Middlebury plays in Cortland, New York at 3:00 pm Saturday. The Red Dragons (21-4) are undefeated on their home court (13-0) and have won all but one of those games by double-digits. Cortland relies heavily on the perimeter play of its guards, which as a collective group are among the best in the country. Four players have attempted at least 112 threes, and all of them shoot better than 38% from deep. As a team, Cortland shoots 38.9% from beyond the arc and 48.1% from the field. All 7 of the team’s top scorers from a season ago returned to the team this year, and five of the seven rotation players are seniors — an important factor for postseason play. Middlebury and Cortland faced two common opponents during the regular season: Ursinus and Plattsburgh State. Unfortunately, it’s hard to glean much from the results as Middlebury went 2-0 against the pair, winning close games on the road, while the Red Dragons comfortably beat Ursinus and Plattsburgh (twice) at home, but lost by 3 at Plattsburgh. Interestingly, while Cortland has shot the ball (and played) significantly better at home than on the road, it has nothing to do with their spacious gym, which holds 3,500 people, but has averaged just 380 fans per game. For context, Middlebury’s average attendance this season is 786, or 66% of Pepin’s capacity, compared to just 10.8% of Whitney T. Corey Gymnasium. Rabid fans or not, handing Cortland its first home loss of the season will be tough. Senior leadership and superior perimeter talent have carried the team to the most wins in program history. From our research and (limited) visual analysis, here are our first impressions of Cortland’s most significant players.

 

5’11” G Jesse Winter (15.1 ppg, 46 FG/39 3PT/82 FT): Winter is the leader of this Cortland offense. His offensive game reminds us of Aaron Toomey’s style of play. A dynamic scorer, Winter is most dangerous when he attacks the defense. From the heart of the floor he is a great distributor and a capable finisher. When defenses give help from the wings, he finds open looks for his teammates, and when they stay at home he continues at the basket, with the preponderance of plays ending either with a made basket or Winter at the line shooting free throws. Free throw shooting is an important element of Winter’s game. In 28 games this season, he has taken 131 free throws — 28 more than Joey Kizel, who leads the Panthers with 103 in 26 games. (For further context, Toomey has taken 120 free throws in 27 games.) Winter is an aggressive player in all facets of the game, including as a passer. He is intentional offensively, and looks to make plays in transition. To be successful the Panthers will have to slow him in transition, keep him out of the middle of the defense and stop him from going to the line. That sounds like a job for Nolan Thompson.

6’1” G Jeremy Smith (15.9 ppg, 45/43/85): Smith leads the Red Dragons in scoring and is the best three-point shooter on the team. While primarily a catch-and-shoot scorer, Smith has the quickness, athleticism and ball-handling ability to get into the lane and finish at the rim. He has impressive range and is a zone-breaker all by himself. Middlebury will have to choose the lesser of two evils when guarding Smith, and from what we’ve seen, that means playing him to shoot and challenging him to put the ball on the floor and beat his man with the dribble.

6’3” G/F Brian Manning (11.2 ppg, 44/40/81): Brian Manning is a scoring swingman who comes off the bench but plays starter minutes (26 mpg). In the last two years he has exemplified the sixth man role, scoring the third-most points on the team and shooting 46% from the field despite having never started a game. Manning thrives off the penetration of Winter and Smith, but can create on his own as well. He is a big key for Cortland because he spends a lot of time as the tallest of four guards on the floor when the Red Dragons go into four-guard sets, putting him in a lot of mismatches against opposing forwards. This helps him get open on the perimeter on offense, but should make him a target down low on defense.

6’6” F Kevin McMahon (12.6 ppg, 66/X/70): McMahon is quietly one of the more impressive big men Middlebury has faced all season, as he ranks second in the entire nation in field goal percentage. The senior has a bit of range but does most of his work around the basket, where his presence is also felt on the boards (7.5 rpg) and on defense (1.2 bpg). Very similar in build and stature to Peter Lynch, McMahon is not so much of a focal point of the offense as Lynch is for the Panthers, but he is as good of a complementary big man as it gets.

