Disclaimer: the purpose of this paper is to provide background information on this year’s topic and to supplement the content lectures, as well as, Masako’s project instructions.

Introduction:

Since the end of the cold war, the number of nuclear weapons has reduced significantly, and the roles of nuclear weapons in national security doctrines have diminished. These are important achievements in the field of nuclear disarmament. However, it is an unfortunate fact that the recent deteriorating international security environment and relations between nuclear weapons states, most notably between the United States and Russia, have heightened the risk of a new arms race. Most disturbingly, this dire situation has significantly increased the risk of nuclear use – either intentionally, or by miscalculation or accident – to levels not seen in more than three decades. The world we live in today apparently is headed in a dangerous direction, as opposed to the hope and prospects that the international community held at the beginning of the post-cold war era.

The Current Global Nuclear Status:

More than seven decades after their development and use during the Second World War, nuclear weapons, the most destructive weapons human beings invented, continue to be the basis for a number of states’ national security policies. More than a quarter century after the cold war, approximately 15,000 nuclear warheads remain in the arsenals of the countries that possess nuclear weapons. Of those, approximately 9,335 are in military stockpiles, of which approximately 3,750 warheads are actively deployed, and some 1,800 are on high alert and ready for use on short notice. ^[1]

The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) prohibits non-nuclear weapons states (NNWS) parties from developing nuclear weapons. The treaty, however, exempts five de jure nuclear-weapons states (NWS) (France, the People’s Republic of China, the Russian Federation, the United Kingdom, and the United States) from this ban. These five states had tested nuclear weapons before January 1, 1967, and under the NPT, are allowed to keep their nuclear weapons programs. This historical situation created two categories of states in the world: nuclear “haves” and “have-nots.” Critics of the NPT often point out the inherent discriminatory nature of the treaty. However, proponents of the treaty address this criticism by saying that the inequality is challenged in Article VI of the treaty, which legally obligates the five nuclear weapon states to eventually disarm.^[2][3]

To add to the controversy, some non-nuclear NPT members states claim NWS are not fulfilling their disarmament obligations despite demanding nonproliferation obligations from NNWS. Slow progress in nuclear disarmament caused frustration among non-nuclear weapon states, especially, non-aligned movement (NAM) countries, and civil society members who advocate for a world free of nuclear weapons. Since 2010, NAM countries and civil society members who advocate for nuclear disarmament have successfully pushed for the reframing of the debate on nuclear weapons to focus on their humanitarian impact and risk of use. They conclude that in the absence of adequate disarmament progress it is necessary to delegitimize nuclear weapons. This movement led to the adoption of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) on July 7^th, 2017. None of nuclear weapons possessing countries and nuclear weapons-relying countries have signed the Treaty. The Treaty will enter into force when 50 states have ratified the treaty. However, nuclear weapons states declared that they will never join the Treaty. This demonstrates that the international community is divided based on its approach toward nuclear disarmament.

Overview of the Current Nuclear Challenges:

Many people believe that the US administration under President Trump which started in January 2017 is one of the causes of the increasing nuclear dangers. The 2018 U.S. Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) gives insights into this trend of increased nuclear risk. The current US administration has placed a greater value on increasing the US nuclear weapons stockpile, while also creating more technologically advanced weapons, and more “usable” nuclear weapons, as a major part of its defense posture. Traditionally, the United States has taken the leadership role in arms control regardless of its political parties. However, the current US administration is retreating from its leadership role on nuclear arms control. It is fair to say that the 2018 US NPR is a departure from the traditional US nuclear weapons policy that placed more emphasis on arms control.

Other regions in the world, including the Middle East and East Asia also continue to pose nuclear threats. The US withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) (the multilateral efforts to contain Iran’s pathways to nuclear weapons program) in May 2018 is considered to be a significant setback in global nuclear nonproliferation. This US unilateral action could lead Iran to quickly return to developing its nuclear weapons program.^[4]

North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs have shown modest progress in recent months with a thawing of relations with South Korea as well as the historic Singapore Summit . However, despite North Korea’s claims of disarmament, there are many signs that their weapons programs have not been halted. The summit has not yielded substantive plans for denuclearization.

In the field of multilateral efforts for nonproliferation and disarmament, this year marks the 50th anniversary of the signing of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), the cornerstone of the international nuclear nonproliferation regime. While the treaty is not perfect given its discriminatory nature, the treaty’s contribution to prevent the proliferation of nuclear weapons should be well recognized. The 2020 NPT Review Conference will be held in the acrimonious international security environment mainly due to the reasons mentioned above. It will be a daunting task to forge consensus.

The adoption of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) on July 7, 2017 is one of the most important developments in the efforts toward a world free of nuclear weapons. However, opponents of the TPNW argue that the Treaty widened the division between NWS and NNWS. NWS argue that TPNW ignores existing nuclear risks. This divergence has complicated states’ ability to cooperate and form consensus on multilateral agreements on disarmament.

