General Reading Assignment for the Entire Class:
Bloom, David; David Canning and Gunther Fink, (2010) , “Implications of population aging for economic growth”, Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Vol. 26, No, 4, pp 583-612. (Consider only pp 583-592)
Provisional Agenda(To view the sources for a paper, click on the title. )
I. OPENING REMARKS
II. THE MACROECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF POPULATION AGING
“How Will Population Aging Affect Economic Growth
III. POPULATION AGING AND SAVING RATES
“Will Population Aging Bring a Second Demographic Divided?”
IV. POPULATION AGING, PUBLIC PENSIONS AND ASSET MARKETS
“Will Population Aging Destroy Public Pension Systems?”
V. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
Sources for Presentations:
II. THE MACROECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF POPULATION AGING
“How Will Population Aging Affect Economic Growth?”
Bloom, David; David Canning and Gunther Fink, (2010) , “Implications of population aging for economic growth”, Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Vol. 26, No, 4, pp 583-612. (Consider only pp 599-609) (PUT ON RESERVE.)
Gomez, R, and Hernandez de Cos, P., (2008), “Does Population Aging Promote Faster Economic Growth?”, Review of Income and Wealth, series 54, no. 3, pp. 350-371. (Condsider only pp 350-355 and page 369.) (Electronic Reserve)
MacKellar, Landis and David Horlacher, (2009) “Policy Implications of Population Aging”, in Japan Spotlight, March/April 2009, pp. 8-11. (Electronic Reserve)
Tichy, Gunther, (2008), “The Economic Consequences of Demographic Change: Its Impact on Growth, Investment and the Capital Stock”. Intervention, vol. 5, no. 1, pp. 105-128. (Consider only section 7 and pp. 121-123.) (Electronic Reserve)
Maestas, N. and J. Zissimopoulos, (2010), “How Longer Working Lives Ease the Crunch of Population Aging”, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 24, No. 1, Winter pp 139-160. (Consider only pp 139-145 and pp 156-158.) (Electronic Reserve)
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“How Will Population Aging Affect the Economy of Japan?”
Bloom, D and J. Finlay, (2009), “Demographic Changes and Economic Growth in Asia”, Asian Economic Policy Review, Vol. 4, pp 45-64. (Consider only pp 45-50 and pp 60-63.) (Electronic Reserve)
Eberstadt, N., (2012), “Japan Shrinks”, Wilson Quarterly, Spring, pp 30-37. (Electronic Reserve)
Horlacher, David E. and F. Landis Mac Kellar, (2003), “Population Ageing in Japan: Policy Lessons for South-East Asia”, Asia Pacific Development Journal, vol. 10, no. 1, (June 2003), pp. 97-122. (Consider only pages 97-114). (Electronic Reserve)
Clark, R.Ogawa, N.; Kondo, M. and Matsukura, R, (2010), “Population Decline, Labor Force Stability, and the Future of the Japanese Economy”, European Journal of Population, Vol. 26, pp. 207-227. (Consider only pp.207-213 and pp. 224-226.) (Electronic Reserve)
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III. POPULATION AGING AND SAVING RATES
“Should We Increase the National Savings Rate?”
Bernanke, B. (2006) “The Coming Demographic Transition: Will We Treat Future Generations Fairly?”, Federal Reserve Board Speech October 4, 2006. (Give special attention to pages 3-5 concerning the need to increase savings.) (Electronic Reserve)
Elmendorf, Douglas W. ; Sheiner, Louise M. (2000), “Should America Save for Its Old Age? Fiscal Policy, Population Aging, and National Saving,”, Journal of Economic Perspectives v14, n3 (Summer 2000): 57-74. (Electronic Reserve)
Pryor, Frederic L. (2003), “Demographic Effects on Personal Saving in the Future”, Southern Economic Journal v69, n3 (January 2003): 541-559. (Electronic Reserve)
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“Can Population Aging Bring a Second Demographic Divided?”
Lee, Ronald and Andrew Mason, (2006), “What is the Demographic Dividend?”, Finance and Development, Serptember 2006, pp. 16, 17.(Electronic Reserve)
Mason, Andrew and Ronald Lee, (2006), “Reform and Support Systems for the Elderly in Developing Countries: Capturing the Second Demographic Dividend”, Genus, Vol. 62, No. 2, April -June 2006 , pp. 11-35. (Omit pp. 16-18.) (Electronic Reserve)
Lee, Ronald and Andrew Mason, (2010), “Some Macroeconomic Aspects of Global Population Aging”, Demography Vol. 47-Supplement, S151-S172. (Consider only pp s166-s170.) (Electronic Reserve)
Bloom, David E; David Canning; Richard K. Mansfield and Michael Moore, (2007), “Demographic change, social security systems and savings”, Journal of Monetary Economics, vol. 54, pp 92-114. (Consider only pp 92-94 and p. 113) (Electronic Reserve)
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IV. POPULATION AGING AND MARKETS FOR LABOR AND ASSETS
“Will Population Aging Destroy Public Pension Systems?”