6’9” F Dan Sternkopf (2.1 ppg, 58/X/40):  The senior center Sternkopf plays just 14 minutes per game despite starting. His 25 made field goals all season suggest a severely limited offensive game, but his 1.2 blocks per contest are quite impressive considering the playing time factor. We expect Sternkopf to be called upon to stop Jack Roberts and Peter Lynch at times, but whenever he is on offense, his man will be asked to roam because Sternkopf is a small enough threat to be left alone.

6’3” G Harrison Hefele (9.8 ppg, 49/38/60): Hefele is a versatile three-guard who can play inside and outside, making him a unique threat in this offense. He scores efficiently when called upon, and also puts up 4.7 rebounds, 2.4 assists, and 1.3 steals per game.

6’1” G Lamard Herron (7.6, ppg, 50/36/71): Herron is the lone underclassmen (sophomore) in the rotation, and his talent appears to warrant his playing time (22 mpg). Herron is first on the team in steals (1.9 spg), and is coming off of a 20 point performance in the first round win over Elms, shooting 8-10 from the floor and 2-3 from three.

Going through the matchups:

The difficulty of guarding Cortland State lies in their ability to play 4 guards on the court at once, all of whom can shoot the three. The two guys over 6’3” in the rotation—McMahon and Sternkopf—average 43 combined minutes per game, whereas the five other rotation mainstays average 139 combined minutes per game. Thus, 76% of minutes among Cortland’s expected big-game rotation go to guards, which means that if they stick to that rotation and timeshare, the Red Dragons will spend 32 minutes with four guards on the court. This is a unique challenge that few teams have been able to answer this season, because it is so rare to have four guys who can stop such a talented stable of guards, and who can maintain a high level of offensive play on the other end. The fact that McMahon, often the lone big man on the court, is so hard to stop makes the matchup even more challenging, but it is the guards who make this team especially dangerous.

Cortland may have an advantage on the outside, but in some ways this game feels designed to the strengths of Peter Lynch and, in particular, James Jensen. While four-guard sets have undoubtedly given other teams matchup problems, Cortland’s offensive design appears to play right into the defensive teeth of the Panthers. Jensen’s versatility on defense and his explosiveness and leaping ability on offense will negate some of what Cortland can do with that fourth guard. Jensen has guarded point guards and shooters before this season, so Cortland will not be able to take advantage of a big mismatch like they so often do. On offense, Jensen will almost certainly have a 3-inch height advantage on his man in these situations, and the Panthers will look inside to him to score down low. Jensen’s value lies in his versatility; in a game like this, if he steps up to the opportunity, he could play 30+ minutes. Next to him down low for much of the game will be Peter Lynch, who has been tremendous against smaller defensive lineups, torching teams consistently all season that haven’t been able to keep him out of the lane. McMahon will have a hard time slowing down Lynch in the post, and as long as he stays out of foul trouble, Lynch should be a big part of Middlebury’s offensive success. With Jensen on the fourth guard and Lynch on McMahon, Jack Roberts will likely mirror Sternkopf’s minutes and also spell Lynch for stretches. The playing time of Middlebury’s fourth forward, Hunter Merryman, depends on whether the coaches believe he can stick with any of the guards on defense. If he can, Merryman should feast on the mismatches on the other end.

While Middlebury’s frontcourt has much to look forward to in this matchup, the backcourt is playing the underdog role in their positional matchup, as the Cortland guards will be very tough to slow down. It all starts with Winter, and for that reason, we expect Nolan Thompson to start the game on the 5’11” senior. The main objective with Winter is to prevent his dribble penetration, because the Red Dragon offense is predicated on the open looks Winter can find once he draws help. If Thompson keeps Winter on the perimeter, the next challenge for Middlebury will be sticking with the guards through extended offensive sets. Winter, Smith, and co. are great and quick passers, and their off the ball movement creates a lot of open threes. This style of play demands discipline and heady play from Middlebury’s guards. Finally, Kizel and Wolfin will have to keep their guards in front of them with the ball in their hands. We can foresee a scenario where Smith steps into Winter’s drive-and-kick role if Thompson guards Winter. The other challenge that the Cortland guards present is the fastbreak, where their passing, vision, and quickness are on full display. Kizel, Wolfin, and Thompson must be aware of this threat and play safety for the defense to force Cortland into the halfcourt offense.

