Friday night’s game against Wesleyan demonstrated why it’s still too early to count Middlebury in our out this year. On the one hand, Middlebury came away with a 77-75 victory in a NESCAC game on the road, but on the other, the same issues that have plagued Middlebury all season long were present once again in Middletown and the Cardinals spent much of the evening clipping their own wings in a game that they probably should have won.

First, the good: after missing a number of big shots down the stretch in a number of Middlebury’s losses so far this year, Joey Kizel delivered in a major way last night, despite struggling from the floor throughout much of the game. With his team trailing by three, with 21 seconds left in overtime, Kizel pulled up from NBA range and drained a three to tie the game and, after a pair of misses from Wesleyan, send the game into double overtime. Kizel started the game 0-5, and didn’t make his first field goal until the 2:38 mark, when he made a tough layup to cut the Wesleyan lead to three. On Middlebury’s next possession, Kizel orchestrated Middlebury’s one effective set — the pick-and-roll with Sinnickson at the top of the key — and found a wide open Sinnickson for a game-tying three. Sinnickson was tremendous, making 6-12 threes for 18 points to match Kizel as the Panthers’ high scorers. While Sinnickson’s performance was noteworthy, it’s highly unlikely he will get the same looks he did Friday at any point this season. Wesleyan’s pick-and-roll defense was virtually nonexistent, as Cardinal defenders routinely left Sinnickson — who is clearly one of the conference’s best three-point shooters — wide open all evening long. Perhaps their primary defensive assignment was stopping Kizel from turning the corner and getting penetration, but time and time again — and most egregiously when Middlebury trailed by three and Kizel was 1-5 from the floor — Wesleyan defenders got lost in the high-screen action and paid dearly for it. Kizel carried the Panthers from there, scoring 14 points over the game’s final 12:38. It was a throw-back performance for the All-American guard who looked every bit the player who has willed this team back into games before. James Jensen played a big part in Middlebury’s late-game surge, with all 13 of his points off the bench coming in the second half and overtime. Jensen finished 5-11 from the floor, but missed a couple of shots close to the basket that he normally finishes. Jensen has struggled at times this year as he has been asked to play increasingly with his back to the basket, but Friday showed more of the energetic, low post movement to which Middlebury fans have become accustomed. Matt St. Amour also had a strong performance, despite a quiet box score (8 points on 1-3 shooting). The freshman made two key plays late in the game that belie his lack of experience, first stealing the ball from impressive freshman Harry Rafferty to set up Sinnickson’s game-tying three with just over two minutes remaining in regulation and then drawing a foul with 8 seconds left in double overtime to go to the free throw line, where he made two free throws to give Middlebury a 77-75 victory. As a team, Middlebury was stingy once again defenisvely, limiting Wesleyan to less than 35 percent shooting from the floor.

That’s the good — and there were stretches of strong play from the Panthers — but it should be recognized within the overall context: Middlebury should not have won this game. Wesleyan’s inexperience and chance had as much to do with the Panthers’ victory as their play. While win-probability graphs are not kept for D-III basketball, it’s not hard to imagine that Wesleyan had a better than 90 percent chance of winning the game at the end of regulation (up 5 with the ball with 3:00 minutes left) and in the first overtime (up 3 with 28 seconds left). And if Middlebury loses the game in regulation, many of the positives listed above — especially the play of Kizel, who was 1-6 with 5 turnovers at that point — go out the window. Around Kizel the offense is still very much a work in progress. Sinnickson will continue to stretch the floor and give Middlebury an outlet on offense when their sets break down, but he won’t see the looks he got against Wesleyan tonight again this season. And Middlebury had precious little go right for them in the half court, outside of the the two-man game between Kizel and Sinnickson. St. Amour made an immediate impact when he checked into the game, getting to the free throw line and draining a long three on his first two possessions, but that was it for him until the second overtime from an offensive standpoint. After struggling mightily with his shot early in the season, St. Amour has found a rhythm from beyond the arc and the game appears to have slowed down for him considerably going to the basket. Unfortunately, Middlebury has not gotten enough touches for him and he failed to contribute on offense for a long stretch as a result. Finding St. Amour greater opportunities — perhaps by running more sets specifically for him — could be a difference-maker for this team down the stretch. Middlebury also needs greater consistency from Hunter Merryman, who has been one of the few Middlebury players who has produced over the length of the season, but his strong performances have been interspersed with games like Friday’s, when the 6’6” junior went 3-13 from the floor and 0-7 in the second half and overtime periods. Merryman remains a great three-point shooter and a strong finisher around the basket, but settles for too many long-range jump shots off the dribble. With Matt Daley out due to illness, it becomes more difficult, but all the more important that Middlebury finds good looks out of their half-court sets rather than settle for forced jump shots late in the shot clock.

