Tag Archives: Rick Santorum

Santorum Surges, But Can He Win The Big One?

In the wake of Rick Santorum’s victory in the Minnesota and Colorado caucuses, and in the Missouri beauty pageant primary, the punditocracy has gradually begun to accept an argument you’ve heard me make since August: Mitt Romney is a weak frontrunner who has never demonstrated the capacity to win over the non-Mormon Tea Party-sympathizing conservative faction of the Republican Party. Sarah Palin, in her speech to CPAC yesterday, captured that sentiment quite well I thought.

The danger, however, is that pundits will now overreact by endowing Santorum with electoral strength that to date he has not demonstrated.  Keep in mind that Santorum has not won a single state in which participation rates among eligible voters climbed into double digits.   Indeed, as the following table shows, two of his three caucus victories came in events with participation rates under 2% (figures based on Michael McDonald’s election turnout website).  Turnout in Missouri’s largely meaningless primary, meanwhile, was the lowest of any primary state so far (and keep in mind that Gingrich’s name was not on the ballot there.)  In Iowa, the caucus state with the highest turnout, Santorum essentially spent half a year campaigning there.

STATE TYPE VOTES CAST %Eligible Population WINNER
Iowa Caucus 122,255 6.5% Santorum
New Hampshire Primary 249,655 31.1% Romney
South Carolina Primary 603,770 17.6% Gingrich
Florida Primary 1,672,352 12.8% Romney
Nevada Caucus 32,894 1.9% Romney
Minnesota* Caucus 47,696 1.2% Santorum
Colorado Caucus 65,535 1.8% Santorum
Missouri Beauty Pageant Primary 251,868 7.4% Santorum
Maine* Caucus 5,524* .5% Romney

*Denotes Estimates Based on Incomplete Results

It is true that Santorum is surging in the national polls. Indeed, the latest PublicPolicyPolling national poll has Santorum trouncing the Republican field with 38% of the vote to Romney’s 23%, Gingrich’s 17% and 13% for Ron Paul. Other polls indicate he has moved ahead of Gingrich nationally into second place. The RealClearPolitic’s composite polling tracker now shows Santorum’s average climbing to 24%, only 6% behind the leader Romney (Mitt=purple, Gingrich=green, Santorum=brown):

But we shouldn’t overreact to these national polls.  Rather than demonstrating deep-rooted support for Santorum, they are more likely reflecting voters’ current read of the race, as indicated by the prevailing media narrative. That is, respondents are answering the poll in terms of who they think is doing well according to the media coverage – not who they will necessarily support in upcoming events.

And it is those upcoming events that will test just how strong and widespread Santorum’s support is. After primaries in Michigan and Arizona on February 28, Republicans hold seven primaries on “Super Tuesday”, March 6.  Of those, three – Georgia, Tennessee and Oklahoma can be considered southern or southern-leaning states with large delegate hauls.  (Neither Santorum nor Gingrich qualified to be on the ballot in a fourth Super Tuesday state – Virginia.)   Why does this matter? Because as Mark Halperin notes, those “southern” states contain a high proportion of evangelicals, and – so far, at least – those southern evangelicals have been supporting Gingrich.  Here’s data compiled by Halperin showing the percent of white evangelical Christians vote, based on  2008 exit polls, in those states that will hold primaries in the next month.  Gingrich can be expected to more than hold his own in most of those states.

Two other Super Tuesday states – Massachusetts and Vermont – promise to go heavily for Romney.  This doesn’t leave much room for Santorum to break out of the pack.  Indeed, if voting trends hold among southern evangelicals, Gingrich, and not Santorum, is likely to come out of Super Tuesday with greater momentum as the Mitt-alternative. This despite the fact that the media has – again – largely written Newt out of this race.

This scenario makes it imperative for Santorum to do well in Michigan and, on Super Tuesday, to at least run competitively in Ohio – two rust-belt states in which Santorum’s more populist conservative message may resonate.  (Keep in mind that Romney runs weaker among social conservatives, not necessarily economic conservatives – at least not the higher income ones.) Gingrich, however, has already been barnstorming Ohio in the hope to win some delegates there.  Unless Santorum’s support begins to broaden as a result of last Tuesday’s victories, I still don’t think he’s well positioned to win the nomination.

This is all a long way of reiterating a point I made after Tuesday’s results:  Mitt Romney remains a very weak frontrunner – one who can be beat, but only if conservative Tea Party-supporting Republicans settle on an alternative. At this point, it’s not obvious to me that Santorum is that person.  To convince me otherwise, he needs to win a big-state primary.  He’s got two weeks to make that happen.