Specific issues:

The followings are some of the major developments that are impacting nuclear nonproliferation and disarmament regimes both globally and regionally in recent years. 

US-Russia Relations

Deteriorating diplomatic relations between the United States and Russia, the world’s largest nuclear weapons states, in recent years has led to a more volatile global security situation. In October of 2018, the US administration under President Donald Trump announced that the United States would withdraw from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) with Russia, accusing Russia of violations of the agreement. Many have argued that withdrawal from the INF will have significant negative consequences for arms control and disarmament, which would resume the new arms race between the two countries.

Moreover, the New START that was concluded between the United States and Russia in 2010 will expire in early 2021. Currently, there is no positive prospect that the two countries will have consultations to extend the treaty. If the New START expires and is not extended, for the first time since 1969, the two countries will be in the situation without an active arms control treaty. This will be a very dangerous situation in terms of the global nuclear weapons status.

US 2018 Nuclear Posture Review

The Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) states that the U.S. would not limit its use of nuclear weapons to defend against nuclear weapons, and includes “significant non-nuclear strategic attacks” as a justification for the use of nuclear weapons. Furthermore, the NPR also rejects the concept of a “no-first-use” policy, retaining the US’s right to resort to use nuclear force whenever it feels it is necessary. On the whole, the 2018 NPR, compared to previous ones, endorses a more expansive role for nuclear weapons, and proposes a substantial de-emphasis on arms control. Rather than reducing both roles and the number of nuclear weapons, this NPR indicates modernization and enhancement of nuclear weapons.^[5]  

North Korea

In the past few years, especially in 2017, North Korea’s nuclear and missile threats significantly increased. However, diplomatic thaw between North and South Korea under the newly elected South Korean President Moon Jaein who has pursued a policy of openness, helped facilitate an opening for diplomacy with the United States. The historic Singapore Summit between US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in June 2018 was a significant diplomatic breakthrough.  

The Trump administration has insisted that North Korea is already making progress towards denuclearization. However, despite North Korea’s claims of disarmament, there are many signs that their weapons programs have not been actually halted. North Korea continues to develop their ballistic missile program despite their pledge to cooperation and disarmament. There is still significant degree of uncertainties in terms of how and when, and if the actual denuclearization negotiation would start. No concrete nuclear deal including verification system between the United States and North Korea has been agreed upon.

US Withdrawal from JCPOA

In May 2018, the US administration made the decision to withdraw from the historic Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) which aimed to end Iran’s progress toward obtaining nuclear weapons. The JCPOA heavily limited Iran’s ability to enrich Uranium, an essential step in the creation of a nuclear weapon, and had been seen as a diplomatic breakthrough in U.S.-Iran relations, lending hope to the global effort to halt Iran’s nuclear program and ensure security in the region. The U.S.’s withdrawal from the agreement once again opened the door for Iran to pursue its nuclear ambitions, reigniting a political conflict which has raged for years. Moreover, Iran’s rival in the region of the Middle East, namely Saudi Arabia indicated that the country will follow suit if Iran acquires nuclear weapons capability. This would lead the collapse of the Nuclear Nonproliferation regime, and detrimental to regional and international security.

Possibility of Accidental Use of Nuclear Weapons

Possibility of the use of nuclear weapons, either intentionally or accidentally, remains one of the most serious threats to international peace and security. Since the end of the Second World War, a nuclear weapon has not been used at war. Hiroshima and Nagasaki remain the only cities to ever have been attacked with nuclear weapons. Countries that possess nuclear weapons tend to agree that the seventy-three years of no-use is evidence of effective nuclear deterrence. However, during the past seventy-three years, the use of nuclear weapons has been considered several times. Moreover, accidental launches of nuclear-tipped missiles have nearly happened.

The cooperation between states to prevent this type of instance is very important, however, reduction in diplomatic relations between states has complicated their ability to engage in such cooperation.

In the past, natural phenomena have artificially triggered the U.S. and Russia’s missile attack sensors, resulting in false alarms of nuclear attack. Fortunately, these false alarms did not result in the launch of actual nuclear weapons, but their occurrences add weight to the dangers posed by errors in the global nuclear infrastructure.

Digital technology of the modern day has added to the range of potential causes for accidental launches. The emergence of cyber-attacks as a tool poses a significant threat to states’ responsible and safe possession of nuclear weapons. New innovations and techniques are being produced in order to combat this threat; however, the field of cyber security remains a developing one and cannot always keep up with new methods of strategic exploitation of cyber technology. While digital technology and automation have replaced many tasks, human error remains a critical danger to nuclear security. Human oversights as well as technological malfunctions must be addressed in order to decrease the risk of accidental launch.

Challenges in Global Nonproliferation and Disarmament Regime

The global nonproliferation and disarmament regime is facing significant challenges due to a number of setbacks in nonproliferation and disarmament efforts. Particularly, the US unilateral withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, and the Intermediate Nuclear-Forces Treaty with Russia has left the global and regional nonproliferation and disarmament regime in dire condition. The looming new arms race between the United States could lead to the collapse of the current NPT regime as it would be considered the clear violation of the disarmament obligation under Article VI of the NPT.

Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW)

The starkest disagreement on pathways toward nuclear disarmament between nuclear weapons states and non-nuclear weapons states was culminated in the run- up to, and during the negotiations of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW). The fact that none of nuclear weapons states, as well as nuclear allied countries (with an exception of the Netherlands) participated in the negotiation clearly demonstrated the deep division in terms of pathways toward nuclear disarmament.

Still, the negotiations of the TPNW has renewed global disarmament efforts, and its adoption on July 7^th, 2017 is one of the most significant development in the recent nuclear disarmament history. The Treaty comprehensively banned the development and use of nuclear weapons, while providing assurance to signatories that others would abstain as well through collective action. 122 countries voted in favor of the Treaty, making it one of the most significant agreements within the global nonproliferation and disarmament regime.

Countries that rely on nuclear weapons for their security (nuclear possessing countries and countries under protection of the nuclear umbrella) and non-nuclear weapon states, particularly member states of the Non-Aligned Movement, have different views on how to achieve the peace and security of a world free of nuclear weapons. Generally speaking, Ban Treaty opponents belong to the former group, and Ban Treaty advocates to the latter group.

For advocates of the Ban Treaty, one of its most important contributions is the simultaneous stigmatization of nuclear weapons and the strengthening of norms against such weapons’ very existence. However, the Ban Treaty opponents criticize that the treaty deepens the division between nuclear weapon states and non-nuclear weapon states. Also, critics argue that the treaty completely ignores the current situation of international security. Moreover, they argue that the Ban Treaty does not contribute to nuclear risk reduction.

How CIF students will tackle this year’s topic:

This year’s CIF project challenges CIF students to study the current challenges and crisis surrounding nuclear nonproliferation and disarmament, nuclear risks threatening global and regional peace and security, and explore pathways to solve such nuclear challenges and crisis. Students will identify the current outstanding nuclear weapons-related issues including the possible new arms race between the United States and Russia, uncertain prospects on nuclear program in Iran due to the US withdrawal from the JCPOA, and uncertainty in ending North Korea’s nuclear and missile program due to unpredictable leadership in both countries despite the historical summit between the United States and North Korea. 

CIF students must also understand the implication of the US nuclear weapons policy, notably the new direction described in the 2018 Nuclear Posture Review. 

Students will also investigate the international diplomatic status over nuclear disarmament and nonproliferation such as when the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) will enter into force, and what the outcomes of the 2020 NPT Review Conference could be. When students consider these multilateral diplomacy, they need to take into consideration the current divided opinions related to pathways toward nuclear disarmament. Students will investigate non-nuclear weapons states’ dissatisfaction with existing nuclear nonproliferation and disarmament treaties such as the NPT, as well as nuclear weapons states’ opposition to the TPNW.

There are many challenges and crisis surrounding nuclear weapons issues that have significant impact on global nuclear nonproliferation and disarmament regimes. Students are expected to have a general understanding of these major nuclear challenges.

Then, students can select one or two specific issues they would like to further investigate in depth, and study possible pathways towards a solution, and how to mitigate global nuclear weapons crisis in this challenging international situation, and eventually, accomplish the goals of peace and security of a world free of nuclear weapons.  

Students must determine which urgent step(s) must be taken right now to prevent nuclear catastrophe, including the use of nuclear weapons both accidentally and intentionally.

Eventually students will come up with their own ideas based on their research and decide what is the best way to reduce the current nuclear risk, and pathways that lead to a world free of nuclear weapons.

To understand and examine these challenges and future prospects, it is important for CIF students to study the current world nuclear weapons situation, proliferation threats, and states’ policies toward nuclear nonproliferation and disarmament, as well as basic scientific aspects of nuclear weapons.

Based on these investigations, students will create their own assessment on how to mitigate the current nuclear crisis, and eventually, how to reach a goal of peace and security of a world free of nuclear weapons. Participants will examine this topic in CIF’s four content domains: scientific/environmental, social/cultural, economic, and political /geopolitical. Students will then present their own concrete proposal toward that goal.

^[1] Status of World Nuclear Forces, Federation of American Scientists. https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/

^[2] Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons on NTI website, http://www.nti.org/learn/treaties-and-regimes/treaty-on-the-non-proliferation-of-nuclear-weapons/

^[3] NPT Tutorial, NTI website, http://tutorials.nti.org/npt-tutorial/introduction

^[4] Kelsey Davenport, EU Moves to Block U.S. Iran Sanctions, Arms Control Today, June 2018 https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2018-06/news/eu-moves-block-us-iran-sanctions

^[5] Daryl G. Kimball, A dangerous Retreat From Disarmament Diplomacy, Arms Control Today, March 2018. https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2018-03/focus/dangerous-retreat-disarmament-diplomacy