Over the last four years, the Middlebury student body has embraced the success of the men’s basketball team, which has won more games than any other Division III team over that period. That support is particularly evident during J-Term, when, unlike students at many other schools who are still on winter vacation, the Middlebury student body is at full capacity and has time to spare. Given the popularity of last year’s team, it’s fair to expect that droves of students will be attending just about every home game from here on out. With that in mind, we decided to compile a list of some of the small things that this team, and individual players do so well. If you’re heading to tonight’s game, or the Wesleyan game tomorrow, here are a couple of things to keep an eye on.

1) How Nolan Thompson defends ball screens: Nolan is, quite simply, as good a perimeter defender as I’ve seen at any level of basketball. Number 25 is as consistent a player as you will see, and does almost everything well on the defensive end. Having said that, his ability to slip through ball screens is exceptional and stands out when you watch him play. Because he is so often asked to guard the best scorer on the other team, Nolan frequently guards guys who are constantly around the ball and often coming off of ball screens. A large part of being a great defender is positioning in anticipation of the play around you. Nolan’s ability to get under or over screens without losing his defensive leverage is all about positioning and anticipation. Before an opposing player can set a pick on Nolan, he either steps inside the screen, hugging his man without fouling or retreats underneath the incoming screen, rendering the pick irrelevant without sacrificing his defensive positioning or giving his man a lane to the basket. If you appreciate basketball, and the intricacies of how the game is played, Nolan Thompson is as fun to watch as it gets.

2) Peter Lynch’s footwork in the post: An undersized power forward, Lynch is generously listed at 6’6”, making his style of play that much more impressive. As a junior last year Lynch shot better than 63% from the field, the best mark in the NESCAC. While Lynch is one of the strongest players in the conference, trailing possibly only Amherst’s Pete Kaasila in brawn, it’s his footwork that separates him from other post-up players. Consider for a moment that Kaasila, who’s 6’9” and 260 pounds scored just 6.8 points per game last season while shooting 57% from the floor. Lynch meanwhile, scored 9.8 points per game and was the most  efficient big man in the conference. This year both big men are shooting better than 66% from the floor, but Lynch is averaging nearly five points per game more. The difference between Lynch and Kaasila — the three inches and 45 pounds aside — is in their footwork. Kaasila is a good finisher and has an array of post moves, including a deft hook shot, but does not have the foot speed or the balance that Lynch has. Lynch’s ability to maneuver in the post is so good, it can get him into trouble — he was called for four travels in the Panthers’ recent win over Bates. “Pete’s footwork is so advanced that referees are occasionally perplexed by it,” said assistant coach Alex Popp. “Coach Russ Reilly is the best big man coach in Division III basketball, and he has worked with Lynch and his footwork for four years.”

3) The court vision of Jake Wolfin: It’s hard to say that there’s a common misconception about something related to Middlebury sports, because that requires there to be a collective opinion about the particularities of Middlebury sports and that’s a stretch. However, during my time covering Middlebury sports, the player who students most often misunderstand is Wolfin. They think he turns the ball over too much, or shoots too many quick jumpers. Well, last season Wolfin led the NESCAC in assists (5.2 per game) and had the fifth best assist-to-turnover ratio in the conference, ahead of 1st team NESCAC selections Aaron Toomey and Shasha Brown. Of course Wolfin turns the ball over, but far too many people are concerned primarily with his turnover rate. What they don’t see is what Jake sees — and that makes him different. Number 5 has NBA-level court vision and is the primary reason Middlebury scores so efficiently from the floor. He passes teammates open and is second to none when he’s leading the break, which includes his pull up jumpers in transition (PUJIT), which are, contrary to popular belief, an effective transition shot. First, PUJITs expand the floor and keep defenders from collapsing the lane; second, when Wolfin takes a jumper on the fast break, it almost always comes in rhythm and when he has a clean, open look at the basket, which means he’s more likely to make the shot. With Wolfin shooting 39% from three on the season, the pull up three is a good shot. And finally, if he does miss, his teammates running down the court are in great rebounding position to collect the loose ball.