Today the Panthers travel to Connecticut College (7-6, 1-1) for a game that, in year’s past, was a surefire victory. But the Camels, who have already secured their first NESCAC victory — an 82-74 win at Colby — after going winless in the conference a season ago, will provide another test for Middlebury. Matt Vadas is back to his usual ways, putting up a high volume of points on an even higher (comparatively) volume of shots. The Camels’ senior guard is averaging 19.9 points per game on 42/39/80 splits and as goes Vadas, so goes the team: Conn. College shoots just 42/36/69 from the floor while scoring 69.5 points per game. On the other end, the Camels have surrendered an average of just 69.7 points per game, which has kept them competitive through the first seven games of the season. Vadas has received support from senior forward Mason Lopez who has been a far more efficient scorer on fewer attempts. The 6’3” Lopez is averaging 12.5 points per game while shooting better than 43 percent from both the floor and beyond the arc. Freshman forward Zuri Pavlin has also made an immediate impact for the Camels: the 6’5” forward is one of two players in the NESCAC averaging a double-double with 10.7 points and 10.4 rebounds per game. Point guard Bo McKinley rounds out Conn. College’s key contributors. The sophomore is averaging 9.2 points per game and leads the team with four assists per game. McKinley can knock down open shots, at the rate of 48 percent from deep, where he is the Camels’ most dangerous threat. Outside of those four, Connecticut College does not receive substantial contributions. This appears to be an improved team, but it’s hard to believe that a team that relies so heavily on just four players can run with a Middlebury team that has the talent and depth to create problems for the Camels.

22nd-ranked Bowdoin has been the surprise team of the NESCAC so far this season. Despite an injury to arguably their most important player, point guard Bryan Hurley, the Polar Bears have found steady footing this year behind the play of center John Swords and an overachieving starting lineup. In preparation for today’s NESCAC showdown betwee Bowdoin and 18th-ranked Williams, contributing writer Adam Lamont has previewed the Polar Bears and broken down the games of the team’s key contributors

A winning streak starts innocently enough. One win is nothing to get overly excited about to begin the year. Soon after a couple more wins a team starts to gain more and more confidence. Bowdoin has started the season 12-0, and by no means has their run been perfect. But oh boy has it been exciting. The streak’s highlight so far has been undoubtedly the Matt Mathias miracle against Bates in December. The buzzer beater capped off a crazy final minute and a half with the two Maine teams trading baskets right up until the end. Most of the games have been close grind it out contests with Bowdoin making enough plays down the stretch to pull it out. If that sounds like it’s diminishing what Bowdoin has done, maybe that’s true, but Bowdoin is yet to play anybody of real significance. The two victories over the other Maine schools are great, but were non-conference games. Their two conference wins against Conn College and Wesleyan were quality wins, but should not be overstated. It’s clear many are hesitant to give Bowdoin too much credit as they are ranked only 19th in the most recent D3hoops poll. Their game against Williams today will be watched closely to see if Bowdoin can compete for a NESCAC title this year.

The most encouraging factor of this start has been the clear identity that has been present from the first game. A very apt comparison of Bowdoin is the Indiana Pacers right before Paul George made the leap to superstar status. Bowdoin is big at every position and on defense plays a 2-3 zone in order to clog up the paint. The Polar Bears don’t push the ball — they’ve eclipsed the 70-point mark just five times this season. Bowdoin has a bunch of very capable players who complement each other well, but they are very thin, which requires the starters log heavy minutes. What follows is a player-by-player breakdown of Bowdoin’s roster and their Pacers equivalent.