Forecast:

Cortland State is the best non-conference opponent Middlebury has faced in the last two seasons. Their guards have been too much to handle for pretty much every team they have faced thus far, and if they get out in the fastbreak or get hot from three, there are few teams who can stick with them, especially on their home court. Given the fact that Middlebury has been unable to put together many near-40 minute performances this season, we expect the Cortland runs to be especially difficult to sustain. These factors help account for the fact that the well-respected Massey Ratings system gives Cortland State a 79% chance to win this game. Middlebury’s season is on the ropes. In my view, the Cortland guards will be too much to handle and they will pull away with stretches of near-unstoppable offense, while Middlebury’s problems with consistency will remain. In Damon’s view, Thompson will force their offense out of its rhythm, and the Jensen and Lynch factors will carry Middlebury to victory.

Middlebury opens the NCAA Tournament this evening at home against Curry College. Curry went 21-7 during the season, and 15-3 in the Commonwealth Coast Conference (CCC). While the CCC isn’t the most difficult conference to win, Curry proved over the course of the season that it could play with some of the best teams in the Northeast region. Just a year removed from a 29-point beatdown received at the hand of Middlebury, the Colonels demonstrated that they could play with the upper echelon of teams in the NESCAC and the NEWMAC. Curry lost 4 of its first 7 games of the season, but the losses came against Amherst (117-96), WPI (83-76), MIT (71-63) and Williams (97-93). The followed four tough losses with an 81-78 win over Wesleyan at home. As you can tell, Curry can score the basketball. The Colonels averaged 81.5 points per game on a .482/.402/.715 (FG/3PT/FT) line for the season. Bad offensive teams that play at a fast pace often average a lot of points. What that line tells you, however, is that isn’t the case for Curry. The Colonels offensive numbers compare favorably to Middlebury’s offensive totals: 79.6 points per game on .496/.390/.739 shooting stats. And while Middlebury played better competition over the course of the season, Curry demonstrated that they can be just as explosive offensively against the top competition Middlebury played against.

What a difference a year makes

These two teams played as recently as December of 2011. Middlebury won that game 83-54. Unfortunately, that tells us very little about today’s game. Then, Curry was 2-6 and headed for an 11-15 season, 9-9 in CCC play. Only 2 of Curry’s current top-6 rotation players played real minutes in the game, and Middlebury received 22 points from Ryan Sharry on 8-11 shooting from the floor.

Since then, Curry has evolved into a dangerous offensive team, led by three talented scorers. Sedale Jones — recently named the CCC Player of the Year — Lambros Papalambros (a 1st Team All-CCC selection) and AJ Stephens (second team) combine to score 55 of the team’s 81.5 points per game. In three games against NESCAC teams this year, Jones is averaging 32.7 points per game on .561/.500/.793 shooting splits. He is a Division I talent and appears to play his best game against the best competition.

Perhaps even more intriguing than Jones is Lambros Papalambros. In 28 games this season Papalambros is averaging 16 points per game, 4.5 rebounds and 3.9 assists. At 6’4” he’s taller than your average Division III point guard, and a better shooter too. The Massachusetts native shoots 52.6% from the floor and 42.3% from beyond the arc.

Rounding out the top three is AJ Stephens, a 6’5, 255-pound bruiser, who has a similar build (though admittedly wider) to Middlebury’s 6’6”, 215-pound Peter Lynch. At first glance Stephens looks like a (considerably) more skilled version of Weselyan’s Glen Thomas. Stephens averaged 16.9 points per game and 9.9 rebounds while shooting 54% from the field.

Does Curry have the right ingredients to pull off an upset?

In last year’s upset loss to Scranton, Middlebury had difficulty guarding the Royals’ bigger guards who went into the post against the Panthers’ smaller trio of Thompson, Wolfin and Kizel. The Colonels run a similar three guard set with Jones, Papalambros and Carlos Ribeiro. While Ribeiro is just 5’10” the other two are both 6’4” and shoot a high percentage from the floor. Last week Williams took advantage of Taylor Epley’s height advantage over Nolan Thompson and used their 6’4” forward to post up Middlebury’s Defensive Player of the Year, with far more success than when the Ephs attempted to run Epley off screens and play a primarily perimeter game in the first meeting. Curry has the size on the perimeter to take Middlebury out of its defensive comfort zone. The Colonels can play with the top tier of teams in the country, but sticking with teams and beating teams are two very different things. If Curry beats Middlebury ti will be the result of making small adjustments (like going into the post more) and getting help from a poor Middlebury shooting night.

