Never in our short college careers have we — and by we I mean Jeff and I as Middlebury men’s basketball fans — been in this situation. The 2013-14 season has been a deadly cocktail of regression to the mean, Murphy’s Law and mediocrity. At 13-7 (3-3), the Panthers are not extinct yet, but very much endangered. News of Matt St. Amour’s ACL injury is just the latest tear in Middlebury’s once promising tapestry. Of course the Panthers still has something to play for, but so too does Trinity, Colby, Hamilton and every other team in the NESCAC. That it feels necessary to affirm as much is itself an indictment of our lofty expectations for this team. At this point it is highly unlikely that Middlebury will be playing on the final day of the NESCAC season, let alone the D-III basketball season.

And that’s ok. High expectations are rarely a bad thing, but with them should come an understanding that failure to match or exceed those expectations does not equate to absolute failure. As fans, or even media, it is tempting to lose focus or interest when a team does not perform to its potential, particularly when that potential has been actualized or exceeded in recent history. Middlebury is 3-3 in NESCAC, 13-7 overall and will likely (but not certainly) miss the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2007. Generations of Middlebury basketball fans that preceded us would have found much to enjoy in a season like this one. And simply because we have been spoiled by outstanding success the past four years should not preclude us from doing the same. With that in mind, here are the things to keep an eye on in today’s game against Colby.

1) February is here and Joey Kizel has gone on something of a tear. Kizel has 45 points in two games and appears to have found his shooting stroke (13-27 FG, 4-10 3PT, 15-17 FT). Now, understandably this is a tiny sample size (two games) and excludes the 1-9 shooting performance against Williams on Jan. 31, but if you view Kizel’s performance in the grander scope of his career, a late-season surge is precisely what we would expect from the All-American guard. Kizel has struggled at times with the weight of his responsibilities as a facilitator and scorer, particularly when the offense stagnates around him, but the Panthers do appear to be taking steps forward in that regard. Middlebury has lost its identity for stretches — most blatantly in the second half against Williams and the first half performance at Hamilton — but the offense seems to have turned a corner, more closely resembling the team that outscored Skidmore on the road than the group that abandoned ship against Plattsburgh at home.

2) While the offense has looked in rhythm, the team now has to replace a key rotational cog in Matt St. Amour who was averaging north of 20 minutes per game. How do his minutes get distributed and who steps into that role? It would seem like Dean Brierley, Nate Bulluck and Bryan Jones are the most likely bench players (likely in that order) to see a spike in minutes as a result of St. Amour’s injury. Bulluck has seen a reduction in his minutes at the same time that Brierley has seen a rise in his. Following St. Amour’s injury, both guards saw seven minutes of game action. Bulluck and Brierley are likely better fits at St. Amour’s position than Jones, who doesn’t give Jeff Brown as much size or defensive versatility off the bench. But in limited minutes so far this season, Jones has made the most of his opportunities and looks like a player who could give Middlebury a spark off the bench. Given Jones’s future and potential, it would be nice to see the freshman guard see steady minutes off the bench down the stretch in preparation for next season. Having said that, if Bulluck and Brierley — two of the hardest working guys in the program — have earned their minutes as upperclassmen, it’s equally hard to tell them to take a seat while another freshman plays in front of them. Even in a rebuilding year this team has depth, talent and character, which means that minutes will still be difficult to distribute and a deserving player will likely play fewer minutes than he would somewhere else. How the rotation shakes out the rest of the year is an unfortunate, but interesting storyline.

3) Colby has just one double-digit loss since the start of NESCAC play and held Williams to a seven-point loss in Williamstown, fell to Bowdoin in New Brunswick by five and beat Amherst and Trinity at home. Last weekend was not a one-hit weekend wonder for the Mules who are contending for a top-four spot in the conference and very well may play on the second day of the NESCAC tournament for the first time since 2010. The Mules’ sophomore class is the sugar cube of the program. All five of the team’s top scorers are members of the class of 2016, led by 6’8” center Chris Hudnut, 6’3” guard Ryan Jann and 6’6” forward Patrick Stewart who average double digits. Hudnut has developed into one of the conference’s best big men in what appears to be a golden age for the NESCAC in that regard. (While previous groups may have been headlined by bigger names such as Whittington, Locke and Sharry, the proliferation and distribution of talented bigs conference-wide seems unprecedented in recent years.) The Panthers have had mixed results against other centers, struggling to contain Malcolm Delpeche in the conference opener against Bates and getting shredded by Hunter Sabety in the first half against Tufts before shutting him out in the second half and doing an impressive job limiting Michael Mayer a week ago. Jack Roberts will have his hands full this weekend against Hudnut tonight and the 7’0” John Swords on Sunday. The Panthers’ depth in the front court remains thinner than desired with the prolonged absence of Matt Daley. Jake Nidenberg and Chris Churchill have provided spells of strong play on both ends, but keeping Roberts out of foul trouble will be essential for Middlebury this weekend.

It has been a tough ride so far for this team, exacerbated by extended absences from Dylan Sinnickson, Matt Daley and now Matt St. Amour, three players who we felt were the biggest offensive threats around Joey Kizel to start the season. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the Panthers have lost a handful of games they should have won, but have not pulled off the same feat — one of the hallmarks of Middlebury teams of the recent past. As a result, the 2013-14 season likely will not extend beyond the NESCAC season, which makes appreciating the games that do remain all the more important.