Player Comparisons

John Swords (Center) — Roy Hibbert: Bowdoin’s identity stems from the presence of John Swords in the middle. The offense centers on trying to get the ball into Swords who more often than not throws it back outside to find open looks for his teammates on the perimeter. Without Swords, the foundation of both the offense and the defense would be drastically different. The junior seven footer has been a model of consistency so far with only two games in single-digit scoring and at least five rebounds every game. Last year he demonstrated flashes of his potential as a game-changing player, but lacked any type of consistent offensive game. This year the only weakness in his game is his continued propensity for foul trouble. If he stays out of foul trouble he will average right around 30 minutes per game. Teams can still attack him by isolating him one and one in the elbow area where Swords struggles to keep up with quicker forwards. Chris Hudnut, Colby’s center, had 20 points and Swords had four fouls in Colby and Bowdoin’s first meeting so Swords is by no means a lockdown defender. Another predictable problem for Swords is his foul shooting which is less than 50%.

Keegan Pieri (Power Forward) — David West: This might just be the most apt comparison with the Pacers. Pieri is not a flashy player, but can be counted on for about 12 points and 7 rebounds game in and game out. His ability to hit mid-range shots is crucial in spacing the floor for Swords inside. Often Pieri gets lost in the shuffle because he doesn’t do anything spectacular. Pieri can create his own shot in isolation sets when he works from the elbow area.

Grant White (Small Forward) — Paul George: This is Paul George 2011 edition and not the Paul George who is one of the best five players in the NBA. White is the most frustrating player to watch on offense for Bowdoin. A 54.5% three point shooter who can occasionally create his own shot should not have six shot attempts TOTAL in the first two NESCAC games. When White opened the season with 20 points in the first game it looked like he was going to come into his own. His regression this season is puzzling because this is the first season basketball was his only priority (he also played quarterback for the football team) and he lost most of last year to injury. He should be becoming more and more confident every week, but instead is basically a spot-up shooter and good defender who has to log heavy minutes because he is one of Bowdoin’s few reliable wing players.

Andrew Madlinger (Shooting Guard) — Nobody comparable: Madlinger doesn’t really have a parallel on the Pacers because he is a very steady player who shoots three’s on 60% of his shots. He doesn’t possess the ability to make plays either for himself or his teammates that one would want from one of your primary ball-handlers, but Madlinger makes up for it with his shooting. Like any shooter he runs hot and cold, but when he finds his range, the Bowdoin offense is very hard to stop.

Matt Mathias (Point Guard) — George Hill: Mathias has been incredible in filling in for an injured Brian Hurley. Mathias is not the same player as Hurley, but his composure in initiating the offense has silenced concerns that Bowdoin would be wracked with turnovers without Hurley. The strength of Mathias’ offensive game is his shooting (noticing a trend yet?) but he has enough bounce to get into the lane and distribute. His scoring is a tad up from last year, but he is playing a much different role evidenced by his increase in assists from 2.0 to 4.7 this year.

Lucas Hausman (Combo Guard) — Lance Stephenson: The trait Lance Stephenson is most associated with is confidence dating back to the days when he was a benchwarmer calling out Lebron. Hausman possesses that same moxie for better or worse depending on the game. He is the most dynamic shot-creator Bowdoin has, but often forces the issue too much. His minutes are actually down from last year in large part because he is shooting only 19% from three, which doesn’t really make sense considering he is a good shooter, evidenced by his 87% free throw percentage.

Matt Palecki (Power Forward) — Tyler Hansbrough: This parallel is pretty much spot on. Palecki clearly wants to bring energy off the bench when he comes in. He lacks the athleticism to finish over or around defenders, but does a good job with positioning. Same holds for rebounding. Palecki played very well in the first conference game of the year and could be a valuable scorer off the bench.

Neil Fuller (Power Forward) — Ian Mahinmi: Fuller is not really like Mahinmi in style, but they have similar roles. If John Swords gets into any type of foul trouble Fuller takes most of those minutes. He doesn’t look to score much on offense, but actually has good passing vision, which leads to easy baskets inside for others. There aren’t a lot of minutes with Swords and Pieri entrenched, but Fuller should continue to grow this year.