Perry Endorses, Newt’s Divorces, and Santorum’s Remorses

Since I posted this morning, four more South Carolina polls have come in, three of which were in the field entirely after Monday’s debate.  Each of the three most recent polls has Newt in the lead, albeit within the polls’ margin of error.  Note that all three are automated polls, which may or may not be significant. Mark Halperin conveniently summarizes them for us at his Pollster.com website:

As you can see, they support my earlier assertion that Newt has pulled into a de facto tie with Mitt two days before Saturday’s South Carolina primary.  Note that Newt has pulled even despite the fact that Romney’s support is holding pretty steady.  This is really a case of the late deciders all breaking for Newt after Monday’s debate.  If the trend lines hold, Gingrich is poised to eke out a narrow victory, which would put a crimp in the pundits’ prevailing narrative.

But that’s a big “if” given two additional developments since I posted.  First, Rick Perry gave a strong endorsement for Newt, saying, “I believe Newt is a conservative visionary who can transform our country. We’ve had our differences, which campaigns will inevitably have, and Newt is not perfect, but who among us is?”  As I indicated this morning, I don’t think this will provide a huge boost to Newt’s likely support, although even a modest boost may be critical in a close race.  But what it does do is provide some political insulation for Newt against any fallout from today’s second big story:  ABC’s interview with Gingrich ex-wife Marianne (the second one).  Among the explosive allegations purportedly contained in the interview, perhaps none is bigger than the report that Newt asked Marianne for an “open marriage” so that he could be with Callista (now his third wife) without divorcing Marianne.  It’s hard to say what impact, if any this story will have.   Obviously this steps on the Perry endorsement, which is not great news for Newt, but will it actually cost him votes?  I suspect it will give some social conservatives pause – but I simply don’t know how many will reconsider supporting Newt.  My gut says not many – the same gut that said Rick Perry would be a strong candidate, mind you.

In this regard, a greater proportion of women than men are undecided about Newt’s candidacy, according to the latest polls.  On the other hand, there’s the possibility that conservatives will seek this as a thinly veiled plot by the “liberal” media to destroy Newt’s candidacy.  And, of course, there will be the inevitable questioning of Marianne’s motives – why now?  What’s in it for her?  Who is really behind the story?  I don’t pretend to know the answer to any of these questions, but I’m pretty sure it will come up in the form of a question at tonight’s debate.   If so, Newt has to turn the other cheek with his response.  He should avoid questioning Marianne’s motives at all costs, and indeed mentioning her at all.  Instead, he should repeat the Christian mantra: “I am not worthy. I ask for forgiveness.”  Then he should remind voters it happened a long time ago, and proceed to wax eloquent about his wife, his grandchildren and his new found maturity.  He should finish by saying, “Rick Perry was right when he endorsed me today. I’m not perfect.  None of us are.”

Keep in mind that neither Santorum nor especially Romney can bring this issue up on their own, but they will certainly be given the opportunity to pile on. Romney in particular has to be careful in this regard – he can’t look like he’s trying to score points at Newt’s personal expense.  A simple, “it’s something each voter must think about in her heart” will suffice. Then he damn well better go on the offensive about all of Newt’s other baggage:  immigration, ethics violation, Fannie Mae, etc.

On any other day, of course, the big story would be the belated acknowledgment that Rick Santorum had won in Iowa (don’t give me any of the media’s CYA “virtual tie” crap).  Poor Rick!  As it is his poll numbers have been dropping, and this may well be his last debate.  At this point there’s not a lot he can do to reverse those numbers, I don’t believe, short of major gaffes by Newt and Mitt.  Paul, meanwhile, has to make sure his medication kicks in in time to prevent him from going on one of his Wacky Uncle diatribes regarding currency, the Fed and how we are going to withdraw into Fortress America, with defense bases dotting the countryside.  He needs to stick with what got him here: deficit reductions, spending cuts and LIBERTY!  Although, as I look at the polling numbers, I think his core support is so solid that he’s relatively immune to any fallout from a weak debate performance.  Indeed, what I consider weak may not even matter to Paul’s true believers.  He’s going to get his 15%, medication or not.

I’ll be on at 7:50 for the live blog.  It promises to be a good one. Please join in….

 

The Last Shall Be First? Santorum’s Polling is Biblical

I’m not sure what to make of this just released We Ask America poll, but I pass it along simply because it is the first poll conducted covering the last 24 hours. The most notable finding is that Santorum is now alone in second at 17%, with Paul (14%) now essentially bunched in a group that includes Gingrich (13%) and – surprise! – Bachmann (12%).  Although pundits have declared her candidacy dead, here she is ahead of Perry  (10%) and within striking distance (given the 7% undecided) of a top-three finish.   All of which makes me somewhat skeptical that this poll is very accurate . Note that they don’t release any polling internals, except to say that they have surveyed “Republicans”.  If it is only Republicans, and does not include independents or Democrats, it may be understating Paul’s support.  In any case, without more information,  I have no way to evaluate it.  So, with that cautionary note, here are the topline results.

