Tags » forecast models; 2012 presidential election

The Media and the 2012 Election: Taking the “Fun” Out of the Fundamentals?

Although the next presidential election is more than two years away, pundits are already trying to parse the meaning of polling data even though trial heats polls this far in advance of the election are practically worthless. The same goes … Continue reading

The Big Winner Last Night? Political Science!

For a political scientist, last night’s outcomes were very, very satisfying.  To begin, viewed in the aggregate, the structural-based forecast models issued by last September hit the two-party popular vote share almost exactly on the head, as of this moment.  … Continue reading

Different Forecast, Same Result: More Political Science Models

Politico’s Dylan Byers created a minor dust-up in the twitterverse today when he posted an article that appeared to take a shot at the New York Times’  Nate Silver’s prognosticating skills. Byers writes, “Prediction is the name of Silver’s game, … Continue reading