Tag Archives: incumbency advantage

Fenno’s Paradox, or Why You Should Ignore That Poll That Says We Hate Our Member of Congress

This WashingtonPost/ABC poll finds that, “for the first time ever”, a majority of those surveyed disapprove not just of Congress, but of their own member of Congress.  What does this portend for the fall midterm election?  As I write in my latest U.S. News post here, it probably means a lot less than some pundits would have us believe.  A rough back-of-the-envelope statistical guesstimate based on past results to this question suggests roughly 87% of incumbents will still win reelection this fall.  If you want to know why, Richard Fenno explained it all back in 1972.