4) James Jensen’s defensive versatility: Jensen will receive strong consideration next year for NESCAC Defensive Player of the Year. He is the NESCAC version of Tayshaun Prince: his length and quickness allow him to guard everything from interior post players who play with their back to the basket to ultra-quick point guards — both of which he has guarded this season. Amherst forward and reigning NESCAC Defensive Player of the Year Willy Workman is the only other NESCAC player for whom that’s true; Jensen is in rare company. With plus defenders in Kizel and Wolfin, Middlebury already has a good defensive backcourt. Adding Thompson and Jensen into the mix is hardly fair. Both can guard just about any kind of backcourt player, and Jensen’s ability extends into the front court. The number of guys he can’t guard fits on one hand. In particular, watch him next time he lines up opposite the opposing point guard. Notice how he stays low, maintains his defensive stance and uses his legs first to stay in front of his man before using his arms to disrupt the passing lane and affect shots.

5) Joey Kizel’s finishing ability: Kizel can score in so many different ways. He can get to the basket, where he finishes as well as any guard in the conference. Though he’s a selective shooter, Kizel takes, and makes, a high number of shots with an incredibly high degree of difficulty. In particular, Kizel has mastered the step back jumper, which he often utilizes from the elbow area late in the shot clock to get enough separation to release his shot. If you’ve read this blog, then you know that Kizel had an incredibly efficient season last year, posting a .537/.506/.912 line (FG/3PT/FT percentage). Exactly zero NBA players in history, according to basketballreference.com have finished a season shooting better than 53% from the floor, 50% from three and 91% from the line as Kizel did last season. Only seven players in the history of the NBA have had .500/.400/.900 seasons: Dirk Nowitzki, Mark Price, Kevin Durant, Reggie Miller and Jose Calderon have all done it once, while Larry Bird accomplished it twice and Steve Nash has done it a stunning four times. Of all of them, Nash is the only player in NBA history to finish a season better than .500/.470/.900 (http://bkref.com/tiny/LapyN), but still finished with worse numbers than Kizel in every category. While Kizel doesn’t face the same caliber defense that Nash and others face, and his season is only 30 games long compared to the 82-game NBA schedule, Kizel shot a better free throw percentage — a shot that is no more difficult in the pros than in college — than Nash during his 2007-08 MVP season and exceeded the free throw shooting of seven of the 11 combined seasons between the other guys on the list. If you’re worried about sample size, Kizel made 114 of the 125 free throws he took last year, eclipsing the number of made and attempted free throws of Calderon (109-120) during the 2007-08 season. Popp attributes Kizel’s tremendous success to his methodical approach. “Joey Kizel’s patience to take what the defensive gives him [jumps out at me],” he said. “Coming off a 1st-Team All NESCAC season, you would anticipate a player of his status to look for his own more. Not Kizel. He is as patient as it gets. His unparalleled ability to let plays develop on both ends of the floor is very, very special.”

This Middlebury basketball team separates itself from the competition not because it is more athletic or physically imposing than other teams, but because it does the little things right. Team-first players are hard to come by and this roster is chalk full of those kinds of guys. If you enjoy the nuances and intricacies of the game of basketball, as we do, there is no better team to watch at the D-III level. Enjoy.

The Panthers traveled to Bates and Tufts to begin conference play this weekend and came away with two wins by a total of 4 points, beating the Bobcats 59-56 and the Jumbos 70-69, and maintaining an undefeated record on the season.

In Lewiston on Friday, it was Bates’ defense keeping the game close, especially early, as Middlebury was held to 26 first half points. Bates played very physical in the paint, and the referees weren’t calling anything (first foul on either team was fifteen minutes in), making it tough going for Peter Lynch (4-9 FG) and company down low. On the other end, Middlebury’s guards had trouble sticking with Luke Matarazzo and Graham Safford on isolation drives to the hoop (with so few bigs, Bates often spreads the floor, taking away help defenders). The biggest concern, however, was that Middlebury was outrebounded 42-24 by a smaller Bobcats team, including 14-3 on the offensive boards. We knew Middlebury would regress on the boards without Ryan Sharry, but it has been worse than anybody expected. It’s on Jensen, Lynch, Roberts, and Merryman to turn this around.

