84 splits, deserves First-Team All-NESCAC consideration, and if Hamilton gets hot down the stretch he could be in the running for Player of the Year honors as well.

8. Wesleyan (3-3) Yes they have won three games in a row, but none of them were particular shockers. They are almost guaranteed five conferences losses because they still have to play Williams and Amherst. A nice young core is developing especially on the perimeter, but they have to get some size before they will compete at a high level.

9. Tufts (2-4) Disappointment is not hard to come by in Medford right now. Their first three conference losses were all understandable and they seemed to be turning the corner with two straight wins. Then they inexplicably got out-played at Wesleyan. They have gotten stellar play from freshman big man Hunter Sabety, but the loss of Tom Palleschi before the season has been too much to overcome.

10. Conn College (2-4) Their win Saturday over Bates means the Camels escape the basement. Given their lack of success in recent years, just making the conference tournament will be a success for them, but that remains an uphill battle. Unfortunately Matt Vadas isn’t coming back next year and the future in New London doesn’t look very bright.

11. Bates (1-5) This is a team with a lot of talent for a last place team and that shows the depth, but also the inconsistency, of the NESCAC this year. The Bobcats beat Middlebury in Pepin Gymnasium to start NESCAC play, but everything has gone south since then. What exactly has happened in Lewiston is unclear, but they can still salvage the season if they can beat their Maine rivals in the final weekend of the season, which may be enough to secure them a spot in the NESCAC Tournament as well.

With two of the surprise teams in the NESCAC tipping off against one another, contributing writer, Adam Lamont takes a look at how Bowdoin and Trinity — two teams with similar makeups — matchup against one another.

Every single Bowdoin basketball fan is ecstatic about how the season has gone so far with Bowdoin (16-1, 4-1) off to its best start ever. Even though the team sports a 4-1 NESCAC record, naysayers still point out that all of those wins came against teams that have just one conference win each. They say Bowdoin needed a miracle shot to beat Bates in December and were pushed by teams like UMaine Farmington and Bridgewater State. Let me state that I am not one of those people who thinks the Polar Bears haven’t proven themselves. With that being said the stakes are unquestionably way higher this weekend than at any other time this season. Bowdoin plays Trinity (11-7, 3-2) tonight and Amherst (16-2, 5-0) Saturday afternoon. The dream scenario for the Polar Bears is what last played out January 29 and 30 of 2010 when Bowdoin beat Amherst on a last second shot and followed that up with a four-point win over Trinity. Circumstances were very different then as only one of the players in tomorrow’s game was on those rosters and Amherst finished 3-6 in the NESCAC that year. And oh, by the way, since the 2011-2012 season Amherst is 25-0 in conference play.

Trinity enters the game 3-2 in conference, but those two losses came to Williams and Amherst; the Bantams could be primed for a late season run as this year’s NESCAC darkhorse. In fact, Trinity and Bowdoin are very similar in makeup. They rank first and second, respectively, in team defense this year and spread the ball around on offense; neither team has a player average more than 15 points per game. The play of sophomore Shay Ajayi and freshman Ed Ogundeko in the frontcourt has been the catalyst for the improved rebounding as well as a much needed scoring punch. Bowdoin has won the rebounding battle in almost every game it has played, simply because John Swords has used his size in the paint to bring down boards. Notably, he has improved his balance this year so that he is almost impossible to push out of the paint on defensive rebounds. The big bodies of Keegan Pieri and Grant White amplify the rebounding advantage Swords gives the Polar Bears, who have outrebounded teams by 11.3 rebounds per game. Trinity is the best rebounding team and most physical front court that Bowdoin will have faced thus far so it will be crucial for Bowdoin to continue its dominance on the glass.

In the backcourt the point man for the Bantams is Jaquan Starks who leads the team in points and assists with 11.6 points per game and 3.9 assists per game. The 5’9’’ sophomore guard is not an efficient scorer, shooting 36 percent from the floor while averaging 9.9 field goal attempts per game. He shoots a higher percentage from three (38.5) than from the field so limiting his looks from deep should be Bowdoin’s top priority. The Polar Bears switches between man and zone depending partly on lineups and whether John Swords gets into foul trouble. With Trinity shooting 36 percent from deep as a team Bowdoin will likely start in man, but Coach Tim Gilbride will vary that depending on circumstance.

On offense Bowdoin’s balanced attack has moved away somewhat from its three-point-heavy approach earlier in the year to focus more on getting the ball into the paint. For comparison, in their first game against Colby, the Polar Bears shot 18 threes versus just six in their second meeting last Saturday. Swords is becoming a little more assertive on offense and starting to finish with more confidence around the basket. Pieri has become more of a focal point as well in the offense. The junior forward is looking for shots earlier in the game, mostly in the elbow area, but has even flashed an occasional three-pointer at times (though he is shooting just 27 percent from beyond the arc). Given the size and style of these two teams, expect a low-scoring, slow-paced game throughout that will come down to who can execute and find easy shots down the stretch. This one feels like a race to 60.

Looking big picture, one last note of significance is the return of Brian Hurley, who last year was Bowdoin’s starting point guard and best player. He returned from a knee injury on Tuesday against Thomas College, but expecting him to be an impact player immediately might be a mistake. In13 minutes of play, Hurley collected three points, two assists and three turnovers. I don’t know what his playing time will be like this weekend, but it would be surprising if he saw extensive time. However, with each week that goes by he should get more and more comfortable and provide flexibility and depth at guard. Some are worried that Hurley’s return will upset the rotation and hurt the play of the other guards. This seems sort of ridiculous given the minutes for the three perimeter spots are divided up mostly amongst four players: Matt Mathias, Grant White, Andrew Madlinger and Lucas Hausman. At the beginning of the year Jake Donnelly averaged 10 minute per game at point guard, giving Mathias valuable time to rest, but Donnelly is out with an injury and hasn’t played in a few months. In five NESCAC games Mathias has average 34.2 mpg where he is the primary ball handler. Doing that back-to-back days is brutal and giving him five more minutes of rest a game should be extremely helpful. With Hurley back I would love to see some type of crazy small ball lineup with Swords surrounded by four shooters with White playing power forward. But that is the type of lineup that a coach wants to see practice and develop chemistry before putting in a game, so it’s doubtful any small ball lineup will log many minutes. Nevertheless, the addition of Hurley is something to keep a close eye on the rest of the way. Though he might not be a big part of this weekend, he should have a say in what happens in the NESCAC by the end of the season.