Looking Ahead

The biggest question entering the season was how Bowdoin would do with Brian Hurley out with an ACL injury. His outside shooting and steady ball handling was critical all of last year. Head coach Tim Gilbride has done a great job this year making sure that the offense doesn’t need a great point guard to score consistently. While Matthias’s play has diminished the loss of Hurley, depth remains the biggest concern going forward. As the Polar Bears enter the stretch period of the NESCAC schedule, will they continue to compete and make big plays late in games when most of the starters play well upwards of thirty minutes a game? If somebody gets into foul trouble or has injury issues, Coach Gilbride will struggle to juggle the rotation and find extra minutes for his bench. The perimeter is especially thin with Hausman being the only bench player getting serious minutes in the backcourt. Ideally one of the three power forwards would be able to play small forward occasionally. Defensively this wouldn’t be an issue because Bowdoin plays the 2-3 almost exclusively, but spacing is can be an issue on offense. But, much like the Indiana Pacers last season — Indiana’s starting five had the best +/- of any team in the NBA by a considerable margin in 2012-13 — right now Bowdoin’s starters have been incredibly effective as a unit. And, as a result, the Polar Bears are enjoying their best start in school history as they prepares for their biggest test yet against Williams.

This preview was contributed by Peter Lindholm ‘17.5, a long-time follower of Middlebury basketball. 

For the first time in this frustrating 2014 season, the magic of the last four years was palpable in Pepin Gym on Sunday night.  The first half of Sunday’s game against Tufts followed the same formula as the clinically depressing Bates loss.  Middlebury’s interior defense was paper thin, with Tufts freshman Hunter Sabety playing the role of paper shredder, with 16 first half points (on 8-8 shooting), and the Panthers trailed 38-35.

The second half however, was a different story.  The Panthers showed the mental fortitude that has characterized the Middlebury teams of the last six years.  After Sabety and James Jensen got tangled up early in the second half, Middlebury dominated the rest of the way, ultimately winning 80-66.  As the second half went on, the crowd in Pepin seemed to lift the team higher and higher.  It was certainly possible to see this team as the next generation in the proud basketball tradition that Middlebury has developed.

Following an 81-69 win over perennial cupcake Lyndon State, Friday’s game at Wesleyan is the perfect chance for Middlebury to continue this newfound success.  But it won’t just happen magically.  Middlebury has to continue the good things that we saw against Tufts, particularly the defensive intensity, the cohesiveness of the new lineup, and the play of Dylan Sinnickson.

The second half of the Tufts game was marked by effort and intensity on the defensive end.  Jeff Brown tried a number of different matchups on Sabety in the first half, with little success.  The matchup that finally stopped the big freshman was Matt Daley, who used his extensive wingspan to half-front Sabety, making interior touches far more difficult.  Jake Brown also played stellar on ball defense against Tufts’ perimeter threats. This defense will need to continue against Wesleyan.  Sophomore forward Rashid Epps is averaging 11.5 points and a league leading 10.6 rebounds per game.  Boxing him out and limiting his inside catches will be imperative for a win.  Middlebury will also have to limit penetration, so Epps doesn’t get layups off passes from slashing guards.  Stopping the penetration and limiting Epps’ catches will also prevent Wesleyan from getting open threes off of inside-out movement, something they are dangerous at, averaging 11.5 made threes in NESCAC play thus far.

Middlebury came out against Tufts with a new look.  Jake Brown and Dylan Sinnickson replaced Jensen and freshman Matt St. Amour in the starting lineup.  These changes were important for a couple of reasons.  First, the emergence of Jake Brown at the point allowed Joey Kizel to play off the ball and focus more on scoring, clearly the best part of his game.  Also, Jensen and St Amour will be able to come off the bench and change the pace of the game with Jensen’s athleticism and St Amour’s scoring ability.  For the first time all year, the Panthers seem to have a lineup which is both cohesive together and versatile in its lineup options.

However, the effectiveness of this lineup, and the team in general, is dependent on Dylan Sinnickson.  His athleticism bolsters the rebounding and defense, his improved shooting touch spreads the floor, and his mere presence allows Jensen to come off the bench as an energy boost, where I believe he is best served.   Sinnickson came back from an absence against Bates with 23 points, but some questionable decisions, probably due to overcompensation for his absence.  He scored 15 against Tufts, with 5 rebounds, and looked much more settled in the offense.  Sinnickson’s versatility and skills are vital to Middlebury’s success against Wesleyan, and in the rest of NESCAC play.

