Allen Kelley
Will Population Growth delay or accelerate economic growth?
Topics to be Discussed
I. What growth models tell us
- Classical
- Keynesian
- Neoclassical
- Endogenous growth
II. What the data tell us
- Two variable correlations
- Finding
- Explanations
- Multi-variate studies
III. Population and the the Asian Miracle
- Modern technology
- Education
- Labor Force
- Saving
General Reading Assignment
Bloom, David and David Canning, (1998), “Cumulative Causality, Economic Growth and the Demographic Transition”, in Birdsall, Nancy; Kelley, Allen C.; Sinding, Steven W., eds. , (2001) Population matters: Demographic change, economic growth, and poverty in the developing world , Oxford and New York: Oxford University Press, 2001 Chapter 7, pp. 165-197. (Electronic Reserve) (REPLACE?)
Individual Reading Assignments
(Two-page report due on October 6)
| Group A | Group B | Group C | Group D | Group E |
Ashraf, Q.; Weil, D.; and Wilde, J. (2013), “The Effect of Fertility Reduction on Economic Growth”. Population and Development Review, Vol. 39, No. 1, pp97-130. (Consider only pp 97-106 and pp 123-125) (Electronic Reserve)
Galor, Oded and Mountford, A,. {2008), “Trading Population for Productivity: Theory and Evidence”, Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 75, pp. 1143-1179 (Consider only pp 1143-1145 and pp. 1169-1174.) (Electronic Reserve)
Hansen, Alvin, (2004) “Alvin Hansen on Economic Progress and Declining Population Growth”,Population and Development Review, Vol. 30, No. 2, pp. 329-342.(Electronic Reserve)
Coleman, D. and R. Rowthorn, (2011), “Who’s Afraid of Population Decline? A Critical Examination of its Consequences” Population and Development Review, Vol. 37 (Supplement) pp. 217-248.(Electronic Reserve)
Yu, Zhihao, (2011), “Demographic Dynamics and Economic Take-Off”, The Chinese Economy, vol. 44 no. 1, pp. 72-90. (Consider only pp 72-75, pp81 and pp 87-88). (Electronic Reserve)
Kelley, Allen C. and Robert M. Schmidt, (1996), “Toward a Cure for Myopia and Tunnel Vision of the Population Debate: A Dose of Historical Perspective” in The Impact of Population Growth on Well-Being in Developing Countries, Dennis A. Ahlburg, Allen C. Kelley and Karen Oppenheim Mason (editors), Springer Verlag, New York, 1996, pp. 11-35. (Electronic Reserve)
Heady, Derek, (2009), “The Effect of Population Growth on Economic Growth: A Meta-regression Analysis of the Macroeconomic Literature”, Population and Development Review, vol. 35, no. 2, pp221-248. (Consider only pp 221-224 and pp. 236-237.(Electronic Reserve)