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Projecting the NCAA Tournament Teams

Screen shot 2013-02-24 at 7.46.18 PMTomorrow at 12:30 PM, the NCAA Selection Committee will announce the 62-team field for this year’s 2013 D3 Championship Tournament. There are 42 teams automatically-qualified based on conference championships (Pool A), 1 non-automatic-qualifying conference championship (Pool B), and 19 at-large bids. The first 42 teams will be known to everyone by tonight as conference tournaments wind down, but the final 20 will be decided upon based on a variety of factors (for more details on this process, see here). Middlebury, of course, is hoping to grab a Pool C bid. Below, we have listed the 42 Automatic Qualifiers, and made our projections for the final 20 spots. The predictions are based on who we expect to make the tournament, not who we think ought to make the tournament. Pool C is listed in the order we expect them to be placed.

Allegheny Mountain Collegiate Conference: Penn State-Behrend (20-8)
American Southwest Conference: Texas-Dallas (23-5)
Capital Athletic Conference: St. Mary’s (24-3)
Centennial Conference: Dickinson (20-7)
City University of New York Athletic Conference: Staten Island (22-5)
College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin: North Central (Ill.) (24-3)
Colonial States Athletic Conference: Cabrini (22-5)
Commonwealth Coast Conference: Curry (21-7)
Empire 8: Ithaca (19-8)
Great Northeast Athletic Conference: Albertus Magnus (24-4)
Heartland Collegiate Athletic Conference: Rose-Hulman (24-3)
Iowa Intercollegiate Athletic Conference: Dubuque (21-7)
Landmark Conference: Catholic (24-3)
Liberty League: Hobart (21-6)
Little East Conference: Rhode Island College (25-3)
Massachusetts State College Athletic Conference: Fitchburg St. (16-10)
Michigan Intercollegiate Athletic Association: Calvin (24-3)
Middle Atlantic Commonwealth: Alvernia (23-4)
Middle Atlantic Freedom: Delaware Valley (19-8)
Midwest Conference: St. Norbert (20-5)
Minnesota Intercollegiate Athletic Conference: St. Thomas (26-1)
New England Collegiate Conference: Elms (17-9)
New England Small College Athletic Conference: Amherst (25-2)
New England Women’s and Men’s Athletic Conference: WPI (25-2)
New Jersey Athletic Conference: Ramapo (23-4)
North Atlantic Conference: Husson (20-8)
North Coast Athletic Conference: Ohio Wesleyan (22-5)
North Eastern Athletic Conference: Morrisville State (21-5)
Northern Athletics Conference: Aurora (22-6)
Northwest Conference: Whitworth (24-3)
Ohio Athletic Conference: Marietta (20-7)
Old Dominion Athletic Conference: Randolph-Macon (19-9)
Presidents Athletic Conference: St. Vincent (23-5)
St. Louis Intercollegiate Athletic Conference: Spalding (20-7)
Skyline Conference: SUNY-Purchase (22-5)
Southern California Intercollegiate Athletic Conference: Redlands (22-5)
Southern Collegiate Athletic Conference: Trinity (Tex.) (20-7)
State University of New York Athletic Conference: Cortland (23-4)
University Athletic Association: Wash U (20-5)
Upper Midwest Athletic Conference: Northwestern (Minn.) (21-6)
USA South Athletic Conference: Christopher Newport (21-5)
Wisconsin Intercollegiate Athletic Conference: UW Whitewater (23-4)

Centre (21-5)*
*We have a limited understanding of Pool B; thanks to Pat Coleman for the help.