For Middlebury to come back from this slow start and make a run in the NESCAC’s, every game is vital.  Against Tufts, young players like Daley, Brown and St Amour took great steps forward, and established players like Kizel (17) and Merriman (15) continued their strong play.  The Panthers need that balance from here on out.  Wesleyan is 0-2 in NESCAC, but they’ve played Amherst and Bowdoin, the cream of this year’s crop.  They will be hungry for a signature win against a power player like Middlebury, and they have a strong inside presence in Epps and outside threats in Harry Rafferty (13.0) and Joe Edmonds (10.2 and a 41.3% mark from downtown).  This game could either be another building block on Middlebury’s path to redemption, or another nail in their coffin.

January 12, 2014, 4:00 pm
Middlebury (6-5, 0-1) vs. Tufts (6-5, 0-0)
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Over the past three seasons, there has been a clear cream of the NESCAC crop. Between the 2010-2013 seasons, Middlebury, Amherst and Williams combined for eight top-three finishes and all three conference championships. This year a handful of squads look to crash the championship party, and one team poised to do so is the Tufts Jumbos.

Three years ago the Jumbos were a mediocre squad, going 4-5 in conference, suffering blowouts to the NESCAC’s top teams. The next season, 2011-2012, Tufts improved to 6-4 in conference in a down year for Williams, placing fourth in the league, but still failed to compete with Middlebury and Amherst.

Finally, in 2012-2013, Tufts gave a top team a scare, losing by a point when Middlebury’s James Jensen swatted a last second jumper. The Jumbos’ only conference losses last season came against Middlebury and Williams at home and on the road at Amherst. In their third straight postseason appearance, Tufts again fell to Amherst on the road, 80-64, in the NESCAC Semifinals. They finished the year at 17-9 overall and 7-3 in conference, the most conferences victories for the program since 2004-2005. Tufts is finally putting Titletown on the D3 basketball map (there’s your shameless plug of Boston sports for the week)

Now in his 26th season at the helm of the Jumbos, head coach Bob Sheldon has turned out some impressive recruiting classes over the past decade, which has helped the team reach their current level of relevance. Junior Ben Ferris earned NESCAC Rookie of the Year honors his first season on campus in 2011-2012. That year he tallied 9.6 points per game, 5.1 rebounds per game and 1.3 assists. Last year, as a sophomore, the 6’ 3” guard led the squad in scoring, rebounding, 3-pointers made and steals.

Sheldon’s recruiting prowess continued in 2012-2013 as he brought in the 6’ 8” Massachusetts native Tom Pelleschi to play center. Pelleschi played well early on, but truly emerged once NESCAC play began. While averaging 13.7 points, 6.2 rebounds and 1.9 blocks per game during conference play and shooting at a 57% clip, Pelleschi did enough not only to win NESCAC Rookie of the Year honors (the second straight Jumbo to do so), but also to earn the distinction of D3Hoops.com Northeast Region Rookie of the Year.

Unfortunately, Pelleschi’s career may have come to a sudden end. The dynamic center suffers from an enlarged aorta that will certainly keep him away from the court for the 2013-2014 season and leaves his playing future in significant doubt.

So, the question on the court for the Jumbos at the outset of conference play is how to replace the production of one of the league’s most talented returning centers.

As in the past two seasons, Sheldon has relied on some talented freshman to shoulder a significant load. Only three freshmen will don the baby blue and brown in Medford this year, but two of them stand amongst the league’s tallest. The 6’ 8” Hunter Sabety hails from Oceanside, NY and Drew Madsen, though listed as a 6’ 7” forward, will be among the league’s tallest big men as well. Sabety in particular fits the void left by Palleschi. At 240 pounds, he can bruise underneath but will still bring a good amount of athleticism, and turned down a slew of D1 offers in favor of Tufts. And Sabety has a penchant for winning. As a four-year varsity player and three-year starter, Sabety accrued an 88-33 record and led his high school to a Division 3 State Championship last season. Palleschi has been involved with the team and done his best to bring the young big men along.

Sabety has been everything Coach Sheldon had hoped for and more to start the year. Eleven games into his college career, Sabety is the team’s leading scorer and rebounder despite only playing 20.6 minutes per game, and is a defensive force, racking up 2.3 blocks per game, fourth among NESCAC big men.