Bongaarts, John (2004), “Population Aging and the Rising Cost of Public Pensions”, Population and Development Review, Vol. 30, No. 1, March 2004, pp. 1-23. (Electronic Reserve)
Concaldi, Pierre, (2006), “Demography, the Cost of Pensions and the Move to Pension Funds”, Review of Political Economy, vol. 18, no. 3, pp. 301-351. (Consider especially section s 4 and 5, pages 306-310.) (Electronic Reserve)
Jackson, Richard, (2003), “The Global Retirement Crisis”, The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance, Vol. 27, No. 4 October, pp 486-511. (Electronic Reserve)
Kune, Jan B., (2009), “Population aging and the affluent society: the case of the Netherlands”, Pensions, vol. 14, no. 4, pp 231-241. (Electronic Reserve)
Turner, Adair, (2006), “Pension Challenges in an Aging World”, Finance and Development, September, pp. 36-39. (Electronic Reserve)
Ruggieri, J.; Zou, Y., (2007), “The fiscal burden of rising dependency ratios”, Population Research and Policy Review, vol. 26, pp. 185-201. (Consider only the Introduction on pp 185-186 and the the conclusions on pp. 195-196.) (Electronic Reserve)
Wray, L.R., (2006), “Social Security in an Aging Society”, Review of Political Economy, Vol. 18, no. 3, (Consider only sections 1, 2 and 3. Do not consider section 4.) (Electronic Reserve)
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“Will Population Aging Cause a “Meltdown” of Asset Prices?
Brooks, Robin (2002), “Asset-Market Effects of the Baby Boom and Social-Security Reform”, American Economic Review v92, n2 (May 2002): 402-406. (Electronic Reserve)
Brunetti, M. and C. Torricelli, (2010), “Demographics and asset returns: does the dynamics of population aging matter?:, Annals of Finance, Vol. 6, pp. 193-219. (Consider only the introduction, pp 193-196 and conclusions, pp. 216-217. (Electronic Reserve)
Kedar-Levy, H., (2006), “Can baby-boomers’ retirement increase stock prices?”, Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, vol. 46, pp. 284-299. (Consider only the first paragraph in section 1 and the last paragraph on page 286. Also Consider section 4 on pages 295 and 296.) (Electronic Reserve)
Poterba, James M. (2001), “Demographic Structure and Asset Returns”, Review of Economics and Statistics v83, n4 (November 2001): 565-584. (Electronic Reserve)
Poterba, James M. (2004), “Impact of Population Aging on Financial Markets in Developing Countries”, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Review, pp. 43-53. (Electronic Reserve)
Siegel, J. (2006), “The Boom Generation: Gray World”, Wall Street Journal Sep 20, 2006. pp 1-4 (See especially page 2.) (Electronic Reserve)
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Contents:
- Journalistic Articles
- Academic Articles
- Graphics
Academic Articles:
II. THE MACROECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF POPULATION AGING
“How Will Population Aging Affect the US Economy?”
“How Has Population Aging Affected the Economy of Japan?”
III. POPULATION AGING AND SAVING RATES
“Will Population Aging Bring a Second Demographic Divided?”
“Should We Increase our National Savings Rate?
IV. POPULATION AGING AND MARKETS FOR LABOR AND ASSETS
“Will Population Aging Drive up Labor Costs?”
“Will Population Aging Cause a “Meltdown” of Asset Prices?”
PowerPontsII. THE MACROECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF POPULATION AGING
“How Will Population Aging Affect Economic Growth
“How Has Population Aging Affected the Economy of Japan?”
III. POPULATION AGING AND SAVING RATES
“Will Population Aging Bring a Second Demographic Divided?”
“Should We Increase our National Savings Rate?
IV. POPULATION AGING, PUBLIC PENSIONS AND ASSET MARKETS
“Will Population Aging Destroy Public Pension Systems?”
“Will Population Aging Cause a “Meltdown” of Asset Prices?”