Middlebury was able to maintain their slim lead in large part because of the play of their two star guards, Thompson and Kizel. Both were 5-9 from the field, scoring 13 and 17 points respectively. One of the most encouraging signs of the game was Middlebury’s final half-court possession of the game, when they needed a basket and Joey Kizel went isolation on his man and hit a step back jumper. We have discussed it here before, but Kizel is as good as it gets with the game on the line. Jake Wolfin (12 points) was the only other Panther in double figures, and hit some key free throws in the final minute. Hunter Merryman, who had been averaging nearly 13 points per game, was shut out in a lackluster seven minutes of play. Bates was led in scoring by Safford (14 pts) and freshman Mike Boornazian (12 pts).

Saturday’s game was even tighter, with Middlebury losing for most of the game. Middlebury’s offense was out of sync again early, putting up a 39% field goal percentage in the first half. While Nolan Thompson played great defense on Tufts’ leading scorer Ben Ferris (Ferris had four points today, the same total as last season; he has two career made field goals vs. Midd), the rest of the Middlebury defense struggled immensely. Tufts’ starting frontcourt–Tom Palleschi and Scott Anderson–combined for 23 points on 10-18 shooting in the first half. Midd’s bigs didn’t make up for their poor defensive showing either:  Lynch, Roberts, and Churchill (who got significant minutes early) combined for 4 points, 2 rebounds, and 5 turnovers in 29 first-half minutes. The Jumbos stretched their lead to 37-24 at one point in the first half before a pair of Middlebury threes shrunk the lead to seven heading into the break.

The second half started with more struggles for the Panthers, as the lead was extended to 43-30 in the first two minutes. Palleschi, the 6’8″ freshman, continued to pile on points in the second half, finding the basket in a variety of ways on his way to a game-high 27 points. Palleschi was able to score with post moves from six to eight feet away from the basket, hitting a few lefty hook shots and using his length to find shooting angles around the Middlebury defenders. He could make Tufts a much more complete team in the future.

Middlebury finally pulled together at about the 13-minute mark, down 52-39. A Nate Bulluck layup followed by a Jake Wolfin (13 points, 5-9 FG) three cut the lead to single digits before CJ Moss responded with a layup of his ownto bring it back to ten. In the next two minutes, Hunter Merryman scored eight points on 3-3 shooting as a part of a 10-6 Middlebury run. Middlebury finally started to score inside after that, hitting six layups and four free throws in the next two minutes, making it 70-65 visitors with two minutes to play. Tufts then made two unanswered field goals before Middlebury turned it over with under twenty seconds to go (a long pass from Wolfin to Jensen was errant), giving the Jumbos a chance for the outright win in regulation. Kwame Firempong drove to the hoop as the clock ticked under five seconds (Why wait? If you’re losing, you should shoot game-winner at :10 so you can foul and get another chance if you miss) and could not get a good shot off in traffic. Middlebury secured the rebound and won the game, slipping away from an ugly weekend with a still-perfect record.

When we predicted a Tufts win, we said it was because the Jumbos had the talent to beat a top-tier team, and that was evident Saturday. They have a lot of pieces and although they struggled to come together early in the season, their ceiling in any one game is high enough that they could be the sort of team that upsets one of the big three and makes a NESCAC tournament run this year.

Although the biggest concern this weekend was the post play, a more puzzling statistic was Kizel’s 2-6 showing from the free throw line Saturday, since he shot 91% from the stripe last season. Joey made up for it by leading the team in rebounds (9), assists (5), and steals (2). Here’s a telling statistic relating back to the struggles in the post: Middlebury’s starting backcourt (Kizel, Wolfin, Thompson) finished the game with 23 rebounds, while the rest of the players combined for six.

With the win, Middlebury now has a 40-game winning streak against NESCAC teams outside of Williams and Amherst. The Panthers host Connecticut College and Wesleyan next weekend and J-term should bring a strong crowd to Pepin as the Panthers look to remain undefeated.

 

This weekend Middlebury (9-0) travels to Bates and Tufts in the opening weekend of conference play. I’ve re-posted our pre-season notes on both of these games below, and added some new thoughts based on observations from the first trimester of the season.