The Jumbos frontcourt has been bolstered by the emergence of 6’ 7” senior Tommy Folliard. The Richmond, VA native has more than doubled his scoring from last season, from 5.6 to 12.3, and is a remarkable 21-38 from deep (55%).

Additionally, with a hip stress fracture keeping last year’s leading scorer, Ben Ferris, sidelined until after the new year, 5’ 10” 170 lbs point guard Tarik Smith has logged significant minutes. In 20 minutes per game off the bench, Smith has helped senior Oliver Cohen handle point guard duties and has been deadly efficient from the floor, scoring 10 point per game on 49% shooting and 47% from behind the arc.

Though losing their two men in the middle with the injury to Palleschi and the graduation of Scott Anderson, the Jumbos have returned a dynamic backcourt, where Ferris is joined by sophomore Stephen Haladyna. The 6’5” Haladyna was third on the team in scoring last season, dropping 10.2 per game. What’s more, Oliver Cohen, who logged more minutes than any other returner from last year and led the team in assists, has stepped right back into his point guard role, and leads the team with 5 assists per game. Additionally, the voluntary departure of would-be junior guard CJ Moss, who played over 23 minutes per game last year and started in all 17 of his appearances, put more pressure on the team’s returning guards. Haladyna and Cohen were expected to shoulder the load early on for the Jumbos with the injury to Ferris and departure of Moss, but an injury of his own kept Haladyna to just six games before the new year. The Jumbos have gotten backcourt production from a long list of names, including the team’s second-leading scorer, senior Kwame Firempong, and from sophomore Ryan Spadaford, who’s played under 20 minutes per game off the bench but has racked up over 10 points per game and is shooting above 50%.

In the team’s first game since the break, the Jumbos (6-5) lost on the road to Rhode Island College (7-5). But, the good news for Coach Bob Sheldon is that he finally got a look at the rotation that will carry the Jumbos through conference play, barring further injuries. Haladyna took the court for the first time in weeks, and Ferris for the first time all year, playing 28 minutes. Both showed signs of rust, but there is no question of their ability once they get in a rhythm.

At the season’s outset, the loss of Palleschi seemed like a monstrous void to fill. But with the emergence of Folliard and the instant success of Sabety, accompanied by the legion of experienced and inexperienced guards playing big minutes and producing for the Jumbos, Tufts seems to be rounding into form at the perfect time, before their first conference matchup with Middlebury in central VT. The biggest issue for Tufts thus far has been defense. Though fourth in the league in scoring, Tufts is also fourth-to-last in points allowed. Hopefully for the Jumbos, the return of Ferris will improve their perimeter defense that will have an affect on all other parts of their game. What’s more, if Sabety can refrain from the foul trouble he’s often gotten himself into, he is poised to make a Palleschi-esque leap in terms of production in conference play and potentially earn the Jumbos’ third straight NESCAC Rookie of the Year honor. Tufts will need continued strong play from the frontcourt to complement their guards if they hope to make the team’s first trip to the NCAA Tournament since 2005-2006 and dethrone the triumvirate of Middlebury, Amherst and Williams.

Aaron Liebowitz of the Tufts Daily contributed to this post

Through its first 10 games this season the Middlebury men’s basketball team is 6-4 and decidedly mediocre. Just how atypical has this season been in the context of recent history? Prior to this season, Middlebury had gone five straight seasons without dropping a game in the first semester of play. And to find the last time the Panthers lost four games before the start of NESCAC play, you have to go back to the 2004 season when Middlebury finished 6-18. It’s safe to say that things have not gone according to plan for Jeff Brown and the 2013-14 Panthers.

But while the problem—Middlebury’s ghastly shooting woes—is easily diagnosed, the root of the problem, and therefore any tangible solutions, are far more difficult to identify. It is especially hard to explain the team’s struggles because, in the context of the season, they do not make very much sense. The Panthers went into the break following their most impressive offensive performance of the season—an 89-84 win over Skidmore in a hostile environment. In that game, Middlebury shot 47 percent from the floor—and 54 percent in the second half—while making 10-22 threes and 23 of 27 free throws, including all 14 attempts in the second half. In the two games since then, the Panthers have shot 30 percent (30-114) from the floor and have made just 7 of their 36 (19%) three point attempts. Many different theories for the team’s struggles have been suggested, some of which are worth exploring in further detail.