POOL C* (Conference, Region)

  1. UW-Stevens Point (WIAC, West) (21-5)
  2. Williams (NESCAC, Northeast) (23-4)
  3. Illinois Wesleyan (CCIW, Midwest) (21-5)
  4. Rochester (UAA, East) (21-4)
  5. Middlebury (NESCAC, Northeast) (22-2)
  6. Virginia Wesleyan (ODAC, South) (19-6)
  7. MIT (NEWMAC, Northeast) (20-5)
  8. Wooster (NCAC, Great Lakes) (23-5)
  9. Mary Hardin-Baylor (ASC, South) (23-5)
  10. Wheaton (CCIW, Midwest) (20-6)
  11. Emory (UAA, South) (19-6)
  12. SUNY-Old Westbury (Sky, Atlantic) (22-4)
  13. Springfield (NEWMAC, Northeast) (19-8)
  14. Hampden-Sydney (ODAC, South) (23-4)
  15. Plattsburgh State (SUNYAC, East) (19-8)
  16. Wesley (CAC, Mid-Atlantic) (20-7)
  17. Transylvania (HCAC, Midwest) (20-7)
  18. Albright (MAC, Mid-Atlantic) (20-6)
  19. Stevens (E8, East) (22-5)

*Thanks to the indispensably valuable contributions of “Titan Q” of (see here) and the Forever Faithful Blog’s regional rankings page.


  1. wrote:

    I have this sinking feeling that the NCAA in its wisdom will put us on a bus to Rochester. Please let me be wrong.

    Monday, February 25, 2013 at 5:49 am | Permalink
  2. wrote:

    Others share that feeling, but it’s very unlikely in the first round. They could be a very tough sweet 16 draw.

    Monday, February 25, 2013 at 5:50 am | Permalink
  3. wrote:

    Love to see our Boys in Rochester-where Nolan has already locked down DiBart. (reference the sweet 16 of ’11) or just having an overrated U.ofR. group anywhere, but if that’s happening it won’t be in 1st or 2d round. Have not been on their bandwagon all year -and their inability to to earn W’s on the road, late, backs up my theory. 12 of their first 14 were at home, and the UAA isn’t like the eastern conf. of the nba. More likely in ncaa tradition they will keep us apart from Amherst or Wms. till late in the brackets, but know that on one side or the other we’re going to have to beat one to get to Atlanta (they won’t put 3 teams on the same side of the bracket) Depending on how they bracket WPI and RIC, my take is they will be the key on March 16th to us getting to Salem. Both of those are tougher outs than Rochester. I’d prefer WPI because Bob Walsh has 7 straight bids going and think they play better defense, especially with preparation (of course they have to, because they can’t score some nights). The other thing I’m wondering is how far the WPI frosh can go. Veteran experience at this time of year not to be underestimated. In teams we won’t see in the opening round- Morrisville (last year at Pepin); AlMag (ditto); Husson (too far), Ithaca (ditto). Might get Curry; Rutg-Nwk;(any njac team is a tough match-up); Suny-Purch. or Stevens, all within the mileage limit, and east of the Hudson. Of those prefer Curry. But we’ll know shortly. Clubbo.

    Monday, February 25, 2013 at 10:01 am | Permalink
  4. wrote:

    Good call!

    Tuesday, February 26, 2013 at 7:30 pm | Permalink
  5. wrote:

    Dear Nationaslists- one of the keys now is to figure out whether the guru’s at the ncaa hold Midd in higher regard than Cortland State. Even though we’ve got to yake it one game at a time- which is one of jeffB.’s greatest strengths over the past 6 years like Midd’s chances, on several fronts. Unlike you guys who are the stats’ mavens, I try to blend them in to what we might see. Often I’ve seen the other team, but not so in this case so I’m with you on the comparison front. First off any team that’s given up a hundred points 3 times in a season – unless you’re a Grinell- can’t play a lick of defense and is ready to get torched. Joey and Jake and the rest of the Midd Boys (particularly those who need to get some ncaa game experience) will appreciate the game tempo, the open floor and the uncontested looks that only build confidence. And Sedale Jones’ intro to Nolan does not bode well for his stats, (check Darius Watson of AlMag last year or Martin of Keene St. recently). Point is without his major contribution at 22ppg, their ‘O’ ought to go “clunk-clunk” expanding our margin. Midd should move on by somewhere well into DD’s. Plan to be at Pepin for the game and at TwoBros. at 4:45 for warm-ups. Talk soon. Clubbo.

    Tuesday, February 26, 2013 at 8:56 pm | Permalink

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