Jan. 4: BATES (13-13, 5-5)
Details: Friday, 6:00pm (at Bates)
Last year: Middlebury 79-57
Though now without star forward John Squires, Bates is returning three of its top four players, led by 6’6” senior center Ed Bogdanovich (10.0 ppg, 7.5 rpg). The Bobcats boast two of the top young guards in the conference in junior Luke Matarazzo (8.1 ppg) and sophomore Graham Safford (6.8 ppg). This will be a tough atmosphere for Middlebury, as Bates is known for their home-court advantage, and the Panthers will have played only one game in the previous four weeks heading into this contest. That said, Middlebury matches up very well against this team. Nolan Thompson can shut down their top outside scorer, whether that be Matarazzo, Safford, or senior guard Mark Brust, and Pete Lynch has the strength to defend Bogdonavich down low.
Prediction: W (1-0)
Jan 3. Addendum: Bates is 5-7 against a mediocre schedule, and appears likely to remain in the lower-middle tier of the conference. Bogdanovich, Safford, Brust, and Matarazzo combine for 44 points per game, but Bates has little depth behind their big four (and their big four isn’t that great anyway: 40% combined FG), so Middlebury should handle them, and I don’t expect it to be close. The two players I will be watching are Mike Boornazian, a 6’5″ first-year who can score inside and out to the tune of 6.6 points per game and is leading the team in minutes off the bench, and Safford, the athletic sophomore guard who scored 19 points last season against Middlebury, and has improved his numbers across the board this year. From a Middlebury perspective, the top thing to watch for is Dylan Sinnickson’s possible return. The sophomore forward was seen warming up and this past weekend at home and looked sharp, but did not dress for the game. Based on that sneak peek, it seems he could make his season debut very soon.

Jan. 5: TUFTS (16-9, 6-4)
Details: Saturday, 2:00 pm (at Tufts)
Last year: Middlebury 82-69
Tufts’ stable of young talented guards will make Middlebury wish they were back in Lewiston, Maine. The Jumbos’ trio of sophomore C.J. Moss (7.2 ppg), junior Kwame Firempong (9.7 ppg), and sophomore Ben Ferris (9.6 ppg, 5.1 rpg) are all highly skilled and likely to grow together significantly this season. Ben Ferris put up Kizelian numbers in conference, shooting 55% from the field and 54% from three on his way to the NESCAC Rookie of the Year award. It’s easy to get distracted by the up-and-coming guards, but the leading scorer on this team last year was forward Scott Anderson (12.6 ppg, 6.6 rpg). Anderson is complemented by 6’7” junior Tom Folliard (6.9 ppg) in the frontcourt. This team is going to upset at least one of the big four (Williams, Amherst, Middlebury, Wesleyan) this season, and we think it will come early against a potentially-rusty Panthers team that will have only played two games in four weeks.
Prediction: L (1-1)
Jan 3. Addendum: Tufts got off to a very shaky start this year, losing 5 of their first 8, and now stands at a pedestrian 6-5 despite being hyped as the NESCAC up-and-comer in the preseason (at least by us). Top returning scorers Anderson and Firempong have regressed statistically, dropping from 22.3 to 17.1 combined points per game. Ferris has improved (12.5 ppg), although he hasn’t maintained the excellent efficiency numbers he put up in-conference last season. First-year Stephen Haladyna is the team’s bench spark, scoring 9.4 points in 17.6 minutes off the pine (50% FG, 44% 3PT), and has shown an impressive driving ability in the games we have watched. Despite the rough start, there are two strong reasons remaining that suggest Tufts can pull off the upset: First, the talent still exists. The emergence of Haladyna gives the Jumbos a very impressive top five (Ferris, Anderson, Firempong, Moss, Haladyna), a group that has not yet come together to reach its potential but in all probability will for stretches this season. This is the time of the year when those things often start to happen, and we imagine those guys spend a good portion of break working together to improve. Second, going down to Tufts for an early afternoon game after a late night in Lewiston Friday will be tough for a Middlebury squad that has only played one game in the past four weeks.

I will be at Bates this weekend, and likely watching the Tufts game online, so check out @MiddPantherBlog for updates and analysis.