How the upset happens

Offensive discipline: As already noted, Curry will have to play disciplined basketball to beat Middlebury. Sedale Jones will need to have an efficient shooting night, which will be difficult with Nolan Thompson guarding him (more on this in a minute). Jones will need to facilitate, and limit his turnovers. Jones has done a good job getting his teammates looks this year (3 assists per game) but has tuned the ball over 95 times this season (3.4 per game). With Thompson guarding him, a 30-point outburst from Jones is unlikely. But if he can make the most of his limited looks and find teammates for better looks, he will do more for his team’s win probability than if he enters this game looking to replicate what he did against Amherst and Williams (75 combined points). It will be very interesting to see what his mentality is early in the game, whether he’s looking to find his own shot against the best perimeter defender in the country or if he tries to find his teammates.

Foul trouble: This concerns both teams. For Middlebury, keeping Lynch on the floor and out of foul trouble will be vital. The Panthers’ leading scorer averages just 24 minutes per game because he has been forced to sit for long periods of time due to foul issues. Staying out of foul trouble is a much bigger concern for Curry, however. The Colonels’ rotation only goes 7 deep as two of their senior contributors off the bench, 6’7” center Ted Amendola and 5’11” guard Eric Gugliemello haven’t played in over a month. Jones, Papalambros and Stephens will have to be disciplined on both ends of the floor, as Middlebury does a great job drawing charges defensively and will look to enter the ball inside to Lynch and big Jack Roberts early and often.

Middlebury’s past shooting woes: Over the last four years Middlebury has lost 13 total games. In those 13 losses, Jake Wolfin and Nolan Thompson have combined to shoot 33% (84-252) from the floor and 28% (38-135) from beyond the arc. This isn’t to assess blame — or anything close to it — for those losses, but to suggest that when the Panthers miss open shots — and Wolfin and Thompson are most often the recipients of open looks — they struggle to win games. In those losses, Wolfin shot better than 50% or better from the floor once and Thompson twice, without any overlap. Given that only 4 of the 13 losses (and none of the past 9) were decided before the final minute of regulation, missing open looks for Middlebury has proved incredibly costly.

Why the upset won’t happen

The Thompson Effect: The Middlebury seniors have only lost three times at home in their careers, and have never been ousted in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament. And while Curry provides challenges for the Panthers, they share many of the same qualities (one dominant perimeter player, offensive-minded, poor depth) with teams that have struggled immensely against Middlebury. Thompson plays a huge role in this, as his ability to shut down dominant perimeter scorers can stall an entire offense if the offensive system is built primarily around that player, or two or three guys. In last year’s second round game against Albertus Magnus, Nolan limited Darius Watson (a guy’s whose stats this year look eerily similar to Sedale Jones’s) to 11 points on 5-16 shooting, though most of those came in garbage time once the game was out of hand (Watson had 0 at half-time and had attempted just 3 shots). The year before that, in the opening round of the tournament, Nolan held Western Connecticut State’s DaQuan Brooks (he of the 45-point second half) to 11 points of 5-13 shooting in another Middlebury blowout.

Curry’s defensive struggles: Peter Kaasila and Michael Mayer combined to score 48 points on 17 of 24 shooting from the floor. Curry’s center Ted Amendola played in both of those games, but has not played since January 31st. Lynch scored 13 points on perfect 6-6 shooting in the game between these teams last year while Sharry finished 8-11 (as noted above). Given the success of the Kaasila and Mayer, Lynch should be able to take advantage of space to operate, much like he did against Williams last weekend, when he scored 23 points and pulled down 12 rebounds while shooting 10-17 from the floor.

Middlebury’s track record: Over the past four years the Panthers are 55-0 against everyone in the NESCAC not named Williams or Amherst. They have routinely dominated lesser competition, and though Curry has the talent to be a middle-to-upper-tier NESCAC team, it is exactly that kind of team that the Panthers have owned, particularly at home.

Prediction: Middlebury 85 – Curry 70

Middlebury in the NCAA Tournament 2:00
NESCAC tournament recap 13:55
NESCAC Awards recap/critique 25:00
Region-by-region bracket breakdown 45:40