POSSIBLE EXPLANATIONS

1) Middlebury lost too much from last year’s team
The team’s struggles early in the year illuminate just how impressive the consistency Andrew Locke, Ryan Sharry, Nolan Thompson, Jake Wolfin, Peter Lynch and many others brought to the program was. Of all the many achievements those players accomplished, their ability to compete on a nightly basis with every team they faced is one for which they should always be remembered. Of the 10 games the class of 2013 lost in their final three seasons at Middlebury, they were within a possession with less than minute to play. But while the 2013-14 team has lacked that level of consistency (and really any at all to this point), the issues go far beyond what the team lost in Thompson, Wolfin and Lynch. Jeff and I agree that last year’s team missing those three players likely would have produced better performances against Salve Regina and Plattsburgh State and, especially in the case of the former, likely won the game in spite of their absence. This iteration of the Panthers is far too talented to lose to Salve Regina and Plattsburgh in the manner that they did. While some degree of inconsistency was expected from this team given the number of inexperienced players upon whom it would rely, consecutive lackluster performances of this magnitude where the loss was all but determined with three minutes left in the game cannot be explained away by the absences of Thompson, Wolfin and Lynch.

2) Lack of effort
Though the Panthers have looked flat in each of the past two games, it’s hard to attribute that to a lack of effort. While the offense has tanked, the Panthers have turned in two of their best defensive performances of the season in the losses. Green Mountain aside, Middlebury held Salve Regina and Plattsburgh to the third and first lowest scoring outputs, respectively, of any opponent they’ve played and held both teams to less than 40 percent shooting from the floor. If the belief that defensive intensity is a strong indicator of effort, then it is impossible to fault the Panthers for their effort over the past two games.

3) Missing offensive identity
Tuesday’s game was basketball torture if you enjoy watching clean, well-run sets in the half court. The Middlebury offense stagnated for long stretches of time, with little or meaningless ball movement and a dearth of touches inside for bigs Matt Daley and Jack Roberts. Joey Kizel had a tremendous first half (10 points on 3-4 shooting), but struggled in the second half, making just one of six shot attempts while turning the ball over twice and recording just one assist. The struggles were not unique to Kizel, but indicative of the team’s play overall. The Panthers are struggling from a lack of spacing offensively, though it’s difficult to say whether the poor shooting is causing spacing problems or vice versa. Given Middlebury’s play at Skidmore and the quality attempts they took (and missed) against Salve Regina, i’m inclined to believe that their shooting woes have affected their spacing and not the other way around. Which brings us to…

4) Bad luck
Any stretch of wins or losses is usually aided or exacerbated by luck, good and bad. In both losses, the Panthers missed a multitude of shots, both near the basket and from distance that they would normally make. Teams don’t often go through team-wide struggles all at the same time, as the Panthers have in their first two games back from winter break. As a team they will regress toward the mean from beyond the arc (they can’t shoot 19 percent the rest of the season, though they’re shooting just 34 percent on the season) and certain players/lineups will emerge as the season progresses and the team finds its rhythm. Having said that, it’s impossible to attribute the way Middlebury lost to luck. In a one-possession game, luck can play a huge role; it cannot account for consecutive losses by an average of 11.5 points. Furthermore, in the past, Jeff Brown’s teams have overcome stretches of bad luck, either by winning ugly or giving themselves a chance to win and falling short. Thus far, this team has not been able to do that consistently, with a number of these factors playing a role in their performance over the past week.

SOLUTIONS

While it would be nearly impossible for the Panthers to continue to play as poorly as they have, that provides little reassurance for a team that must play by far its best basketball over the toughest part of its schedule to have any hope of challenging for a NESCAC title and a bid to the NCAA tournament. (Thinking big picture for a moment, short of winning the NESCAC tournament and receiving the automatic qualifier, Middlebury likely needs to go 8-2 or 9-1 and advance to at least the NESCAC semifinals, but more likely the finals, to have any chance of making the NCAA Tournament).

