Tags » presidential forecast

I Can Read Faces! My Wager On The Election Results

On the eve of Election Day, I am a happy man.  Why is this, you ask?  Because the fundamentals-based forecasts issued by almost a  dozen political scientists before Labor Day are – in the aggregate – looking remarkably prescient. The … Continue reading

Dickinson and Silver, Take Two

Whether he did so out of frustration or some other emotion, I want to thank Nate Silver for taking time from his busy schedule to respond (twice!) to my critique of poll-based forecasting models similar to his.  This type of … Continue reading

Pay No Attention To Those Polls (Or To Forecast Models Based On Them)

Brace yourselves. With the two main party nominees established, we are now entering the poll-driven media phase of presidential electoral politics.  For the next several months, media coverage will be dominated by analyses of trial heat polls pitting the two … Continue reading