Candidate

Bachmann  12%

Gingrich 13%

Huntsman 4%

Paul 14%

Perry 10%

Romney 24%

Santorum 17%

Undecided 7%

At this point, I’m waiting on three last polls: the Des Moines Register, which will come out tomorrow night, and polls from ABC/WashingtonPost  and CBS/NY Times.

It’s interesting how the media has been reporting these latest polling results. There’s been much talk that if Romney wins Iowa, and takes New Hampshire, he could close out this nomination race in a hurry.  Perhaps, but keep this in mind.  If Romney’s current polling numbers hold, he will win Iowa with the lowest winning total in this caucus – Republican or Democrat – since it began back in 1972.  That, to me, doesn’t inspire much confidence in a Romney sweep, particularly as the field is winnowed and support begins to coalesce behind his opponents.

Here are the previous Iowa caucus winners and their vote percentages, as listed in Wikipedia (so I can’t vouch for the accuracy of these figures).

Democrats

Republicans

Bob Dole, in 1996, is perhaps the closest parallel to Romney today – and we all know how that turned out!  Although he did win the nomination, he didn’t do so well in the general election.

Addendum (5:28 p.m.): It appears that PPP will run one more survey beginning Sunday into Monday.  Meanwhile, I’m not certain that either WaPo/ABC or CBS/NYTimes are going to field one more Iowa survey.  So at this point I know there’s at least two more polls coming out before Tuesday.

Will It Be Santorum? In Iowa, Timing is Everything – the latest Poll

In politics, as in life, timing is often everything.  A second Iowa poll has just been released, and it suggests that conservatives in Iowa may be  – I stress may be, since this is one poll – coalescing behind Rick Santorum.  This poll, conducted by ORC on behalf of CNN, is based on telephone interviews with 452 likely Republican caucus participants, and was in the field from December 21-24 and December 26-27.  (The sampling error +/-4.5 percentage points.)  As the following table shows, it has Romney leading with 25%, followed by Paul at 22%.  The big surprise is that Santorum has climbed into third with 16%, which statistically ties him with Gingrich.

Romney 25%
Paul 22%

Santorum 16%
Gingrich 14%
Perry 11%
Bachmann 9%
Huntsman 1%
Someone else (vol.) *
None/ No one (vol.) *
No opinion 2%

Santorum’s rise in this poll seems to be fueled by the anti-Mitt and anti-Paul groups I discussed in my previous post – that is, social conservatives and Tea Party activists. Among those who self-identify as “born again” Santorum leads all candidates with 24% support. Among “conservatives” he is in a statistical tie with Romney (22% to Santorum’s 21%) at the top.  Note, however, that in contrast to the PPP poll, this survey does not appear to include self-identified moderates or Democrats, although it’s hard to tell for sure because explicit breakdowns by party or ideology are not provided.  Still, it is the first evidence we have that conservatives may have decided that Santorum is this year’s Huckabee.

If so, it would be only fitting; Santorum is the only Republican competing in Iowa who has not experienced a surge in support.  If, in fact, conservatives have now decided to coalesce behind him, his timing is impeccable, since a surge at this late date will not provide time for candidates or their shadow SuperPacs to reorient their negative message machine against him.

In terms of issues, perhaps the most interesting finding coming out of the poll is the number (60%) citing the deficit as the most important economic issue, trumping both jobs (20%) and taxes (13%).  These are not Romney conservatives, for the most part.

What is most startling about this poll, however, is that with just six days to go, fully 43% of those polled say they may still change their mind!  At the same time, however, there are significant blocs of voters who say they won’t support specific candidates under any circumstances; 35% say they won’t vote for Romney, 36% say they won’t vote for Bachmann, 39% won’t support Newt and 41% won’t support Paul.  Interestingly, however, only 25% say they won’t vote for Perry. (Unfortunately, for some reason Santorum wasn’t included in this question!)

So, where do things stand?  It appears that caucus goers may be sorting themselves into three voting blocs: “establishment” Republicans who back Romney, libertarians who support Paul, and social conservatives who are the biggest bloc, but who are still working on that coordination problem.  I think it’s pretty clear that despite the drumbeat of support by the party establishment, Romney has come close to maxing out in Iowa – indeed, it’s not clear he’ll even match his total from four years ago.  (I’ll have another post on how the pundits are missing the story with him in a bit.)  It also appears that Paul may have hit his ceiling. With six days to go,who wins Iowa may depend on just how quickly and thoroughly social conservatives move toward a single candidate.  Is it Santorum? If so, that may finally change his google, er, issue!

P.S. 6:14 p.m. I hope everyone appreciates that I’ve avoided stooping so low as to engage in the obvious Santorum word play regarding his polling move from behind….how he’s come from the rear of the pack …. ok, never mind.

P.S.S.  As I look through the internals of the CNN/ORC poll, it does seem they don’t include any non-Republicans in their survey, in contrast to the PPP poll.  That explains why Santorum can be third in one poll, but trailing the field in the other one. Just another reminder that who turns out next Tuesday makes all the difference in the world.