How is that going to happen? Well, for one, some consistency shooting the ball would go a long way, both because it is highly beneficial in and of itself, but also because if Kizel, Merryman and St. Amour can stretch the floor they would clear space for Daley, Roberts and James Jensen to operate in the post. Daley in particular looked effective when he got touches in Tuesday’s game and should play a bigger role as he returns to form. Dylan Sinnickson’s return, which could happen tonight, should also provide a considerable boost for Middlebury’s offense. Sinnickson hasn’t played since November 16, when he scored 22 points in Middlebury’s 96-89 win over Baruch after taking a leave of absence from the team for personal reasons. In addition to providing greater athleticism and dynamism on the break, Sinnickson appeared to provide Middlebury with another three-point threat, having made five of his seven three-point attempts this season, including four of five against Baruch.

Sinnicksnon’s return gives Jeff Brown another offensive weapon to mix and match in different lineups and maximizing the production of different players on the floor will be a considerable challenge going forward. In Tuesday’s game against Plattsburgh, the Panthers made their run in the second half with Kizel, Jake Brown, Nate Bulluck, Daley and Roberts on the floor—a five-man lineup that may not have logged any minutes previously. Though the lineup played incredibly effectively together—particularly on the defensive end—coach Brown went back to his starters shortly after, only to watch Plattsburgh extend its lead back to double digits. Balancing when to play the best players versus the best lineup is an incredibly difficult task for any coach (and of course there’s no guarantee that the Brown-Kizel-Bulluck-Daley-Roberts lineup would have continued to be successful), but given the make up of this team (both in terms of its depth and its issues with consistency) Jeff Brown will have to be masterful in his understanding of when to ride certain lineups and when to go back to rely on his more conventional game plan.

NO TIME LIKE THE PRESENT

Four pre-NESCAC losses have not inspired a great deal of confidence in this team’s ability to beat quality opponents (and they face one tonight in Bates), but those losses have not adversely affected Middlebury’s chances of achieving its goals in conference play, which tips off tonight. In Bates (7-4), the Panthers face a team that can beat opponents in a variety of ways, in large part due to the emergence of 6’1” guard Graham Safford who has erupted as a NESCAC Player of the Year candidate in his junior season. Safford is second in the NESCAC in scoring, averaging nearly 22 points per game on 49/40/75 shooting splits to go along with 5.7 assist per game as he assumed most of the ball handling duties in point guard Luke Matarazzo’s absence. He’s complemented by 6’5” guard/forward Mike Boornazian, who has been more efficient, if less prolific, than Stafford, averaging 18.5 points per game, while compiling a shooting line of 50/43/80.

Unfortunately for the Bobcats, the offensive well just about runs dry after their pair of elite scorers with no other player averaging more than 8.4 points per game. On the other end, however, the Delpeche twins (freshmen Malcolm and Marcus—6’8” and 6’7”, respectively) provide rim protection (both average more than a block per game while playing fewer than 20 minutes per game) for a Bates team that is holding opponents to 67 points per game on 40.5 percent shooting from the floor. Much like Middlebury should see an improvement offensively from the return of Dylan Sinnickson, the Bobcats will be bolstered by Mattarazzo’s reintroduction into the lineup. Undersized at 5’9”, Matarazzo relies on his ball handling and quickness to beat defenders off the dribble and typically uses penetration to set up teammates rather than find his own shot. He gave the Panthers fits a year ago when Middlebury played at Bates; depending on his game-readiness (he played just 14 minutes in the Bobcats’ loss to Brandeis on Tuesday), he could provide a matchup issue again, though the Panthers should be better prepared to check him with the quickness of Jake Brown.

Bates will provide a strong test of Middlebury’s ability to execute in the half court. The Bobcats are averaging just 13.6 turnovers per game and have the athletes and speed to slow the Panthers down on the break. Where Bates is vulnerable is its lack of front court depth. The Bobcats rely on a trio of freshmen (the Delpeches and 6’7” center Max Eaton) to check opposing front courts, which is an area Middlebury should be able to exploit with consistent touches for Jensen, Daley and Roberts—though they’ve struggled to generate looks inside consistently. Currently the Panthers appear to be ill-equipped to attempt to match Safford and Boornazian in a backcourt shoot out, but after a week of miserable play, we expect the Panthers to get more out of Kizel, St. Amour and co.

After a devastating start to 2014, Middlebury must right itself tonight against Bates. This is unchartered territory for the Panthers, who are both immensely talented, but also sitting on the precipice of a lost season. How they perform tonight will speak volumes about the remainder of their season.